Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Amadan Dubh

Ardillaun wrote: »

What’s the potential for flooding in that Poolbeg development if climate change continues on its current trajectory?

I'm sure the selfless and caring objectors will set it out in their reports.

Amadan Dubh

The IT publishing an opinion piece from O'Broin today, calling for substantial public investment in housing and referring to the ESRI report which called for this last week. The government must have, a few weeks ago, realised that the public aren't going to give them a big pat on the back for handling covid as the anger and urgency in relation to the crisis has found its voice so easily.

It is a strange time since SF are gaining legitimacy because of the housing crisis. But again, great to see the momentum continue that something drastic needs to be done to force down rents and prices as well as dramatically increasing supply.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/eoin-%C3%B3-broin-our-dysfunctional-housing-system-can-be-fixed-1.4584570?mode=amp

<SNIP>

Jmc25

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

The IT publishing an opinion piece from O'Broin today, calling for substantial public investment in housing and referring to the ESRI report which called for this last week. The government must have, a few weeks ago, realised that the public aren't going to give them a big pat on the back for handling covid as the anger and urgency in relation to the crisis has found its voice so easily.

It is a strange time since SF are gaining legitimacy because of the housing crisis. But again, great to see the momentum continue that something drastic needs to be done to force down rents and prices as well as dramatically increasing supply.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/eoin-%C3%B3-broin-our-dysfunctional-housing-system-can-be-fixed-1.4584570?mode=amp

<SNIP>

The whole tone from the Irish Times has changed from "oh sure isn't it just terrible, let's put it on the list of things to be fixed right after the health service and all the other apparently insurmountable problems in the country", to "no, this actually does need to be fixed now".

Amadan Dubh

Jmc25 wrote: »

The whole tone from the Irish Times has changed from "oh sure isn't it just terrible, let's put it on the list of things to be fixed right after the health service and all the other apparently insurmountable problems in the country", to "no, this actually does need to be fixed now".

It's no harm for them to start to cosy up to SF now as they'll be a paper representing the minority if they adopt the "SF are terrorists" trope and don't "wake up and smell the roses".

Cal4567

A lot of these journalists are in their 30s. Could even be a later 20s hanging around there as well. Most likely they are experiencing exactly what many other 20s and 30s are, or most of their wider social circle are. Throw in a few socially liberal types in their 40s, I'd say there's a strong amount number of journies accepting this is not just a passing minor problem.

rh5555

Anyone has any opinion on the new corporate tax decision? As far as I understand you now pay taxes in the country where you sell your goods and services and not where you have your HQ.

Just in case people don't know what I am talking about: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/explainer-g7-tax-deal-what-was-agreed-and-what-does-it-mean-for-ireland-1.4585696

So minimum Tax will be 15% which isn't the killer here if I understand it correctly.

Most large multinationals put their HQ's here because that allowed them to pay 12.5% even on goods sold outside of Ireland.

If this now changes there is no reason for multinationals to have all their HQ here. Let's face it Ireland is a very expensive country with high income tax rates so I am sure these companies could now find other countries to move their HQ's too.

Considering there are so many people here working for these multinationals this could turn into less jobs and the housing will free up if they leave.

Now this is all brand-new but as it can have such a huge impact on housing I figured I would mention it.

Smouse156

Smouse156 wrote: »

I’d be questioning the honesty of that post, especially as HAP max is supposed to be €1300:

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/housing/renting_a_home/housing_assistance_payment.html

Not saying they’re aren’t exceptions but it’s shocking if it’s the norm to get €2500 towards the insane rent.

Homeless HAP rates are much higher. The usual for an adult and two children is €1950. However, HAP seem to regularly increase this.

Ardillaun

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I'm sure the selfless and caring objectors will set it out in their reports.

I’ve no time for the nimbys but Sandymount is a prime candidate for future inundation.

drogon.

rh5555 wrote: »

Anyone has any opinion on the new corporate tax decision? As far as I understand you now pay taxes in the country where you sell your goods and services and not where you have your HQ.

Just in case people don't know what I am talking about: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/explainer-g7-tax-deal-what-was-agreed-and-what-does-it-mean-for-ireland-1.4585696

So minimum Tax will be 15% which isn't the killer here if I understand it correctly.

Most large multinationals put their HQ's here because that allowed them to pay 12.5% even on goods sold outside of Ireland.

