Russia - threadbanned users in OP

The 35 mm Oerlikon cannons have been around for decades as anti aircraft gun system, the latest skynex version was designed for the German Navy ships , but can be mounted to trucks or on semi permanent ground installations,

Rheinmetall is making serious sales pitch over the last 12 months with there efforts in Ukraine and elsewhere

Watching the change of attitude of the German government (and the GOP-ian reaction of Germany's muscovite stooges) I've also been wondering if those Germans with a good sense of capitalism know that the very best investment they can make now is literal boots on the ground in Ukraine. I suspect they've realised that they can easily switch their now-embargoed dealings with Russia to the same-but-different Novorossiya/Ukraine.

If that's the case, then Putin should realise that he's in a hell of a lot more trouble than his generals are (not?) telling him: it would suggest that decisions have already been made in the shadows of the corridors of power that Ukraine will be joining the EU and will be joining NATO, and no washed out KGB agent is going to stop it now.

Governments and policy can change depending on public opinion, the US might be able to make the printing presses go whrrrr, not so much in the EU. A lot of people are going to balk at an opened obligation like this. Its not like the EU is on a financial roll , I dont think it would take much to shift public opinion when it comes to paying a price.

And I guess that since Iran, China, N Korea et al, are supplying these weapons, they are getting paid for them (and they are not exactly cheap, and none of the A/M Countries are notable for their charitable endeavor's) Putin's piggy bank is running low at this point, and at some stage this arms supply will dry up too.

The situation for Europe here is very different to the US. What is the potential cost to Europe/the EU of Ukraine being turned into a failed state, destroyed or even occupied by Russia I wonder? No idea how to calculate that one, maybe you do?

What is the cost to Europe if we have a situation where Putin believes he has gained far more evidence the will won't be there to oppose him if or when he decides to gamble on stability of NATO and the value of US promises to members in coming years?

Yes, a low likelyhood event, but one with human and material costs for Europe that would be staggering. Waging war on your own terrirtory is very bad (see Ukraine), no matter how it turns out in the end, and will make the cost of aid given to Ukraine now (+ costs of rebuilding the EU members militaries etc. to Cold War levels) look miniscule.

So that's another no you can't ,.

So you cannot counter anything he's said typical low level account stuff

This is where I think there's a shift in the German attitude. It looks to me like the serious players in the German economy have moved beyond the question of "what's the cost of having Ukraine as a failed state?" to "how much profit can we make in having Ukraine as a successful European state?"

This is not something that particularly concerns the USA, so they have no reason to make it happen any faster than might be the "natural" course of events. But if Big Business in Germany (and other parts of the EU) has decided that it is to Europe's advantage to have access to Ukraine's natural, agricultura and human resources, over and above any inconvenience of pissing off the Russians, then Europe still has the clout to make that happen.

With memories of the Covid disruption to Asian supply chains on the one side, and the threat of Trumpian isolationism on the other side, this is a very good time for Europe to invest in "local" projects. Sure, there's money to be made in producing and selling arms to armies of varying colours, but there's a hell of a lot more money to be made in re-building a country and an economy like Ukraine.

If that decision has been made, private capital will make it happen faster than any amount of Congress-dependent drip-fed aid packages.

Thats an interesting take,,,Russia wants Trump, but the Chinese don't.... fun times ahead !! 😂

Putin has been attacking the West, the US, Australia, in fact anyone or Country he deems an "enemy" for many years ( inc NATO, actually especially NATO) . Not openly though, all deniable stuff. Massive hacking operations worldwide, using submarines to map undersea communications and oil / gas pipes, (and possibly planting remote controlled explosives on them) pumping cash into radical groups to de-stabilize democratic Countries, mass propaganda to interfere wilt elections. It's a long list of possibilities, and Putin ticks all the boxes. He's the original bad apple in the box that rots the rest of them.

I don't see it now.

I do see probability of a Russian test of NATO increasing in a situation where you have (post the collapse of US/EU will to support Ukraine + this resulting in some kind of Russian "success" there, I suppose size of this success determines the danger level...):

• Team MAGA running USA (into the ground)
• EU hamstrung, members at each others throats (i.e. dumbfuck far right governments in most countries or even just a few key ones) and
• Key EU member states (and UK I suppose) have also failed to rearm at all (arguments of what-a-bout the budget, what-a-bout spending it on better things than stuff to kill people and blow things up win the day).

So a fair few stars probably have to align for it, as said a low likelyhood event with a very high cost. Safer to support Ukraine and rearm imo.

What do you think he's been doing for the last 10 or more years , assasinations , "accidents", buying politicans and radicals , left and right , destabilizing states, sure its a long game, but you wait for the opportunity,

2014 crimea and donbass ,was decades of work leading to an opportunity,

oh but ukraine has a security pact with uk and US,and their neutral , - fat lot of good that did them ,