Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Amadan Dubh · 28-05-2021 11:15AM

Ace2007 wrote: »

The article though states that he is a "28-year-old graduate architect" and "The median house price in this area is €615,000, which is around 20 times my salary" - so basically his salary is 30k a year which is a new grad salary. New Grads shouldn't really be looking to buy a house straight out of college.

He states " I don’t want to live in an exurban area, commuting everywhere by car and paying a mortgage for my whole life"

So we have a 28 year old recent graduate, whose on approx 30k a year looking and talking about houses costing 615k. He then goes on to state that he doesn't want to be paying a mortgage for his whole life.

I'm sorry but this lad is living in cloud cuckoo land. Why does the Irish times publish this crap - it's alienates a large section of their readers and instead highlights how privilege a certain cohort believe they are, i.e. buying 600k houses straight out of college.

I put up some random houses there recently that were reasonable price and in decent locations -
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/243-carnlough-road-cabra-dublin-7/4499320

If your both on "good" incomes, with savings in bank - property like the above - any many others around should be within reach.

That's an awful house and not a great area. But what FTB couple (as an individual can't afford that place) has 40k just sitting in the bank to buy a place? Even if, that's still borrowing 90% of the purchase price. Insanity, particularly if people think that is normal in some way to borrow that much of the purchase house.

Ace2007 · 28-05-2021 11:16AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Agreed regarding salary of 30k buying a gaf in a leafy burb.

But its the hopelessness that really got me, this cohort will lash out 100% when given the next opportunity!

The mad thing is though may of the affluent in the area will lose out if SF come in and put taxes on wealthy individuals, or put up LPT in certain areas. It's easy to make threats but pushing through and voting in a party that could cost their families long term is a different story.

Cyrus · 28-05-2021 11:20AM

JDD wrote: »

I completely agree with this. My parents bought in Sandymount in the 80's. My Dad was in job, in the public service, which is pretty much the exact same job that I am in now. My mum was a housewife, so no income.

My husband earns the same as I do, so we have double the spending power my father had. Now I completely understand that times change and suburbs become more exclusive and there's a lot more people, on higher incomes, chasing houses than there was in the early 80's. So I completely understood that I needed to downgrade my expectations. I knew I wasn't going to get a four bed period house like my parents did.

What i didn't expect was how far I had to downgrade my expectations. No way would I be buying even a small terraced house in Sandymount. No way would I get anything along the Dart line that wasn't over an hours commute into the city. What I could get was an ex-council house inside the M50, or a new build terraced house outside it.

Now, this sounds like first world problems, and it is. And I very much understand that I am in the very lucky position that i can actually buy a house. And I understand that a house next door to my parents is not some sort of god given right. But wow - the difference between what my father could afford on his single salary, and what myself and my husband can afford on double that is shocking.

I do think that some of the reason we have ended up in this place is years of mismanagement of housing by the government. It's not just the free market that landed us here. It has been a lack of willpower to structure our housing system in such a way that vast swathes of properties are overpriced. Why has there been a lack of willpower? Of course a proportion of it is lobbying by vested interests, and the rest is just incompetence and fear of doing anything that might rock the boat come the next election.

I am your absolute traditional right-of-centre middle class vote-in-every-election voter. And it is likely I will get over my squeamishness with SF and vote for them in the next election.

And what do you think Sinn Fein will offer you as a family of two reasonable incomes at the higher tax rate with the ability to buy your own house? It certainly wont be a house in sandymount thats for sure.

Unfortunately the world moves on, when your dad was a civil servant with one income it was probably a relatively well paid job. Nowadays as you say two incomes is the norm but you are now competing with two Googlers, or two accountants or 2 solicitors, who will all earn a lot more and who also want to live in Sandymount.

Browney7 · 28-05-2021 11:21AM

Marcusm wrote: »

That’s what I was wondering, it’s just a delayed reassessment rather than a guaranteed increase. The cap is still in place and has become a target rather than a cap. There are reasonable vacancies around town and, taking appraisal of two empty flats in the house next to me and a friend who is yet to receive a single inquiry about a modern apartment, I don’t think there is that much pent up demand as would support substantial increases on last year.

But presumably your friend is advertising the rental at a rent they'd hope to get as opposed to what they realistically will get (as is their right). The impact of this is then that your friend's (and all other vacant ones around town!) apartment is used for comparison purposes to justify 4 to 8% rent increases for other people in the area come rent review time.

