Dublin Bay South By-Election

Marcusm

El Tarangu wrote: »

I find this line of reasoning very strange - surely its not unusual that someone who has very publicly had a go at the party leader on several occasions finds themselves out in the cold for a bit.

Aside from the Green Party (where apparently its a bit of a free-for-all, policy position-wise), I can't imagine any other political party where someone could publicly have a go at the leader and not have to spend a bit of time in the sin bin.

I don’t think Haughey took as direct an approach with Colley, O’Malley, McCreevey or Andrews.

Jizique

El Tarangu wrote: »

I find this line of reasoning very strange - surely its not unusual that someone who has very publicly had a go at the party leader on several occasions finds themselves out in the cold for a bit.
.

The new Varadkar era was supposed to leave all that invectiveness behind - she was a breath of fresh air and a strong supporter of women’s rights and gay marriage despite running in the constituency of Joe Doyle (almost said Alice Glenn); that Geoghegan chap hardly fits the bill given his Renua dabbling.
Plus she is not a legal head - unlike Geoghegan, O’Callaghan, Bacik, Conroy and before that McDowell

headtheball14

O'Connell was a gift of a candidate. Previous TD narrowly defeated. Female, local employer lives and works in the constituency and Leo went .....nah
If anyone is sabotaging the electoral chances you need to look to fine Gaels leader.

Blut2

I'd say O'Connell wouldn't be too saddened by the prospect of Geoghegan losing. Should Leo be booted out before the next election she'll be looking pretty good running as the primary FG candidate in DBS then. If Geoghegan wins though she'll have to battle it out with him for potentially the one FG seat in the constituency.

Annasopra

golfball37 wrote: »

Makes sense that current govt parties should want to return a govt seat. Not much of a story really

Well it is. Originally Harris was painting as FG V SF. Now its FG and FF and Greens v SF. This is saying a lot actually about who Harris isnt mentioning. It suggests they are worried Bacik could pull through on green transfers.

blackwhite

https://twitter.com/patleahyit/status/1409587865848193045?s=21

Going to be very tight - Bacik will do well on transfers, but Labour brand might result in her getting no preference from some cohorts within the SF and other left voters

hotmail.com

Poll out tonight has FG on 27, Labour on 22 and SF on 13.

By election opinion polls notoriously unreliable but SF are way off getting a seat there.

AndrewJRenko

hotmail.com wrote: »

Poll out tonight has FG on 27, Labour on 22 and SF on 13.

By election opinion polls notoriously unreliable but SF are way off getting a seat there.

All to play for for Ivana there, once the transfers start kicking in from FF and GP initially.

Peregrine

Margin of error of ±4.4%. That's quite wide but it's probably the best we could have asked for in a by-election poll.

Rjd2

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

All to play for for Ivana there, once the transfers start kicking in from FF and GP initially.

James may get some also tbf from those parties.

AndrewJRenko

Rjd2 wrote: »

James may get some also tbf from those parties.

He'll get some all right, but it's a fair bet that Bacik will get more. So the question is whether she'll get enough to 1) stay ahead of Boylan and ensure that SF get eliminated before her, and 2) close the gap and pass out FG.

golfball37

Kate would have won this by election comfortably, possibly even on first count.

Darc19

That will take the wind out of the sinn fein cheerleaders.

...Ghost...

golfball37 wrote: »

Kate would have won this by election comfortably, possibly even on first count.

She obviously didn't think so herself, or she would have ran solo. After her scathing attack on FG, I think they would be mad to consider her in future. There's enough anti-male candidates in the election as it is, so she won't be missed that much.

expectationlost

golfball37 wrote: »

Kate would have won this by election comfortably, possibly even on first count.

why the is this thread last few pages filled with talk of candidate that didnt even put themselves forward to their party to choose?

Blut2

Bacik and Labour will be delighted with that. I may end up having been wrong with my doubts in this thread about her.

"Sarah Durcan (Social Democrats) 5 per cent; Mannix Flynn (Independent) 5 per cent; Mairead Tóibín (Aontú) 3 per cent; Brigid Purcell (People Before Profit) 2 per cent;" -- make up most of the rest of the numbers not included in that poll headline image, for anyone curious.

Bacik should do a lot better transfer-wise from those minors as they get knocked out in the first few rounds than FG. The SocDem vote particularly I'd assume will break very heavily for her.

Caquas

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

All to play for for Ivana there, once the transfers start kicking in from FF and GP initially.

I call BS of this poll.

There is no way Bacik will outpoll Boylan by 2:1 or anything like it . Labour (K. Humphreys 7.9%) trailed SF (C. Andrews 16.1%) by that margin a year ago. Nothing in the other polls suggests that Labour could flip the outcome of the general election. The Greens will be hammered - Conroy will be lucky to get half of her boss’s vote last year. Hard to know where the disillusioned Greens (12%) will go but it is laughable to think they will return to Labour.

I think Geoghegan will top the poll with Boylan second. Transfers will be fascinating but I don’t think Boylan could catch him if FF and Greens are loyal to the coalition. If Bacik wins this it will be the biggest electoral upset since...well, since the last election.

