Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

MacronvFrugals

They're going ahead with the crazy Shared-Equity scheme, it needs to be pointed out the Central Bank head was appointed against the wishes of the ECB, FG wanted him in there!


Central Bank paves way for shared equity scheme despite concerns

However, the Government decision was caught up in a controversy involving Mr Makhlouf in New Zealand. It emerged he claimed the accidental leak of sensitive budgetary material was a result of a hack, but a follow-up police inquiry found no evidence of a hack.

The Government stuck to its decision to appoint Mr Makhlouf despite ECB concerns, which are understood to include the fact that Mr Makhlouf is not an economist, as well as the controversies in New Zealand.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/central-bank-paves-way-for-shared-equity-scheme-despite-concerns-1.4579358


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/central-bank-paves-way-for-shared-equity-scheme-despite-concerns-1.4579358

Sheeps

Good news for home owners.

mcsean2163

Supply of housing for sale seems to be declining further....

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/ireland/property-for-sale

11,860 now

timmyntc

Sheeps wrote: »

Good news for home owners.

Yes, home owners not prospective buyers.

You'd have to be very desperate to sign up to this scheme also - getting saddled with extra debt owed to the government - no thanks.

Villa05

Dav010 wrote:

Developer sells house for whatever the market will bare. Is this new to you? Most businesses operate that way.

Most business's operate in a free market where there are not multiple barriers to supply.
Taxation and grant policies that favour 1 entity over another
Little or no penalties against hoarding of supply to manipulate price be it land or finished product

Wanderer78

Villa05 wrote: »

Most business's operate in a free market where there are not multiple barriers to supply.
Taxation and grant policies that favour 1 entity over another
Little or no penalties against hoarding of supply to manipulate price be it land or finished product

theres no such thing as a free market, all sectors interact with governance and regulation bodies

Ace2007

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Supply of housing for sale seems to be declining further....

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/ireland/property-for-sale

11,860 now

Not every house for sale is on myhome.ie though

FromADistance

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The houses you posted earlier, the ones in Carlow are in Tullow and the ones in Nenagh are in Borriskane . As someone posed earlier about sub 250k houses at present they are in the ar5ehole of nowhere.....or nextdoor to it anyway and in the tullow case there is an introductory offer to the development. In the Portarlington development there is only two units left and they are a funny type of house did you notice that there was only one window at the front top of the house. Finally in Tullamore its the end of a development again and it a brochure picture.

Finally on property companies buying back shares they have never attracted investment from pension or outside investment funds. there value is static. a lot of investors want out so those running the companies see a chance to take them private on the cheap similar to Hibernian Reit. Am I happy with the situation, no as my children are at house buying age soon.However I recongnize the reality that to build house costs money. I alos understand the fact that if I was a trades man in Tullow or Borriskane I work for a lot less rather than commute in and out of Dublin for 3 hours a day. I also be more efficent as I would be less tired from all the travelling. If I was a concrete company I supply blocks or mass concrete 10-15% cheaper as I would get in and out of these sites way faster than doing a run down the M50 and back

Houses sub 250k can be built. That's the point. I have said here before development land costs in Dublin are obscene and are largely not warranted. We can talk all we want about a housing crisis but until the cost of development land is tackled, we're going nowhere anytime soon.

Sheeps

timmyntc wrote: »

Yes, home owners not prospective buyers.

You'd have to be very desperate to sign up to this scheme also - getting saddled with extra debt owed to the government - no thanks.

That's why I said home owners and not prospective buyers.

yagan

Wanderer78 wrote: »

theres no such thing as a free market, all sectors interact with governance and regulation bodies

Government isn't supposed to bid against it's own voters, which is what is happening now simple because Fianna Fail underspent on social housing during the giveaway bubble years and are desperate to counter the rise of Sinn Fein.

Villa05

Bass Reeves wrote:

I also be more efficent as I would be less tired from all the travelling.

Strong argument there for genuine affordable housing.
Fg are the party of the people who get up early in the morning. The way we're going theyll be the party of the people that get up the day before to get to work

There are more Dublin workers living outside Dublin than there is within Dublin

timmyntc wrote:

You'd have to be very desperate to sign up to this scheme also - getting saddled with extra debt owed to the government - no thanks.

