Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

gozunda

arccosh wrote: »

they are allowed, it was announced yesterday, beer gardens open from Monday 12th

Not to play syntax ping pong but ...

Yeah and today's not the 12th.... but reckon outdoor pubs will probably go ahead then..

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

To be honest I'm just going to block you at this point. You're a time sink to me.

Because I actually read parts of the study you linked to?

Whatsisname

gozunda wrote: »

I get what you're saying about morale. The fact is there are no easily predictable dates.

Do you know any country on the planet which is taking that type of random dartboard approach you outlined?

The UK have 4 different sets of criteria which must be met before any of the restrictions are being reviewed. The government here have outlined similar but minus the vague timeline the UK put in place but which isn't worth the paper tbh ..

Other countries have similar. Not sure why we in Ireland should close our eyes and blindly take a step in the dark just because...

I don't actually think you know whats happening in the UK at all, or atleast not England. They literally announced yesterday we're moving to step 2 on Monday the 12th and that so far there has been no data to suggest the 4 steps are not currently being met. I hate Boris and the Tories as much as the next and I don't trust a word they say but you seem to be under some impression that the UK is under some super strict lockdown with no way out, just "vague timelines", which aren't actually vague at all really.

arccosh

NIMAN wrote: »

But hospital numbers in Ireland and UK are falling off quickly.
Where is it putting young people in hospital?

putting more young people in hospital doesn't necessarily equate to an overall increase in over all numbers ...

What it is indicative of though is the previous thought that younger people were impervious to the original strains in the UK and Ireland is not true anymore...

or in simplistic terms, this has the potential to mutate into something worse that what was originally thought....

thankfully it's not generating the numbers that were seen in older people, but what if it mutated into something like MERS (all ages, guaranteed death in 40 or 50% of people who got it), with the transmissibility of COVID.....

that's why the adults are not waiting around to find out if that happens....

gozunda

walus wrote: »

Was this perpetual lockdown strategy not implemented to protect the old and vulnerable? With those groups of people and additional individuals who also wish to be vaccinated protected, there is no one left to protect. No need for vaccinating the young, no need for lockdown, and consequently no space for curtain twitchers. Happy days.

Simple answer- No. The old and vulnerable were advised to cocoon.

The restrictions were put in place:

1. To keep the rate of infection down.

2. To allow our heath services continue to cope. See above.

We're still doing the above whilst the vaccination schedule is being rolled out.

Is there a vaccination against the magical thinking condition which means a small few are constantly imagining "curtain twitchers"?

gozunda

NIMAN wrote: »

But hospital numbers in Ireland and UK are falling off quickly.
Where is it putting young people in hospital?

They are indeed as a result of restrictions and vaccinations. The biggest drop off seems to be in older age groups interestingly enough.

But here and the UK there's a lot more vaccinations are yet to be completed / undertaken across a range of age groups.

Both countries have put in place some serious quarantine rules to stop potential carriers from countries such as Brazil bringing in more cases of the varient. And yes some have been detected here - hence the need to get as many as possible vaccinated before it becomes widespread.

A feature of the Brazilian variant is that it puts more younger people in hospital. Thats been identified as a feature of the variant and not vulnerability etc

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n879

Aph2016

Seeing certain posters continually justify restrictions that were copied from the CCP is frankly absurd. Just admit the restrictions have been wildly disproportionate to the risk this virus poses.

copeyhagen

heard on the news earlier hospital numbers down 15% in a week. and pressure on the govt/Nphet to open outdoor dining straight away.. lovely

11521323

Aph2016 wrote: »

Seeing certain posters continually justify restrictions that were copied from the CCP is frankly absurd. Just admit the restrictions have been wildly disproportionate to the risk this virus poses.

There are two particular individuals on this thread who genuinely seem like they're being paid to push a certain agenda.

There's not an ounce of actual debate, just them trying their very best to discredit any and all claims of negligence, ineptitude or incompetence of anyone even tangentially associated with the Government. It's very strange.

copeyhagen

gozunda wrote: »

They are indeed as a result of restrictions and vaccinations. The biggest drop off seems to be in older age groups interestingly enough.

cuz theyre being vaccinated?

gozunda

Whatsisname wrote: »

I don't actually think you know whats happening in the UK at all, or atleast not England. They literally announced yesterday we're moving to step 2 on Monday the 12th and that so far there has been no data to suggest the 4 steps are not currently being met. I hate Boris and the Tories as much as the next and I don't trust a word they say but you seem to be under some impression that the UK is under some super strict lockdown with no way out, just "vague timelines", which aren't actually vague at all really.

