Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Amadan Dubh

Villa05 wrote: »

Listening to radio this morning reporting that our electricity grid is coming under serious pressure with blackouts predicted

Data centres are currently using 10% of the power with this predicted rise to 27%

One would imagine that the companies putting these facilities here would have the where with all to also build there own power source that would compensate for what is used

There appears to be no limits to what we will give away unconditionally to the most wealthy

Absolutely and the IDA lead by Martin Shanahan in his puke-coloured green tie, is the human face of the diddly eyed "Leprechaun economics" where corporate interests trump all citizens' wellbeing interests.

yagan

Ace2007 wrote: »

Again no, you think an investment manager like ILIM is solely in property? Just look at their website - They only have approx 3 billion in property.

ILIM is in investment management company, investing in equities/bonds/property/alternatives, etc.

The Germany Property Group - was well property as the name suggests.

Could you post a link with their stated portfolio breakdown?

Amadan Dubh

https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/red-c-poll-sf-gains-as-voters-trust-the-party-most-on-housing-962c9d71

Red C poll: SF gains as voters trust the party most on housing

Sinn Féin has gained support in the latest Business Post/Red C poll, with voters saying it is the party that they trust the most to solve the housing crisis.

The party is up by two points to 29 per cent, putting it level with Fine Gael.

Around 29 per cent of voters trust Sinn Féin the most on housing policy, compared to 19 per cent for Fine Gael and just 11 per cent for Fianna Fáil.

Dublin Bay South by election will be very interesting whenever it is held as we will see if these polls start to translate into meaningful voting for SF. Lynn Boylan would of course be the second SF representative if elected and she is very much the outsider but a decent fight from her even without getting elected would send shockwaves.

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

Listening to radio this morning reporting that our electricity grid is coming under serious pressure with blackouts predicted

Data centres are currently using 10% of the power with this predicted rise to 27%

One would imagine that the companies putting these facilities here would have the where with all to also build there own power source that would compensate for what is used

There appears to be no limits to what we will give away unconditionally to the most wealthy

I am open to correction, but wasn’t the proposed Apple data centre in Athenry to be powered primarily by solar/wind energy?, the Government supported this, but with all the idiot objections, they decided to build in Denmark.

Amadan Dubh

Dav010 wrote: »

I am open to correction, but wasn’t the proposed Apple data centre in Athenry to be powered primarily by solar/wind energy?, the Government supported this, but with all the idiot objections, they decided to build in Denmark.

The Denmark plan fell through as well I thought? The one that followed the abandonment of the Irish project?

The Apple data centre had a poor environmental impact, as noted by ABP and the judge who ruled on the matter. It is pathetic to think the jobs created and tax received justify it. And I would counter that the idiots are those that can be so easily bought.

cnocbui

Dav010 wrote: »

I am open to correction, but wasn’t the proposed Apple data centre in Athenry to be powered primarily by solar/wind energy?, the Government supported this, but with all the idiot objections, they decided to build in Denmark.

Not really. Apple claimed that the data centre would be fully powered from renewables, but they were not going to provide the infrastrucure, they were merely going to purchase the elctricity via the grid from renewable energy providers - meaning less available renewable energy for other Irish users if those suppliers didn't increase their capacity to add the same as Apple would be using - which was a lot: 8% of the entire country's electricity consumption if it had been built and expanded to its envisaged maximum configuration.

Typical Apple obfuscations and half-truths.

Ace2007

yagan wrote: »

Could you post a link with their stated portfolio breakdown?

There are numerous different funds, but

Property approx 3 billion: https://www.ilim.com/investment-capabilities/property/

Total assets under management - 92 billion: https://www.ilim.com/who-we-are/

So property funds make up approx. 3% of their funds. Which is no where near half that the poster had originally claimed.

