FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

FrancieBrady

Finty Lemon wrote: »

Monaghan winning an All Ireland would be unprecedented but you would still accept it Francie.
Dream on for that one too lad

Nobody in Monaghan promising NEVER to do it though.

Finty Lemon

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody in Monaghan promising NEVER to do it though.

:D:D good one

Cluedo Monopoly

Marine Layer wrote: »

But that arrangement hasn't been put to the test yet
Also polls suggest a majority would return it
So you are wrong
We'll have another 500 to 600 days to wait and see

You are trying too hard Marine

FrancieBrady

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

You are trying too hard Marine

The fact there is, that in order to test that arrangement, FF/FG/Greens have to put that arrangement to the people in the next campaign.
But will they or will they lie again about who they will go into coalition with?
If the electorate buy the lie again then they will get what they deserve. The decline in FF and FG's vote share from a high of 86% to just over 40% shows that more and more are moving away from them.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The fact there is, that in order to test that arrangement, FF/FG/Greens have to put that arrangement to the people in the next campaign.
But will they or will they lie again about who they will go into coalition with?
If the electorate buy the lie again then they will get what they deserve. The decline in FF and FG's vote share from a high of 86% to just over 40% shows that more and more are moving away from them.

polls so far indicate enough of the electorate would bring in T.D's that would return the current government and that the power envy party would be in opposition again
5 to 600 days before we find out

FrancieBrady

Marine Layer wrote: »

polls so far indicate enough of the electorate would bring in T.D's that would return the current government and that the power envy party would be in opposition again
5 to 600 days before we find out

No, that is a mis-read. Polls show that the electorate are happy with the present government at the time the poll was taken. That is all we know.

Will that be the same come another GE. Nobody, including you, knows.

p.s. you also don't know how long this government will last, if you think repeating the last sentence is some kind of a taunt.

Shebean

Marine Layer wrote: »

polls so far indicate enough of the electorate would bring in T.D's that would return the current government and that the power envy party would be in opposition again
5 to 600 days before we find out

Speaking on FF and FG like one unit shows a problem for their identities. Most of the support one would get to usher them in to government was that they weren't the other. FF win, FG lose or FG win FF lose.
The fact that they had/have to join forces tells the electorate they'll do anything to keep others out. Varadkar said so much about SF the other week.
I think this will damage FF/FG in the long run. In the least they'll be tied together in the mind of the electorate for some years. This will lessen the traditional bounce effect were voters would drift from one to the other.
While we are likely to see one of FF/FG in the next government there's a strong possibility they'll be a junior partner.

FrancieBrady

Shebean wrote: »

Speaking on FF and FG like one unit shows a problem for their identities. Most of the support one would get to usher them in to government was that they weren't the other. FF win, FG lose or FG win FF lose.
The fact that they had/have to join forces tells the electorate they'll do anything to keep others out. Varadkar said so much about SF the other week.
I think this will damage FF/FG in the long run. In the least they'll be tied together in the mind of the electorate for some years. This will lessen the traditional bounce effect were voters would drift from one to the other.
While we are likely to see one of FF/FG in the next government there's a strong possibility they'll be a junior partner.

No more than the mess the DUP have gotten themselves into. The 'FF FG having to coalesce' mess is of their own making. Essentially it means the demise of one of them.
Politics is changing for the better here. The toxicity of the power swap is disappearing. Which suits me.

RandomViewer

Finty Lemon wrote: »

Why?

FG got a Australian visa for someone who should have gone to jail

Cluedo Monopoly

Marine Layer wrote: »

polls so far indicate enough of the electorate would bring in T.D's that would return the current government and that the power envy party would be in opposition again
5 to 600 days before we find out

The only poll that counts is the General Election.

Here is the popular vote totals for FF+FG over the past 4 elections.

GE 2007 = 1,422,993
GE 2011 = 1,188,986
GE 2016 = 1,063,496
GE 2020 = 939,904

You honestly think this trend will be reversed by the chaos coalition?

skimpydoo

Finty Lemon wrote: »

Monaghan winning an All Ireland would be unprecedented but you would still accept it Francie.
Dream on for that one too lad

Monaghan has won 2 All Ireland's. The Monaghan ladies won back to back in 1996 and 1997.

FrancieBrady

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

The only poll that counts is the General Election.

Here is the popular vote totals for FF+FG over the past 4 elections.

GE 2007 = 1,422,993
GE 2011 = 1,188,986
GE 2016 = 1,063,496
GE 2020 = 939,904

You honestly think this trend will be reversed by the chaos coalition?

FG are currently doing what FF or FG did when they went into various coalitions.

They are setting up FF as the fall guys for this coalition. Wiser and smarter than FF?
Can they maintain it when FG take the Taoiseach reins again or will FF turn out to be the real smarty's of the piece I.E.- allowing FG's leadership to be freshest in the minds of disgruntled voters.

Stay tuned!

RandomViewer

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

The only poll that counts is the General Election.

Here is the popular vote totals for FF+FG over the past 4 elections.

GE 2007 = 1,422,993
GE 2011 = 1,188,986
GE 2016 = 1,063,496
GE 2020 = 939,904

You honestly think this trend will be reversed by the chaos coalition?

So in and around 850k next time,

RandomViewer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG are currently doing what FF or FG did when they went into various coalitions.

They are setting up FF as the fall guys for this coalition. Wiser and smarter than FF?
Can they maintain it when FG take the Taoiseach reins again or will FF turn out to be the real smarty's of the piece I.E.- allowing FG's leadership to be freshest in the minds of disgruntled voters.

Stay tuned!