If this now changes there is no reason for multinationals to have all their HQ here. Let's face it Ireland is a very expensive country with high income tax rates so I am sure these companies could now find other countries to move their HQ's too.

Considering there are so many people here working for these multinationals this could turn into less jobs and the housing will free up if they leave.

Now this is all brand-new but as it can have such a huge impact on housing I figured I would mention it.

Honestly it will only have very little impact. Even though our corporate tax is 12.5%, vast majority of multinational companies don't pay close to that. They get various tax credits - as an example if you do any R&D work in Ireland, you get additional tax credit (25%) on any expenditure towards it - Once you add all this, the overall tax bill is a lot less.

I would easily see some large multinational companies paying as little as 1% or 2% tax a year over here.

Cal4567

I wonder once we get onto the tax harmonisation, we'll have a few years of prevarication around the tax credits countries are still implementing. Cue efforts to harmonize those blah de blah de blah, meanwhile 2030 will have come and gone.

The point I am making is this will linger on and on. Mind you with a bit of cop on we will have enough time to concentrate on the various infrastructure that needs building and upgrading.

yagan

Cal4567 wrote: »

I wonder once get onto the tax harmonisation, we'll have a few years of prevarication around the tax credits countries are still implementing. Cue efforts to harmonize those blah de blah de blah, meanwhile 2030 will have come and gone.

The point I am making is this will linger on and on. Mind you with a bit of cop on we will have enough time to concentrate on the various infrastructure that needs building and upgrading.

A lot of it is hand waving with bigger countries citing Ireland's CTR while at the same time subsidising domestic champions with local tax breaks like France with electricity companies, Germany with auto makers and Spain with football clubs.

If they want a level playing field they're going to have to a lot of internal adjusting too. We're in the spotlight because we didn't have major industrial champions to uphold so our up front flat rate 12.5% was very attractive compared to the less opaque settings in the industrial nations.

Sweet.Science

Jmc25 wrote: »

The whole tone from the Irish Times has changed from "oh sure isn't it just terrible, let's put it on the list of things to be fixed right after the health service and all the other apparently insurmountable problems in the country", to "no, this actually does need to be fixed now".

It's because now it is affecting all social classes and not just the working class

wassie

mcsean2163 wrote: »

We noticed the house we viewed is located beside the water treatment plant.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/springhills-residence-on-c-18-5-acres-ballymore-eustace-kildare-w91-t8k0/4504390

Does anyone know if the water treatment plant in Ballymore Eustace is very smelly/ dangerous to health to live beside?

Go down there and spend some time on a reasonably warm day. Preferably with a light wind from the south. Or go door knocking on the neighbours and ask. I wouldn't be relying on a forum one way or the other.

awec

yagan wrote: »

A lot of it is hand waving with bigger countries citing Ireland's CTR while at the same time subsidising domestic champions with local tax breaks like France with electricity companies, Germany with auto makers and Spain with football clubs.

If they want a level playing field they're going to have to a lot of internal adjusting too. We're in the spotlight because we didn't have major industrial champions to uphold so our up front flat rate 12.5% was very attractive compared to the less opaque settings in the industrial nations.

Don’t forget a lot of them have their little tax haven islands / statelets too, that they’re all going to try to ensure stay as close to current rates as possible.

Monaco, Bermuda, Virgin Islands, Jersey etc etc.

Villa05

rh5555 wrote:

Anyone has any opinion on the new corporate tax decision? As far as I understand you now pay taxes in the country where you sell your goods and services and not where you have your HQ.

Does appear to be a bit of bullying by powerful nations over smaller ones.

You have vat for collecting taxes where the business is done. I would assume there are alot of exporting nations that would be against these proposals

Appears to be using a chainsaw for a job made for a carving knife.

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Does appear to be a bit of bullying by powerful nations over smaller ones.

You have vat for collecting taxes where the business is done. I would assume there are alot of exporting nations that would be against these proposals

Appears to be using a chainsaw for a job made for a carving knife.