Varadkar getting caught on the hop saying it's a "loophole" seems quite foolish. It's exactly how the legislation was supposed to be and no clause was inserted in the Covid legislation saying that the Covid emergency period didn't count towards determining the period between allowable review dates.

Like everything when it comes to the property market here, no one will be happy: landlords stuck well below what the REIT down the road is getting will say 8% is still a great deal for the tenant and they're being screwed, tenants getting an 8% increase will say how unfair it all is.

Cyrus · 28-05-2021 11:22AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Agreed regarding salary of 30k buying a gaf in a leafy burb.

But its the hopelessness that really got me, this cohort will lash out 100% when given the next opportunity!

its not hopeless though, if he is any good his earning potential far exceed what he currently earns, by 35 that could be 70k/100k/more

it's clickbait and not a great reflection on the person doing the moaning imo.

Graduate on 30k moans because he cant buy a house in blackrock, well duh :pac:

Ace2007 · 28-05-2021 11:22AM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

That's an awful house and not a great area. But what FTB couple (as an individual can't afford that place) has 40k just sitting in the bank to buy a place? Even if, that's still borrowing 90% of the purchase price. Insanity, particularly if people think that is normal in some way to borrow that much of the purchase house.

How much do you think FTB having in bank account. I would expect anyone buying a house to at least that much, if not more - if they have been planning to buy for the last 3/4 years.

MacronvFrugals · 28-05-2021 11:23AM

Ace2007 wrote: »

The mad thing is though may of the affluent in the area will lose out if SF come in and put taxes on wealthy individuals, or put up LPT in certain areas. It's easy to make threats but pushing through and voting in a party that could cost their families long term is a different story.

Your advising paying 380k for a house in Cabra! but this will go down like a lead balloon when the parents tell the neighbors where young William has moved to :pac:

I live very close to Cabra and its very community oriented and a nice place to live imo but just as gentrification has pushed out the locals making them increasingly angry the same is happening in the leafy burbs, the people FF/FG rely on!

Cyrus · 28-05-2021 11:23AM

Ace2007 wrote: »

I was curious to see what is available in Blackrock - granted not much given the area - but he's what appears to be a lovely house
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/24-stradbrook-close-blackrock-county-dublin-a94r681/4503939

150k cheaper than what he was looking at.

but but but thats more than a 10 minute walk to his support bubble :rolleyes:

28-05-2021 11:33AM

Cyrus wrote: »

its not hopeless though, if he is any good his earning potential far exceed what he currently earns, by 35 that could be 70k/100k/more

it's clickbait and not a great reflection on the person doing the moaning imo.

Graduate on 30k moans because he cant buy a house in blackrock, well duh :pac:

I think you're missing the problem. That worker could be on 100k and still wouldn't be able to afford in the area he's talking about.

Amadan Dubh · 28-05-2021 11:33AM

Ace2007 wrote: »

How much do you think FTB having in bank account. I would expect anyone buying a house to at least that much, if not more - if they have been planning to buy for the last 3/4 years.

3/4 years would give them €40k cash savings? The only FTB I know who have had that are those staying at home into their late 20s/30s or else having parents/inheritance gifted to them.

Try 6/8 years and also tell the couple they can save like maniacs for that time just to be able to borrow 90% of the purchase price for a basic house in a below decent area. You wouldn't be long finding out that this is hardly the desirable life path for most people. However, the rental market has been artificially inflated through various measures making it probably 40% more expensive to rent that Cabra property than to pay a mortgage on it. This of course almost forces people to choose to buy rather than rent.

The whole thing is so manufactured and absurd, but there seems to be some sort of acceptance that this is just the way it is because it has been like this for 20/25 years. That is not a huge amount of time in the grand scheme of the property market and it is not impossible to see some dramatic change of course (ie correction) in the property market. Politically we are already seeing the wheels turning but it will take longer for the property market to see the political changes manifest.

combat14 · 28-05-2021 11:38AM

Ace2007 wrote: »

You say it's the government's fault but in reality it's the judges and courts that award high settlements and force the insurance companies to pay out. It is also solicitors and those in the law profession that seek out compo cases as they know the courts will pay out.