Pussyhands

cnocbui wrote: »

Not really. Apple claimed that the data centre would be fully powered from renewables, but they were not going to provide the infrastrucure, they were merely going to purchase the elctricity via the grid from renewable energy providers - meaning less available renewable energy for other Irish users if those suppliers didn't increase their capacity to add the same as Apple would be using - which was a lot: 8% of the entire country's electricity consumption if it had been built and expanded to its envisaged maximum configuration.

Typical Apple obfuscations and half-truths.

This is what most of them do.

One day they wake up and say "hey, we're going to say all our electricity comes from renewables" then they'll ring up Airtricity and get a photo op.

AlmightyCushion

cnocbui wrote: »

Not really. Apple claimed that the data centre would be fully powered from renewables, but they were not going to provide the infrastrucure, they were merely going to purchase the elctricity via the grid from renewable energy providers - meaning less available renewable energy for other Irish users if those suppliers didn't increase their capacity to add the same as Apple would be using - which was a lot: 8% of the entire country's electricity consumption if it had been built and expanded to its envisaged maximum configuration.

Typical Apple obfuscations and half-truths.

Except that 8% figure is bull. It came from someone objecting to the data centre. It was based on the country's 2014 power usage. It was also based on Apple building all 8 halls. I believe they only applied for permitting for 1 hall but we're going to build 8 in the end. If they did build all 8 halls it would have taken 15 years by which time the country's overall per usage would have gone up. Also data centres run 24/7 so they use a lot of power at times when we gave excess power and wind energy such as night time. Who cares how much electricity it is using when that wind energy is sitting there unused.

It was expected to use at most 0.78 percent of our usage in 2021. If fully built (all 8 halls) it would use at most 2.5% of our electricity usage, a lot of which would be happening at times when that electricity was being generated but not used anyway.

cnocbui

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Except that 8% figure is bull. It came from someone objecting to the data centre. It was based on the country's 2014 power usage. It was also based on Apple building all 8 halls. I believe they only applied for permitting for 1 hall but we're going to build 8 in the end. If they did build all 8 halls it would have taken 15 years by which time the country's overall per usage would have gone up. Also data centres run 24/7 so they use a lot of power at times when we gave excess power and wind energy such as night time. Who cares how much electricity it is using when that wind energy is sitting there unused.

It was expected to use at most 0.78 percent of our usage in 2021. If fully built (all 8 halls) it would use at most 2.5% of our electricity usage, a lot of which would be happening at times when that electricity was being generated but not used anyway.

Nothing wrong with basing it on 2014 figures when it was being talked about in 2015.

No such thing as wind only power. The Germans even have a word that refers to windless nights when there is no energy generated from renewables - Dunkelflaute. Even here in ireland, you can easily get a week in winter with next to no wind and it being freezing cold.

According to the Eirgrid realtime energy dashboard, as of this moment, only 14.5% of Ireland's energy usage is from renewables - coal is producing 12.2% and we are importing more than renewables are generating. Last night, the renewable figure would have been negligible:



With all 8 halls going and the 230 MW estimated power draw, as of this moment -2021, not 2014 - the Apple data centre would have needed an additional 5.5% of the current baseload figure to power it.

Adding 230 MW of power usage to the country means you need to add the same capacity of CO2 based energy generation, because renewables are unrelable and intermittent, such as at right this very minute.

Ireland is facing stiff EU fines for CO2 and energy use of hundreds of millions of euros. Nothing in Apple's data centre proposal suggested they would help pay their share of those fines - unsurprisingly - they would rather Irish taxpayers did, as is usual with them.

Villa05

AlmightyCushion wrote:

It was expected to use at most 0.78 percent of our usage in 2021. If fully built (all 8 halls) it would use at most 2.5% of our electricity usage, a lot of which would be happening at times when that electricity was being generated but not used anyway.

One of Apples greatest issues is their massive cash pile, you would be doing them a favour by demanding them to build the infrastructure required to power the facility with some change for the grid.
I'm sure it would be more financially viable than cash doing nothing

Irrespective of whether it's 2.5 or 8 %. That is huge pull on the system by 1 facility that is of little benefit to the nation and potentially lands us with huge fines.

mcsean2163

cnocbui wrote: »

Nothing wrong with basing it on 2014 figures when it was being talked about in 2015.

