Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519901#Comment_118519901

As I said they will still wipe the floor with several other militaries combined.

I don't think you a real grasp of Afghanistan and elsewhere ,

But remind us about Russias involvement in Afghanistan

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118518255#Comment_118518255

While this would be ideal in the long run (for climate change reasons if nothing else) is this practical immediately? I suspect that it is not and hence why the Germans are so reluctant to engage in the same punitive measures of Russia as countries who aren't as reliant on Russian gas (ie USA & UK).

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118520691#Comment_118520691

Sounds like Austria has interests in Nord Stream 2 also and seem a bit reluctant.

https://nordot.app/857921175059677184

Pa ElGrande

Our governments and those who control them may want to thread carefully because the culmination of the ongoing dispute and various other policies will affect the availability and price of food. For instance a client state of Russia, Belarus produces 20% of the worlds potash. The big 4 nutrients for plant growth are nitrogen, potassium, phosphate, magnesium all used in general fertiliser.

• Strike in Belarus by Potash Miners Pressures President, Clouds Commodity Market

August 17, 2020

JSC Belaruskali controls up to 20% of the global supply in potash, meaning any extended strike action or disruption at the company could impact prices of a commodity widely used by farmers to help plants grow. The state-owned mining company is also a pillar of Belarus’s economy and a major source of taxes and foreign currency, making it important for Mr. Lukashenko.

So far there seem to be loopholes in the sanctions that have dented the impact but not the prices which are up

• Belgium Is Pushing to Dilute the EU’s Belarus Potash Sanctions

October 19 2021

• Bark But Little Bite? Sanctions Don't Appear To Put Brakes On Trade Between EU And Belarus

January 10, 2022

Lithuanian companies continue to ship Belarusian potash products, a key ingredient in fertilizer, through its rail network and port of Klaipeda to markets in the EU and elsewhere, despite the Belarusian state-run potash giant, Belaruskali, being sanctioned. The continuing trade with the Lukashenka regime has sparked a scandal in Lithuania, with even calls for the government to step down.

Lithuania is not alone. Fresh data shows that trade between the EU and Belarus almost doubled in 2021, triggering some to question whether Western sanctions are strong enough, including the exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who says Lukashenka has exploited "loopholes" to circumvent them.

<snip>

However, at least one economist has questioned the degree to which trade between the Baltic nations and Belarus has increased, chalking up the higher numbers to a rise in commodity prices.

"Knowing what is imported from Belarus in general, they are mainly goods whose prices have risen very, very rapidly during 2021. They are timber, fertilizer, and fuels. Even if, in terms of physical volume, imports remained unchanged, the amounts could indeed be much higher last year, in terms of money," Peteris Strautiņs, an economist at the Luminor Latvija bank, said in comments to Latvian public radio on January 5.

Now look at the issue of nitrogen availability and supply, since the current disruption to fertilizer production and pricing is one hundred per cent policy driven, the past decadal move to random energy has increased the demand for natural gas and it is a key ingredient in fertiliser production during the Haber process.

• Fertiliser in the firing line as Department to focus on reduction to meet emissions targets

January 19, 2022

“We have set out objectives in terms of reducing nitrogen usage overall by 20% - it may have to be reduced further.

“This will be done by reducing fertiliser usage, changing fertiliser type, etc. Those will all contribute to that.

“If we were to take a pro-rata expectation, we would have to be delivering something close to two megatonnes in the first budgetary period to contribute to the overall economy-wide commitment of 51%.”

The Climate Action Plan 2021 outlines that chemical nitrogen use on Irish farms must be reduced to a target level of 350,000 tonnes by 2025, with a further reduction to an absolute maximum of 325,000 tonnes by 2030.

• Russia will set 6-month quotas for exports of nitrogen fertilisers

MOSCOW, Nov 3 (Reuters) -

November 3, 2021

Russia will limit exports of nitrogen fertilisers and complex nitrogen-containing fertilisers for six months to try to curb any further increase in food prices amid higher gas prices, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on Wednesday.