Breaking news: cargo cultist incensed at proposal to reroute air corridor.

combat14

Germany urges EU to end individual state's veto rights

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2021/0607/1226474-germany-veto-call/

interesting to see germany looking to end eu state veto rights - given that cyrpus and ireland may well use the veto to stop landslide future tax changes which will affect our states revenue and ultimately our ability to fund state house building projects - we will have to wait and see if there is much demand from other eu states for this german suggestion

yagan

combat14 wrote: »

Germany urges EU to end individual state's veto rights

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2021/0607/1226474-germany-veto-call/

interesting to see germany looking to end eu state veto rights - given that cyrpus and ireland may well use the veto to stop landslide future tax changes which will affect our states revenue and ultimately our ability to fund state house building projects - we will have to wait and see if there is much demand from other eu states for this german suggestion

Alternatively like Germany and NZ did we could ban non residency funds bidding against ourselves for completed stock.

To link our hands off property management to our CTR doesn't make sense.

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

Germany urges EU to end individual state's veto rights

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2021/0607/1226474-germany-veto-call/

interesting to see germany looking to end eu state veto rights - given that cyrpus and ireland may well use the veto to stop landslide future tax changes which will affect our states revenue and ultimately our ability to fund state house building projects - we will have to wait and see if there is much demand from other eu states for this german suggestion

Germany is right. The reason is states like Hungary and Poland, principally, not Ireland. Clowns like Orban supporting Belarus are just too much. The UN security council serves no pupose due to the veto nonsense and it similarly cripples EU foreign policy inniitiatives.

Villa05

combat14 wrote:

interesting to see germany looking to end eu state veto rights - given that cyrpus and ireland may well use the veto to stop landslide future tax changes which will affect our states revenue and ultimately our ability to fund state house building projects

The state has taken in 15 billion in unforseen corporate taxes since 2016. More than enough to solve any housing supply issue

Let's not kid ourselves into thinking that the government' wanted to solve the issue. In that time it's been made significantly worse

We could have used that money to balance supply/ demand and significantly improve our competitiveness and reduce future outgoing on state subsidised rents that are leaving the country untaxed

A billion a year wasted on HAP every year and growing significantly

Embarrassing

Amadan Dubh

Peak bubble today in the IT. A garish, tone deaf article advertising the benefits of social housing investment, which isn't just for institutionals don't you know?

In short, free money and a no brainer of an investment! If offices and luxury apartments are the ghost estates of the 10s, this social housing junket is the equivalent of seminars for investing in Bulgaria in the 00s

It is just a question of when the bubble pops.

Some quite ridiculous quotes;

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/no-rent-rules-no-vacancies-it-s-social-housing-investment-1.4583121?mode=amp

No rent rules, no vacancies: It’s social housing investment

No rent rules, no vacancies, potentially no property tax and many more benefits

With a social housing contract, rent rules don’t apply. This means that increases – even in properties situated in rent pressure zones – can be in excess of those prescribed by the rules, which is set at 4 per cent a year.

There is also typically no break clause in such agreements.

If you’re a private landlord, you must register each tenancy with the Residential Tenancy Board (RTB). This costs €90 per tenancy, with a late fee of €180. It is a legal requirement to do so. With a social housing agreement however, there is no requirement for such a registration.

When you become a landlord, the responsibility for the upkeep of that property is on you. With social housing however, it’s more of a hands-off situation as the local councils will be responsible for general upkeep.

With a social housing lease, while the unit may be empty as the local council or approved housing body has not found a tenant to occupy it, this won’t be an issue of yours. The lease agreement ensures that rent is paid regardless of occupancy, which means that there is no risk of vacancy for the landlord over the term of the contract.

With some landlords potentially facing increases in local property tax when homes are finally revalued for the first time in eight years later this year, investing in social housing can be a way around this.

If you’re a private landlord, having more units to rent may boost your overall income; but it won’t automatically result in increased rents. With a social housing lease however, this can be the case.

Amadan Dubh

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Peak bubble today in the IT. A garish, tone deaf article advertising the benefits of social housing investment, which isn't just for institutionals don't you know?

In short, free money and a no brainer of an investment! If offices and luxury apartments are the ghost estates of the 10s, this social housing junket is the equivalent of seminars for investing in Bulgaria in the 00s

It is just a question of when the bubble pops.

Some quite ridiculous quotes;

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/no-rent-rules-no-vacancies-it-s-social-housing-investment-1.4583121?mode=amp

I’m struggling to see your issue with this. Though the article is behind a paywall, the jist of it seems to be that there are benefits for investors in buying properties for social housing, which are then leased to local councils, thus providing access to social housing through private investment.

Villa05

Amadan Dubh wrote:

Peak bubble today in the IT. A garish, tone deaf article advertising the benefits of social housing investment, which isn't just for institutionals don't you know?

