2021 Irish EV sales

innrain

sk8board wrote: »

Well the model 3 and the ID3 are both 5-door hatchbacks/saloon, whatever way you cut it.

We can only buy the cars sold in Ireland, therefore the worldwide market is absolutely unimportant.

Apr-June 2021 is critical for Tesla in Ireland, but VW have delivered 550 EVs so far in Apr and May, to Tesla’s 63.
You can’t honestly believe that most of those VW buyers didn’t at least have a cursory look at the Tesla at some point, but decided to choose something else.

As we said above, if you wanted a M3, you can have it quicker than the VW at the moment.

We’ve talked about it here for the past few years - what will happen to Tesla volumes in Ireland once the fans have their cars delivered. June and July deliveries will answer that question quite conclusively

If you consider ID.3 and Model 3 similar in shape/form/class I have noting else to say. Just to cite Black_Knight "They're both white"

the_amazing_raisin

innrain wrote: »

If you consider ID.3 and Model 3 similar in shape/form/class I have noting else to say. Just to cite Black_Knight "They're both white"

Ah they've more in common than that, they both have 4 wheels

sk8board

innrain wrote: »

If you consider ID.3 and Model 3 similar in shape/form/class I have noting else to say. Just to cite Black_Knight "They're both white"

Who mentioned shape, form or class.

I’m simply suggesting that people buying a family EV, their first ever EV in 99% of cases, would be looking at the ID3, 4 and model 3, on their shortlist - but the price of the Tesla would rule it out immediately for almost everyone.
it’s clear in the registrations that buyers are now looking past it. 63 deliveries in the past 2 months is simply awful for them, and there’s clearly no delivery issues.

The notion that Tesla are ‘so far ahead of the rest’ is simply no longer valid here in Ireland. They're already lagging far behind as the market opens up and the prices become more realistic. Their prices meanwhile are going up.

Can you imagine in July buying an LR M3, with an option or maybe two, and on their 5-year finance, and the end price costs you over €70k (and then you’re left to sell it privately I guess).
You’re dreaming if you think that’s the future for the mass market buyer, versus the fanboys, and we’re very quickly running out of Irish Tesla fanboys to support the volumes.

The tide is going out ....

AndyBoBandy

sk8board wrote: »

63 deliveries in the past 2 months is simply awful for them, and there’s clearly no delivery issues.

You do know that Tesla deliver the cars in phases based on how soon they can get them to Europe from America/China?

March and June are the big delivery months for Tesla in Ireland in 1H.. the 63 cars they sold in April & May would have been inventory cars which would have been cancelled orders in the U.K./Ireland, or spare cars sent in each shipment that are purposely not sold in order to allow them have a few cars ‘in stock’ for fast sales like April/May…..

From next week onwards for a 2-3 week period, they’ll be delivering 63+ cars per week.


Every car Tesla has ever shipped to Ireland has been sold. Any inventory cars you see on their site claiming that they are in Dublin are actually sitting in a yard in Southampton.

So I’d imagine Tesla aren’t too upset that VW have ‘stolen a March on them, with no cars that directly compete with what Tesl currently sell in Europe…

Jizique

liamog wrote: »

At least in Europe, VW and Tesla compete in different markets, Tesla's target market is BMW and Audi drivers, not VW and Nissan's.
Tesla need to drop around €15k off the entry purchase price to compete in the mass market game.

Tesla thinks its target is BMW and Audi, perhaps the A3 and 1/2 series, the Merc CLA.
Reality is VW is the biggest target, the Golf or Arteon/Passat segment.
Actually, in reality, sales in the largest EU market of Germany are so low it is hard to see where the volume is coming from.

liamog

Jizique wrote: »

Tesla thinks its target is BMW and Audi, perhaps the A3 and 1/2 series, the Merc CLA.
Reality is VW is the biggest target, the Golf or Arteon/Passat segment.

Just because it's a big target, doesn't mean they are aiming for it. Back in 2019 USA, the BMW 3 Series was the most traded German car for a Model 3, with the next one on the list being an Audi A4. Other noticeable standouts were Priuses, and the Honda Accord.

VW won't really be competing in the same car segment as a Model 3 until they release the ID.Vizzion based models, which are due next year. My guess is they'll be VW's offering below the price and Audi's A4 e-Tron equivalent priced slightly above Tesla.

sk8board

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

From next week onwards for a 2-3 week period, they’ll be delivering 63+ cars per week.

That’s still v poor numbers in what’s their most important month here, with the prices are going up.
On July 1, a financed LR, the sweetspot, with a paint option, becomes a €70k car.

let’s see the sales for the rest of the year when the prices change. It’s really really hard to see people choosing Tesla who aren’t already in the ‘Tesla-only’ bracket.

Oafley Jones

I’m still fascinated by the company and the struggle to transform into a true volume seller, but I’ve completed lost interest in Tesla as a future purchase. They’ve missed the boat with me. Anyone I know IRL is the same and that includes two people who had preorders for the model 3 first day.

the_amazing_raisin

sk8board wrote: »

That’s still v poor numbers in what’s their most important month here, with the prices are going up.
On July 1, a financed LR, the sweetspot, with a paint option, becomes a €70k car.

let’s see the sales for the rest of the year when the prices change. It’s really really hard to see people choosing Tesla who aren’t already in the ‘Tesla-only’ bracket.