Moscow has been trying to contain high food inflation at home with taxes on grain exports in 2021. The recent surge in global gas prices added to its concerns that higher prices for nitrogen fertilisers, which need gas for their production, would further increase the cost of food for the Russians.

• Crunch time for pricey fertilisers squeezing European farmers

January 21 2022

Europe has been hardest hit by fertiliser-plant cutbacks on soaring costs of gas used to run them -- and nutrient prices there remain at a record even as the pressure eased in North America. Europe could face a deficit of about 9% of its annual nitrogen-fertiliser needs in the first half, VTB Capital estimates. Food may get even pricier if harvests suffer or crop prices rise.

Many farmers yet to secure chemicals are either waiting until the last minute in case prices ease, or may spread them more thinly.

In Hungary, nitrogen fertiliser usage will drop around 30% to 40% this season, hurting crop yields, said Gyorgy Rasko, an agricultural economist who has farms in the country.

"If there's a drought around the end of April and May, the effect could be even more devastating, since nitrogen helps plants survive dry days," he said.

Nitrogen nutrients are crucial for spring growth in Europe and are used again from February. They're also the type most affected by Europe's energy crisis because they're produced using gas. A first-half shortage of those types may reach up to 7 million tons, VTB said.

• The politics of Dutch farming complicates matters at the Hague

January 23, 2022

The farming protests in the Netherlands due to "Green policies" have been ongoing for a few years with the court system enforcing these policies.

The limits to the ability of the soil to produce the same amount of output as prior to the disruption lasts about one to one and a half years from the end of the disruption and resumed application of fertiliser. The current disruption to fertiliser production and pricing is one hundred per cent policy driven, It is a combination of green energy policy, economic sanctions, and political posturing, we can expect soaring food prices as a result of supply cuts in wealthy countries such as Ireland and we should not be surprised by widespread hunger, even starvation and societal breakdown in some parts of the world. That will potentially last for a couple of years even if we start to reverse course tomorrow. This is one more angle to be considered in the dispute with Russia.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118520691#Comment_118520691

Germany certainly seems reluctant. The decision to divest from nuclear power so precipitously looks worse and worse. The EU as a whole has made a massive blunder in making themselves so vulnerable to Russian energy.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118520683#Comment_118520683

What?

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118520913#Comment_118520913

I think he was being sarcastic.

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118520886#Comment_118520886

Sure they are reluctant now, but if Russia does something silly, then the reluctance for sanctions will be gone. Russia is also dependent on someone buying their gas.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118515913#Comment_118515913

Fleet exercises does several things for the Russians. It, I'll air quote here, "legitimately" puts their fleet to open sea rather than have them bottled up in poorly located ports like St Petersburg in the Baltic, Sevastopol in the Black sea, Vladivostok hemmed in by Japan, and to a lesser degree Murmansk.

It forces NATO to pay attention, is it posturing, or something else?

From what I've been seeing online, the area in our EEZ, conveniently, has lots of transatlantic undersea data cables. That the same area has in the past received attention from Russian aircraft and trawler/intelligence ships.

Another plus for the Russians is they will have a Naval force to the West of the British Isles. Handy to be a pain for shipping or air transport. Starts to look like a Tom Clancy novel.

So again, is it posturing, or is it we're going to start a war and we're going to put these ships here in case it get's bigger than we think it will, or is Ukraine not the only objective.

The Estonian PM was on the BBC World Service describing the tactics of a former Soviet Foreign Minister, basically be as belligerent and threatening as possible and maybe the other side will give 1/3rd or 1/2 of what you're looking for without firing a shot.

But, at the same time, there appears to genuinely be significant military asset movement by Russia, as well with the talk of a coup in Kiev, for "nothing" to happen.

While busily wedging a foot into his mouth, I think Biden was correct about one thing, that Putin "has to do something". I think that something might happen in the first week of February.