As the courts are independents of the government - what exactly do you want them to do? If the government start telling Insurance companies what to do - they'll follow the banks and leave the industry - and then what.

do their job and pass the relevant legislation for the courts to follow and keep the insurance companies happy and here at the same time - whatever it takes at this stage

Ace2007 · 28-05-2021 11:43AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Your advising paying 380k for a house in Cabra! but this will go down like a lead balloon when the parents tell the neighbors where young William has moved to :pac:

But is that not everything that's wrong with housing market - society have people thinking that they have to live in a certain area because of where they are brought up or their friends live, or not to live in another area because it's a working class area and may have been some trouble in the area in the past.

How would an area like Cabra ever lose the tag if people refuse to move into it?

TU Dublin Grangegorman walking distance away, the Luas line, walking distance to city centre, Cabra house prices are on the rise, and give it 10 years and folk will be priced out of this area.

flexcon · 28-05-2021 11:44AM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

3/4 years would give them €40k cash savings? The only FTB I know who have had that are those staying at home into their late 20s/30s or else having parents/inheritance gifted to them.

Try 6/8 years and also tell the couple they can save like maniacs for that time just to be able to borrow 90% of the purchase price for a basic house in a below decent area. You wouldn't be long finding out that this is hardly the desirable life path for most people. However, the rental market has been artificially inflated through various measures making it probably 40% more expensive to rent that Cabra property than to pay a mortgage on it. This of course almost forces people to choose to buy rather than rent.

The whole thing is so manufactured and absurd, but there seems to be some sort of acceptance that this is just the way it is because it has been like this for 20/25 years. That is not a huge amount of time in the grand scheme of the property market and it is not impossible to see some dramatic change of course (ie correction) in the property market. Politically we are already seeing the wheels turning but it will take longer for the property market to see the political changes manifest.

FTB wants to buy a nee 3 bed semi for 275K
10% deposit needed is 27500
Government gives 27500 as it’s a new build
FTB doesn’t need any deposit.

Couple maxing out 3.5 times would mean combine salary of 80K

What am I missing here?

https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/cios-na-curra-lisgoold-midleton-co-cork/3234323

MacronvFrugals · 28-05-2021 11:49AM

Ace2007 wrote: »

But is that not everything that's wrong with housing market

Cabra house prices are on the rise, and give it 10 years and folk will be priced out of this area.

Quick get on the ladder or you'll miss out! Those two sentences together are like a relic from the Tiger

Ace2007 · 28-05-2021 11:50AM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

3/4 years would give them €40k cash savings? The only FTB I know who have had that are those staying at home into their late 20s/30s or else having parents/inheritance gifted to them.

A couple on 80k a year, should be able to save min 1k a month for a deposit for a house. That's before sacrificing other things. Within 4 years that 48k. Now throw in other savings over those 4 years and should get to 55k.

55k savings, 80k salaries - that brings them to a house worth 335k
Let's say their salaries are 90k when going to buy - that's 370K

If they got exemption - they could get up to 415k/460k

Browney7 · 28-05-2021 11:55AM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

3/4 years would give them €40k cash savings? The only FTB I know who have had that are those staying at home into their late 20s/30s or else having parents/inheritance gifted to them.

Try 6/8 years and also tell the couple they can save like maniacs for that time just to be able to borrow 90% of the purchase price for a basic house in a below decent area. You wouldn't be long finding out that this is hardly the desirable life path for most people. However, the rental market has been artificially inflated through various measures making it probably 40% more expensive to rent that Cabra property than to pay a mortgage on it. This of course almost forces people to choose to buy rather than rent.

The whole thing is so manufactured and absurd, but there seems to be some sort of acceptance that this is just the way it is because it has been like this for 20/25 years. That is not a huge amount of time in the grand scheme of the property market and it is not impossible to see some dramatic change of course (ie correction) in the property market. Politically we are already seeing the wheels turning but it will take longer for the property market to see the political changes manifest.

Whilst I do think FTBs should have to save some element of the purchase price (especially given the repossession regime and the boom bust boom cycle we saw over the past 15 years) the presence of HTB is a somewhat implicit admission from government that saving the deposit is a challenge for buyers given high rents and cost of living. Getting rid of deposit requirements would just inflate further as now you'd have another cohort ready to buy that have good incomes but only started the deposit saving process.

The problem with HTB is that it is of limited use in Dublin city at present as new build houses are likely to be in excess of the cap for HTB of 500k and properties that may be less than this to purchase (2 bed apartments) are being bought by funds and REITs to rent at very high rents to individuals and the councils.

Out in skerries, Balbriggan, rush, lusk and kinsealy and on the south and west side of the city, Adamstown, Lucan, City West and Newcastle there would likely be new build options that are HTB applicable, inside the M50, HTB just doesn't look to be an option.

