Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Putin has spent over 20 years carefully cultivating an almost complete control of Russian politics and it is my assumption that a lot of people are afraid of him in Russia. He does need to be taken down, but it'll take a brave and equally cunning man to step forward and plunge the knife in. That event, if it happens, cannot happen soon enough.

And as we've seen in other autocrats, if the first time misses, then the crackdown comes and there's no chance for anyone else to make a second attempt.

Suicide drone apparently - https://twitter.com/vik8867dn/status/1529032958593716224?s=20&t=QlQfnK56Pc_-OPabKVQepw

Odessa will be on the cards soon enough then

I suppose it would, but as I said before, maybe it's possible to get at least some of that grain out of Ukraine overland, i.e. west to Romania, down to Bulgaria and on down into Greece and the med.

Anyway, in a sense Ukraine is already landlocked because of the amount of hazards Russia has placed in the Black Sea. I don't expect there's much coming in or out of the port of Odessa right now.

Russia would have a fair way to go before they can take Odessa. They already tried to get to it through Mykolaiv and were rudely rebuffed. The way it looks at the moment, Russia is focusing on the Donbass. If and when they can say they have conquered that region, their efforts should shift south for a push west along the coast.

There is not a lot happening in that direction and nothing big will happen until the Donbas battle ends.To get to Odessa the Russians must cross the river Botna at Mykolaiv which is a huge,This was tried at the beginning of the war and failed.Odessa will be safe from a land assault for a while and a sea invasion will be met with Harpoon anti-ship weapons unless they attack very soon which is unlikely.

It'd be nearly as big a move as a no fly zone to protect convoys going to Odessa , and protect the loading facilities in the port at Odessa ,

It'd mean threading through snake island and Sevastopol's air-space/ missile space/ sea space -

It's doable ( if the turks are onboard ) , and finding the cargo ships could be tricky ..

But it'd depend on Moscow , and how escalatory they are - I mean they could ignore the whole thing pretend nothing is happening .. or they could keep firing missiles at Odessa ,

If they lock radar on a NATO ship, or aggressively check it out from air or sea then that's gonna be a response ..

Not really we've known and the Ukrainans knew exactly what was going to happen there , considering they(Russia )lost a thousands of men and equipment the last time they tried to take it 8 years ago , Russia was always going to destroy Mariupol because of the AZOZ battalions.it wasn't about taking and holding Mariupol it was about the punishment and wiping out of the azoz

Didn't they put gunships and special forces on converted merchant vessels (US) at the time

I stuck the tesco quote in because it's the people that shop here and in like stores that hold the power and sway on world decisions.

The only way this will end will be boots from the EU and US, Britain on the ground in Ukraine. Harpoons from Denmark to Ukraine won't cut it. Not to mention the minefields now in the Black Sea.

The world is trundling along hands in pockets to famine.

If one takes that attitude then one is the same as the Russians.

Those countries are not going to be able to do a dam thing bar complain to the UN. Which is a gelded three legged donkey at this stage.

The harvest starts in the next month if as a human race we just observe this then I'm not sure we're even human.

Fire at petrol station in Ingulsky district of Mykolaiv englufed

The idea of shipping grain by truck across Europe is a no go ,you would need over one million trucks to ship the grain across Europe

Even that will not suffice, Odessa is 1 port. It alone never had to deal with the 80,000,000 tonnes of annual export. That logistic task was divided between all the Ukrainian ports and the others are now in Russian hands. The fact is is not possible to get all the coming harvest out of Ukraine without using the Russian occupied ports (including the Crimea).

Ukraine provides about 10% the worlds food, and I fear a lot of that it is already lost. It is not helped by that fact that we are already seeing the effects of global warming on crop yields in other parts of the world (Indias heatwave and the French crop yield is currently losing 1,000,000 tonnes a week due to drought).

https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20220519-france-s-crop-yields-will-be-very-poor-due-to-unprecedented-drought

According to this article in Euronews, produce is still getting out of Ukraine, but via the Romanian port of Constanta.

And another article mentioning Ukraine shipping grain out via rail

So, there is still some movement. Not that I'm saying the volumes are anything close to what they would be if this war wasn't taking place, but it is something and that's better than nothing.