I'm not pulling it out of a hat you know. Its what the UK government has laid out as how its reviewing restrictions for all potential roll backs

Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:

•the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully

•evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated

•infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS

• our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-spring-2021/covid-19-response-spring-2021-summary

But yeah the UK is under some super strict lockdown. They even made travel for leisure or holiday purposes illegal

And yes Boris and friends are playing the game with their fingers crossed and their arses on fire imho.

Penfailed

JDD wrote: »

But we could certainly provide clear information to the public on what could reopen when certain percentages of certain cohorts are vaccinated, whenever that may be. Could MM not say "once all over 70's and X% of high risk adults are vaccinated, and on the previso there is no new vaccine resistent variant, we can open retail" and "once all over 70's and all high risk adults are vaccinated, we can open European travel" or some such?

Is there anywhere in the world that is doing this?

CalamariFritti

VonLuck wrote: »

Just because 0.1% of cases were from outdoors doesn't mean that it's 1000 times less likely. You could have 1000 cases indoors and 1 outdoors, but are likely to be in much greater contact with people indoors, hence the higher numbers. Your time outdoors along with proximity with people is a big factor. I would say that he is suggesting that 19/20 times less likely when like is compared with like e.g. a group of people sitting at a dining table compared with a group of people sitting around a picnic table.

Its literally what it means. For every 1000 cases indoors there is 1 case outdoors.

walus

scamalert wrote: »

well if it takes 4-6 months just to get vulnerable vaccinated and idea is to do 2-3 million extra so by the time they finish people who got the first one will need to be vaccinated again, no clue why its not stated yet that only vunerable should get it and we move on from this circle jerk, as 0.0x% risk for most is nothing to warrant this idiotic idea that we should live under the rock because gov cant deal with majority of sick needing it in time to begin with, which they cant keep as is.

The idea is that pharma double the annual vaccine market thanks to covid. That is were this logic is coming from. Annual vaccinations, just like flu. Makes no sense, other than financial of course.

copeyhagen

Penfailed wrote: »

Is there anywhere in the world that is doing this?

yeah, Spain said 'once we get the number under '250' or whatever it was, we will open'. then they did straight away

Graces7

gozunda wrote: »

But eitherway - funny thing about under 65s is that they make up approx 50% of all those in hospital with covid. And let's hope we get vaccination rolled out as quickly as possible for everyone - because the Brazilian strain is now known to be putting even more young people in hospital than the UK one. We still need to keep the infection rate down for those reasons. It's as simple as that.

Which we do of course by keeping restrictions tight. Ireland is greatly admired in some other countries eg Canada for the way covid has been and is being handled from the very start. Yet some folk here seem to see it as that numbers being low means that it is not a serious problem.

PTH2009

Am i imagining things but is covid news mostly positive today ?

The North hoping to have some dates about reopening and then we have Leo here saying outdoor dining might be an option the end of May

Mental Mickey

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Got a text today. Getting my vaccine(first jab I presume?) on Tuesday afternoon.

Got my vaccine today. Feeling fairly OK...........been quite sleepy all afternoon though. 50% there......thank f**k.

Whatsisname

gozunda wrote: »

I'm not pulling it out of a hat you know. Its what the UK government has laid out as how its reviewing restrictions for all potential roll backs



https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-spring-2021/covid-19-response-spring-2021-summary

But yeah the UK is under some super strict lockdown. They even made travel for leisure or holiday purposes illegal

And yes Boris and friends are playing the game with their fingers crossed and their arses on fire imho.

I'm well aware of what the criteria is. I just said in my previous post that those steps are currently being met and thats why we're moving to step 2 next Monday. From last Monday, the stay at home rule ended. That was step 1. I don't know what the purpose of copying and pasting them back to me is.

And like I said to you before, the reality of what its like to live in England right now is very different from what you think.

I have travelled in and out of Manchester several times, I've travelled to London and back, all on public transport. I have friends and family who've done the same. Not once have I or they been asked where we're going like the guards back home seem to do. Last time I spoke to my parents, they said they were regularly being stopped at checkpoints asking where they were going.

