Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

ebayissues

Anyone in investments analysis, recommendations would or should know self-control bias.

This is from morning star.

Self Control bias is an emotional human-behavioral tendency that causes people to fail to act in pursuit of their long-term overarching goals because of a lack of self-discipline in the short term. Hence avocado and toast, coffee's morning & lunch, fany holiday's etc.

C14N

ebayissues wrote: »

Anyone in investments analysis, recommendations would or should know self-control bias.

This is from morning star.

Self Control bias is an emotional human-behavioral tendency that causes people to fail to act in pursuit of their long-term overarching goals because of a lack of self-discipline in the short term. Hence avocado and toast, coffee's morning & lunch, fany holiday's etc.

I don't think anyone thinks that there aren't cases of people spending too much money on something frivolous, or that there aren't people who do this sometimes. The fact that people may sometimes take a short-term gain over a more sensible long-term one isn't really an indication though that this is a widespread issue that is behind people's inability to buy a house, or that any one generation would be more susceptible to it than another.

AlmightyCushion

Ace2007 wrote: »

The truth can be hard to accept though - a large number of people in Ireland are living beyond their means - you can get interest free credit on nearly anything these days - from furniture, to buying gym equipment.

Gone are the days of saving first and then buying - no wonder people don't have money saved for deposit.

This is true but there are a lot of people who are reasonably sensible with their money and still aren't able to buy a place.

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I bought a used newish model Iphone for 300 quid, GOMO is 10 euro a month for unlimited everything.


My dad spends 35 on Virgin Media mobile and hasn't a clue what he gets for it lol

In fairness to him he also admits if faced with todays market and 4 kids he'd be languishing on a council waiting list!

About 7 or 8 years ago, I seen my Dad's mobile bill and it was about €400 for the month. He used it a lot for calls and texts but still crazy money. I switched him over to an unlimited bundle that cost €99 a month (best value at the time). It came with unlimited data which he didn't even use. I can only imagine the money he wasted over the years by not switching his bill to one that suited his needs more.

JimmyVik

Ace2007 wrote: »

I doubt your parent lived the life that you probably do now - the amount of money that is wasted/spent on stupid things would be at an all time high in last few year.

I know myself there was a time that I could be spending 10eur a day minimum on lunch/tea break, etc - that all adds up, for a couple spending foolishly that's 20quid a day - 600 a week - planning in advance and you could save 400 of that.

The fancy phones - the cost of running a mobile - probably didn't exist in your parents time

The cost of TV packages, the fancy holidays, etc. The cost of child care probably wasn't a factor. The list in endless and it's why comparing what your folks could afford with what you can is a waste of time.

Irish People saved 61m a day in January this year - why? because we had nothing to spend it on.

Reminds me of a conversation with my nephew and his girlfriend last week.
They are supposedly saving for a house, but scrounging off anyone who will have them in the meantime. His parents have sold the house and are living in a 1 bed apartment until they go off to travel in a few months, so they cant stay with them anymore. I dont think they have paid rent to anyone they have stayed in about 4 years. Parents, uncles, grandparents.

Anyway they were moaning as usual about how they cant get on the property ladder and its disgraceful and how my generation had it so much easier yadda yadda. Same stuff i used to say to my parents.

And then later on it transpires that they are going off to stay in some swanky hotel in Kerry for a break for a week.
Oh, nice, i said. What hotel is that?
Parknasilla they said.
Oh, that place is expensive isnt it?
Oh yes it is usually, but we got a discount on the price. Its only €450 per night if we go for the week, and sure you know, after the year we have had, we deserve to treat ourselves. Sure we are saving on flights because we arent going to Dubai this year for holidays.

I kept my mouth shut, but caught the rolling eyes of his Dad beside him.

Amadan Dubh

ebayissues wrote: »

Anyone in investments analysis, recommendations would or should know self-control bias.

This is from morning star.

Self Control bias is an emotional human-behavioral tendency that causes people to fail to act in pursuit of their long-term overarching goals because of a lack of self-discipline in the short term. Hence avocado and toast, coffee's morning & lunch, fany holiday's etc.

Well I would argue that corporate interests have ensured that self-control bias is overridden by the constant infiltration of psychological and emotional manipulation in the form of advertising which permeates nearly all aspects of our lives. Particularly the smart phone. Imagine 15 years ago even where companies only had access to you in catalogues, in between TV shows, on the radio, billboards. Today, I think the average is around 3 hours per day people spend on their phones alone, that is so much time to attack the self-control of people and attack their long-term saving goals.

The bigger picture is that our entire Western economic system is built on debt and not savings. You buy a house with 80%+ borrowing, large companies constantly renewing debt facilities and issuing new corpriate bonds, government debts are perpetual etc. In fact, 5he savings of people during the pandemic was even argued to be a negative thing for the economy. Imagine that!