The Irish taxpayer - forever, the village idiot

Thanks prudent paschal

Mic 1972

i've changed my mind regarding Long term leasing to the council. I was about the rent to the council and made a complete u-turn after seeing the list of requirements from the council and thinking about my house been rented to people who may have social issues.
Eventually i'm going for private market. There is always risk of bad tenants but from my experience from another property that I rent, a lot o bad tenancies can be prevented by doing all the checks before hand

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

The state has taken in 15 billion in unforseen corporate taxes since 2016. More than enough to solve any housing supply issue

Let's not kid ourselves into thinking that the government' wanted to solve the issue. In that time it's been made significantly worse

We could have used that money to balance supply/ demand and significantly improve our competitiveness and reduce future outgoing on state subsidised rents that are leaving the country untaxed

A billion a year wasted on HAP every year and growing significantly

Embarrassing

As Clare TD, Michael McNamara, said over the weekend on the potential impact on the commercial and residential space in our cities from these global tax changes:

“Now, most multinationals, particularly in the tech sector, hire in from abroad. In the past year, many of those workers have been working from their homes all over the world. But for tax reasons, the tech corporations and Irish Revenue Commissioners all pretend they’re still in the empty office and apartment blocks in the Dockhands.“

There now appears to be a genuine fear from at least some TD's in relation to future multinational policy on where they will be able to allow these workers to work in the future. I guess we should know a bit more from September this year.

He also compared the ministers to acting like Comical Ali by adding the global tax reforms may impact our ability to keep borrowing in the future and how our artificial GDP figures makes our borrowing look sustainable:

"There’s much talk about a €2bn reduction in our tax take, and that this has been foreseen for some time. Another, potentially bigger problem will be the impact on our GDP figure which for several years has been inflated by profits channelled through Ireland for corporation tax reasons.”

Basically, he's saying that our borrowings only looks sustainable based on a GDP metric that is artificial and this can change significantly at very short notice.

There must be some serious discussions taking place at the moment on how expensive HAP, long-term lease etc. are and if there are viable alternatives. If there aren't serious discussions taking place, there's something seriously wrong at a higher government level.

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/higher-taxes-in-other-areas-to-make-up-for-shortfall-in-corporation-tax-green-leader-eamon-ryan-admits-40507583.html

Amadan Dubh

Dav010 wrote: »

I’m struggling to see your issue with this. Though the article is behind a paywall, the jist of it seems to be that there are benefits for investors in buying properties for social housing, which are then leased to local councils, thus providing access to social housing through private investment.

This is a bit naive. Long term leasing to the council provides income for 20 years plus and is "relatively risk free", the article is practically saying "free money". This is property we are talking about and the situation in Ireland is that we have an absolutely devastating, extreme emergency where a dramatic shift in government policy is necessary in order to cool it. Yet, apparently at the top of the market, with no where further to climb, the IT is claiming that individuals could invest in this "relatively risk free" investment with their pensions!

Amadan Dubh

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Yet, apparently at the top of the market, with no where further to climb, the IT is claiming that individuals could invest in this "relatively risk free" investment with their pensions!

Have you ever read the irish media and their continuous property pimping/advertising?

There is a good chunk of it (the IT being a fine example) who will tell you it is never ever a bad time to buy property. I would not trust anything these guys say.

Amadan Dubh

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Have you ever read the irish media and their continuous property pimping/advertising?

There is a good chunk of it (the IT being a fine example) who will tell you it is never ever a bad time to buy property. I would not trust anything these guys say.

The IT in 2005 advertising pre-construction apartments in St. Lucia!

Eclectic Econometrics

The Fed think inflation is under control, here is a different take https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/deutsche-bank-warns-of-global-time-bomb-coming-due-to-rising-inflation.html

I think the greatest risk to Irish property prices is inflation leading to higher interest rates which, in turn, cools then depresses the market. That said, if you'd have asked me 16 months ago I would've said Covid would make the market go down 5-10% within 12 months, so I obviously know nothing.

Villa05

Eclectic Econometrics wrote:

I think the greatest risk to Irish property prices is inflation leading to higher interest rates which, in turn, cools then depresses the market. That said, if you'd have asked me 16 months ago I would've said Covid would make the market go down 5-10% within 12 months, so I obviously know nothing.

At a time when we should be taking away the punch bowl, it appears that the party organisers are bringing in a tanker

Where it takes us. God knows