Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Amadan Dubh

propertyseeker wrote: »

We spend weekend researching dozens properties in Dublin 15 within our budget 350,000.
Every property going for record high on property data register!
Only 4 or 5 good condition.
We were interested in two and found out both already over 50,000 over asking and only for sale within 10 days.
This feel similar to 06/07
Do most Irish people not work for money as to me it seems crazy to spend like this, i wonder if these are funds as no person would earned this money would spend like this at worst time!

FOMO. People see covid ending and things roaring back so are fearful of having to wait another few years to buy.

am_zarathustra

Record number of mortgages were granted in April, there's a lot of cash out there and not a lot of properties. Based on the spending in town over the last couple of days the roaring back could look to be accurate but only time will tell

yagan

It really is hard to tell what way things will go. Covid may have motivated a lot who can to bring retirement forward and sell out of Dublin for a quieter less crowded bolthole to sit out another pandemic in and they'll find willing buyers of younger people wanting to be in where the supposed buzz is.

mcsean2163

propertyseeker wrote: »

We spend weekend researching dozens properties in Dublin 15 within our budget 350,000.
Every property going for record high on property data register!
Only 4 or 5 good condition.
We were interested in two and found out both already over 50,000 over asking and only for sale within 10 days.
This feel similar to 06/07
Do most Irish people not work for money as to me it seems crazy to spend like this, i wonder if these are funds as no person would earned this money would spend like this at worst time!

Yep, it's crazy. My guess is funds are gobbling up supply. The 2 up 2 downs are going sale agreed for huge prices in no time but better more family centric homes are not selling in the same area even though asking is actually below some of the sale agreed prices of the smaller homes.

yagan

timmyntc wrote: »

For remote working outside the EU, companies can just set up subsidiaries in those cheaper countries.

Many multinationals already do this too.

The impact of remote working on high cost countries (like Ireland) will be similar to the job losses incurred by outsourcing in the 90s and 2000s.

Outsourcing to india went into reverse a decade ago and it's more likely now that someone in Europe will be engaged remotely by an Indian company now.

Amadan Dubh

Eviction and rent increase ban to be extended for those receiving a covid payment for another 6 months until 12 January it appears. There is also a protection to be introduced for students who will be able to pay monthly for their rentals so they don't risk losing their full year/half year payment if covid restrictions are reintroduced.

I can't find a whole of data as to how widespread it actually is that tenants are receiving covid payments and not paying their rent. However, for those that are, they are potentially in arrears for 12 months of rent. There is no way this can be paid by them if they needed a covid payment, being realistic. But who pays?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cabinet-to-consider-extending-pandemic-protections-for-renters-1.4588330?mode=amp

Currently these people are shielded from rent increases or eviction, but the protection, which was due to expire on July 12th, will be extended to January 12th.

Landlords will also be barred from charging a tenant more than the value of two months’ rental payments in deposits and other payments as upfront charges when moving into a new property.

Under the plans, students will be given the option to pay monthly for accommodation in case there is a fourth wave of Covid-19.

JimmyVik

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Eviction and rent increase ban to be extended for those receiving a covid payment for another 6 months until 12 January it appears. There is also a protection to be introduced for students who will be able to pay monthly for their rentals so they don't risk losing their full year/half year payment if covid restrictions are reintroduced.

I can't find a whole of data as to how widespread it actually is that tenants are receiving covid payments and not paying their rent. However, for those that are, they are potentially in arrears for 12 months of rent. There is no way this can be paid by them if they needed a covid payment, being realistic. But who pays?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cabinet-to-consider-extending-pandemic-protections-for-renters-1.4588330?mode=amp

I have a friend who hasnt been paid rent in over 3 years, and still cant get the scumbag out.
I know a fair few landlords who havent been paid in two years also.

JimmyVik

A lot of people buying further out of the city now for sure. Its like 2006 all over again.
All justifying it this time by saying they can work from home.
Im waiting for all the people who are buying rural homes to work from home, to suddenly find out that WFH isnt as good as they think, or indeed allowed enough to justify the commute on the days they do have to commute.
I think there will be quite an oversupply of rural cheap homes at some point.

PropQueries

Another portfolio of housing units that are leased to AHBs (i.e. the state) have been put up for sale. This time it's 69 apartments in Tralee, Co. Kerry with 20-year leases to approved housing bodies and they're seeking c. €11 Million.

Micheál Martin really wasn't messing when he said a few weeks ago that "The big player in the housing market at the moment is the State".

