Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Wanderer78

Ace2007 wrote: »

Never knew about them - how does it work - do the people in the houses own them or rent them?

my current home was built under such an approach in the 70's, so its been around a long time, just on a small scale. the properties are normally privately owned, so occupants do own them, and are allowed to sell them on, but the land normally remains in public ownership. many investors are inherently put off by these conditions, as it reduces their control of the situation, i.e. they ll have to interact with state bodies, in order to do so, this isnt attractive to many investors, i.e. reducing speculation

yagan

Ace2007 wrote: »

Would these not affect every single home owner - no matter what party they are in. If you bought a house for 400k, and then this comes in and it's then worth 300k, and you want to move but are in negative equity - your not gong to be very happy about it?

Exactly, which is why there was only outrage when houses were snapped up for rent as having the neighbours from hell moved in next door would also bring down values.

No one gave a **** when apartments were exempted from the new stamp duty hikes.

The comfortably housed probably also know that their pensions derive return from these funds so they don't care as long as it doesn't affect their cul de sac.

Ace2007

yagan wrote: »

Exactly, which is why there was only outrage when houses were snapped up for rent as having the neighbours from hell moved in next door would also bring down values.

No one gave a **** when apartments were exempted from the new stamp duty hikes.

The comfortably housed probably also know that their pensions derive return from these funds so they don't care as long as it doesn't affect their cul de sac.

Government/ PS workers are all in DB Schemes, so their pensions aren't actually affected if the funds go up or down.

Ace2007

timmyntc wrote: »

If house prices were not so speculative in the first place you wouldnt find yourself in negative equity.

I think SF proposed selling "affordable housing" as a leasehold on the house/site - you cannot re-sell the house for more than the price you bought at + inflation.
If more housing was bought and sold under these types of conditions, you wouldnt have speculation and boom/bust prices.

Ok, so i get how Co-op houses could work but i don't see how they will solve this issues - as do people en mass want to live in these types of houses? If people still want to live in Blackrock, or Clontarf etc, the houses prices are still going to be affected?

The crazy higher house prices aren't being pushed up by those eligible for these types of houses currently?

It's an option to solve social housing and potentially homelessness but i don't see how it takes the heat out of the market.

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

Ok, so i get how Co-op houses could work but i don't see how they will solve this issues - as do people en mass want to live in these types of houses? If people still want to live in Blackrock, or Clontarf etc, the houses prices are still going to be affected?

The crazy higher house prices aren't being pushed up by those eligible for these types of houses currently?

It's an option to solve social housing and potentially homelessness but i don't see how it takes the heat out of the market.

It gives people a guaranteed cheaper alternative. The prices are moreless fixed, so there will be less demand for houses in private market, which will in turn bring down the prices of those.

Of course it wont change the 1m+ price bracket, but it will do a lot for the low to mid sections of the market. And I'm sure there could be scope to expand the scheme in future if its successful, such that the state may be the biggest builder and even more supply comes in at "affordable" prices, which would work further to cool the market.

The alternative is what FG & councils have been trying to do, sell public land to developers and developers build houses and sell them at market prices which is far more expensive.

genericgoon

Ace2007 wrote: »

Ok, so i get how Co-op houses could work but i don't see how they will solve this issues - as do people en mass want to live in these types of houses? If people still want to live in Blackrock, or Clontarf etc, the houses prices are still going to be affected?

The crazy higher house prices aren't being pushed up by those eligible for these types of houses currently?

It's an option to solve social housing and potentially homelessness but i don't see how it takes the heat out of the market.

People may prefer to buy their own house outright but if a suitable alternative (co-op purchase housing, secure affordable tenancy) is available then many will choose those alternatives if available at a sufficient discount. Substitution effects are hardly controversial economic theory. How much of current inflation is driven by desperation rather than any love for the idea of home ownership.

Certainly the above approach makes more sense than the current supply side arguments that luxury (in terms of price point) BTR apartments will (eventually) trickle down to real reductions in median prices/rents.

Ace2007

timmyntc wrote: »

It gives people a guaranteed cheaper alternative. The prices are moreless fixed, so there will be less demand for houses in private market, which will in turn bring down the prices of those.

Of course it wont change the 1m+ price bracket, but it will do a lot for the low to mid sections of the market. And I'm sure there could be scope to expand the scheme in future if its successful, such that the state may be the biggest builder and even more supply comes in at "affordable" prices, which would work further to cool the market.

The alternative is what FG & councils have been trying to do, sell public land to developers and developers build houses and sell them at market prices which is far more expensive.

Potentially - i just don't see the land available in areas that can build houses en mass for those who need them, in the areas that they want.

One interesting point i noted in the website - houses in Ballymun - Houses in the final phase of the project were some 80k more expensive for those in the initial phases, so even under that set up - they can't control costs, or else they are making some profit on the final built - to put into context the 4 bed homes were 60% more expensive to buy in the final phase while 3 bet where 25%

3-bed and 4-bed homes at prices starting from €140,000, with the final phase of houses offered at €178,000 for a 3-bed and €224,000 for a 4-bed. The project was heavily oversubscribed.

https://www.ocualann.ie/new-page-10

yagan

Ace2007 wrote: »

Government/ PS workers are all in DB Schemes, so their pensions aren't actually affected if the funds go up or down.

Are you asserting that private pensions aren't players in this market and that only PS workers are homeowners in Ireland?

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

Potentially - i just don't see the land available in areas that can build houses en mass for those who need them, in the areas that they want.

One interesting point i noted in the website - houses in Ballymun - Houses in the final phase of the project were some 80k more expensive for those in the initial phases, so even under that set up - they can't control costs, or else they are making some profit on the final built - to put into context the 4 bed homes were 60% more expensive to buy in the final phase while 3 bet where 25%



https://www.ocualann.ie/new-page-10

Thats incredibly disingenuous of you to cut this bit out of the quote:

Superb detached and semi-detached A2 rated 2- bed, 3-bed and 4-bed homes at prices starting from €140,000, with the final phase of houses offered at €178,000 for a 3-bed and €224,000 for a 4-bed. The project was heavily oversubscribed.

It says nowhere in that article that prices rised on later phases or that they could keep costs down. 140k was obviously starting price for 2 beds.
End of terrace houses tend to go for a higher price also, so the price quoted is likely 2 bed duplex or mid terrace.

cnocbui

FromADistance wrote: »

That's your answer to everything? I live in Dublin, I own a house, I already work from home. I don't need to move anywhere. We have learned absolutely nothing from the Celtic Tiger days of excess and obscenity. You're obviously happy enough with the current state of affairs.

What is the point of your combative reply? You aren't in the market complaining about housing costs, so why complain about a suggestion that isn't directed at or applicable to you?

If 10% of people who can work from home, move out of Dublin to live in places with cheaper housing, that would take a bit of pressure off the housing market in Dublin. It might even see the upward pressure on prices diminish somewhat.

If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. It's not realistic to be wanting capital city housing to be as cheap as remote rural locations. Doesn't happen anywhere else in the OECD. Australia has vastly more land, with a fraction of the population density of Ireland, and yet prices in Melbourne and Sydney are far higher than Dublin. Even Australia's actual capital city, Canberra, has an average house price of €540,000, and it's more of a plush rural town, if you ask me.

Reduce VAT on building products - maybe as a rebate to the home buyer, not on the materials; reduce council charges, make solicitors and REA fees fixed, not percentages. Reduce stamp duty. Change the laws relating to property transactions to simplify the stupid system. Computerise all property titles and simplify the whole process. And for goodness sake, overhaul and change the dreadful NIMBYism centric planning laws. No more personal liking for natural stone facades by certain planning officers, no more; you aren't an in-bred local from a brother sister union, so no planning permission for you; you are from what country? Ha, ha, ha, ho, ho, ho.

And get the REITs and other large scale investors out of residential housing market.

Ace2007

timmyntc wrote: »

Thats incredibly disingenuous of you to cut this bit out of the quote:



It says nowhere in that article that prices rised on later phases or that they could keep costs down. 140k was obviously starting price for 2 beds.
End of terrace houses tend to go for a higher price also, so the price quoted is likely 2 bed duplex or mid terrace.

So it costs 60% more to build a 4 bed than a 2 bed??? Really? Something not adding up there

“End of terrace houses tend to go for higher price” implies that your selling based on the market - should end of terrace not be selling for the same price as mid Terrace given that they are for social housing anyway?

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

So it costs 60% more to build a 4 bed than a 2 bed??? Really? Something not adding up there

“End of terrace houses tend to go for higher price” implies that your selling based on the market - should end of terrace not be selling for the same price as mid Terrace given that they are for social housing anyway?

An end of terrace typically has more land and garden space. Will need more insulation as it has more external walls.

Also if you had looked at the specifics of that development, end of terraces are built totally differently to mid terrace. The website you linked has a gallery of photos from the development.

The 4 beds look to be 3 stories as opposed to 2 also, so thats an extra cost.
Hardly surprising that 2 beds are cheaper than 4 beds.

Ace2007

timmyntc wrote: »

The 4 beds look to be 3 stories as opposed to 2 also, so thats an extra cost.
Hardly surprising that 2 beds are cheaper than 4 beds.

Of course not but 60% dearer?

Bass Reeves

timmyntc wrote: »

An end of terrace typically has more land and garden space. Will need more insulation as it has more external walls.

Also if you had looked at the specifics of that development, end of terraces are built totally differently to mid terrace. The website you linked has a gallery of photos from the development.

The 4 beds look to be 3 stories as opposed to 2 also, so thats an extra cost.
Hardly surprising that 2 beds are cheaper than 4 beds.

Spec's for two beds may be totally different. May single open plan Kitchen/ living dining area. Maybe no ensuite or utility.

4 bed may have separate living, dining and kitchen and two ensuite rooms especially if three stories. But hey we have a load of experts on here obviously they have being involved in the construction industry. They obviously have been I. A foundation pouring concrete and putting slates on roofs. Ya load of plasterers, Plummers and carpenters on here

awec

No pics of the inside or floor plans for those?

Why do they have chimneys?

Bass Reeves

awec wrote: »

No pics of the inside or floor plans for those?

Why do they have chimneys?

When were they build and put for sale. I know of at least one cooperation housing scheme that is in trouble. They were too slow building and prices have escalated. They are struggling to finance the last if it.

The chimneys may be just for aesthetic purposes. However the scheme may have being connected to natural gas as well. They do not look structurally like a normal chimney. They are for gas or a pellet boiler at the most

Wanderer78

Bass Reeves wrote: »

When were they build and put for sale. I know of at least one cooperation housing scheme that is in trouble. They were too slow building and prices have escalated. They are struggling to finance the last if it.

The chimneys may be just for aesthetic purposes. However the scheme may have being connected to natural gas as well. They do not structurally like a normal chimney. They are for gas or a pellet boiler at the most

co op building would need to be accompanied by other approaches, it alone wont solve our housing issues, it would also need stronger supports from the state, in order to be truly effective

PommieBast

Ace2007 wrote: »

Not every house for sale is on myhome.ie though

From personal experience I do wonder whether the opposite is also true..

mcsean2163

Ace2007 wrote: »

Not every house for sale is on myhome.ie though

True but the number on myhome, (primary property site), has dropped instead of increasing contrary to the view expressed by propqueries.

We've a viewing arranged for an expensive house, in fact about €250k more than 2019, I'd guess. Should we hold off for the property flood? I'd definitely think of doing it but so far no evidence of that flood on the horizon..... so maybe we just pay the extra €250,000…??

awec

mcsean2163 wrote: »

True but the number on myhome, (primary property site), has dropped instead of increasing contrary to the view expressed by propqueries.

We've a viewing arranged for an expensive house, in fact about €250k more than 2019, I'd guess. Should we hold off for the property flood? I'd definitely think of doing it but so far no evidence of that flood on the horizon..... so maybe we just pay the extra €250,000…??

What % is that additional 250k of the 2019 price?

Ace2007

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Supply of housing for sale seems to be declining further....

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/ireland/property-for-sale

11,860 now

Ace2007 wrote: »

Not every house for sale is on myhome.ie though

mcsean2163 wrote: »

True but the number on myhome, (primary property site), has dropped instead of increasing contrary to the view expressed by propqueries.

We've a viewing arranged for an expensive house, in fact about €250k more than 2019, I'd guess. Should we hold off for the property flood? I'd definitely think of doing it but so far no evidence of that flood on the horizon..... so maybe we just pay the extra €250,000…??

Daft has 15,536 properties for sale in Ireland

mcsean2163

Ace2007 wrote: »

Daft has 15,536 properties for sale in Ireland

They seem to stay up longer on daft. I'll follow them both, just have been focussed on myhome and number of properties falling on it.

mcsean2163

awec wrote: »

What % is that additional 250k of the 2019 price?

Over 25%. 2019 price a guess.

DataDude

mcsean2163 wrote: »

They seem to stay up longer on daft. I'll follow them both, just have been focussed on myhome and number of properties falling on it.

Can confirm I'm seeing the same. It did increase fairly rapidly from a low of 11,800 up to about 12,650 in April/Early May. It stalled out at that level and is actually back down to 12,550 today. Quite surprising really.

I look in a similar range to you and I definitely hadn't seen anywhere close to a 25% increase in asking on any properties vs last year. Maybe 5-10%. There was one outlier today, I wonder if it's the one you refer to?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/58-avoca-park-blackrock-co-dublin/4505134

That would have sold for around 850-950 last year. But I'd be absolutely stunned if it got anywhere near asking this year. Asking looks a joke, so if this is the one, I'd steer well clear!

flexcon

Even those numbers are bogus

Take this development

12 units available. Nope. All gone
https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/harpers-creek-glounthaune-co-cork/1160863

5 units available. Nope. All gone
https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/gleann-fia-tower-blarney-co-cork/2622421

5 units available. Nope. All gone.
https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/janeville-maple-avenue-carrigaline-co-cork/1118125


In fact from what I can tell, there is about 10
New houses in cork over 420K available on new builds…. 10.

Graham

Mod Note

hubertj, threadban lifted.

mcsean2163

DataDude wrote: »

Can confirm I'm seeing the same. It did increase fairly rapidly from a low of 11,800 up to about 12,650 in April/Early May. It stalled out at that level and is actually back down to 12,550 today. Quite surprising really.

I look in a similar range to you and I definitely hadn't seen anywhere close to a 25% increase in asking on any properties vs last year. Maybe 5-10%. There was one outlier today, I wonder if it's the one you refer to?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/58-avoca-park-blackrock-co-dublin/4505134

That would have sold for around 850-950 last year. But I'd be absolutely stunned if it got anywhere near asking this year. Asking looks a joke, so if this is the one, I'd steer well clear!

Nope. Not a Dublin one, convinced my wife to take a look. Big markup, IMHO but at this point we need to get moving...

mcsean2163

A fund building a build to rent scheme referred to European court of justice....?

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/proposed-16-storey-height-of-project-at-old-bailey-gibson-site-referred-to-court-of-justice-of-the-eu-b14e7ad0

Sheeps

NIMBYs strike again. The housing crisis will never end because most people in the country don't actually want any of the solutions to it.

cnocbui

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Nope. Not a Dublin one, convinced my wife to take a look. Big markup, IMHO but at this point we need to get moving...

If you need to buy, buy. So many people seem to be doing the equivalent of share market day-trading: relying on timing dips which are not guarunteed to come at all.