JimmyVik

growleaves wrote: »

If you have no landline and pay only a monthly fixed rate for a mobile you could be easily paying less than someone in the eighties paid in monthly phone bills.

£11.20 for per phone rental and 11p per minute for local calls.
That was 1988 when we got a phone in the house first.
I remember it was such an event. I had to go to the parents with all the workings of the cost of it before they would get it. And that cost was split between 6 of us and a money box beside the phone to drop whatever you spent in calls into.

JimmyVik

ebayissues wrote: »

Anyone in investments analysis, recommendations would or should know self-control bias.

This is from morning star.

Self Control bias is an emotional human-behavioral tendency that causes people to fail to act in pursuit of their long-term overarching goals because of a lack of self-discipline in the short term. Hence avocado and toast, coffee's morning & lunch, fany holiday's etc.

Filthy animal

C14N

JimmyVik wrote: »

Reminds me of a conversation with my nephew and his girlfriend last week.
They are supposedly saving for a house, but scrounging off anyone who will have them in the meantime. His parents have sold the house and are living in a 1 bed apartment until they go off to travel in a few months, so they cant stay with them anymore. I dont think they have paid rent to anyone they have stayed in about 4 years. Parents, uncles, grandparents.

Anyway they were moaning as usual about how they cant get on the property ladder and its disgraceful and how my generation had it so much easier yadda yadda. Same stuff i used to say to my parents.

And then later on it transpires that they are going off to stay in some swanky hotel in Kerry for a break for a week.
Oh, nice, i said. What hotel is that?
Parknasilla they said.
Oh, that place is expensive isnt it?
Oh yes it is usually, but we got a discount on the price. Its only €450 per night if we go for the week, and sure you know, after the year we have had, we deserve to treat ourselves. Sure we are saving on flights because we arent going to Dubai this year for holidays.

I kept my mouth shut, but caught the rolling eyes of his Dad beside him.

Rest assured, this is not normal behaviour or representative of young people in general. I don't know anyone my age who would drop €3000 on a holiday to Kerry, or anywhere else for that matter, especially if they were trying to save for a house.

jill_valentine

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

At least the current generation can factually back up their claim that the older generations had it easier! According to the recent ESRI reported study.

Just in case folks haven't seen it -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/stagnant-wages-and-expensive-housing-leave-young-people-in-ireland-worse-off-than-parents-1.4560760?mode=amp

The research found that earnings have flat-lined for young people entering the Irish labour market and that workers in their 20s are – in real terms – earning less than they did in the 1990s and 2000s.

Their situation is compounded by higher housing costs fuelled “by rapidly rising rents”. This is in part because home ownership rates for young adults have “collapsed”, the report said.

....

As a result, millennials in the 20s and 30s are likely to be the first generation in Ireland to have lower living standards than the previous one.

I'm not sure I can take another lap on the how-much-phones-actually-cost track.

yagan

Ace2007 wrote: »

Gone are the days of saving first and then buying - no wonder people don't have money saved for deposit.

I remember renting our TV!

JimmyVik

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Well I would argue that corporate interests have ensured that self-control bias is overridden by the constant infiltration of psychological and emotional manipulation in the form of advertising which permeates nearly all aspects of our lives. Particularly the smart phone. Imagine 15 years ago even where companies only had access to you in catalogues, in between TV shows, on the radio, billboards. Today, I think the average is around 3 hours per day people spend on their phones alone, that is so much time to attack the self-control of people and attack their long-term saving goals.

The bigger picture is that our entire Western economic system is built on debt and not savings. You buy a house with 80%+ borrowing, large companies constantly renewing debt facilities and issuing new corpriate bonds, government debts are perpetual etc. In fact, 5he savings of people during the pandemic was even argued to be a negative thing for the economy. Imagine that!

The limits on credit cards these days are shocking.
I know people who think they are a target. If heard bragging contests in the office (back when there were offices) about how much people owed on their credit cards.

JimmyVik

C14N wrote: »

Rest assured, this is not normal behaviour or representative of young people in general. I don't know anyone my age who would drop €3000 on a holiday to Kerry, or anywhere else for that matter, especially if they were trying to save for a house.

Unfortunately I know quite a few myself.

JimmyVik

yagan wrote: »

I remember renting our TV!

RTV rentals. fiver a week

C14N

JimmyVik wrote: »

Unfortunately I know quite a few myself.

Great, but the fact that you know some people who are moochers and bad with money doesn't make them representative or conveniently explain away all problems with the property market.

timmyntc

JimmyVik wrote: »

Unfortunately I know quite a few myself.

