Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Silentcorner

You'd have to wonder, when it comes to pubs or restaurants, why temperature checks and RAT can't be used.

Klonker

VonLuck wrote: »

I see they're planning on having some pilot gigs and events over June and July. Does anyone know how you actually sign up to one of those gatherings? Can't imagine they'll be your typical advertised gigs...

I doubt there will be any pilot gigs to be honest. They'll hum and haw about it through June and by July it'll be too late. Other countries will be having their gigs before we even start our pilots so what's the point. I'd love to be pleasantly surprised but I just can't see it. Only country to lose Euro 20 (21) matches don't forget.

Silentcorner

Boggles wrote: »

Jesus lad, you have been universally wrong since the start on every aspect of the pandemic.

For the love of God and particularly your own sanity, please stop doubling down on what the grifters are trying to sell you.

I hope you haven't given them money, have you?



Objection, leading!

May be ask it in context, without the hyperbole.

Boggles, relax, take some deep breaths....it's ok, I'm just some one who disagrees with you....

We know that this virus doesn't transmit outdoors Boggles, we know therefore that the restriction on outdoor dining is ridiculous and unnecessary...you have already convinced yourself to ignore the 14 months of Irish data that is available to all of us, I was asking if you also ignore the established fact that this virus does not transmit outdoors?

Now, have a cup of tea or listen to the soothing voices on Lyric FM, you are very wound up!!!

Boggles

Silentcorner wrote: »

Boggles, relax, take some deep breaths....it's ok, I'm just some one who disagrees with you....

You are disagreeing with reality not me.

But hey, fill your boots.

I just hope you haven't "donated". Please don't.

Silentcorner

Boggles wrote: »

You are disagreeing with reality not me.

But hey, fill your boots.

I just hope you haven't "donated". Please don't.

What reality am I disagreeing with Boggles?

That Michael Martin was wrong to keep us in level 5 lock down out of fear of a "new virus" few months ago?

or

That the virus doesn't transmit in a meaningful way outdoors?

Boggles

Silentcorner wrote: »

What reality am I disagreeing with Boggles?

Did anyone explain to him at the time that the chances of another viral surge was virtually impossible?

Absolute bananas.

We will have to leave it there.

Silentcorner

Boggles wrote: »

Absolute bananas.

We will have to leave it there.

Jesus you're another slippery one....

Absolute bananas he says...and yet there was no surge.

As many of us on here correctly predicted.

charlie14

Silentcorner wrote: »

Can you even admit that Micheal Martin was wrong to keep us in level 5 lock down because of the "new virus" back in February?[/QUOTE


Getting more difficult to know just what you are saying. One minute its a surge that kept us in lockdown, next it`s a new virus.
Not that it matters.


The new poster boys around here, France and Germany, lowered restrictions but due to rising numbers in March had to reinstate them. France even imposed nightime curfews on 21 Million of its population.
Sweden, the former poster boys of some, with light touch restrictions were having daily new case numbers in the 7,000-8,000 range and they have jiust twice our population.


Yet we had no surge. Strange that. Obviously nothing to do with lockdown. Simply down to the luck of the Irish.

Silentcorner

charlie14 wrote: »

Silentcorner wrote: »

Yet we had no surge. Strange that. Obviously nothing to do with lockdown. Simply down to the luck of the Irish.

Luck has nothing to do with it...

In January, and you can go back and check if you wish, many of us predicted the surge would be passed us by the end of that month...which is what happened...

The surge was over when we went back testing healthy people....just like last year.

Many of us here predicted that there wouldn't be another surge whatever the variant and therefore the severe restrictions were not justified, you can go back and check that too....there was no surge....despite the obvious increase in people's movement from Feb on.

How are a bunch of amateurs on a thread correct more often than not? Luck of the Irish, or an understanding that we get viral infection surges that last 6 weeks approx during and only during our viral infection season between Oct-Mar?

It's also those of us who have been pointing this out, are also pointing our that outdoor transmission is not dangerous enough to warrant the shutting down of out door dining and out door activities....which seems to be ignored by some posters for some curious reason.