I've a funny feeling repayments will be optional

Wanderer78

yagan wrote: »

Government isn't supposed to bid against it's own voters, which is what is happening now simple because Fianna Fail underspent on social housing during the giveaway bubble years and are desperate to counter the rise of Sinn Fein.

its a mess, we must be open and honest with ourselves, our approach to housing, for decades now, has largely failed, its over, we re just arsing around with it now, and making it much worse

Villa05 wrote: »

Strong argument there for genuine affordable housing.
Fg are the party of the people who get up early in the morning. The way we're going theyll be the party of the people that get up the day before to get to work

There are more Dublin workers living outside Dublin than there is within Dublin




I've a funny feeling repayments will be optional

our primarily parties have embraced a set of values and ideologies thats now catastrophically failing, this is now clearly obvious, its time to go back to the drawing board, if these parties dont realise this soon, we could very well being experiencing the end of their era of governance, its up to them now, if they want to maintain their leading positions

Ace2007

How do you want to solve the housing "issue" though?

MacronvFrugals

Ace2007 wrote: »

How do you want to solve the housing "issue" though?

What we shouldn't be doing is introducing further demand side circumvention of the Central Banks's LTI rules

Amadan Dubh

A handy guide in the IT today on how to "slash the cost" of a €450,000 apartment. Maybe it will be of use to anyone looking at buying at the moment.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/how-to-buy-a-450-000-house-or-apartment-for-a-quarter-less-1.4578142

It may sound like a gimmick, but it isn’t. Yes, by using existing State incentives, such as the help-to-buy scheme, as well as the forthcoming shared-equity initiative, it will soon be possible to secure a significant discount on the cost of a new home.

To secure your discount, you’ll need to avail of two State incentives.

First is the help-to-buy scheme, which gives tax relief of up to 10 per cent of the property’s value, up to a maximum of €30,000 on a maximum property value of €500,000. It is currently offered at an “enhanced” rate, which is due to run out at the end of the year, but that shouldn’t cause undue expediency in potential buyers, as the scheme has been extended repeatedly.

The second is the forthcoming shared-equity scheme. According to the Department of Housing, it is designed to “bridge the gap between the first-time buyer’s maximum mortgage (plus deposit including any help-to-buy contribution), and the market price of the new home they want”.

Under the scheme the Government will take a stake in a new property worth up to 20 per cent of its purchase price, but the property must fall into certain price caps.

If you think it seems too good to be true, just hang on a minute as the article already outlines the counter argument to its proposals;

Below we’ll show you how to do it [secure a big discount on a €450k property], but it might leave you wondering if, without such incentives, which may well have an inflationary effect on property prices, you could not have just bought the home for less to begin with.

Yeah, no f--king sh-t!

That being said, the article listed a tonne of drawbacks to the government's schemes which on balance in the article actually portray them as totally inadequate. For example,

The problem for them will probably be actually finding a home – no mean feat given the crunch on supply of new homes following restrictions on activity over the past year.

Let’s look at Dublin city centre, for example, where applicants can buy an apartment for up to €500,000. If you search for a new home with these parameters on either Daft.ie or MyHome.ie, you’ll be told “No properties matched your search”.

Or what about in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, where a price cap of €450,000 is expected to apply? Again, no new homes in this price category currently meet this cap.

In Cork city, we could find just four new developments on Daft.ie under the €400,000 price level. One of these, Ballinglanna in Glanmire, has three-beds from €310,000.

My own back of the envelope, in no way verified, calculations are that the shared equity scheme will help approximately 6 people to buy a house this year, with a margin of error of 6 people in this estimate. Shambolic, inadequate and not-getting-the-message measures from the government.

Wanderer78

Ace2007 wrote: »

How do you want to solve the housing "issue" though?

its clearly obvious that direct funding much come from the public balance sheet, and we just have to live with its issues, the private sector will need to be the primary provider though, but we have largely accepted this yet, you d have to wonder how much damage will be done, until this occurs

yagan

Ace2007 wrote: »

How do you want to solve the housing "issue" though?

Bidding up prices as the government is doing certainly isn't a solution.

It's been mentioned already, ban foreign rent farming funds like Germany and New Zealand have done.

It's easy to see why foreign banks are leaving our unlevel playing field when the Irish banks have the government as a guarantor and government are outbidding home buyers that have met the lending criteria.

Electioneering is trumping relugating and the only way to stop as far as I can see is to vote the piggies out of the trough.

