Russia - threadbanned users in OP

DialecticAspirations

I'm curious about something.

What do people here think the likely outcome of the war is going to be?

1. Ukraine victory
2. Russian victory
3. Ongoing stalemate / never-ending war
4. Eventual permanent ceasefire / peace agreement.
5. Something else

If it's 4), then how could this be accelerated/brought forward so as to minimise further loss of life?

(Apologies to mods if this shouldn't be in this thread - please move/delete if that's the case)

zv2

Some questions to be asked here-

https://twitter.com/RealCharlesRay/status/1787492917688385570

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

Peace would involve Russia ending their war. Putin has made it clear that his concept of peace is completing the invasion.

strathspey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

I think it's going to lead to the bankruptcy and breakup of ruZZia, on a similar scale to what happened to the USSR…..history has a habit of repeating itself. The question we should be asking ourselves is, how can we in the West hasten this process.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103065#Comment_122103065

Yeah one thing that has been consistent since March 2022 - whenever the Russians start sabre-rattling about nuclear weapons then the tide is turning against them. There wasn't much mention of them this year, since things were going ok for them on the ground in Ukraine but as soon as the big US aid bill passed a few weeks ago they've back at it.

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

I think it will turn out as option 1. but the amount of damage done to Ukraine by putin's terrorists may make it difficult to appreciate as a victory to those who have had to suffer being neighbours to putin's empire. The losses in putin's forces are just not sustainable in the longer term.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

5. Same thing that happens to authoritarian Russian leaders who get silly notions and start stupid expansionary wars of colonial conquest, collapse

Happened in Afghanistan, and before around WW1 and before during the Crimean war ( fun fact this war already has more Russian dead than that war)

They also came very close in WW2 to losing despite kicking off the war with invasions of Finland, Romania and then Poland (never forget they allied to Hitler!), but got saved but allied lend lease and pressure being taken off elsewhere both in pacific and Italy/North Africa and then France

Virgil°

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

What are your opinions on it? Interesting that you picked out 4) as the one to focus on….

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

I've been of the opinion, since the summer offensive petered out last year, that this is going to become like Korea with no peace treaty but a heavily fortified line cutting through Ukraine, roughly along where the battle lines are now - give or take 10-20km in either direction. The fact that the Ukrainians have been digging their own heavily fortified trenches recently only reinforces that opinion.

It just seems to be really really difficult to breach a well fortified minefield in the era of ever advancing drone technology. The Ukrainians hit that wall last summer and I think the Russians will face the same problems when the Ukrainian defensive lines are complete.

The Russians will likely continue to fire long range missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities behind the front lines and the Ukrainians will likely continue to target strategic infrastructure in Russian proper with their own drones but I think eventually these too will become less frequent and probably less effective as defenses improve on both sides.

Neither side will admit that it's a stalemate but that's probably what it will be like - much like as in the Donbas from 2014-2022.

The only way that either side gets to realise their official aims (Ukraine - regaining all their pre-2014 territory; Russia - regime change in Ukraine) is if the other country collapses which doesn't appear to be likely anytime soon in either case.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103607#Comment_122103607

they “just asking questions” 😉 no harm

Tho #4 is nonsensical as Russia and Putin has a long long history especially when it comes to this war in not adhering to ceasefire and agreements and treaties

The only way #4 would work is if there are NATO troops and nuclear weapons in Ukraine to prevent Putin from breaking any treaties yet again

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103607#Comment_122103607

Peace talks/negotiations have more latterly been a feature of Kremlin spin, with a sideorder of "saving lives". It's trying to appeal to the more measured western mind(rather than the usual fringes) by sounding conciliatory and "reasonable". With the "I'm only asking questions™ angle of course.

Now Russia could save lives Ukrainian and Russian in the morning by fcuking off back across their borders, but that's not going to happen. Paranoia, an oft large sniff of cultural insecurity and a puzzling lack of self awareness re their imperial mindset simply wouldn't allow for it.

And as I've pointed out before; under a 150 people died in the last three years of the Donbas war. The tens of thousands dead since '22 are entirely on Putin's head. "Saving lives" indeed…

Plus the Kremlin hasn't exactly a great record in respecting treaties so there's that. The only way I can see them sticking to any peace plan that comes along is forcing them to. They'll push for demilitarisation of Ukraine(they talk about this a lot in their "reasons" for the war), but that should be a hard nyet and however "shove it up your arse" translates into Russian.

As for how this pans out? I'll go back to my position from early on(after Ukraine pushed Russia back from Kiev etc) which is Crimea remains in Russian hands. That's a given imho, unless the Russian empire folds in on itself. Secondly they'll almost certainly keep the land bridge between the bits of Donbas they have and Crimea. Whatever chance Ukraine had of breaking that up has imho passed. The Russian military was shambolic for much of this war, but now they're dug in and holding that will be far easier than taking it back.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103647#Comment_122103647

Nukes are a useless deterrent. If Russia took the notion to invade a country with nukes then you can be pretty sure that country would not nuke Russia as it would mean getting obliterated itself.