It's also those of us who have been pointing out that while some restrictions are required, in particular during certain times of the year, a lot of our restrictions are pointless, the ONLY justification anyone on here can come up with is, look whats happening in India? A country with over a billion people a lot of whom live in terrible circumstances!

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

Jesus you're another slippery one....

Absolute bananas he says...and yet there was no surge.

As many of us on here correctly predicted.

Beyond bizarre. There was no surge during restrictions designed to prevent a surge therefore there was no need for restrictions to prevent a surge?

charlie14

Lumen wrote: »

Rough maths warning....

I think eoinb posted that we had 650k second doses due before end of June.

Add the 600k J+J first and final doses and you get maybe 1.9m. That's 50%.

eoinb is pretty sharp with the numbers and with that 650K being Pfizer and Moderna who have shown themselves (Pfizer in particular) dependable, I would not quibble over that.



J+J are a different matter. I know they have had production problems in the US but they are starting to remind me of AZ.
Contracted to deliver 55M doses to the EU this quarter but have delivered just 5M so far and are now saying they will only deliver 50% of that 55M.
Even if they fulfill that it would cut our share to 300K.


Even if they delivered that 300K it would come to 1.6M. Around 40%
Would we even use 300K before the end of June with the restrictions on its age group use ?

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

Beyond bizarre. There was no surge during restrictions designed to prevent a surge therefore there was no need for restrictions to prevent a surge?

That is you're reasoning, but then, you believe lock downs are needed to keep us out of lock downs like a few others on here.

You probably also believe that there is no outdoor transmission because of restrictions on out door activities too do you?

There was never going to be a surge, no matter how many restrictions were imposed...

The numbers have been falling over the last number of months despite the amount of people now moving about....

Keep resorting to using words like ludicrous, bizarre, etc if you wish...you aren't fooling many on here.

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

That is you're reasoning, but then, you believe lock downs are needed to keep us out of lock downs like a few others on here.

You probably also believe that there is no outdoor transmission because of restrictions on out door activities too do you?

There was never going to be a surge, no matter how many restrictions were imposed...

The numbers have been falling over the last number of months despite the amount of people now moving about....

Keep resorting to using words like ludicrous, bizarre, etc if you wish...you aren't fooling many on here.

So people have been meeting at normal levels for the past few months? A massive vaccine program is not mid roll out suppressing numbers?

That’s some kool aid you’ve swallowed

charlie14

Silentcorner wrote: »

charlie14 wrote: »

Luck has nothing to do with it...

In January, and you can go back and check if you wish, many of us predicted the surge would be passed us by the end of that month...which is what happened...

The surge was over when we went back testing healthy people....just like last year.

Many of us here predicted that there wouldn't be another surge whatever the variant and therefore the severe restrictions were not justified, you can go back and check that too....there was no surge....despite the obvious increase in people's movement from Feb on.

How are a bunch of amateurs on a thread correct more often than not? Luck of the Irish, or an understanding that we get viral infection surges that last 6 weeks approx during and only during our viral infection season between Oct-Mar?

It's also those of us who have been pointing this out, are also pointing our that outdoor transmission is not dangerous enough to warrant the shutting down of out door dining and out door activities....which seems to be ignored by some posters for some curious reason.

It's also those of us who have been pointing out that while some restrictions are required, in particular during certain times of the year, a lot of our restrictions are pointless, the ONLY justification anyone on here can come up with is, look whats happening in India? A country with over a billion people a lot of whom live in terrible circumstances!

The nonsense is getting more bizarre.


The surge that was never a surge here as predicted by the resident soothsayers was over by Feruary, yet it was still active in France, Germany, Sweden etc in April.


It`s not complicated, nor does it require the killing of more chickens to examine entrails as to why we had no surge and others did.
Those that lowered restrictions to soon, or those that had light touch restrictions had surges. We didn`t because we didn`t lower restrictions.

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

So people have been meeting at normal levels for the past few months? A massive vaccine program is not mid roll out suppressing numbers?

That’s some kool aid you’ve swallowed

Keep throwing meaningless insults Raind, you are getting more and more desperate.

Last summer we saw the exact same thing....more people moving about, no surge...no vaccines either...it's just science!!!

And I never said normal levels, whatever that is....I said more and more people have being moving about, meeting in classrooms, houses, public spaces.