These kinds of people have existed in the past too - unless the proportions of them have massively changed (which I doubt), it is not the reason for housing being so unaffordable nowadays.

In the past people drank far more, so much of the wages wasted in the pub. Same with smoking too - both of these are on the decline, Paddy doesnt waste all his money on booze and fags anymore. And yet he still cant afford a house. Go figure

KBH2020

Jmc25 wrote: »

Last year definitely. Not seeming so this year. I've seen a three bed terraced in Artane listed for 380k (a stretch on last year's prices but I could suck it up), with a bid of 475k. Granted, that's the most extreme example, but this is what's happening.

Totally agree with this and your previous point about those who have not been squeezed out but won't compromise as not looking for anything special. The prices were bad enough last year but now in hindsight they look like great deals. We have come to terms with the fact we need to look at the asking price and need another 55k-70k on top of the asking price to be the winning bidder. After working and saving hard for the last 5 years to get to this point, it is beyond demoralizing. VERY hard to swallow spending 60k more on a house that was "worth" 60k less last year. And that's if you have the extra 60k (this is the 400-500k region we are seeing in D12.) I genuinely feel everyone spending 60k more than what comparable houses sold for last year must have massive inheritances from families because when its your own hard earned cash that took you years to save..it is very hard to come to terms with this. Especially as we are not talking about mansions here..in many cases these houses need work done to them. Hard to know if things will remain at this level, improve or get worse. Either way it will be SF votes from us.. "the people who get up early in the morning"!

Amadan Dubh

jill_valentine wrote: »

Just in case folks haven't seen it -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/stagnant-wages-and-expensive-housing-leave-young-people-in-ireland-worse-off-than-parents-1.4560760?mode=amp



I'm not sure I can take another lap on the how-much-phones-actually-cost track.

Since the growth of the 00s turned out to be artifical, it was not crazy that a significant correction would occur after it was found out as such. However, is what has happened the last 10 years been a lot better? No, as far as I can see. For example, where is the infrastructure and income tax reform that should've come with a booming economy? There is a reason the ESRI have been for the last few years warning about the concentration of our economy in one small sector; MNC activity and a few companies contributing so much to our exchequer. Now the chickens of 10s growth are coming home to roost with post-Brexit EU efforts to attack our corporate tax regime and the OECD level harmonisation efforts. We hitched our wagon to US hyper growth capitalism and as a result are extremely vulnerable should a big change occur in the international tax regime for corporates.

yagan

timmyntc wrote: »

In the past people drank far more, so much of the wages wasted in the pub.

How much of that was on credit though?

I remember having to wait 6 weeks for credit card approval around 1999 and I was in a solid job, weekly pay checks going into the same bank processing the card etc... yet within four years people were being approved for credit cards that they hadn't applied for.

I wish I had kept a few of those "congratulations, you've been approved for a €10.000 credit limit" from banks that didn't even have a high street presence here.

I heard an Offaly hurler on the radio talk about blowing €800.000 on his gambling addiction in the last 13 years. He'd only have access to a weekly paycheck before casino economics were unleashed.

Balluba

KBH2020 wrote: »

Totally agree with this and your previous point about those who have not been squeezed out but won't compromise as not looking for anything special. The prices were bad enough last year but now in hindsight they look like great deals. We have come to terms with the fact we need to look at the asking price and need another 55k-70k on top of the asking price to be the winning bidder. After working and saving hard for the last 5 years to get to this point, it is beyond demoralizing. VERY hard to swallow spending 60k more on a house that was "worth" 60k less last year. And that's if you have the extra 60k (this is the 400-500k region we are seeing in D12.)

David McWilliams might be right when he called for a buyers strike.

Ace2007

C14N wrote: »

Great, but the fact that you know some people who are moochers and bad with money doesn't make them representative or conveniently explain away all problems with the property market.

But When you have shows like "How to be good with money" on tv - it shows that it is a problem in Ireland.

There are many other issues as well

I would love to see the figures of what credit in Ireland in 1980s was compared with now.

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

But When you have shows like "How to be good with money" on tv - it shows that it is a problem in Ireland.

There are many other issues as well

I would love to see the figures of what credit in Ireland in 1980s was compared with now.

Again - anecdotes. Can you back any of this up with statistics to prove that increased use of loans and credit is what makes housing so inaccessible for current generation??

Ace2007

timmyntc wrote: »

Again - anecdotes. Can you back any of this up with statistics to prove that increased use of loans and credit is what makes housing so inaccessible for current generation??

I never said that's what making house inaccessible for the current generation - that was you reading one thing, but having that stuck in your head and assuming it true.

I said that young people can save more - some complain that they can't afford the deposit - and how could they when they are careless with money.

