Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118522710#Comment_118522710

Apologies 7 + years on this on boards it's hard to read the sarcasm to the usual suspects repeating there surrounded it's all NATOs fault

Unrealistic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118522312#Comment_118522312

"wipe out" which Russian soldiers? Genuine question. Are you suggesting Ukraine is likely to use weapons offensively against Russian soldiers within Russia's borders?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118522975#Comment_118522975

Mostly "thoughts & prayers" sent to what might be left of Ukraine. Much sabre rattling about sanctions, but really post invasion there will be a lot of air sucked through a lot of teeth and considerations given to other economies affected so that really damaging sanctions to Russia/Putin/Putins henchmen won't be applied. The European addiction to Russian gas is a particular weak spot. Markets may dive for a time. There will be no white knights riding into Ukraine's rescue.

I really didn't like him, or agree with much of what he said, but Trump was right on European states taking advantage of the US in terms of continental/NATO defense. What's happening in Ukraine is the result of weakness on the part of European nations.

Danzy

When you consider the German response to this crisis, and to a lesser degree the Dutch And Austrian.

The massive global importance of Russian controlled fertilizer. The mess made with Germany deciding to close 60% of its power plants in a decade, helping escalate European dependence on Russian gas to a significant crisis and risk.

The weak state of the European economy, the global economic dangers, the distraction that was COVID.

You'd have to think he might be wrong to do it but mad not to. Take everything east of the Dnieper.

Germany will make sure that the EU sanctions are manageable. S few years and it will be over.

Gatling

@Danzy When you consider the German response to this crisis, and to a lesser degree the Dutch And Austrian..

At one stage there was protests supporting Putin in Holland after the Russia shot down flight MH17 killing 193 dutch citizens ,the Kremlin are supporting various far right groups through out Europe too, there Could be a fear if they stand up to Putin ,he could get it involved in dirty tricks ,they also still have a fair few European political types who are still in the pockets of Russian intelligence

Dickie10

surely the fertilizer thing is more important than just ah well farmers shouldnt use so much. it could be the easiest mode of war old style siege, starve the populations of europe. not as daft as you think food prices have gone up a lot and could rocket. staples particularly bread and milk. ironically for irish farmers it woould result in boom times a bit like Napoleonic Wars era. Ireland , Britain, Denmark, New Zealand, Uruguay, Argentina and some small regions of Austalia, USA and France would only be capable of producing much food without huge fertiliser usage. we may well come to regret the mess the African economies and political situation are in with regard to gloabal food security. Africa is sitting on massive potential in Agricultural production but needs huge amount of infastructure and agri business education along with proper sized farms. anyone one for Colonization mark 2 there? im sure plenty of food corporations already in on the act there.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523522#Comment_118523522

Two sayings apply here, "we are where we are" and "fail to plan, plan to fail".

It's too late to save Ukraine, imo. The calculation comes down to whether Putin can stomach the after effects or not, but Ukraine is lost as a Western leaning imperfect democracy.

Europe is being held hostage via fertiliser and gas. The fertiliser situation is solved much easier - sorry - would have been solved much easier had we started at it earlier. Like Ukraine, it's too late into the crisis for that now. But, farmers don't need to use the fertiliser they do. There are other ways of growing crops and livestock. I didn't mention the O word either.

A lot of the fert issue isn't to do with feeding the world as much as it is to do with farmer income.

The Ag system is set up in a particular way, but that way isn't the only way to produce abundant food.

The gas/energy problem is the more complex of the two and I'm not going to try to solve it.

Yesterday it was advice to non essential staff. Now…

https://twitter.com/natashabertrand/status/1485392738321416193?s=21

https://twitter.com/natashabertrand/status/1485393021894115329?s=21

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523683#Comment_118523683

I think this is a smart move.

Basically NATO/US/EU/everyone was caught with their pants down by the Kremlin in 2014, the Russians were just way ahead of the curve in everything, if anyone can remember that aid convoy to capture global media attention, whilst at the same time down the border they slipped across military equipment and men, genius. Since then, people have wised up.

So when we have the US telling staff to leave, that's typically an action that occurs before an invasion or conflict breaks out. Naturally it forces Moscow to deny an invasion is going to occur - which will make Russia look even more guilty if they do carry out an incursion (or in the highly unlikely event they were to launch large military operation against Ukraine)

TLDR the more the US/UK/etc act like Russia is going to attack, the more Moscow has to deny it.

Strumms

The Ammo drills about to happen off the South Coast here by the Russians that have led to diplomatic communications with the Russians is all a bit grim…

240 kilometers off our south west coast…

why couldn’t it be done north of Russia in their waters.

scotchy

The exercise off the Cork coast is part of a series of tests due to be carried out by the Russian military worldwide.

Drills will begin at the end of January and take place in areas including the Mediterranean, the north Sea and the Indian Ocean.

BurgerFace

Did anybody see darkness tonight? There was a coup of Ukrainian soldiers. The lead guy was carrying a cardboard rifle.

tigerboon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523863#Comment_118523863

There wouldn't be many intercontinental internet cables north of Russia to park your war ships on top of.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523764#Comment_118523764

There is also a second front co-ordinated to keep the American resources tied down and not concentrating in one theatre.

• Why are China and Russia strengthening ties?
• Crisis In Kazakhstan Pushes China, Russia Closer Together
• In Kazakhstan, Russia’s imperium grows – at China’s expense
• Kazakhstan: Russia-led forces to withdraw; new PM appointed
• Taiwan reports new large-scale Chinese air force incursion
• Taiwan passes extra $8.6bn defence budget as China threat grows

This time last year Russia was testing the Biden administration. The Biden administration blinked. This time round I reckon the objective is secure Kazakhstan which has been slowly drifting from Russian control for a few years. After the recent protests the Kazakhstans administrations fealty to Russia has been re-established. Politically within Russia if anything happens to the Russian populations outside it's borders ("Near Russia"), that becomes politically sensitive for the Kremlin since public sympathy changes.