No such thing as wind only power. The Germans even have a word that refers to windless nights when there is no energy denerated from renewables - Dunkelflaute. Even here in ireland, you can easily get a week in winter with next to no wind and it being freezing cold.

According to the Eirgrid realtime energy dashboard, as of this moment, only 14.5% of Irelands energy usage is from renewables - coal is producing 12.2% and we are importing more than renewables are generating. Last night, the renewable figure would have been negligible:



With all 8 halls going and the 230 MW estimated power draw, as of this moment -2021, not 2014 - the Apple data centre would have needed an additional 5.5% of the current baseload figure to power it.

Adding 230 MW of power usage to the country means you need to add the same capacity of CO2 based energy generation, because renewables are unrelable and intermittent, such as at right this very minute.

Ireland is facing stiff EU fines for CO2 and energy use of hundreds of millions of euros. Nothing in Apple's data centre proposal suggested they would help pay their share of those fines - unsurprisingly - they would rather Irish taxpayers did, as is usual with them.

Not to mention, hardly any real jobs in data centers. We dodged the bullet.

Ardillaun

Villa05 wrote: »

It seems odd that declining populations has led to greater challenges in housing people in the west. Could the greater financialization of housing be a significant contributing factor.

It is paradoxical. Large cities have tended to attract young people from the periphery, both for the jobs and lifestyle offered. Generally speaking, it’s a lot easier to borrow now than it was, say, in the Eighties. Households are considerably smaller as well.

Bass Reeves

Ardillaun wrote: »

It is paradoxical. Large cities have tended to attract young people from the periphery, both for the jobs and lifestyle offered. Generally speaking, it’s a lot easier to borrow now than it was, say, in the Eighties. Households are considerably smaller as well.

It's more complex than that. Even when people compare it to mass housings of the 30's they forget it was pre electrified. In the 30' houses were basically 4 walks a few windows a front and back door and a roof. There was no on suites in fact there was often no I side toilet if it was it was downstairs at the very back of the houses.there was a large amount of these houses only two bed room

In the be 50's-80's houses started to get slightly more complex and continued do so. 3 bedroom, electrification, internal toilets, a bathroom then. Central heating came along. Then washing machine's in the 70's, then fitted kitchens.

My Grandparents only put an internal bathroom in to there farmhouse some time in the 70's. I knew houses without TV's in the 80's we did not get one until 72/73 approximately.

Houses are much more complex buildings now. Houses could have a couple grand spend on telecoms provision. Regulation require a downstairs toilet, there will also be a main bathroom and an on-site. Add in a fitted Kitchen not just with presses but with appliances as well, maybe similar in the utility not to forget the granite worktop.

Just about the only thing we never started putting into our houses in Ireland is swimming pools

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It's more complex than that. Even when people compare it to mass housings of the 30's they forget it was pre electrified. In the 30' houses were basically 4 walks a few windows a front and back door and a roof. There was no on suites in fact there was often no I side toilet if it was it was downstairs at the very back of the houses.there was a large amount of these houses only two bed room

In the be 50's-80's houses started to get slightly more complex and continued do so. 3 bedroom, electrification, internal toilets, a bathroom then. Central heating came along. Then washing machine's in the 70's, then fitted kitchens.

My Grandparents only put an internal bathroom in to there farmhouse some time in the 70's. I knew houses without TV's in the 80's we did not get one until 72/73 approximately.

Houses are much more complex buildings now. Houses could have a couple grand spend on telecoms provision. Regulation require a downstairs toilet, there will also be a main bathroom and an on-site. Add in a fitted Kitchen not just with presses but with appliances as well, maybe similar in the utility not to forget the granite worktop.