===============

Someone earlier mentioned fertiliser exports. IMV it's farmings own fault for not wanting to look outside of it's own addiction. I'll get flak for that elsewhere but sure I'm used to that. "Modern" fertilisers are only really around since post WW1. Que the "have to feed the world" nonsense posts....

cms88

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519779#Comment_118519779

While nothing may happen it should be, but more than likely won't be, a wake up call of the under funding of the Defense Forces. This is what happens when the Gov are more interested in keeping nurses, teachers etc happy than putting plans to stop things like this from happenenign

cheezums

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118521567#Comment_118521567

ireland is small completely irrelevant country in terms of geopolitics. no amount of defence spending would prevent any of the military powers from obliterating us if they wanted. it's a complete waste of money.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118521567#Comment_118521567

I don't think we'd ever be able to "stop" such things from happening (a big power like Russia parking warships inside our EEZ + doing exercises or whatever) and trying in vain to do so would be a waste of money. However as others have said you'd like the military here to be in a state where it could at least monitor all comings and goings in our airspace and also the very large amount of sea we have "responsibility" for (for latter, it would be useful for more practical concerns like fisheries and resource protection, catching drug smugglers etc.).

In fairness to them this is one issue on which Irish politicians' actions (i.e. deliberate neglect and possibly (?) a running down of the military further vs previous decades despite massive increases in wealth of the country) are just a reflection of, and in full accord with Irish voter's beliefs.

They don't care, think Ireland does not need any military other than for sending small numbers to help UN missions and don't really want any money spent on it. Now they might care if some crisis comes along + scream blue murder (at the govt of the day most likely!) at that point, but will be too late then. So I suppose maybe some more leadership of the public on the issue is needed from politicians but I don't think it would be popular and will cost money so I don't blame them all that much.

Still, I think the world does seem to be getting more unstable now (vs 90s/00s/10s). Ireland's neutralty from the outside looking in is somewhat questionable given our ties like EU membership and the relationship with the US and we are no longer an isolated backwater and economic basket case that can rely on it's sheer irrelevance to keep it safe from everything.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118520886#Comment_118520886

Certainly put an end to any aspirations of an EU army. Very difficult for the likes of Poland and the other eastern European countries to even consider it now after seeing this all unfolding.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118520683#Comment_118520683

Russia has not been encircled by NATO

Cheerful S

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519244#Comment_118519244

Putin not losing his mind here. Russia warned the west, never agree Ukraine be a member of Nato. Nato was set up to destroy the Soviet Union when and if war began.. Western leaders pressing hard for them to join just shows how out of touch they are. What is the main objective of having Ukraine be a member? Look at it from the Russian side, it all makes sense why an invasion is a real prospect. Obviously, nobody wishes an invasion of Ukraine, its people are going to feel the pain if it arises and you have the concern of reaction elsewhere by other countries. Watching this for a while UK and America never learn, regularly shipping military supplies to the Ukrainians for years and, this intensified in the last months of last year and this year. Putin no fool. Watching all this and determined the west does not care about Russia's concerns about Ukraine joining. If they had sense, both sides, an agreement be signed, signature Russia would not invade and signatures Keep Ukraine out of nato.

Russia moved a large portion of firepower around to encircle Ukraine.. With the level of military assets moved Putin decided to pressure the west to listen to the concerns or else. The invasion may not be happening at all, guarantees backed by a threat is mostly likely what's going on here. Putin decided to move against Ukraine he has the firepower in place though.

paul71

Irelands border with the UK is only 300km shorter than the NATO border with Russia. Surrounded my arse.

Gatling

@Cheerful S no body was pressuring Ukraine to join nato ,you damn well know that's not what happened or is happening ..

Typical pro Putin shite it's all everyone's fault bar Putins

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118522165#Comment_118522165

Unfortunately it doesn't stop the same usual suspects repeating it over and over because they subscribed to RT.