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tralee-social-housing-portfolio-offers-buyer-4-66-yield-1.4587339

Mic 1972

propertyseeker wrote: »

We spend weekend researching dozens properties in Dublin 15 within our budget 350,000.
Every property going for record high on property data register!
Only 4 or 5 good condition.
We were interested in two and found out both already over 50,000 over asking and only for sale within 10 days.
This feel similar to 06/07
Do most Irish people not work for money as to me it seems crazy to spend like this, i wonder if these are funds as no person would earned this money would spend like this at worst time!

I was in the same boat for a year, just went sales agreed couple of weeks ago.
You can get the EA to tell you if you are bidding against a fund, they will tell you.
I pulled out every time i was bidding with funds, no point in doing it. They go into bidding wars against each other too. Crazy

Mic 1972

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I fully agree that I see it is inevitable within the EU. To be clear, I'm talking about a company with a presence across the EU and not just a company which only has a presence in Ireland. For example, a Google or Facebook which would have offices across the EU, as opposed to a local advertising agency in Dublin that only operates in the Irish market.

But that's always been the case. You could get transferred to another subsidiary in Europe or even outside EU, granted that there was a job opening in the destination country.


Every subsidiary manages its own budget so it's not an easy like for like replacement. A position must be approved by the subsidiary before you can get transferred

MacronvFrugals

Dublin down 22 spots to 51st in latest 'Global Liveability Index'



https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/global-liveability-index-2021/?utm_source=economist&utm_medium=daily_chart&utm_campaign=liveability21

timmyntc

yagan wrote: »

Outsourcing to india went into reverse a decade ago and it's more likely now that someone in Europe will be engaged remotely by an Indian company now.

Outsourcing to India went into reverse, but still result in lost jobs here.

But I was thinking more along the lines of factories being moved from Ireland to cheaper cost countries.

Villa05

Jmc25 wrote:

To be fair to this Government/previous Governments, I would imagine they expected that these policies would already have paid dividends and we would have reached the price point where a significant number of houses were being built some time ago. I doubt it was ever the intention for these policies to lead to the current situation where rent and purchase prices are so high, and yet there's still so little being built.

PropQueries wrote:

Another portfolio of housing units that are leased to AHBs (i.e. the state) have been put up for sale. This time it's 69 apartments in Tralee, Co. Kerry with 20-year leases to approved housing bodies and they're seeking c. €11 Million.

A quick Google of the properties shows that one of these apartments went for auction through bidx1 wit a reserve of

50,000 In 2018

2 sales on the property price register for 2019 selling at
77,000, and 85,000

The asking price in 2021 from the asking price above with long term leasing effect

159,000 In 2021

Just a micro segment of how government is making these entities very wealthy at your expense with your money and they pay no tax

Would be interesting to know if this development was ever in the hands of Nama.

Ozark707

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have a friend who hasnt been paid rent in over 3 years, and still cant get the scumbag out.
I know a fair few landlords who havent been paid in two years also.

I had a friend in a similar situation about 15 years ago. He spent the guts of 30k on legal fees/missed rent and on the final day when the scumbag was due to move out (the scumbags lawyer had washed his hands of him as well by the end) he had to go to the cash machine and get another 500 out and hand it over before he would leave. He regrets to this day that he didn't offer him 5k at the outset to leave, would have saved so much in money and stress.

Ace2007

Villa05 wrote: »

A quick Google of the properties shows that one of these apartments went for auction through bidx1 wit a reserve of

50,000 In 2018

2 sales on the property price register for 2019 selling at
77,000, and 85,000

The asking price in 2021 from the asking price above with long term leasing effect

159,000 In 2021

Just a micro segment of how government is making these entities very wealthy at your expense with your money and they pay no tax

Would be interesting to know if this development was ever in the hands of Nama.

But anyone can buy on Bidx1 though - was nothing stopping you from buying it on there cheap in 2018.

Villa05

Ace2007 wrote:

But anyone can buy on Bidx1 though - was nothing stopping you from buying it on there cheap in 2018.

You completely miss the point

Tralee is a town that thrives on tourism. The price of these apartments were in the range of a couple working in the tourism/catering sector

Government intervention through long term leasing and tax breaks for wealthy institutions has doubled the price of the housing thereby putting it out of reach of workers that keep the town sustainable

By pricing out workers of the local housing the state will have to step in and provide subsidised housing for them.

Rinse and repeat throughout the country and what you have is an incredibly dumb unsustainable policy that will eventually bring us back to a 2008 situation yet again

AlmightyCushion

Ace2007 wrote: »

But anyone can buy on Bidx1 though - was nothing stopping you from buying it on there cheap in 2018.

