Russia - threadbanned users in OP

shivaz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106321#Comment_119106321

There is not a lot happening in that direction and nothing big will happen until the Donbas battle ends.To get to Odessa the Russians must cross the river Botna at Mykolaiv which is a huge,This was tried at the beginning of the war and failed.Odessa will be safe from a land assault for a while and a sea invasion will be met with Harpoon anti-ship weapons unless they attack very soon which is unlikely.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106335#Comment_119106335

By all accounts, Odessa is much better defended than Mariupol - Mariupol was caught napping slightly when the Russians advanced but Odessa has had months to prepare for a Russian invasion.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106446#Comment_119106446

It'd be nearly as big a move as a no fly zone to protect convoys going to Odessa , and protect the loading facilities in the port at Odessa ,

It'd mean threading through snake island and Sevastopol's air-space/ missile space/ sea space -

It's doable ( if the turks are onboard ) , and finding the cargo ships could be tricky ..

But it'd depend on Moscow , and how escalatory they are - I mean they could ignore the whole thing pretend nothing is happening .. or they could keep firing missiles at Odessa ,

If they lock radar on a NATO ship, or aggressively check it out from air or sea then that's gonna be a response ..

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106234#Comment_119106234

When you say that Russia has lost a third of its troops, I assume you mean both killed and injured, as 60,000 dead Russian soldiers would exceed even the most pro-Ukrainian estimates there are.

The problem, anyway, is that although Russia is undoubtedly losing lots of soldiers every day in its attempt to grind through the Donbas, are Ukraine taking similarly heavy casualties? We know they're taking at least some casualties, although exact numbers are being held close the chest. It has to be that Ukrainian forces are getting worn down to a similar proportion as Russia's, otherwise Russia would little to no ability to grind out gains in the Donbass. Ukraine needs as many modern western weapon systems as it can get in order to dispatch Russian armour and grunts at a nice safe distance.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106546#Comment_119106546

Not really we've known and the Ukrainans knew exactly what was going to happen there , considering they(Russia )lost a thousands of men and equipment the last time they tried to take it 8 years ago , Russia was always going to destroy Mariupol because of the AZOZ battalions.it wasn't about taking and holding Mariupol it was about the punishment and wiping out of the azoz

Manic Moran

The precedent is Operation Earnest Will, the escorting by the US Navy of Kuwaiti tankers temporarily flying American colors during the Tanker War. Unfortunately, the end result was a clash between the US and Iranian navies after USS Samuel B Roberts was mined: Operation Preying Mantis.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106637#Comment_119106637

Didn't they put gunships and special forces on converted merchant vessels (US) at the time

Say my name

On subject of Ukrainian grain. Russian forces now control 30% of the farmland in Ukraine. But in the area of the south and east that's 100% tillage farmland compared to more livestock and grassland grazing in the west and north. So the cropland controlled by Russia in Ukraine is a good figure. In the next month harvest will start of the winter crops. Anywhere the Russians have been, they've destroyed grain stores, including ground taken back by the Ukrainians. So those crops will need to be moved instantly at harvest or else they'll be spoiled. In the Russian controlled areas it'll be trucked, railed back to Russia. In the Ukrainian controlled areas if no stores available it'll spoil. There's a big crunch time coming up in the next short while.

The World's farmers know there's a famine coming and the civil servants still can't think it possible that the food won't be available in Tesco.

I stuck that in because there's a serious lack of urgency on the matter and Putin is clapping with glee like a madman.

http://observers.france24.com/en/europe/20220506-russian-attacks-on-farms-and-silos-deliberately-trying-to-destroy-the-ukrainian-economy

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106775#Comment_119106775

I stuck the tesco quote in because it's the people that shop here and in like stores that hold the power and sway on world decisions.

The only way this will end will be boots from the EU and US, Britain on the ground in Ukraine. Harpoons from Denmark to Ukraine won't cut it. Not to mention the minefields now in the Black Sea.

The world is trundling along hands in pockets to famine.

shivaz

What would you do for your good friend,the father of your goddaughter?...Nothing if you are Vladimir Putin.

Kremlin rules out any prisoner exchange for Viktor Medvedchuk.https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-23/Kremlin-says-not-possible-to-exchange-Medvedchuk-for-Azovstal-fighters-1agRGlPfRNS/index.html

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106916#Comment_119106916

If one takes that attitude then one is the same as the Russians.

Those countries are not going to be able to do a dam thing bar complain to the UN. Which is a gelded three legged donkey at this stage.

The harvest starts in the next month if as a human race we just observe this then I'm not sure we're even human.

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107136#Comment_119107136

There's probably not enough trucks on the continent to move this much grain (every truck diverted to move grain means it isn't doing what it was bought for originally). It has to be moved out of Ukraine for fear of it being blown to bits in silos waiting to be transported.

India have banned export of grain to ensure their own population aren't going to go hungry. At least that's the plan now anyway.

In the developed world prices of food will go up. Some things won't be available to buy. The poorer regions are in big trouble. Remember there was a poor harvest in a lot of the world last year. Canada still has drought conditions where seeding is ongoing now. The US have their lowest amount sown at this date for many many years. No rain in France. Russia banned from selling. Ukraine being blown to bits. There is a grain issue on it's way.