• Kazakhstan’s alphabet switch reflects wider societal changes

While the change is evidence that the slow, steady decline of Russian influence in the country, both linguistic and political, is shifting into its final phase, the diverse ethnic make-up of the country – which has a substantial ethnic Russian population – means the process is likely to be met with a great deal of hostility.

Kazakhstan possesses a large community of Russians – around 25 per cent of the country’s 18.75 million people – and Russian is spoken by more than 90 per cent of the population.

The other interesting recent geopolitical move - Lithuania

• Pawn to G7

In a move that caught geopolitical analysts by surprise, Lithuania recently picked a fight with another global superpower by inserting itself into the tensions over Taiwan. In November of 2021, Lithuania allowed the disputed territory to setup the Taiwanese Representative Office within its borders. This might not seem like such a big deal at first blush, but for the Communist Party of China (CCP) it crossed a deadly serious red line. In most other countries, such office names refer to the city of Taipei, not the country of Taiwan, and are called Taipei Cultural and Economic Centers. In the eyes of the CCP, Lithuania – a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – has allowed Taiwan to open a de facto embassy, a huge no-no.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524050#Comment_118524050

If you believe what you are told in public then you don't understand the historical, strategic and military significance of Ukraine.

No leader is going to come out shouting war.

That does not mean war is not imminent.

Doesn't mean it is imminent either but I think that there will be war between the west and Russia if there is a full scale invasion of Ukraine.

The RAF have 3 fighter jets, a mustang and their trainer helicopter out and about the Welsh coast and Irish Sea. A normal day at the office?

shillyshilly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524331#Comment_118524331

yes

there's more than likely a lot more, including USAF stuff playing in the Welsh MTA that don't show up on ADSB trackers

The 2 smaller planes are theirs too.

Would the Russian fleet heading to the coast off cork show up on marine traffic? If so, would they be enroute already?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524370#Comment_118524370

Like their military aircraft they turn off transponders and gps tracking information and we have little or no capability to track and find them

Gatling

shillyshilly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524370#Comment_118524370

Depending what they are sending, they may or may not show up on Marine Traffic. Usually Russian warships have all AIS tracking off (along with a lot of warships) when in transit. They usually only turn it on purposefully (when moored, near land, or intentionally to be seen).

Could well be submarines also.

You can track them by proxy, looking for any NATO assets on marine tracker or ADSB, but with them being so far out, I doubt we'll see much.

In saying that though, the USAF P-8's based in Keflavik did a mission yesterday which had them appear off the SW coast of Ireland, pass the south coast and transit back north through the UK, so something definitely on the move out that way.

Another P-8 transited the West coast of the UK/ Irish sea this morning, which looked to be heading towards the Bay of Biscay, that would indicate it's tracking the Russian amphibian force which left the Baltic last week, which should be around Portugal currently.

Lots of OSINT out there if you know where to look

shillyshilly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524476#Comment_118524476

funny you mention the carrier, as one way of tracking it's location is usually by tracking the ocean going tugs which follow it around in case it breaks down....

yesterday's trackable ISR missions, showing the P-8's track off Ireland

https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1485324936860344326

Fiery mutant

While the Russian fleet doing exercises of the coast, and throughout the world really, does have its meaning from Putin, there is a downside to it. It was mentioned above that it ties up US resources elsewhere, but putting their fleet to sea like that, puts everything in open water. If there was to be a clash, and navies start to fight,the Russian navy is no match for the US navy, nevermind throwing NATO into the mix. Having their fleet all out to sea would result in them being obliterated.

Fiery mutant

That's dumb. No one is gonna launch nukes at the first sign of battle. Nukes is a last resort, end of days, stop destruction of your people. It's that kind of thinking that has the world in the place we're at now. Everyone appeasing this idiot 'oh because he has nukes'. With your line of thinking the west should be saying ' if you invade Ukraine we will use the nukes!'. If Ukraine hadn't given up their nukes years ago, you think Vlad be massing troops on their border now?!?!

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524511#Comment_118524511

The problem of Putin's nukes ,isn't a problem with American and the 16 other nato countries with nuclear weapons too .

Putins backers are not willing to go that far

shillyshilly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524561#Comment_118524561

probably.... they had the nukes, but didn't have the means to detonate them (Russia still held the codes)

so you would have had a whole other quagmire of who helped Ukraine become nuclear capable by exploding Russian nukes.

patnor1011

Ukraine most likely disintegrate. There are those proud boys and their tiki torch marches every so often but majority of population only suffered ever since they gained their "independence". In case of some conflict (which is strongly encouraged - see no attempt to implement anything from minsk accords) I suspect ukraine neighbors may offer or even move in to "protect" their minorities and what they perceive as their land which was taken away by soviets. Ukraine does include territories taken from Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania...

Fiery mutant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524611#Comment_118524611

Is your shift not finished yet? Proud boys and tiki toki marches? I think you're confused.

Alot.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524611#Comment_118524611

never go full Kremlin propaganda

agoodpunt

if Russia gets Ukraine bigger threats will follow nukes or no nukes other autocrats in the world will see it as weakness we are been backed into a corner and now russia is using the 200 mile off corks coast because its a blind spot to threaten EU, they know we cant stop or police it, they may have nukes there we wont know if the US did same there would be protests on the streets

Our HSE was cyber attacked from russia by criminals who are protected so we are very much a part of this constant russian agression.