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

How do you want to solve the housing "issue" though?

Affordable housing and cost rentals built on state lands for the prices mentioned earlier in thread. If we take speculative demand and land costs out of the equation, no reason houses cant be built by the state at 200k or below.

Ace2007

timmyntc wrote: »

Affordable housing and cost rentals built on state lands for the prices mentioned earlier in thread. If we take speculative demand and land costs out of the equation, no reason houses cant be built by the state at 200k or below.

And who is going to build the houses? All you have to do is look at the Children's Hospital to see what happens when the government try to fund anything and use private contractors - the cost sky rockets, there are legal cases, before and during the construction, and the delays last longer than most governments.

yagan

timmyntc wrote: »

Affordable housing and cost rentals built on state lands for the prices mentioned earlier in thread. If we take speculative demand and land costs out of the equation, no reason houses cant be built by the state at 200k or below.

But Fianna Fail and Fine Gael voters who love the 2p slot machines at the seaside will be bawling on Joe Duffy about their property value falling and how it will affect their retirement in Portugal plans.

Wanderer78

Ace2007 wrote: »

And who is going to build the houses? All you have to do is look at the Children's Hospital to see what happens when the government try to fund anything and use private contractors - the cost sky rockets, there are legal cases, before and during the construction, and the delays last longer than most governments.

we have to come up with some workable plans between both the private sector and the state, our current approach's simply wont work, there also needs to be more transparency for such plans

awec

Ace2007 wrote: »

And who is going to build the houses? All you have to do is look at the Children's Hospital to see what happens when the government try to fund anything and use private contractors - the cost sky rockets, there are legal cases, before and during the construction, and the delays last longer than most governments.

Huge difference between building houses and building a hospital.

Ace2007

Wanderer78 wrote: »

we have to come up with some workable plans between both the private sector and the state, our current approach's simply wont work, there also needs to be more transparency for such plans

Can you give an example of where the government and private sector working together has ever worked out well for society?

The government for all the PS works don't have the knowledge,skills or desire to get a good deal. Most private sector companies will hold the government to ransom and get away with it. This idea that the government are going to build houses en mass isn't going to work.

What incentive is there for a private sector to change their ways?

Ace2007

awec wrote: »

Huge difference between building houses and building a hospital.

Yea it's one hospital that is costing more than any other on the planet, and yet you expect them to build houses en mass and stay within budget?

Wanderer78

Ace2007 wrote: »

Can you give an example of where the government and private sector working together has ever worked out well for society?

The government for all the PS works don't have the knowledge,skills or desire to get a good deal. Most private sector companies will hold the government to ransom and get away with it. This idea that the government are going to build houses en mass isn't going to work.

co op built residents do work, i currently live in such a home, such developments continually prove such approaches work

Ace2007

yagan wrote: »

But Fianna Fail and Fine Gael voters who love the 2p slot machines at the seaside will be bawling on Joe Duffy about their property value falling and how it will affect their retirement in Portugal plans.

Would these not affect every single home owner - no matter what party they are in. If you bought a house for 400k, and then this comes in and it's then worth 300k, and you want to move but are in negative equity - your not gong to be very happy about it?

Ace2007

Wanderer78 wrote: »

co op built residents do work, i currently live in such a home, such developments continually prove such approaches work

Can you give example of where this co op is? And is this on the large scale required, or couple houses in a square?

Wanderer78

Ace2007 wrote: »

Can you give example of where this co op is? And is this on the large scale required, or couple houses in a square?

https://cooperativehousing.ie/

https://www.ocualann.ie/

there are others, i ll try find them

land normally stays within public ownership, reducing speculation

Ace2007

Wanderer78 wrote: »

https://cooperativehousing.ie/

https://www.ocualann.ie/

there are others, i ll try find them

land normally stays within public ownership, reducing speculation

Never knew about them - how does it work - do the people in the houses own them or rent them?

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

Would these not affect every single home owner - no matter what party they are in. If you bought a house for 400k, and then this comes in and it's then worth 300k, and you want to move but are in negative equity - your not gong to be very happy about it?

If house prices were not so speculative in the first place you wouldnt find yourself in negative equity.

I think SF proposed selling "affordable housing" as a leasehold on the house/site - you cannot re-sell the house for more than the price you bought at + inflation.
If more housing was bought and sold under these types of conditions, you wouldnt have speculation and boom/bust prices.