Hobgoblin11

https://t.me/suspilnemykolaiv/10232

Fire at petrol station in Ingulsky district of Mykolaiv englufed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105425#Comment_119105425

Insurance is controlled by Kremlin like anything else in Russia

Gatling

The idea of shipping grain by truck across Europe is a no go ,you would need over one million trucks to ship the grain across Europe

paul71

Trucks will not and cannot replace ships. I highlighted this a week ago. A ladden truck is max 44 tonnes (that includes the weight of the truck), so a truck can carry about 25-30 tonnes, a ship carries between 20,000 and 60,000 tonnes.

Suggesting that the 80 million tonnes of grain and sunflower seed be moved by truck is about as useful as suggesting that it can be walked across Europe a teaspoon at a time.

paul71

Even that will not suffice, Odessa is 1 port. It alone never had to deal with the 80,000,000 tonnes of annual export. That logistic task was divided between all the Ukrainian ports and the others are now in Russian hands. The fact is is not possible to get all the coming harvest out of Ukraine without using the Russian occupied ports (including the Crimea).

Ukraine provides about 10% the worlds food, and I fear a lot of that it is already lost. It is not helped by that fact that we are already seeing the effects of global warming on crop yields in other parts of the world (Indias heatwave and the French crop yield is currently losing 1,000,000 tonnes a week due to drought).

https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20220519-france-s-crop-yields-will-be-very-poor-due-to-unprecedented-drought

Francie Barrett

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1529071551978557445

Igor Girkin finally has something positive to report for Russia. It's not the massive encirclement that they originally hoped for, but it's still looking like it'll be a win for Russia, a significant city Severodonetsk is going to be lost to Russia.

I think it's becoming increasingly obvious that there is a need for a negotiated peace here. While I think it's clear that Russia don't have the capability to take all the territory that they want, equally Ukraine doesn't have the ability to re-take all the territory that is under Russian control.

While I would love to see Russia being beaten, I just cannot see how it's going to happen. People seem to think that providing spare parts to get a few obsolete MiG's into the air, or America providing 100 towed artillery pieces is somehow going to enable Ukraine to go on the offense is delusional. To give Ukraine any hope, their entire military needs complete modernisation. That means Western airplanes, air defences, tanks, artillery, personnel carriers, and all the associated equipment around that. At the moment, no one is willing to go anywhere near providing that level of support.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107426#Comment_119107426

According to this article in Euronews, produce is still getting out of Ukraine, but via the Romanian port of Constanta.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/08/ukrainian-farmers-export-their-harvest-via-romania#:~:text=The%20Breadbasket%20of%20Europe%20is,transporting%20grain%20cannot%20set%20sail.

And another article mentioning Ukraine shipping grain out via rail

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sets-new-grain-export-curbs-moldova-romania-2022-05-06/

So, there is still some movement. Not that I'm saying the volumes are anything close to what they would be if this war wasn't taking place, but it is something and that's better than nothing.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107589#Comment_119107589

A "negotiated agreement" guarantees that Russia will reinvade Ukraine within two to three years. Agreements mean absolutely nothing to them and Putin relishes the idea of the regime being a pariah state. It would be like someone trying to negotiate a peace agreement with Hitler in the middle of WW2.

You can just imagine the fascists and their media talking about "provocations" by Ukraine and NATO in a couple of years time and saying they have no choice but to reinvade.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107648#Comment_119107648

At the rate Francie is backtracking he'll be pushing for an unconditional Russian surrender by the end of August.

Grayson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107669#Comment_119107669

That's the big problem. Russia can't be trusted to agree to anything. I wouldn't even say a few years. Give them 6 months to reorganise and they could be back again. I can't see any solution to this that doesn't involve a full military withdrawal and a guarantee from western countries to commit forces in the event of a re invasion.

Francie Barrett

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107648#Comment_119107648

Cute snarky answer, I never said surrender though.

But if you are so sure, maybe you can tell me how Ukraine are going to defeat Russia at this juncture?

Todays update from sky

Looks like Russia have the momentum at the moment

https://youtu.be/M4gleImeWmE

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107669#Comment_119107669

Totally agree. Putin's not in the mood to sign and stick a deal unless it's one which gives him everything he wants, and everything he wants most likely includes the removal of the current Ukrainian government and installation of a puppet, and what essentially is a guarantee that Ukraine can never move away from Russia's influence ever again or assert its sovereignty. Total control is what Russia wants. Any deal less than this will just be a stepping stone, giving Russia a breather before it decides to attack again. And if Russia gets that total control, it will use it to ethnically-cleanse Ukraine.

But something has to happen to tip the balance, here. I don't see any way this ends soon in Ukraine's favour unless either NATO goes in, or perhaps Poland and the Baltic states joining in, independently of NATO.

zv2

Driving in Donbas https://twitter.com/ArisMessinis/status/1528763701859209216?s=20&t=Wbp57SxoaSD6EOA5Hh5sjg

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107648#Comment_119107648

Francie might need to make like SF and start deleting the old pro Russian stuff 😂

shivaz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107739#Comment_119107739

Nato has said that Ukraine can win this war.The battle for Sievierodonetsk will not determine this war,there's a lot more to do and it will be done and panicking when things look bad is for the weak minded.

The road to Sievierodonetsk may become like the road to Kiev at the start of the war.Attacked from the north Lysychansk,the south/artillery in bakhmut and the west/hit and run tactics with anti-tank weapons.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107370#Comment_119107370

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105654#Comment_119105654

I presume he means the government pay out on loss of life rather than a Lloyds type institute issuing life ins.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107589#Comment_119107589

Tell me again which side of the treaty you were on and how much you think it was a betrayal of the nationalists in the six counties (now Northern Ireland). But, you're okay with it happening to another country?!