I live next to two green spaces and a canal, all of which are heaving with people at the weekends, anytime I go to any of my local parks, they're busy, with families, young people, old people and everything in between. This has been the case since last Summer. There are very little people still living in fear.

The lockdown in Ireland is far more strict and always has been. I would much rather be in England right now than Ireland and I'm sure a lot of others would agree. You strike me as someone who would love nothing more than England having to put restrictions back in place.

lawred2

Pussyhands wrote: »

I see Colm Henry has been out saying the "outdoor transmission data is misleading".

I wish someone would say to him...."bit like your schools transmission data then?"

Or even more simply

"What's misleading about it?"

thebronze14

Benimar wrote: »

They were supposed to be closed. Doesn’t mean they were.

We closed ours, but in the 4 away games we played during that time, 3 had open dressing rooms which the home teams were using.

I play GAA and football in Dublin and in both I saw zero open dressing rooms. They shouldn't stop people playing because of a few rogue clubs. Don't use them if not and report if the club feels strongly enough

AlekSmart

11521323 wrote: »

There are two particular individuals on this thread who genuinely seem like they're being paid to push a certain agenda.

There's not an ounce of actual debate, just them trying their very best to discredit any and all claims of negligence, ineptitude or incompetence of anyone even tangentially associated with the Government. It's very strange.

In the context of negligence,ineptitude and the rest,it is interesting to see how the Asztra Zeneca issue is playing out.

I was quite surprised to learn that,both Pfizer and A/Z,were making haste to commence trials on infants and young children and to be honest I am equally srpiised at how quickly they have now suspended these tests (in the UK at any rate)

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0406/1208239-astrazeneca-children/

Many posters refer to following,or trusting "The Science" in matters Covid related,however sometimes Scientists themselves do not exactly inspire confidence through their statements...

The statement came after the EMA's head of vaccine strategy Marco Cavaleri was quoted in Italian media as saying that there was a "clear" connection and that the agency would announce it within hours.

"In my opinion, we can say it now, it is clear there is a link with the vaccine," Cavaleri told Italy's Il Messaggero newspaper in an interview. "But we still do not know what causes this reaction."

In the UK,a member of SAGE (Scientific ADVISORY Group for Emergencies) waxed lyrical in a somewhat less scientific,yet anecdotal manner..

In Britain, Sage adviser Professor Calum Semple urged people to continue accepting Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs, telling Channel 4 News: "This has been done out of exceptional caution and the big story still is that for a middle-aged, slightly overweight man, such as myself, my risk of death is one in 13,000 - the risk of this rare clot, which might not even be associated with the vaccine, is probably one in a million.

"So I'm still going to say it's better to get the vaccine than not get the vaccine and we can pause and take time to carefully consider the value for children because they're not at risk of death from Covid."

"Carefully considering" is perhaps the least one should do,in relation to expanding Covid vaccinations to Children,either your own or somebody else's.

copeyhagen

PTH2009 wrote: »

Am i imagining things but is covid news mostly positive today ?

The North hoping to have some dates about reopening and then we have Leo here saying outdoor dining might be an option the end of May

end of May!!! w4nkr

AlekSmart

lawred2 wrote: »

Or even more simply

"What's misleading about it?"

Dr Henry's quoted statement has been moved down the reporting line somewhat,RTE have slipped it into a sub-head about Care Home Infections rather than the stand alone it had been.

However his words do sound...."interesting"

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0406/1208074-coronavirus-ireland/

The data, reported in the Irish Times yesterday, shows that just one confirmed case of Covid-19 in every thousand is traced to outdoor transmission.

Speaking to RTÉ's News at One Dr Colm Henry said: "The message that does come across from this data is that in the purest sense, when people adhere to social distancing and other Covid measures, outdoor transmission is 19/20 times less likely that indoor transmission."

However, he said the data is "misleading in terms of the number because it pertains to outbreaks in outdoor settings, it doesn't really include all the other scenarios where people might acquire Covid when they congregate in any activity associated" with outdoor gatherings.

Dr Henry added: "We can't drop our guard at anytime."

To some observers,Dr Henry's attempt to pooh-pooh the Irish Times figures might even appear a bit frantic,as if he had been caught off guard by the normally Covid Compliant Media suddenly going rogue with their reportage.

