A "negotiated agreement" guarantees that Russia will reinvade Ukraine within two to three years. Agreements mean absolutely nothing to them and Putin relishes the idea of the regime being a pariah state. It would be like someone trying to negotiate a peace agreement with Hitler in the middle of WW2.
You can just imagine the fascists and their media talking about "provocations" by Ukraine and NATO in a couple of years time and saying they have no choice but to reinvade.
At the rate Francie is backtracking he'll be pushing for an unconditional Russian surrender by the end of August.
That's the big problem. Russia can't be trusted to agree to anything. I wouldn't even say a few years. Give them 6 months to reorganise and they could be back again. I can't see any solution to this that doesn't involve a full military withdrawal and a guarantee from western countries to commit forces in the event of a re invasion.
Cute snarky answer, I never said surrender though.
But if you are so sure, maybe you can tell me how Ukraine are going to defeat Russia at this juncture?
Todays update from sky
Looks like Russia have the momentum at the moment
Totally agree. Putin's not in the mood to sign and stick a deal unless it's one which gives him everything he wants, and everything he wants most likely includes the removal of the current Ukrainian government and installation of a puppet, and what essentially is a guarantee that Ukraine can never move away from Russia's influence ever again or assert its sovereignty. Total control is what Russia wants. Any deal less than this will just be a stepping stone, giving Russia a breather before it decides to attack again. And if Russia gets that total control, it will use it to ethnically-cleanse Ukraine.
But something has to happen to tip the balance, here. I don't see any way this ends soon in Ukraine's favour unless either NATO goes in, or perhaps Poland and the Baltic states joining in, independently of NATO.
Driving in Donbas https://twitter.com/ArisMessinis/status/1528763701859209216?s=20&t=Wbp57SxoaSD6EOA5Hh5sjg
Francie might need to make like SF and start deleting the old pro Russian stuff 😂
Nato has said that Ukraine can win this war.The battle for Sievierodonetsk will not determine this war,there's a lot more to do and it will be done and panicking when things look bad is for the weak minded.
The road to Sievierodonetsk may become like the road to Kiev at the start of the war.Attacked from the north Lysychansk,the south/artillery in bakhmut and the west/hit and run tactics with anti-tank weapons.
I presume he means the government pay out on loss of life rather than a Lloyds type institute issuing life ins.
Tell me again which side of the treaty you were on and how much you think it was a betrayal of the nationalists in the six counties (now Northern Ireland). But, you're okay with it happening to another country?!
Momentum going east back toward Russia
Correct,Kremlin takes 90% you get 10%
When Severodonetsk is resolved, either way, things will level out for a while, then start up again with Ukraine winning.
Just small steps for Russia,nothing major
However reality on the ground is probably different
I think it's becoming increasingly obvious that there is a need for a negotiated peace here. While I think it's clear that Russia don't have the capability to take all the territory that they want, equally Ukraine doesn't have the ability to re-take all the territory that is under Russian control.
Nonsense. They push Russia back twice and retaken huge amounts of territory. Ukraine holds all the keys here the longer this goes on. Russia conquering territory will be a drain for them in the short and medium term.
The Russian army has lots huge amount of men and equipment, the latter of which is difficult to replace with sanctions ongoing.
Time is on Ukraine's side. Those telling Ukraine to sue for peace now are fools and shills imo.
Much easier to defend than attack - Russias advance will eventually stall short of Kramatorsk in several months time, but unlikely that Ukrainians can take back much of Donbass unless they magic up a whole new airforce.
Not everyone got caught up in the Ukraine is winning propaganda wall it seems
Ukraine has some of the most fertile soils in the world, chernozems are a particularly fertile dark soil found in South and East Ukraine and stretching right through central Russia.
The worry shouldn't be about exporting this year's harvest, but instead about what happens next year if Donbass & Kherson are still under Russian control. Thats a very large amount of Ukraine's best wheat and barley growing areas, not to mention the mineral & industrial rich centers in the East.
Just look at Afghanistan, they can bleed the Russians dry. I cannot see an easy out for Russia here.
Certainly moving past the Feb 24 lines would be unexpected but as the Russian forces degrade further and potentially (/likely) face insurgent opposition in places they have occupied it will change the dynamic somewhat. There are ways to lose territory other than via traditional ground forces.
Afghanistan was due to the Russians trying to forcibly occupy a country and deal with insurgencies, similar to US in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Remains to be seen if there will be a significant insurgency in Russian held territories so far - DPR and LPR have been Russia-aligned for years now and havent suffered from anywhere near that kind of unrest. And with a lot of the pro-west citizenry having fled the now occupied territories that makes serious insurgency even less likely.
Can't know for sure until things become a bit more normal under occupation and frontlines start to really stall but its very unlikely to be Afghanistan 2.0
Kissinger's day is long-gone. His main foreign policy achievement of a detente with China looks like mouldy bread these days, and he may or may not live to see his entire thesis formally fall-apart if the PRC move on Taiwan.
His institute is stacked full of Chinese Communist Party goons - and he's still feted there in a way he's not in the West. In his latter years he's repurposed himself as some sort of soothsayer and oracle when it comes to China, despite getting that country's political culture and underlying motives completely wrong.
Yes, I agree he's a nasty piece of work.
However because the sanctions aren't working in Russia, especially to the speed that was wanted, and the Ukranian army (regardless of individual fragmented tweets from Ukrainian sources on Twitter) is getting pummeled as the only advantage they have is intel and anti tank weapons, are outclassed everywhere else, Kissinger is right imo.
To save face and to stop a very embarrassing and destructive winter recession in EU that would really damamage US/EU relations, things hopefully will get pushed towards to a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine. Longer this goes on and the weaker the Ukrainian military position is the weaker they are at the table where they are likely going to have to take a final bite of the **** sandwich.
The idea that Russia would be beaten conventionally on battlefiled in Ukraine without foreign troops was pretty much infantile in my mind. The sanctions gambit has clearly failed for the west so what next? Escalation? Peace would be better.
Old man is right.....he'll be 99 in three days.
This is gas.
Ukraine have been winning all over the place including the sea .. with no NAVY.
Some recent small advances by Russia does not a save face make.
As for sanctions not working ,.negative GDP and the only thing propping them up is sanctions not being implemented in full see France Germany Italy.
If they pulled up their pants then we'd see this accelerate.
Did I say your summation was gas? Because it is.
Another one bites the dust
A retired general no less ,shot down over eastern Ukraine earlier.
Kissinger is believed by many to be a Putin shill and to be way too close to him.
Slovenia to send 40 m80 tanks(modern T72) and Germany to send a similar number of IVF vehicles , with Slovenia to get the maraders vehicles and leapoard tanks in return the same maraders ukraine repeatedly tried to buy from the Germans
Probably people imagined the sanctions will lead to popular revolts which will overthrow Putin, and this was to happen this side of Christmas. Probably because those imposing the sanctions did a lousy job of explaining that russians are already poor and yet they support Putin 80% or more so these sanctions will only work long term to further weaken the economy and make waging war unsustainable.
But the only short term solution is military aid, not necessary troops but intel and training and of course arms. And make no mistake, there is no other way to real peace than having russia defeated.
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