You're another one who will ignore the low levels of outdoor transmission and you still throw around the kool aid insult....you really haven't got a clue what you are on about.

Silentcorner

charlie14 wrote: »

Silentcorner wrote: »

The nonsense is getting more bizarre.


The surge that was never a surge here as predicted by the resident soothsayers was over by Feruary, yet it was still active in France, Germany, Sweden etc in April.


It`s not complicated, nor does it require the killing of more chickens to examine entrails as to why we had no surge and others did.
Those that lowered restrictions to soon, or those that had light touch restrictions had surges. We didn`t because we didn`t lower restrictions.

Jesus, ye really do like to hang out in flocks....

Nobody here attempted to predict what would happen in France, Germany or anywhere else, why would we....we have no idea how viral infection surges behave in those countries, we do know how they behave here...we have 14 months of data to interpret.

You've been conditioned to believe that what is happening in other countries is the primary justification for the level of restrictions here...it is a demented hamster wheel of fear and hysteria that is costing us billions not to mention the damage it is doing to the public's health.

ArthurDayne

Deleted User wrote: »

Beyond bizarre. There was no surge during restrictions designed to prevent a surge therefore there was no need for restrictions to prevent a surge?

I think how I personally would frame this particular point is by saying that there does seem to be preference given in certain quarters to the proposition that the Christmas surge was halted by lockdown — rather than it being the case that Christmas is the most markedly sociable time of year where families tend to gather (particularly with older relatives) ..and this generally dies down in January. Now, while I do think it probably stands to reason that the lockdown reduced transmission more rapidly than would otherwise have been the case, it also stands to reason that post-Christmas does tend to see a bit of a lull in terms of people getting together etc — so there would have been a reduction in social contact anyway.

This seemed to be ignored in how the strategy was implemented in the first few months of 2021, where the abundance of caution approach seemed to more or less be inferring that lockdown was preventing a recurrence of what happened at Christmas. In that regard, some and perhaps many would be of the view that the restrictions employed for much of 2021 were based on what seemed be an assumption that the context of Christmas was applicable more broadly to the subsequent months — which does seem dubious. The result of that thinking was the reimposition of a very prolonged Level 5 lockdown which some people, myself included, believed dragged on for far too long.

I suppose what adds to the frustration is that the approach seems arbitrary in how it’s being managed.

_Kaiser_

Watching the darts here. Crowds/fans back, everyone having a good time, relaxed and not a mask to be seen.

It's great to see!

Andrew00

We'll have crowds back in stadiums in August - 200 people in croke park for a pilot event

Silentcorner

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Watching the darts here. Crowds/fans back, everyone having a good time, relaxed and not a mask to be seen.

It's great to see!

Ya it is, I watched the snooker from the Crucible last month, they started the competition with 30% capacity at the beginning of April, full house by the final.

It really is great to see crowds back in stadiums, back at the golf, in some parts of the States they have been packing the stadiums for months...

hynesie08

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ya it is, I watched the snooker from the Crucible last month, they started the competition with 30% capacity at the beginning of April, full house by the final.

It really is great to see crowds back in stadiums, back at the golf, in some parts of the States they have been packing the stadiums for months...

What parts?

_Kaiser_

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ya it is, I watched the snooker from the Crucible last month, they started the competition with 30% capacity at the beginning of April, full house by the final.

It really is great to see crowds back in stadiums, back at the golf, in some parts of the States they have been packing the stadiums for months...

The only downside is that it really exposes how backwards and excessively cautious (driven by the usual fear of accountability) our "leaders" are here.

Klonker

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Watching the darts here. Crowds/fans back, everyone having a good time, relaxed and not a mask to be seen.

It's great to see!

Don't worry, we'll pilot something in the next few months. I mean if Tony says its ok of course!

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

Keep throwing meaningless insults Raind, you are getting more and more desperate.

Last summer we saw the exact same thing....more people moving about, no surge...no vaccines either...it's just science!!!

And I never said normal levels, whatever that is....I said more and more people have being moving about, meeting in classrooms, houses, public spaces.

You're another one who will ignore the low levels of outdoor transmission and you still throw around the kool aid insult....you really haven't got a clue what you are on about.