I almost expected him to add...."Hold Firm","We're all in this together"

PTH2009

copeyhagen wrote: »

end of May!!! w4nkr

With the bank holiday been the 4th-7th June expect the start date to be from the 8th June or maybe from the 14th June

BH too risky for NPHET

lawred2

AlekSmart wrote: »

Dr Henry's quoted statement has been moved down the reporting line somewhat,RTE have slipped it into a sub-head about Care Home Infections rather than the stand alone it had been.

However his words do sound...."interesting"

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0406/1208074-coronavirus-ireland/



To some observers,Dr Henry's attempt to pooh-pooh the Irish Times figures might even appear a bit frantic,as if he had been caught off guard by the normally Covid Compliant Media suddenly going rogue with their reportage.

I almost expected him to add...."Hold Firm","We're all in this together"

Well RTE have led with it

Apparently the figures don't paint a full picture according to the HSE.

Funny, not having a complete picture like would be available were we to have an adequate track and trace system never gets highlighted by the HSE.

gozunda

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Its literally what it means. For every 1000 cases indoors there is 1 case outdoors.

True - For every 1000 cases indoors there was 1 case outdoors as measured during lockdown and previous periods of restrictions on outdoor activities.

As was previously detailed - its not so much 'outdoor' activities per se. Rather what happens around / in conjunction with such activities.

Now remove the restrictions and imagine what will happen with that 1 in 1000 statistic ...

AlekSmart

lawred2 wrote: »

Well RTE have led with it

Apparently the figures don't paint a full picture according to the HSE.

Funny, not having a complete picture like would be available were we to have an adequate track and trace system never gets highlighted by the HSE.

Well that's surprising is'nt it.....?

Contact tracing

Expenditure on contact tracing totalled €9.33 million in 2020. A further €5.8 million was spent on costs concerning the “test and trace” operational team.

Across 290 days from March to the end of December, the HSE carried out an average of 8,283 Covid-19 tests per day and reached a high point in October when the daily average was 14,521.

Separately, the HSE FOI unit has confirmed that the value of orders made for Covid-19 PPE last year totalled €859 million.

It seems the accountants will be quite busy when the Comptroller & Auditor General eventually gets round to flicking through the receipt book

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/hse-paid-enfer-122-4m-to-process-covid-tests-last-year-1.4507934

Enfer, the Tipperary diagnostics company controlled by businessman Louis Ronan, was last year paid €122.4 million to process Covid-19 tests.

New figures provided by the HSE show the executive’s spend on Covid-19 “test and tracing” last year totalled €280.48 million. It carried out 2.4 million Covid-19 tests.

Clonmel-based Enfer processed the Covid-19 tests from its Kildare labs on behalf of the National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL), which is led by Dr Cillian de Gascun.

The NVRL was last year paid €11.95 million for its central role in the testing regime, the HSE figures show.

Good to see some names at last appearing on the sidelines....;)

gozunda

Whatsisname wrote: »

I'm well aware of what the criteria is. I just said in my previous post that those steps are currently being met and thats why we're moving to step 2 next Monday. From last Monday, the stay at home rule ended. That was step 1. I don't know what the purpose of copying and pasting them back to me is....

The lockdown in Ireland is far more strict and always has been. I would much rather be in England right now than Ireland and I'm sure a lot of others would agree. You strike me as someone who would love nothing more than England having to put restrictions back in place.

Well you did state you didn't believe that the rollback was subject to the criteria as outlined. Its what is on paper as the UK roadmap. And yes it provides Boris and friends loads of wriggle room whilst playing to the crowd. That's the point.

And of course people are out and about. Like here you can go to work, go shopping, collect the kids when they're finished school. And yes major arterial routes are still busy trucks, vans, people going to work etc. People can also exercise. No one said otherwise. These are all permitted activities here and the UK. No idea what the constant harping on about this is tbh.

The lockdown here is no more strict than the UK. In fact on a global ranking scale - the UK is listed as being more strict.

And do leave the personal asides in the sewer where you got them please. Because you're wrong. I would not "love nothing more than England having to put restrictions back in place".
That's just stupidity especially considering where the UK are at with their vaccination roll out.

copeyhagen

gozunda wrote: »

True - For every 1000 cases indoors there is 1 case outdoors as measured during lockdown and previous periods of restrictions on outdoor activities.

As was previously detailed - its not so much 'outdoor' activities per se. Rather what happens around / in conjunction with such activities.

Now remove the restrictions and imagine what will happen with that 1 in 1000 statistic ...

ask spain and sweden