Just about the only thing we never started putting into our houses in Ireland is swimming pools

I'm not sure that argument stands up to scrutiny given that developers are currently selling three-bed, a-rated houses with many of those mod-cons for c. €200k outside of Co. Dublin. And, I assume their selling prices would also include land, levies, taxes, profits etc.

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm not sure that argument stands up to scrutiny given that developers are currently selling three-bed, a-rated houses with many of those mod-cons for c. €200k outside of Co. Dublin. And, I assume their selling prices would also include land, levies, taxes, profits etc.

There is a different thread dealing with that. It has been dealt with ad nauseam

theboringfox

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm not sure that argument stands up to scrutiny given that developers are currently selling three-bed, a-rated houses with many of those mod-cons for c. €200k outside of Co. Dublin. And, I assume their selling prices would also include land, levies, taxes, profits etc.

I would be surprised if any new 3 bed anywhere selling for c 200k. I would have thought add another 50k to 100k minimum on there.

Wanderer78

theboringfox wrote:

I would be surprised if any new 3 bed anywhere selling for c 200k. I would have thought add another 50k to 100k minimum on there.

Maybe in the back arse of back arse, or some dive somewhere, but they'd be few and far between, I'd imagine

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Maybe in the back arse of back arse, or some dive somewhere, but they'd be few and far between, I'd imagine

Maybe. But it does appear to show that it's not materials, new building regulations or mod-cons that is the driving force behind current asking prices for new builds in the cities.

FromADistance

theboringfox wrote: »

I would be surprised if any new 3 bed anywhere selling for c 200k. I would have thought add another 50k to 100k minimum on there.

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/semi-detached-house-house-type-f-derryounce-phase-2-edenderry-road-portarlington-co-laois/2859384 - 230k in Portalington

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/carrigbrook-tullow-road-carlow-town-co-carlow/3204765 - 199k in Carlow

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/terraced-house-the-buttercup-redwood-tullamore-co-offaly/2541826 - 245k in Offaly.

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/terraced-house-house-type-a-the-square-drummin-village-nenagh-co-tipperary/2595422 - 215k in Tipperary.


All this shows is that developers in Dublin are ripping the piss because they can. The likes of Glenveagh are making so much money that they can buy back their own shares https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/glenveagh-properties-begins-75m-buyback-programme-1.4577725

Would sicken you.

Bass Reeves

FromADistance wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/semi-detached-house-house-type-f-derryounce-phase-2-edenderry-road-portarlington-co-laois/2859384 - 230k in Portalington

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/carrigbrook-tullow-road-carlow-town-co-carlow/3204765 - 199k in Carlow

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/terraced-house-the-buttercup-redwood-tullamore-co-offaly/2541826 - 245k in Offaly.

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/terraced-house-house-type-a-the-square-drummin-village-nenagh-co-tipperary/2595422 - 215k in Tipperary.


All this shows is that developers in Dublin are ripping the piss because they can. The likes of Glenveagh are making so much money that they can buy back their own shares https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/glenveagh-properties-begins-75m-buyback-programme-1.4577725

Would sicken you.

You have an option, WFH and move down there.

FromADistance

FromADistance wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/semi-detached-house-house-type-f-derryounce-phase-2-edenderry-road-portarlington-co-laois/2859384 - 230k in Portalington

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/carrigbrook-tullow-road-carlow-town-co-carlow/3204765 - 199k in Carlow

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/terraced-house-the-buttercup-redwood-tullamore-co-offaly/2541826 - 245k in Offaly.

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/terraced-house-house-type-a-the-square-drummin-village-nenagh-co-tipperary/2595422 - 215k in Tipperary.


All this shows is that developers in Dublin are ripping the piss because they can. The likes of Glenveagh are making so much money that they can buy back their own shares https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/glenveagh-properties-begins-75m-buyback-programme-1.4577725

Would sicken you.

Developer sells house for whatever the market will bare. Is this new to you? Most businesses operate that way.

FromADistance

Dav010 wrote: »

Developer sells house for whatever the market will bare. Is this new to you? Most businesses operate that way.