Cheerful S

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118522179#Comment_118522179

 That's untrue. Ukraine military received special military package deliveries belonging to Nato. The shipments are examined and watched and Nato transfers the assets so Ukraine can wipe out Russian soldiers. That’s an ugly game Nato playing when things got quiet after the Minsk agreement.. Nato has intervened and helped the Kyiv Government in Ukraine. Putin reacting to stop the military shipments that threaten its security and pressing for guarantees this will stop and Ukraine not join Nato. There is no other reason Putin would attack Ukraine, it's going to be a nightmare to manage, as the north population will be hostile to a takeover and will fight back. There is a military buildup in Ukraine that Russia sees getting worse and now the pressure has been applied with a threat of invasion. 

agoodpunt

The Germans are selling out Europe to russians because they have invested billions on the nordstream pipe line

They have done nothing for Ukraine to keep good relations with russia it considers an important trading partner

Any santions on russia will be met with higher fuel prices and any disruption it can inflect on the west

There is worse than putin in russia after he is gone, they are building a formidable attacking force.

I would be concerned about its deployment in the cork coast even if it is 200+ miles off the cork coast line.

We will never be able to protect ourselves its probably thim to allow a NATO or US base we can use as protection.

preventing arms shippment from it soil russia

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118522312#Comment_118522312

Yeah no ,

more propaganda from rt ....

Gatling

Nato countries sending weapons to Ukraine only started after Russian aggression , occupation and the illegal annexation of Crimea.....

But yes Russian soldiers are going to die in their thousands

Richard Hillman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118520886#Comment_118520886

Vlad mentioned this in his annual press conference, that Europe is doing this to themselves with their green policies.

Rabid green types are usually from very middle class backgrounds with very little to worry about as they grew up. They don't envisage a world of coming up against Alpha Males like Vladimir Putin, who will exploit every weakness.

fly_agaric

Alpha Males like Vladimir Putin

Ha. This thread is great at times (edit: I mean unintentionally funny). A motley crew of Irish Stalinist types and maybe the odd right winger spreading pro Russian propaganda + apologetics and fawning over Great Leader Putin and the size of his...army & missiles.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519874#Comment_118519874

When the US went into Afghanistan for Bin Laden, they cleared the Taliban out in a matter of days. Now as these things go, it was no big deal military wise. The biggest job was holding it for 20 years, while trying to help it develop and improve as an independent Country. They spent literally trillions of dollars in this endeavor . Must have been the only invaders ever to try to improve and modernize the invaded Country. One reason they failed was because of the Nr of external and neighboring country's did not want them to succeed. There was never going to be a good time to pull out,,especially when the US was a major benefactor to Afghanistan. They have been reducing their presence there for quite awhile, but there was always going to be the "Last" day. And of course it was not going to be pleasant. And neither was it... now compare that with the Soviet withdrawal.

obi604

Limited knowledge here 😬

if Russia was to attack the Ukraine, what would the knock on affects be? US and Russia at loggerheads etc

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118522608#Comment_118522608

And all those refugees have visas to travel freely within the EU legally.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118522975#Comment_118522975

If Russia were to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine it could mean war between Russia and the West.

The situation is dangerous and needs to be resolved quickly.

Gatling

The 1938 Munich agreement comes to mind,

A year before the outbreak of WW2 the ,the English, french, Italians sat down with Hitler who wanted to annex The Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia, which was prominently German speaking,

Nobody was willing to stand up and actually fight for Czechoslovakia ,and Hitler got his annexation and Czechoslovakia handed over sudentenland despite the knowledge Hitler was planning to go to war to expand the German borders and got his way barely 10 months later and WW2 began ,

Now compare to these last few weeks ,a huge build up of Russian forces and the demands nato essentially withdraw from the whole of eastern Europe and the Baltics under the guise of putin only wanting peace ......

Sounds awfully familiar

agoodpunt

germany has the white flag at the ready western traitors