That isn't the point he is making. The properties weren't bought on the cheap in 2019, they were bought at market value. These long term leases from the council are so lucrative that they have caused the properties to nearly double in price in the space of 2 years. The council leases are causing massive price inflation and helping to make housing unaffordable. That isn't right.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Another portfolio of housing units that are leased to AHBs (i.e. the state) have been put up for sale. This time it's 69 apartments in Tralee, Co. Kerry with 20-year leases to approved housing bodies and they're seeking c. €11 Million.

Micheál Martin really wasn't messing when he said a few weeks ago that "The big player in the housing market at the moment is the State".

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tralee-social-housing-portfolio-offers-buyer-4-66-yield-1.4587339

Do you have a link to this quote?

MacronvFrugals

Villa05 wrote: »

You completely miss the point

Tralee is a town that thrives on tourism. The price of these apartments were in the range of a couple working in the tourism/catering sector

Government intervention through long term leasing and tax breaks for wealthy institutions has doubled the price of the housing thereby putting it out of reach of workers that keep the town sustainable

By pricing out workers of the local housing the state will have to step in and provide subsidised housing for them.

Rinse and repeat throughout the country and what you have is an incredibly dumb unsustainable policy that will eventually bring us back to a 2008 situation yet again

It's worrying that this even needs to be explained!

MacronvFrugals

awec wrote: »

Do you have a link to this quote?

https://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-increase-cso-5435218-May2021/

The Taoiseach said the government was intervening in several ways, citing social housing, the Shared Equity scheme and cost rental supports.

“Be in no doubt, right now the government is the biggest player in the housing market.”

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Do you have a link to this quote?

He's quoted in this Irish Times article published on the 9th May 2021:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/housing-is-number-one-crisis-facing-young-people-taoiseach-1.4559764

He also said in the same article:

"The State actually through one scheme or another is the big actor now in housing provision"

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-increase-cso-5435218-May2021/

I prefer your quote:

“Be in no doubt", "government", "biggest player in the housing market”.

yagan

timmyntc wrote: »

Outsourcing to India went into reverse, but still result in lost jobs here.

But I was thinking more along the lines of factories being moved from Ireland to cheaper cost countries.

That's also happened. We were once that outsourcing country when getting a job in the Fruit of the Loom factory was mortgageable.

And now China's first pharma plant outside China is nearing completion outside Dundalk.

enricoh

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-increase-cso-5435218-May2021/

So the government basically is the housing market at the moment. Surely there's another 100k jobs in construction, builders suppliers, etc etc that solely exist due to government spending on housing. There's also almost 200k in the charity industry the majority of jobs exist with government money.
It's sit back n grab the popcorn time for this country i reckon, things are gonna get hairy fast. However house prices will probably jump even higher in reality before the music stops!

Ace2007

yagan wrote: »

That's also happened. We were once that outsourcing country when getting a job in the Fruit of the Loom factory was mortgageable.

And now China's first pharma plant outside China is nearing completion outside Dundalk.

Is China coming here because we are cheap or because we are experts?

Op rolls being outsourced to Asia don't need to be smart or think they just need ideally to speak English and be able to follow a process, and it saves the company a small fortune and may even see them make more profit from service fee agreements.

timmyntc

yagan wrote: »

That's also happened. We were once that outsourcing country when getting a job in the Fruit of the Loom factory was mortgageable.

And now China's first pharma plant outside China is nearing completion outside Dundalk.

Thats what I mean. It happened and it was devastating to this country. Most rural areas never recovered.

We've slowly built up again with FDI (largely due to our tax friendly nature) and position within the EU, but as our cost of living continues to climb and with the threat of tax harmonisation on the horizon - many of the perceived advantages of investing here may soon disappear.

It's hard enough for employers here to attract workers from continental Europe due to the cost of living - with remote working changes they may not need to, and can employ directly from Spain or Portugal. Plenty of Irish people would happily make the move there too if they could get away with it.

Institutional investors aside, it looks like Irish property may decline in the near future and might never recover to the current heights.

jill_valentine

Everyone *can't* buy on Bidx1, for the record, in practice it's essentially cash buyers only, so it favours investors and II's by design.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

I prefer your quote:

“Be in no doubt", "government", "biggest player in the housing market”.

I'd like to rephrase that in English, without the usual Irish cutery:

“Be in no doubt", "government", "biggest Troll in the housing market”

Hubertj

jill_valentine wrote: »

Everyone *can't* buy on Bidx1, for the record, in practice it's essentially cash buyers only, so it favours investors and II's by design.

Much riskier as well I believe. Would a bank even lend to allow someone bid?