Indeed. That's all you have to say about it. Jog on.

Wanderer78

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe. But it does appear to show that it's not materials, new building regulations or mod-cons that is the driving force behind current asking prices for new builds in the cities.

Dav010 wrote: »

Developer sells house for whatever the market will bare. Is this new to you? Most businesses operate that way.

financialisation has failed, it really is time for us to grow up now, and accept this, before we completely destroy our property markets

FromADistance

Bass Reeves wrote: »

You have an option, WFH and move down there.

That's your answer to everything? I live in Dublin, I own a house, I already work from home. I don't need to move anywhere. We have learned absolutely nothing from the Celtic Tiger days of excess and obscenity. You're obviously happy enough with the current state of affairs.

Wanderer78

FromADistance wrote: »

That's your answer to everything? I live in Dublin, I own a house, I already work from home. I don't need to move anywhere. We have learned absolutely nothing from the Celtic Tiger days of excess and obscenity. You're obviously happy enough with the current state of affairs.

nope, nothing has changed, we re still allowing a primarily fire sector lead economy, and surprise surprise, we re still experiencing the same issues this causes

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

You have an option, WFH and move down there.

Not everyone can work from home.

Bass Reeves

FromADistance wrote: »

That's your answer to everything? I live in Dublin, I own a house, I already work from home. I don't need to move anywhere. We have learned absolutely nothing from the Celtic Tiger days of excess and obscenity. You're obviously happy enough with the current state of affairs.

The houses you posted earlier, the ones in Carlow are in Tullow and the ones in Nenagh are in Borriskane . As someone posed earlier about sub 250k houses at present they are in the ar5ehole of nowhere.....or nextdoor to it anyway and in the tullow case there is an introductory offer to the development. In the Portarlington development there is only two units left and they are a funny type of house did you notice that there was only one window at the front top of the house. Finally in Tullamore its the end of a development again and it a brochure picture.

Finally on property companies buying back shares they have never attracted investment from pension or outside investment funds. there value is static. a lot of investors want out so those running the companies see a chance to take them private on the cheap similar to Hibernian Reit. Am I happy with the situation, no as my children are at house buying age soon.However I recongnize the reality that to build house costs money. I alos understand the fact that if I was a trades man in Tullow or Borriskane I work for a lot less rather than commute in and out of Dublin for 3 hours a day. I also be more efficent as I would be less tired from all the travelling. If I was a concrete company I supply blocks or mass concrete 10-15% cheaper as I would get in and out of these sites way faster than doing a run down the M50 and back

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The houses you posted earlier, the ones in Carlow are in Tullow and the ones in Nenagh are in Borriskane . As someone posed earlier about sub 250k houses at present they are in the ar5ehole of nowhere.....or nextdoor to it anyway and in the tullow case there is an introductory offer to the development. In the Portarlington development there is only two units left and they are a funny type of house did you notice that there was only one window at the front top of the house. Finally in Tullamore its the end of a development again and it a brochure picture.

Finally on property companies buying back shares they have never attracted

But your primary argument for the current high asking prices for new build houses in our cities was that it was possibly due to new building regulations, materials or mod-cons. As you stated:

"Houses are much more complex buildings now. Houses could have a couple grand spend on telecoms provision. Regulation require a downstairs toilet, there will also be a main bathroom and an on-site. Add in a fitted Kitchen not just with presses but with appliances as well, maybe similar in the utility not to forget the granite worktop."

Those new building regulations, materials and mod-con costs would also apply to new build houses down the country. So, it would appear, whatever the reasons are for the price difference between the cities and outside the cities, that it's not due to new building regulations, materials or mod-cons.

Balluba

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The houses you posted earlier, the ones in Carlow are in Tullow and the ones in Nenagh are in Borriskane . As someone posed earlier about sub 250k houses at present they are in the ar5ehole of nowhere.....or nextdoor to it anyway and in the tullow case there is an introductory offer to the development.

IMO you should keep your vulgar negativity about rural areas to yourself.