Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

arccosh

gozunda wrote: »

Boris et al are now even fudging those dates by making vague promises whilst all the time making their lockdown even more strict.

I've me outdoor pub date booked for later in the month

JDD

gozunda wrote: »

You sure about that?

But we certainly do - where those under 65 are deemed "at risk" and at "high risk" from infection.

Currently Group 4 are being been given their first dose of vaccine. This group includes all qualifying 16-69 year olds.

How many is that cohort?

Because he's not saying that we don't need under 65s to be vaccinated to prevent all infections, he's saying that we don't need under 65s to be vaccinated to open the economy.

The reason why the economy closed was to prevent hospitals being overrun. If our hospitals will not be overrun by the under 65s, high risk or not, then the economy should open. It's as simple as that.

CalamariFritti

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0406/1208074-coronavirus-ireland/

Speaking to RTÉ's News at One Dr Henry said: "The message that does come across from this data is that in the purest sense, when people adhere to social distancing and other Covid measures, outdoor transmission is 19/20 times less likely that indoor transmission."

However, he said the data is "misleading in terms of the number because it pertains to outbreaks in outdoor settings, it doesn't really include all the other scenarios where people might acquire Covid when they congregate in any activity associated" with outdoor gatherings.

Not sure we should listen to this guy when it comes to numbers and predictions.

0.1% outdoor transmission does not mean its 15/20 times less likely, it means its a fvckin 1000 times less likely.

JDD

gozunda wrote: »

No - long maudlin posts didling on about self sacrifice are generally just that.

The absolute majority have done what they can to observe restrictions to keep the rate of infection down and to help our health services cope with those of all ages who get ill and require specialised medical care.

There has always been a minority who either believe that covid is 'little more than flu" or don't simply want to give up the their 'right' to fek off to Spain for two weeks or whatever .

And now demands effectively asking the government to speculatively come up with dates for those who want to do just that.

Even the UK government have only provided provisional dates for restrictions to be rolled back - but only when a set of detailed criteria have been met. Boris et al are now even fudging those dates by making vague promises whilst all the time making their lockdown even more strict.

We are also on the road to providing vaccination all those who need it. And yes restrictions are being rolled backed. Looking for promises and exact dates which simply cannot be determined at this point in time is simply futile and makes little sense.

The only reason we can't provide dates is vaccine supply.

But we could certainly provide clear information to the public on what could reopen when certain percentages of certain cohorts are vaccinated, whenever that may be. Could MM not say "once all over 70's and X% of high risk adults are vaccinated, and on the previso there is no new vaccine resistent variant, we can open retail" and "once all over 70's and all high risk adults are vaccinated, we can open European travel" or some such?

It would give people such a boost and may ensure that people stick with restrictions where there is an undertaking to wind them down at a definite point.

VonLuck

CalamariFritti wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0406/1208074-coronavirus-ireland/



Not sure we should listen to this guy when it comes to numbers and predictions.

0.1% outdoor transmission does not mean its 15/20 times less likely, it means its a fvckin 1000 times less likely.

Just because 0.1% of cases were from outdoors doesn't mean that it's 1000 times less likely. You could have 1000 cases indoors and 1 outdoors, but are likely to be in much greater contact with people indoors, hence the higher numbers. Your time outdoors along with proximity with people is a big factor. I would say that he is suggesting that 19/20 times less likely when like is compared with like e.g. a group of people sitting at a dining table compared with a group of people sitting around a picnic table.

Boggles

JDD wrote: »

Could MM not say "once all over 70's and X% of high risk adults are vaccinated, and on the previso there is no new vaccine resistent variant, we can open retail"

He has said that and more.

By mid to late May all over 70s will be fully vaccinated

Taoiseach also announced on Tuesday that the Government will examine at the end of April the possible reopening of retail and hairdressers in May. Then, at the end of May, Ministers will assess whether the reopening of hotels, B&Bs and guesthouses will be possible the following month in June

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-vaccines-overhaul-sparks-anger-as-government-agrees-to-begin-easing-restrictions-from-mid-april-1.4523777

walus

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You said we should use science to reach herd immunity and I asked you: “And how do we do that exactly? If herd immunity is estimated to be between about 70-85%, how do we get there without the under 18s?”

Why do you assume that achieving herd immunity via old school methods of Mother Nature is not scientific? I’m sure that the young all well capable of contributing their piece to herd immunity without a vaccine.

Take the vaccine if you want and stop looking for reasons why everyone else around you also should.

VonLuck

Boggles wrote: »

He has said that and more.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-vaccines-overhaul-sparks-anger-as-government-agrees-to-begin-easing-restrictions-from-mid-april-1.4523777

Not quite. He just said that they will review. There's no metric to measure against, just another "we'll see in a few weeks". Needs to be more transparency about how they're deciding whether to open up certain sectors or not.

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

I'm not going to nit pick at all.

But the fact is that video is from January 2020.

The States had 5 confirmed cases at the time.

Have you anything more recent on his thoughts?

Hi Boggles.
I have found this updated study for you. It compares 54 separate studies and over 77,000 cases

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774102

In terms of Household transmission (where the disease is most transmissible) only 0.7% of asymptomatic or presymptomatic cases where found to have passed it on to a household contact compared to 18% in Symptomatic cases.

So if you are asymptomatic you will only pass it on to 7 of 1000 people you live with.
It's 25 times less likely than in the case of Symptomatic cases.

The key finding is below:

Study wrote:

To study the transmissibility of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 index cases, eFigure 8 in the Supplement summarizes 27 studies19-21,23-26,30,32-34,44,45,47,50,52-54,56,59-61,63,64,68,69,72 reporting household secondary attack rates from symptomatic index cases and 4 studies26,43,44,52 from asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases. Estimated mean household secondary attack rate from symptomatic index cases (18.0%; 95% CI, 14.2%-22.1%) was significantly higher than from asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases (0.7%; 95% CI, 0%-4.9%; P < .001), although there were few studies in the latter group. These findings are consistent with other household studies28,70 reporting asymptomatic index cases as having limited role in household transmission.

Boggles

VonLuck wrote: »

Not quite. He just said that they will review. There's no metric to measure against, just another "we'll see in a few weeks". Needs to be more transparency about how they're deciding whether to open up certain sectors or not.

Of course there is, the main metric is vaccine roll out, just like the UK.

May - Personal Services, Retail, Sports, etc.

June - Certain Hospitality

July - August - Most of everything else.

Relative to roll out it's actually more ambitious than the UK.

They have 31 million first dosed and are only opening Retail, Hair dressing, outdoor dining and gyms next week.

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

Hi Boggles.
I have found this updated study for you. It compares 54 separate studies and over 77,000 cases

Unless Doctor Fauci contributed to the study, which I don't think he did.

I can't see how it is relevant to what you claimed about him and what I asked.

Pussyhands

I see Colm Henry has been out saying the "outdoor transmission data is misleading".

I wish someone would say to him...."bit like your schools transmission data then?"

timmyntc

Boggles wrote: »

Unless Doctor Fauci contributed to the study, which I don't think he did.

I can't see how it is relevant to what you claimed about him and what I asked.

|_____|

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normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

Unless Doctor Fauci contributed to the study, which I don't think he did.

I can't see how it is relevant to what you claimed about him and what I asked.

You're some man for a circular argument Boggles!
Sorry I misread your retort and am just coming back to you now after work.
I only used Fauci as one example of an expert/body or study who had said Asymptomatic spread was not a significant issue.

Anyway what the study above shows is that if you are asymptomatically infected you'd have to live on average with 142 people just to pass it on to 1.

So going back to the original point, asymptomatic spread is not really a thing, so why other than as a means of bumping case numbers are we opening pop up testing centres exclusively for people who have no symptoms?

normanoffside

Pussyhands wrote: »

I see Colm Henry has been out saying the "outdoor transmission data is misleading".

I wish someone would say to him...."bit like your schools transmission data then?"

Yes he says that people might pass it on in the changing rooms, of course he is ignoring the fact that:

a) Changing rooms are not outdoors

b) when outdoor sport was allowed, changing rooms, clubhouses etc were all closed.

The report simply doesn't suit the NPHET narrative so they are out throwing mud at it.

VonLuck

Boggles wrote: »

Of course there is, the main metric is vaccine roll out, just like the UK.

May - Personal Services, Retail, Sports, etc.

June - Certain Hospitality

July - August - Most of everything else.

Relative to roll out it's actually more ambitious than the UK.

They have 31 million first dosed and are only opening Retail, Hair dressing, outdoor dining and gyms next week.

No, they're just loose dates based on their own internal assessment. If vaccinations slip or cases rises exponentially will they still stick to the dates? Not likely.

It needs to be based on vaccination numbers, ICU capacity and active covid cases. Dates mean nothing when things can change dramatically over the space of a few weeks.

El_Duderino 09

walus wrote: »

Why do you assume that achieving herd immunity via old school methods of Mother Nature is not scientific? I’m sure that the young all well capable of contributing their piece to herd immunity without a vaccine.

Take the vaccine if you want and stop looking for reasons why everyone else around you also should.

So just let it rip through the young and let them spread it hither and yon and it does so? We could do that or we could just vaccinate them the same as everyone else.

Fact is that without the young being vaccinated we can’t achieve herd immunity (according to the estimates). Which increases the chances of needing more severe restrictions next winter. We just need to vaccinate everyone systematically and achieve herd immunity in as organised and comprehensive way as possible.

That way we can confidently leave restrictions in the past and deal with any outbreaks, locally and quickly.

Responder XY

normanoffside wrote: »

Yes he says that people might pass it on in the changing rooms, of course he is ignoring the fact that:

a) Changing rooms are not outdoors

b) when outdoor sport was allowed, changing rooms, clubhouses etc were all closed.

The report simply doesn't suit the NPHET narrative so they are out throwing mud at it.

And this is why NPHET continues to fail, they have never shown any understanding of the Human need to have social contact. They should be jumping on this study to promote return of low risk activity which would help people to get through longer restrictions on high risk activities. Instead they still view this as an all or nothing situation and insist on a no-risk set of rules which really gives no prospect of long term success.

Benimar

normanoffside wrote: »

Yes he says that people might pass it on in the changing rooms, of course he is ignoring the fact that:

a) Changing rooms are not outdoors

b) when outdoor sport was allowed, changing rooms, clubhouses etc were all closed.

The report simply doesn't suit the NPHET narrative so they are out throwing mud at it.

They were supposed to be closed. Doesn’t mean they were.

We closed ours, but in the 4 away games we played during that time, 3 had open dressing rooms which the home teams were using.

walus

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

So just let it rip through the young and let them spread it hither and yon and it does so? We could do that or we could just vaccinate them the same as everyone else.

Fact is that without the young being vaccinated we can’t achieve herd immunity (according to the estimates). Which increases the chances of needing more severe restrictions next winter. We just need to vaccinate everyone systematically and achieve herd immunity in as organised and comprehensive way as possible.

That way we can confidently leave restrictions in the past and deal with any outbreaks, locally and quickly.

Was this perpetual lockdown strategy not implemented to protect the old and vulnerable? With those groups of people and additional individuals who also wish to be vaccinated protected, there is no one left to protect. No need for vaccinating the young, no need for lockdown, and consequently no space for curtain twitchers. Happy days.

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

You're some man for a circular argument Boggles!

I wasn't having an argument circular or otherwise.

I asked a very concise question to a very specific thing.

normanoffside wrote: »

This is not News though. It’s been known for almost a year. It’s been mentioned in this thread and others multiple time. Even the WHO have said asymptomatic spread is not a thing it and even Gerry Killeen says it to this day, Fauci has also said it.

Boggles wrote: »

Did he, when?

You respond with a video with out answering the question posted by "TRUTHER-NEWS" uploaded on March 2021.

The answer which I subsequently fact checked myself, was January 28th 2020.

Now you have since published a study that says asymptomatic spread does happen all be it much rarer than symptomatic or presymptomatic spread, all thought the limitations of the study point out much more research needs to be conducted.

So what have learned.

1. Don't get your information from "TRUTHER-NEWS"

2. Asymptomatic spread is a thing, but more study needs to be carried to determine exactly how much of a thing it is.

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

2. Asymptomatic spread is a thing, but more study needs to be carried to determine exactly how much of a thing it is.

Why does more study need to be done?
I have linked you a paper that looks at 55 separate studies and the conclusion is that Asymptomatic transmission is 25 times less likely that Symptomatic transmission.

Given that Symptomatic Covid has an R rate of 3 without restrictions (correct me if I m wrong on that) then Asymptomatic infection has an R rate of 0.12.

In other words it would die out very quickly if the index case was always asymptomatic.

Therefore it is very true to say that Asymptomatic spread really is not a thing.

gozunda

arccosh wrote: »

I've me outdoor pub date booked for later in the month

Yeah reckon outdoor pubs there will probably be allowed considering how far the UK is with its vaccination schedule

But hope you don't have your flight booked for that camp site in France ... :pac:

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

Why does more study need to be done?

That's what the study you linked to says in the study you linked to.

You'll have to take it up with them.

normanoffside wrote: »

I have linked you a paper that looks at 55 separate studies and the conclusion is that Asymptomatic transmission is 25 times less likely that Symptomatic transmission.

According to you it didn't exist this morning, so I guess progress?

arccosh

gozunda wrote: »

Yeah reckon outdoor pubs there will probably be allowed considering how far the UK is with its vaccination schedule

But hope you don't have your flight booked for that camp site in France ... :pac:

they are allowed, it was announced yesterday, beer gardens open from Monday 12th

scamalert

walus wrote: »

Was this perpetual lockdown strategy not implemented to protect the old and vulnerable? With those groups of people and additional individuals who also wish to be vaccinated protected, there is no one left to protect. No need for vaccinating the young, no need for lockdown, and consequently no space for curtain twitchers. Happy days.

well if it takes 4-6 months just to get vulnerable vaccinated and idea is to do 2-3 million extra so by the time they finish people who got the first one will need to be vaccinated again, no clue why its not stated yet that only vunerable should get it and we move on from this circle jerk, as 0.0x% risk for most is nothing to warrant this idiotic idea that we should live under the rock because gov cant deal with majority of sick needing it in time to begin with, which they cant keep as is.

gozunda

JDD wrote: »

How many is that cohort?Because he's not saying that we don't need under 65s to be vaccinated to prevent all infections, he's saying that we don't need under 65s to be vaccinated to open the economy.

The reason why the economy closed was to prevent hospitals being overrun. If our hospitals will not be overrun by the under 65s, high risk or not, then the economy should open. It's as simple as that.

No idea- did you look it up?

No he's talking about under 45s for some odd reason. Id say its more correct to say we've been managing infection rates to allow the hospital to be able to cope and to keep infection rates down.


But no the economy is not "closed". Ireland was the only EU economy to make any significant gain last year. But yes significant sectors are severely curtailed atm.

But eitherway - funny thing about under 65s is that they make up approx 50% of all those in hospital with covid. And let's hope we get vaccination rolled out as quickly as possible for everyone - because the Brazilian strain is now known to be putting even more young people in hospital than the UK one. We still need to keep the infection rate down for those reasons. It's as simple as that.

NIMAN

gozunda wrote: »

No idea- did you look it up?

No he's talking about under 45s for some odd reason. Id say its more correct to say we've been managing infection rates to allow the hospital to be able to cope and to keep infection rates down.


But no the economy is not "closed". Ireland was the only EU economy to make any significant gain last year. But yes significant sectors are severely curtailed atm.

But eitherway - funny thing about under 65s is that they make up approx 50% of all those in hospital with covid. And let's hope we get vaccination rolled out as quickly as possible for everyone - because the Brazilian strain is now known to be putting even more young people in hospital than the UK one. We still need to keep the infection rate down fir those reasons. It's as simple as that.

But hospital numbers in Ireland and UK are falling off quickly.
Where is it putting young people in hospital?

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

According to you it didn't exist this morning, so I guess progress?

To be honest I'm just going to block you at this point. You're a time sink to me.

gozunda

JDD wrote: »

The only reason we can't provide dates is vaccine supply.

But we could certainly provide clear information to the public on what could reopen when certain percentages of certain cohorts are vaccinated, whenever that may be. Could MM not say "once all over 70's and X% of high risk adults are vaccinated, and on the previso there is no new vaccine resistent variant, we can open retail" and "once all over 70's and all high risk adults are vaccinated, we can open European travel" or some such?

It would give people such a boost and may ensure that people stick with restrictions where there is an undertaking to wind them down at a definite point.

I get what you're saying about morale. The fact is there are no easily predictable dates.

Do you know any country on the planet which is taking that type of random dartboard approach you outlined?

The UK have 4 different sets of criteria which must be met before any of the restrictions are being reviewed. The government here have outlined similar but minus the vague timeline the UK put in place but which isn't worth the paper tbh ..

Other countries have similar. Not sure why we in Ireland should close our eyes and blindly take a step in the dark just because...