Another poster gave example about a couple paying 400 a night for a holiday because of the year we've had attitude... you seem to think this is one off - and maybe among your friends it doesn't happen - but i know plenty living that life, and with the CC max out - while still saying they can't get a mortgage.

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

I never said that's what making house inaccessible for the current generation - that was you reading one thing, but having that stuck in your head and assuming it true.

I said that young people can save more - some complain that they can't afford the deposit - and how could they when they are careless with money.

Another poster gave example about a couple paying 400 a night for a holiday because of the year we've had attitude... you seem to think this is one off - and maybe among your friends it doesn't happen - but i know plenty living that life, and with the CC max out - while still saying they can't get a mortgage.

And yet again more anecdotes - you insist that this is much more prevalent than any of us think but yet you cant provide a single statistic to prove your point?

KBH2020

[QUOTE=Balluba;117293721
David McWilliams might be right when he called for a buyers strike.[/QUOTE]

Said the same thing to my partner the other day. The irony is we are all in the same boat but doing this to each other with bidding/being willing to pay excessive amounts. If everyone said "no i'm not willing to pay that for this house" then the prices would decrease. We actually have the power but only as a collective. Irish generally have a very individualistic mentality though. I think elsewhere people are much better at uniting in opposition. Some things that happen/are accepted here would cause out and out major protests around the world.

SmokyMo

KBH2020 wrote: »

Totally agree with this and your previous point about those who have not been squeezed out but won't compromise as not looking for anything special. The prices were bad enough last year but now in hindsight they look like great deals. We have come to terms with the fact we need to look at the asking price and need another 55k-70k on top of the asking price to be the winning bidder. After working and saving hard for the last 5 years to get to this point, it is beyond demoralizing. VERY hard to swallow spending 60k more on a house that was "worth" 60k less last year. And that's if you have the extra 60k (this is the 400-500k region we are seeing in D12.) I genuinely feel everyone spending 60k more than what comparable houses sold for last year must have massive inheritances from families because when its your own hard earned cash that took you years to save..it is very hard to come to terms with this. Especially as we are not talking about mansions here..in many cases these houses need work done to them. Hard to know if things will remain at this level, improve or get worse. Either way it will be SF votes from us.. "the people who get up early in the morning"!

Someone showed me a house for sale in inchicore, starting price 475, current bid is over 650 if I remember correctly. Mental, given the area is a kip.

cnocbui

KBH2020 wrote: »

Said the same thing to my partner the other day. The irony is we are all in the same boat but doing this to each other with bidding/being willing to pay excessive amounts. If everyone said "no i'm not willing to pay that for this house" then the prices would decrease. We actually have the power but only as a collective. Irish generally have a very individualistic mentality though. I think elsewhere people are much better at uniting in opposition. Some things that happen/are accepted here would cause out and out major protests around the world.

Any examples of buyers strikes elsewhere in the world? They certainly aren't happening in Australia, NZ, Canada or the US.

Ace2007

timmyntc wrote: »

And yet again more anecdotes - you insist that this is much more prevalent than any of us think but yet you cant provide a single statistic to prove your point?

But other posters are saving it as well, you want stats to prove it?

You know that are loads of reasons why couples can't get a mortgage or can't afford the deposit - but all you say is show me proof etc...

SmokyMo

KBH2020 wrote: »

Said the same thing to my partner the other day. The irony is we are all in the same boat but doing this to each other with bidding/being willing to pay excessive amounts. If everyone said "no i'm not willing to pay that for this house" then the prices would decrease. We actually have the power but only as a collective. Irish generally have a very individualistic mentality though. I think elsewhere people are much better at uniting in opposition. Some things that happen/are accepted here would cause out and out major protests around the world.

never gonna happen and also a very silly idea.
A better way would be to unite and pressure your local TD to engage their lukewarm IQ to sort this out. Housing is hard task but its definitely not a complex issue to fix.

Cyrus

SmokyMo wrote: »

never gonna happen and also a very silly idea.
A better way would be to unite and pressure your local TD to engage their lukewarm IQ to sort this out. Housing is hard task but its definitely not a complex issue to fix.

looking forward to seeing vote no1 smokymo posters :cool:

cnocbui

timmyntc wrote: »

These kinds of people have existed in the past too - unless the proportions of them have massively changed (which I doubt), it is not the reason for housing being so unaffordable nowadays.

In the past people drank far more, so much of the wages wasted in the pub. Same with smoking too - both of these are on the decline, Paddy doesnt waste all his money on booze and fags anymore. And yet he still cant afford a house. Go figure

Weren't taxes on alcohol and cigarettes a fraction of what they now are? And what did a litre of petrol cost and VAT sure as hell wasn't 23%.