Jmc25 · 28-05-2021 11:57AM

Ace2007 wrote: »

I put up some random houses there recently that were reasonable price and in decent locations -
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/243-carnlough-road-cabra-dublin-7/4499320

If your both on "good" incomes, with savings in bank - property like the above - any many others around should be within reach.

Yes that would be something like what we're looking at alright, our budget is a little bit higher. Not actually looking in Cabra but it's very much the type of area we are looking in. Without knowing the ins and outs of property market in Cabra, generally in the areas I am looking at, properties are listed at last year's prices - around 380,000 or so and then shoot up past 400k when bidding commences. I'm not saying that will happen with this exact property - I don't know too much about Cabra - but it's happening with similar ones in the same sort of areas.

At last year's prices, I would have bought this or something similar and probably felt "hey it was expensive but I could afford it so I don't really care all that much about housing anymore". But at this year's prices I'm thinking "I can't even afford something I already thought I was being ripped off in purchasing. Something has got to give". It's a fine line between things continuing on as normal with some grumbling, and people demanding that something has got to give. I think the increases in the last six months have put a lot of people in the latter camp.

Ace2007 · 28-05-2021 12:00PM

Jmc25 wrote: »

Yes that would be something like what we're looking at alright, our budget is a little bit higher. Not actually looking in Cabra but it's very much the type of area we are looking in. Without knowing the ins and outs of property market in Cabra, generally in the areas I am looking at, properties are listed at last year's prices - around 380,000 or so and then shoot up past 400k when bidding commences. I'm not saying that will happen with this exact property - I don't know too much about Cabra - but it's happening with similar ones in the same sort of areas.

At last year's prices, I would have bought this or something similar and probably felt "hey it was expensive but I could afford it so I don't really care all that much about housing anymore". But at this year's prices I'm thinking "I can't even afford something I already thought I was being ripped off in purchasing. Something has got to give". It's a fine line between things continuing on as normal with some grumbling, and people demanding that something has got to give. I think the increases in the last six months have put a lot of people in the latter camp.

Areas like Artane, Donnycarney, Beaumount might suit your budget - 4 bed houses going around 400k mark.

Amadan Dubh · 28-05-2021 12:01PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

A couple on 80k a year, should be able to save min 1k a month for a deposit for a house. That's before sacrificing other things. Within 4 years that 48k. Now throw in other savings over those 4 years and should get to 55k.

55k savings, 80k salaries - that brings them to a house worth 335k
Let's say their salaries are 90k when going to buy - that's 370K

If they got exemption - they could get up to 415k/460k

It's a stretch but I can see how it would work. However, is it ideal that even with those decent salaries and excellent savings we are telling people you can buy this basic houw éin Cabra? I don't think so, that level of working and saving versus the return is not something which would motivate people medium term. It only seems justified because the alternative with renting would mean paying 40% extra per month on the rent, but this is why we are in a crisis as opposed to needing to solve a less extreme housing problem.

Jmc25 · 28-05-2021 12:06PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

Areas like Artane, Donnycarney, Beaumount might suit your budget - 4 bed houses going around 400k mark.

Last year definitely. Not seeming so this year. I've seen a three bed terraced in Artane listed for 380k (a stretch on last year's prices but I could suck it up), with a bid of 475k. Granted, that's the most extreme example, but this is what's happening.

Ace2007 · 28-05-2021 12:07PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

It's a stretch but I can see how it would work. However, is it ideal that even with those decent salaries and excellent savings we are telling people you can buy this basic houw éin Cabra? I don't think so, that level of working and saving versus the return is not something which would motivate people medium term. It only seems justified because the alternative with renting would mean paying 40% extra per month on the rent, but this is why we are in a crisis as opposed to needing to solve a less extreme housing problem.

But again why do you view cabra in that way? Would you have the same opinion if the same house for the same price was in Blackrock.

Areas change over time - Cabra/Finglas/Ballymun - these are the same areas as 25 years ago. It's like people prefer to complain about them, and be "force" to move to commute belt, then maybe buying a house in those areas.

Cyrus · 28-05-2021 12:09PM

AdamD wrote: »

I think you're missing the problem. That worker could be on 100k and still wouldn't be able to afford in the area he's talking about.

100k * 3.5 = 350k. He isnt paying any rent at the moment so should be able to save a min of 1k a month, 3 years saving he has 36k.