Ryan's going to get a few weeks at the end, sort of call the election for October and go on Summer recess leaving Ryan as figurehead

Shebean

The next kerfuffle will be all the civil liberties arguments of vaccine passports for going for a sandwich. Showing personal health information to some youngfella on minimum wage will not fly.
Maybe an app that shows a simple yes or no? But I don't know how that can be enforced.

I expect a lot of tax payer money to be spent before it's scrapped.

RandomViewer

Shebean wrote: »

The next kerfuffle will be all the civil liberties arguments of vaccine passports for going for a sandwich. Showing personal health information to some youngfella on minimum wage will not fly.
Maybe an app that shows a simple yes or no? But I don't know how that can be enforced.

I expect a lot of tax payer money to be spent before it's scrapped.

Would be thinking someone's been given the wink for the App already, what's the odds it won't be compatible with half the phones

Shebean

RandomViewer wrote: »

Would be thinking someone's been given the wink for the App already, what's the odds it won't be compatible with half the phones

Most likely. The important thing is there'll be a contract. We can worry about functionality after the vendor is well paid. I suggest somebody with absolutely no previous experience in the field.

Floppybits

Shebean wrote: »

The next kerfuffle will be all the civil liberties arguments of vaccine passports for going for a sandwich. Showing personal health information to some youngfella on minimum wage will not fly.
Maybe an app that shows a simple yes or no? But I don't know how that can be enforced.

I expect a lot of tax payer money to be spent before it's scrapped.

I don't like this route that the government is going down with extra freedoms for vaccinated versus the unvaccinated. It is asking for trouble creating a them and us situation.

Shebean

Floppybits wrote: »

I don't like this route that the government is going down with extra freedoms for vaccinated versus the unvaccinated. It is asking for trouble creating a them and us situation.

Agreed. You could maybe put restrictions on port arrivals but bar a 'Management reserve the right to admission' kind of thing the word 'discrimination' will be raised.

The important thing is we pay someone to put it together before we research anything.

Floppybits

Shebean wrote: »

Agreed. You could maybe put restrictions on port arrivals but bar a 'Management reserve the right to admission' kind of thing the word 'discrimination' will be raised.

The important thing is we pay someone to put it together before we research anything.

My problem with it is that in this country we have too many people all to willing to walk over people who are less fortunate or maybe don't subscribe to the group think. Some folks will be licking their lips at treating people like pariahs who have not been vaccinated.

Calhoun

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/red-faced-rte-admits-showing-ivana-bacik-tv-programme-before-by-election-was-an-inadvertent-error-40616724.html

RTE playing games may have a bit of a positive bump for other candidates particularly FG candidate if the polls are true is competing directly with Bacik.

FrancieBrady

Calhoun wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/red-faced-rte-admits-showing-ivana-bacik-tv-programme-before-by-election-was-an-inadvertent-error-40616724.html

RTE playing games may have a bit of a positive bump for other candidates particularly FG candidate if the polls are true is competing directly with Bacik.

The succession of indignation and anger from FG about an IT opinion piece on Geoghegan this morning is glorious to read.
As yer man in Dad's Army used say, 'they don't like it up 'em'.

Calhoun

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The succession of indignation and anger from FG about an IT opinion piece on Geoghegan this morning is glorious to read.
As yer man in Dad's Army used say, 'they don't like it up 'em'.

The danger is in a two horse race people may pick the lesser of two evils and considering both of their past political backgrounds its hard to tell who is worse Geoghegan or Bacik.

Floppybits

Calhoun wrote: »

The danger is in a two horse race people may pick the lesser of two evils and considering both of their past political backgrounds its hard to tell who is worse Geoghegan or Bacik.

Geoghegan is the one I would worry about getting in especially with his involvement with Renua.

Calhoun

Floppybits wrote: »

Geoghegan is the one I would worry about getting in especially with his involvement with Renua.

Bacik is fairly dodgy as well going back to her days as SU president in Trinity and has done some fairly underhanded stuff in the past.

Its hard to tell which one of them has less skeletons in the closet. Also what Geoghegan does have going for him is that it looks like the IT article is written by Una Mullaly and her politics are not so objective.

Its going to be an interesting few days either way.

Shebean

Calhoun wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/red-faced-rte-admits-showing-ivana-bacik-tv-programme-before-by-election-was-an-inadvertent-error-40616724.html

RTE playing games may have a bit of a positive bump for other candidates particularly FG candidate if the polls are true is competing directly with Bacik.

RTE is filled with rank amateurs. More nepotism gone awry than Machiavelli.

Loafing Oaf

Calhoun wrote: »

The danger is in a two horse race people may pick the lesser of two evils and considering both of their past political backgrounds its hard to tell who is worse Geoghegan or Bacik.

There's no debate about that for most people who generally vote SF or the smaller left parties. I can't see any downside for Bacik for the perception to grow that this is a two-horse race between her and Geoghegan.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

There's no debate about that for most people who generally vote SF or the smaller left parties. I can't see any downside for Bacik for the perception to grow that this is a two-horse race between her and Geoghegan.

Who is ahead in the polling, (not paying much attention tbh)

Floppybits

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

There's no debate about that for most people who generally vote SF or the smaller left parties. I can't see any downside for Bacik for the perception to grow that this is a two-horse race between her and Geoghegan.

Will it be another black mark against Harris if he fails to get this seat for FG.

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who is ahead in the polling, (not paying much attention tbh)

Only opinion poll (AFAIK) shows FG on 27% and Labour on 22. Received wisdom is this would mean a narrow victory for Bacik, given how much more transfer-friendly she is likely to be than Geoghegan.