JPup

Caquas wrote: »

I call BS of this poll.

There is no way Bacik will outpoll Boylan by 2:1 or anything like it . Labour (K. Humphreys 7.9%) trailed SF (C. Andrews 16.1%) by that margin a year ago. Nothing in the other polls suggests that Labour could flip the outcome of the general election. The Greens will be hammered - Conroy will be lucky to get half of her boss’s vote last year. Hard to know where the disillusioned Greens (12%) will go but it is laughable to think they will return to Labour.

I think Geoghegan will top the poll with Boylan second. Transfers will be fascinating but I don’t think Boylan could catch him if FF and Greens are loyal to the coalition. If Bacik wins this it will be the biggest electoral upset since...well, since the last election.

Bacik seems to have great momentum on the ground. Loads of houses with her poster in the window. Way more than any other candidate that I can see.

Blut2

Caquas wrote: »

I call BS of this poll.

There is no way Bacik will outpoll Boylan by 2:1 or anything like it . Labour (K. Humphreys 7.9%) trailed SF (C. Andrews 16.1%) by that margin a year ago. Nothing in the other polls suggests that Labour could flip the outcome of the general election. The Greens will be hammered - Conroy will be lucky to get half of her boss’s vote last year. Hard to know where the disillusioned Greens (12%) will go but it is laughable to think they will return to Labour.

I think Geoghegan will top the poll with Boylan second. Transfers will be fascinating but I don’t think Boylan could catch him if FF and Greens are loyal to the coalition. If Bacik wins this it will be the biggest electoral upset since...well, since the last election.

Bacik is pretty much the only middle class vote opposition candidate. If someone doesn't want to vote for the FG/FF/Grn parties of government, its just Bacik or the SocDems really. And most of the SocDem's 5% vote will transfer upward to her.

So its probably not too surprising seeing her surge, given the DBS demographics and the fact government parties usually do poorly in by-elections.

Faugheen

JPup wrote: »

Bacik seems to have great momentum on the ground. Loads of houses with her poster in the window. Way more than any other candidate that I can see.

Plus Alan Kelly is an excellent campaigner. He’s been heavily involved in her campaign.

It’s not to suggest that Labour are making a comeback but she would appeal to a lot of voters in the area. She’ll comfortably outperform them nationally.

For Forks Sake

Probably of more relevance if it plays out like that on polling day..

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409594451127799811

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409595948578258950

Peregrine

That's a very strong second and third preference for Byrne. Hard to know if they'll come into play though. Could be FG's 2nd preference.

Bacik too.

It would be a very bad day at the office for Sinn Féin if the result looks like that.

iffandonlyif

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Probably of more relevance if it plays out like that on polling day..

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409594451127799811

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1409595948578258950

Wow, SF are not transfer-friendly.

JPup

Peregrine wrote: »

That's a very strong second and third preference for Byrne. Bacik too.

It would be a very bad day at the office for Sinn Féin if the final result looks like that.

Bacik clearly the favourite based on those numbers. Seems weird how far off national polls it is though. Nothing in the national polls to suggest a Labour surge or that SF are going backwards. I thought Lynn Boylan would make a strong candidate too.

golfball37

expectationlost wrote: »

why the is this thread last few pages filled with talk of candidate that didnt even put themselves forward to their party to choose?

Because the party in telling her not to bother have engineered a situation where they could lose a td in a constituency they should be comfortably winning

retalivity

Although she's an awful candidate, 10% & 5th place for FF is laughably bad

golfball37

It’s not a sf constituency, nowhere near it. The fact they won a seat here and would retain it in a general on these numbers is good news for them imo. After the surge of 2020 this constituency was one ward I had them nailed down not holding onto next time.

expectationlost

golfball37 wrote: »

Because the party in telling her not to bother have engineered a situation where they could lose a td in a constituency they should be comfortably winning

who told her not to bother I thought she was complaining that she never heard from HQ.

KevRossi

There's a fair bit of the SF vote in DBS that is a personal vote for Chris Andrews. He had a decent presence there.... FF history... family name .... would be on the left of FF back then. His support of Palestine would have helped him too with a lot of the trendy left set there. Boylan had no presence or track record in the constituency up to last month, that will hurt her.

Byrne's performance in 2nd and 3rd preferences is interetsing. If she can stay ahead of Boylan and ends out as last to be eliminated (apart from Geoghegan and Bacik), then she'll transfer heavily to Bacik. Labour and GP have the same voting set in DBS in my personal experience.

Incidentally, FG have 37% in the poll, but Geoghegan only has 27%, so he's not loved a lot there it seems.

hotmail.com

JPup wrote: »

Bacik seems to have great momentum on the ground. Loads of houses with her poster in the window. Way more than any other candidate that I can see.

A bonus from her campaigning during the last 2 referendums. She would have gained a lot of followers.

It doesn't reflect the whole constituency.

I doubt Labour will figure high in the end.