But massive restrictions remained. The rate of decline slowed through February and March in line with increasing movement. And now between previous infections and vaccines over 40% are now resistant further slowing spread.

It’s simple maths - reduce opportunities for infection (contacts) by 50%, reduce spread by 50%. Increase contacts through increased population movement by 50%, spread returns to 75% of original value, reduce susceptible population by 33% through vaccination, spread drops back to 50% of original value. It’s simple. No

*numbers selected for illustrative purposes. A full model would have many many many more variables.

Last summer, in July, growth in cases started. This growth was steady and more or less constant all the way to October where restrictions were reintroduced. The “spike” in cases in October was in fact the logical conclusion of restrictions lifted in June. Not in anyway saying they should not have been lifted. The low numbers at the time bought us time. Now do the same starting at 400 not 20 cases, without a vaccine and it’s a different story. But it’s simple maths. But we have a vaccine thankfully so it’s over within weeks, bar keeping a eye on what’s happening elsewhere.

Now, looking at the simple maths that applied Last summer when we “had no surge”. If on February 1st we had the same level of restrictions as we had in July 2020, the same growth rate would have resulted in 8000 cases a day by April 1st, with at that stage most of the vulnerable still unvaccinated. This is simple maths with the exact same growth rate that applied in July, and ignoring a more transmissible variant, which I am still kind of skeptical on the true impact of that variant on spread. On that, you do quite rightly say that people were not adhering as much to restrictions this time round, and I am not convinced that this lower adherence has been factored in to the analysis of the uk variant when compared to earlier versions which were around during periods of higher compliance.

branie2

I was in Limerick on Saturday since the restrictions were lifted, and it was great to be there.

paddyisreal

Boggles wrote: »

Doubt he watches Grift videos.

Grift video comment and one the other day about Jim corr. Your level of debating has to be admired

Silentcorner

hynesie08 wrote: »

What parts?

Texas.

If you can stomach the fear mongering from CNN have a look...

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/04/05/texas-rangers-crowd-stadium-surge-coronavirus-vpx.cnn

They were peddling hysteria back in January during the Superbowl weekend in Florida as well...

ArthurDayne

ArthurDayne wrote: »

I think how I personally would frame this particular point is by saying that there does seem to be preference given in certain quarters to the proposition that the Christmas surge was halted by lockdown — rather than it being the case that Christmas is the most markedly sociable time of year where families tend to gather (particularly with older relatives) ..and this generally dies down in January. Now, while I do think it probably stands to reason that the lockdown reduced transmission more rapidly than would otherwise have been the case, it also stands to reason that post-Christmas does tend to see a bit of a lull in terms of people getting together etc — so there would have been a reduction in social contact anyway.

This seemed to be ignored in how the strategy was implemented in the first few months of 2021, where the abundance of caution approach seemed to more or less be inferring that lockdown was preventing a recurrence of what happened at Christmas. In that regard, some and perhaps many would be of the view that the restrictions employed for much of 2021 were based on what seemed be an assumption that the context of Christmas was applicable more broadly to the subsequent months — which does seem dubious. The result of that thinking was the reimposition of a very prolonged Level 5 lockdown which some people, myself included, believed dragged on for far too long.

I suppose what adds to the frustration is that the approach seems arbitrary in how it’s being managed.

I agree with your point on Christmas, however per my other post, if you apply the pre October level 5 growth rate to the February 1st case numbers, you get to a tricky spot pretty fast. A pattern remarkably similar to much of Europe in fact

hynesie08

Silentcorner wrote: »

Texas.

If you can stomach the fear mongering from CNN have a look...

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/04/05/texas-rangers-crowd-stadium-surge-coronavirus-vpx.cnn

They were peddling hysteria back in January during the Superbowl weekend in Florida as well...

So 1 part, for 1 sport, for 1 month........ Not exactly what you said now is it.

paddyisreal

Silentcorner wrote: »

Texas.

If you can stomach the fear mongering from CNN have a look...

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/04/05/texas-rangers-crowd-stadium-surge-coronavirus-vpx.cnn

They were peddling hysteria back in January during the Superbowl weekend in Florida as well...

That place was as packed as the bookies boggles was in the other day and no one was consuming either