This is 400k so not very far off

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-obelisk-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4500485

Ace2007 · 28-05-2021 12:21PM

Jmc25 wrote: »

Last year definitely. Not seeming so this year. I've seen a three bed terraced in Artane listed for 380k (a stretch on last year's prices but I could suck it up), with a bid of 475k. Granted, that's the most extreme example, but this is what's happening.

If you look at the property price register - there were two sold in the last 9 months around the 400k mark. the most recent sold was a 4 bedroom - fairly decently location i would say and nice area.

Ace2007 · 28-05-2021 12:23PM

AdamD wrote: »

I think you're missing the problem. That worker could be on 100k and still wouldn't be able to afford in the area he's talking about.

But that's because he's looking at house worth 600k. Just because you grow up on an area doesn't mean you should be automatically be able to buy a house in that area.

Jmc25 · 28-05-2021 12:24PM

Cyrus wrote: »

100k * 3.5 = 350k. He isnt paying any rent at the moment so should be able to save a min of 1k a month, 3 years saving he has 36k.

This is 400k so not very far off

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-obelisk-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4500485

In the case of a person on 100k living at home and saving 1k a month (probably could save double that in fairness without much hassle), yes they can buy that house, or a great many other houses - many of better value than a two bed in Blackrock.

It's the bigger picture though, I think the median wage is somewhere around a third of that and most people earning around 35-40k don't live at home and are paying hefty rents, making it difficult - though not always impossible - to save.

I know people myself who fit into the stereotype of earning decent salaries but saying they'll never afford a house because they can't be bothered saving. The vast majority of people don't fit into the category of just needing to be told how to budget/where to buy. There are real systemic issues.

MacronvFrugals · 28-05-2021 12:24PM

The council is trying to replenish previously sold stock in areas like Cabra/Finlglas etc which is driving prices up, add to that investors wanting to lease and its making bidding wars fairly tough at the minute

Jmc25 · 28-05-2021 12:29PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

If you look at the property price register - there were two sold in the last 9 months around the 400k mark. the most recent sold was a 4 bedroom - fairly decently location i would say and nice area.

That's the problem - the ones hitting the PPR now were sale agreed probably around December, when prices were creeping up but we still hadn't reached the frenzy we're seeing now.

Even the CSO stats are still only showing relatively modest price increases as there's always a lag between sale agreed - sold - hitting the price register.

I think those stats will show fairly hefty price increases across the board by late summer.

I really must stress that while I wasn't exactly fine with last year's prices, I was willing and able to fork out and buy in these locations at those prices.

Cyrus · 28-05-2021 12:29PM

Jmc25 wrote: »

In the case of a person on 100k living at home and saving 1k a month (probably could save double that in fairness without much hassle), yes they can buy that house, or a great many other houses - many of better value than a two bed in Blackrock.

It's the bigger picture though, I think the median wage is somewhere around a third of that and most people earning around 35-40k don't live at home and are paying hefty rents, making it difficult - though not always impossible - to save.

I know people myself who fit into the stereotype of earning decent salaries but saying they'll never afford a house because they can't be bothered saving. The vast majority of people don't fit into the category of just needing to be told how to budget/where to buy. There are real systemic issues.

sure, thats a different problem and not one that my post was directed at.

people on the median wage will not be able to buy in Dublin as a singelton but a couple will.

AlmightyCushion · 28-05-2021 12:30PM

Guys, the person in question was just giving an example of house prices in the area. Going by the article he doesn't seem to think he should be able to afford a house there on his current income and was just using it as an example of how hopeless his situation is. He doesn't even want to buy and would prefer to rent long term at an affordable price. Regardless of all that, he does make some valid points. You're all getting caught up on one line said by one person in the article.

cnocbui · 28-05-2021 12:30PM

AdamD wrote: »

I think you're missing the problem. That worker could be on 100k and still wouldn't be able to afford in the area he's talking about.

Then he should have studied medicine or IT and specialised in network security. Dare I suggest he go and live somewhere he can afford?

This one house in a lifetime thing is bizarre. Get on the ladder, be frugal, work on improving your income and then one day you might be able to afford Blackrock.

The market is competitive. If there are 100,000 people with six figure incomes wanting to live in Blackrock, and there are 85,000 houses available, recent graduates on €30 K are out of luck. Given the rate of population increase from 2014 to 2021 is possibly adding 21,000 people to Dublin each year, what other way can property prices in the most desirable locations go than up?

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting