Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

bennyl10

kleiner feigling wrote: »

#1 - Correlation is not causation.
#2 - As mentioned, PCR can detect virus, but it detects dead and inactive virus, which has no bearing on infectivity (ie. Covid negative)

PCR is, for the most part, a very affective tool against and in detecting Covid.

‘As mentioned’ by one article you put forward which also states the reason PCR is used

mohawk

kleiner feigling wrote: »

#2 - As mentioned, PCR can detect virus, but it detects dead and inactive virus, which has no bearing on infectivity (ie. Covid negative)

Does this really matter if most people being tested either have symptoms, are close contacts to someone with symptoms or a person who is getting tested regularly due to their work.
If you want to break transmission then you are better off getting a few false positives over false negatives. Sure it’s inconvenient for person involved but PCR is best most reliable test we have.

kleiner feigling

bennyl10 wrote: »

PCR is, for the most part, a very affective tool against and in detecting Covid.

‘As mentioned’ by one article you put forward which also states the reason PCR is used

Yes it can detect the virus, I said that.
It also detects dead/inactive virus which is irrelevant to risk (but may be useful in identifying old/resolved cases).

kleiner feigling

mohawk wrote: »

Does this really matter if most people being tested either have symptoms, are close contacts to someone with symptoms or a person who is getting tested regularly due to their work.
If you want to break transmission then you are better off getting a few false positives over false negatives. Sure it’s inconvenient for person involved but PCR is best most reliable test we have.

I would agree, except large numbers of asymtpomatic people are being tested in the walk in centres.
I'm not arguing to stop using PCR or anything. It has its place, and it has it's limitations. I'd argue that due to its limitations, we should have less public emphasis on these results.

MrMusician18

seamus wrote: »

Early numbers today; 658 positive swabs in 22,296.

2.95%

Not terrible, but a deviation from the decent performance over the last couple of days, and a very large swab number. I wonder are there some specific outbreaks *cough* intel *cough* bumping it up.

You might need to go get tested yourself

AdamD

ginoginelli wrote: »

I'm worryingly hearing pubs and cafe owners taking about how covid compliant they were in the past and plan to be in future. Many of them and other indoor businesses are still talking about 1 metre distance and putting hand sanatizers on every table etc.

The cynic in me doesnt think this is just a poorly educated stance, many of these business simply cant afford or are not able to ventilate their businesses properly and are deliberately playing dumb.

Its super importantly that the goverment spell the updated message out to these people and sanction them if they dont comply.

Also antigen tests and vaccine bonus perks should be utilized anywhere where there is increased risk.

By the time these businesses are allowed to open indoors (Late July I believe Martin suggested today), every adult in the country will have been offered a vaccine. If we're still worrying about ventilation at that point we may well pack in hospitality forever.

funnydoggy

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40278446.html

Donnelly: Five-level system to define Covid-19 'largely gone'

:pac: :pac:

cheezums

funnydoggy wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40278446.html

Donnelly: Five-level system to define Covid-19 'largely gone'

:pac: :pac:

LOL what a monumental waste of time.

Happydays2020

To facilitate people travelling to and from the country we need to have a testing centres at our airports. As a priority.

Deeper Blue

funnydoggy wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40278446.html

Donnelly: Five-level system to define Covid-19 'largely gone'

:pac: :pac:

Were any of levels 1,2 or 4 used even once?

Marcusm

speckle wrote: »

Speaking of ventillation..anybody know a good cheap deal on a pop up gazebo..preferable a dark colour...thats available for delievery? Any Irish entreperneur with a good website?

Vidaxl.ie is probably the go to for delivery of stuff like this.

ednwireland

Happydays2020 wrote: »

To facilitate people travelling to and from the country we need to have a testing centres at our airports. As a priority.

they are in the plan for sept 2022

Martina1991

kleiner feigling wrote: »

The PCR tests results are unreliable at best. The results cannot be assumed to be legitimate "cases".

"The PCR technology used in tests to detect viruses cannot distinguish between viruses capable of infecting cells and viruses that have been neutralized by the immune system and therefore these tests cannot be used to determine whether someone is contagious or not. RNA from viruses can often be detected for weeks (sometimes months) after the illness but does not mean that you are still contagious."

So because of the caveat that the technology can detect dead viral material, you're dismissing the validity of all results as being "unreliable at best".

The technology alone does not infer that a positive result is a case. Weak positive samples are repeated. People with symptoms and exposure to the virus are tested.
Although walk in test centres are open to asymptomatic people, they are placed in specific areas with increased transmission in the community.

Detecting positive cases in cohorts of people that are likely to have the virus contributes to the validity of the result that these are true cases.

daydorunrun

funnydoggy wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40278446.html

Donnelly: Five-level system to define Covid-19 'largely gone'

:pac: :pac:

cheezums wrote: »

LOL what a monumental waste of time.

And money, we got several pamphlets in the post in English and Irish giving detailed infographics of the different levels. Think I'll keep it in the draw with my iodine tablets.

Dr. Em

Happydays2020 wrote: »

To facilitate people travelling to and from the country we need to have a testing centres at our airports. As a priority.

There are already private testing centres there. Some countries have free testing upon arrival to try to prevent infection coming into the country, but that is generally only practical if small numbers are travelling. Dublin airport, even with only 5-10 percent of its usual numbers, handles too large a number of passengers.
For outgoing tests, the general consensus seems to be that if you can afford a flight, you can afford a test.

shtpEdthePlum

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But anyway, back to anomalous country stats, Gibraltar and the Seychelles are the top most vaccinated places in the world. Gibraltar is right down in cases, Seychelles at 68% vaccinated is up in cases. 100 cases yesterday in a population less than 100,000 people. That would be like 5000 cases here. Odd.

The UAE has come down from a peak but leveled out at high numbers. 2000 cases yesterday in a population of 9 million, so would be 1000 cases here, for comparison. The UAE has 40% of their population fully vaccinated.

37% of Bahrain is fully vaccinated and they are still mostly going up in cases. 1000 cases yesterday in a population one third the size of ours.

Chile has 45% of population vaccinated. 6700 cases yesterday in a population about 3 and a half times our population.

Isle of Man had their biggest peak of covid in mid March 2021. There the quick vaccine roll out started in January.

Bhutan has had very little covid generally. 1 death. 62% are fully vaccinated. The population is less than 800,000. They had what could be called their highest wave in December, with cases for a week or so in the high 20s. They are having another little wave and cases hit the 20s in the last few days. Numbers are small but occur nonetheless in spite of very high vaccination rate.


All to say that things may not be what they seem. Time will tell.

Sinovac.

Eod100

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1388121516160729090

Vicxas

545 cases and 4 deaths

Early today

wadacrack

545 cases, 4 deaths. High number in Dublin

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1388122710182699010

shinzon

Theres a NPHET briefing on now as well

Shin

Faugheen

Philip Nolan doesn’t seem too concerned. Saying any increase appears to be transient and are settling down.

kleiner feigling

Martina1991 wrote: »

So because of the caveat that the technology can detect dead viral material, you're dismissing the validity of all results as being "unreliable at best".

I never used the word ALL

It does detect both active and inactive virus, and that should be kept in mind.
Many people do not realise this, and see 300 "cases" reported in the news and assume it means 300 sick people, when in fact it may not even mean 300 infected people.
As we are now testing asymptomatic people, and the virus has been circulating for a year, it is likely that false positives will be picked up from previous infection (also asymptomatic in many cases).
It is very hard to know how many people had asymptomatic infection in the past, but if you test them now they may well yield positive tests based on prior infections which have no bearing on the current state of affairs.

Faugheen

People should be watching this. Philip Nolan showing modelling for post May 10th and June 7th and how the vaccines will impact on hospital numbers from an inevitable increase in cases.

It’s a good thing. Just before the usual naysayers read one quote taken completely out of context.

shinzon

Professor Philip Nolan said there is no certainty about the next few weeks. He said the reopening next month will be "low to medium risk" once people abide by the public health guidelines

Plain and simple abide by all the remaining restrictions and we should be fine till the vaccination programme is complete.

Shin

muddypuppy

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Were any of levels 1,2 or 4 used even once?

I think we went to 2+ for a couple weeks last summer, right? And then level ~4 for a couple of weeks for the border counties.
I don't remember any level being used as it was written the first time, every time there was some plus, minus, whatever added.

AlmightyCushion

kleiner feigling wrote: »

I never used the word ALL

It does detect both active and inactive virus, and that should be kept in mind.
Many people do not realise this, and see 300 "cases" reported in the news and assume it means 300 sick people, when in fact it may not even mean 300 infected people.
As we are now testing asymptomatic people, and the virus has been circulating for a year, it is likely that false positives will be picked up from previous infection (also asymptomatic in many cases).
It is very hard to know how many people had asymptomatic infection in the past, but if you test them now they may well yield positive tests based on prior infections which have no bearing on the current state of affairs.

Ok, so if this is responsible for so many of our cases now why wasn't it back last summer when we were getting days with 4 or 5 cases.

Eod100

Fairly positive NPHET briefing. One of the most positive in a while if not ever tbh.

robbiezero

Pandiculation wrote: »

To be fair, people were very complaint or, at least very careful and pragmatic, as otherwise we wouldn’t have reduced transmission so dramatically and rapidly.

We should be taking advantage of the fact that we are mostly a very low density country with a lot of fresh air.

The climate here from now until almost October is very benign. It’s not the Mediterranean, but it’s not very hot or cold. Other than it can be showery, it’s very compatible with being outdoors and 100% comptable with easy, natural ventilation. You don’t need tons of air conditioning.

I'd imagine its more to do with that a lot of the restrictions particularly outdoor are just rubbish. Once people were any bit careful indoors, transmission was always going to drop like a stone.

There is absolutely no doubt that there were hundreds of thousands of people in groups drinking last weekend breaking restrictions and yet no real spike in cases. You couldn't have thrown a stone in Dublin last Saturday and Sunday without hitting someone breaking restrictions.

Pandiculation

funnydoggy wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40278446.html

Donnelly: Five-level system to define Covid-19 'largely gone'

:pac: :pac:

I would kind of agree with him on this. The Levels system seems like a good idea but I think it ended up becoming brick wall to keep running into as it was far too inflexible and removed the ability to adapt to changing circumstances and evolving knowledge too.

I know they needed clear communication, but it just seemed far too rigid a system to me.

Most of the time we ended up with Level 3++ or level 5A-
It got a bit ridiculous.

timmyntc

wadacrack wrote: »

545 cases, 4 deaths. High number in Dublin

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1388122710182699010

Must be close to 1 in 10 in Donegal infected with the virus at this stage