Nukes are only a deterrent if you have enough to blow up your enemy and all their allies and are mad enough to do it without hesitation.

A good detterent however, would be an extremely good missile system that could immediately attack any convoy of troops that breech your border and a DMZ to make any advance improbable. Ukraine will probably need a 2km dead zone all along whatever border they end up with against Russia when this is all over, full of thick forest, trenches and remotely detonatable buried explosives.

jmreire

And in celebration of "Victory Day".. and at 519'000 rubles, its a snip (€5262.66)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1787501625134719215

Avatar in the Post

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

I also agree with option 4. And as it will only ever likely happen when Putin is getting pineapples stuck his ars* by Beelzebub that means when Putin is dead.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

I think its 3. The children of the children born today in Ukraine will grow up hating Russia, and vice versa with Russians. The war will have periods of ceasefire, but no permanent peace is possible until there is a dramatic change in Russia society and politics.

How do you imagine peace would look like?ANd on what terms?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

If it's 4), then how could this be accelerated/brought forward so as to minimise further loss of life?

By maximising Russian loss of life. Unfortunately there is no other way.

zerosquared

something bad must be happening to Russians in east

They throwing all the toys out of pram today

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-it-can-strike-british-military-targets-after-cameron-remarks-2024-05-06/

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1786808353391354324

Darth's take on a "Peace Formula"

zv2

....

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

Ahem… says he. I'm also curious about something…. more to with your history rather than Russia.

zerosquared

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/05/06/russian-journalist-charged-with-justifying-terrorism-for-writing-about-the-taliban-en-news

Where Tucker Carlson

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122104296#Comment_122104296

Surely just the usual well worn by now 'keep your noses outa our business' routine.

The pressure is going to ratchet up if Ukraine keeps its nerve.

The Kremlin foresees it's own demise.

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103404#Comment_122103404

1 and 2 don't seem too likely, as neither side is significantly stronger than the other. I don't see Ukraine getting back their territories by force, and I believe Russia lost the war when they launched their invasion - so they can't win either.

3 is the current situation. 4 won't be possible unless Russia will reach a state where they can't keep up the invasion, but I don't think that's in cards in the very near future. 5 would probably mean WW3, who knows.

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103607#Comment_122103607

To match their post count, obvs!

Nothing like a new/re-reg to start talking about peace through another agreement Russia won't honour.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122103514#Comment_122103514

Which part of history though?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Paris_%281814%29

https://www.rferl.org/a/treaty-of-riga-1921-disaster-poland-ukraine-belarus-lithuania/31156317.html

Say my name

We now live in an internet age where people get kicks from winding other people up.

http://twitter.com/RMcGreevy1301/status/1787524093215924386

Exhibit A - People in Ireland filming a row of cars with USSR flags and flags supporting the Russian invasion in an obscure business park in Dublin on a Bank holiday Monday. In russia they obscure their faces in case they be recognised and identified in further operations. In Ireland they are not that clever instead just following orders from the Russian embassy and hoping they may get 5 minutes of fame in the online world and hoping everyone that doesn't stand for what they do will be outraged. It's a sad pathetic existence. Hopefully and it looks fairly sure now the Irish authorities will be able identify everyone at the Putin funeral cortege in Dublin and put black marks against their names now for all of their existence.

Padre_Pio

I think the US or NATO will get involved directly or indirectly, such as reinforcing Ukraine's quieter borders or being present in Ukrainian cities to deter missile attacks.

I don't think the international community would be pleased with a stalemate or redrawing borders.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://english.nv.ua/nation/media-reported-two-red-lines-that-can-force-nato-to-join-the-war-in-ukraine-50415869.html

Everyday the narrative that NATO won't take anymore of russias bullsh*t is reinforced

purplepanda

As I've said on this thread before, a future Ukraine without proper unrestricted access to the Black Sea & Sea of Azov is defensively unviable. That means Russian military concessions of territory currently held along the Mariupol - Melitopol coast. Plus a complete partition of the Crimean peninsula, alongside Korean style UN DMZ zones, full NATO & EU membership with stationing of NATO forces in a future Ukraine.

Donbas region military frontier has remained largely unchanged since 2014, so perhaps that's an outside possibility of concessions to Russia. However I can't see Ukraine giving up the rest of the Azov sea coast in a settlement.

Neither side is ready for such any such compromise so the conflict goes on for many years yet.

I predict we will still have the Tankie vermin calling for "peace" which always amounts to the complete subjugation of the Ukranian nation & people, enslaved to Russia.

zerosquared

We should be careful it starts with flags and Zwastikas and ends with Putin invading to “save Russian speakers”

https://www.reddit.com/r/Dublin/s/V7SmP1Etn0

https://twitter.com/HotSotin/status/1787560872488944087