I agree that the SR+ is the only affordable option after the grant gets dropped, unless Tesla drop prices

Same thing applies to all other EVs in the luxury segment, so it'll likely hurt sales in that segment overall, rather than specifically Tesla

Personally I'm glad for all the competition, drives better value for customers and more innovation from manufacturers

Jizique

the_amazing_raisin wrote: »

I agree that the SR+ is the only affordable option after the grant gets dropped, unless Tesla drop prices

Same thing applies to all other EVs in the luxury segment, so it'll likely hurt sales in that segment overall, rather than specifically Tesla

Personally I'm glad for all the competition, drives better value for customers and more innovation from manufacturers

And that’s why VW has the advantage; they need to sell them to get their carbon footprint down, so they will do so aggressively - even Merc and BM can get by on their PHEV (not saying they are a good product) but VW largely eschewed them in favor of EV

AndyBoBandy

sk8board wrote: »

That’s still v poor numbers in what’s their most important month here

Poor numbers compared to what though? I still maintain that Tesla sell every car they manufacture, and are one of the highest valued car companies ever, So I can't imagine the board are sh1tting bricks because a lowly market like Ireland is only buying a few of their cars... or about 1 thousandth of what they've produced since day 1.

If you want to know how much they care about Ireland, look at the number of Supercharger sites here..

They have far, far bigger fish to fry than Ireland. The price will remain the price because the cars are still selling.. if sales slow for the LR & P after July, they might drop the price, or they might not. If someone still wants one, they'll get one.


*Just like to add, though I have a Tesla, I'm no 'fanboy' who drinks the Musk koolaid... I came from a BMW, and was very close to importing an A5/6 last year before deciding to go EV, and the only thing that stuck out to me was the Model 3.

I couldn't really give a ****e how many more cars they sell in Ireland, but I know that my next car will most likely be a Tesla again (or an e-tron GT, depending what mood were in).

the_amazing_raisin

Jizique wrote: »

And that’s why VW has the advantage; they need to sell them to get their carbon footprint down, so they will do so aggressively - even Merc and BM can get by on their PHEV (not saying they are a good product) but VW largely eschewed them in favor of EV

True, in fairness to VW it seems to be more than greenwashing. If they were just aiming for compliance then they'd just keep adapting their fossil platforms instead of designing a dedicated platform

I do think that VW's long term strategy is for large scale EV conversion. I agree that in the short term their EV sales have extra value because they count towards emissions targets

However those fossil sales are also bankrolling the development of more EVs, so I'm going to call it even on that regard

Disclaimer: I will freely admit I'm a bit of a VW fanboy, I've an ID.4 and I think it's the best car I've ever driven

cannco253

How low can you go? Volkswagen throws down the emissions gauntlet

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/how-low-can-you-go-volkswagen-throws-down-emissions-gauntlet-2021-05-05/

sk8board

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Poor numbers compared to what though? I still maintain that Tesla sell every car they manufacture, and are one of the highest valued car companies ever, So I can't imagine the board are sh1tting bricks because a lowly market like Ireland is only buying a few of their cars... or about 1 thousandth of what they've produced since day 1.

If you want to know how much they care about Ireland, look at the number of Supercharger sites here..

They have far, far bigger fish to fry than Ireland. The price will remain the price because the cars are still selling.. if sales slow for the LR & P after July, they might drop the price, or they might not. If someone still wants one, they'll get one. in).

I think that’s our point - Tesla haven’t a waiting list for their cars, so of course they sell all the ones they make.
As we saw in China yesterday, their sales dropped by half last month. Ireland isn’t the only place where Tesla volumes and/or market share is taking a hit - and it’s not because they’ve done something wrong necessarily, but the other manufacturers have turned out some great products and far more cost effective.

The only person paying €70k for the LR in July will be someone who only has eyes for ‘a Tesla’, whereas cars like the ID4 will sweep up all the folks trading in their Tiguan’s and theres an EV version of it in the same garage, at the same price range.

Laviski

Main point that will hurt Tesla is that they have only one dealership in the republic, that will hurt them more imo than the price of the car.

Other companies have a presence on people's doorstep or at least not that far away. It's a consideration that has much weight in my books. Even if courtesy car provided, it's my time spent.

Casati

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Poor numbers compared to what though? I still maintain that Tesla sell every car they manufacture, and are one of the highest valued car companies ever, So I can't imagine the board are sh1tting bricks because a lowly market like Ireland is only buying a few of their cars... or about 1 thousandth of what they've produced since day 1.

If you want to know how much they care about Ireland, look at the number of Supercharger sites here..

They have far, far bigger fish to fry than Ireland. The price will remain the price because the cars are still selling.. if sales slow for the LR & P after July, they might drop the price, or they might not. If someone still wants one, they'll get one.


*Just like to add, though I have a Tesla, I'm no 'fanboy' who drinks the Musk koolaid... I came from a BMW, and was very close to importing an A5/6 last year before deciding to go EV, and the only thing that stuck out to me was the Model 3.

I couldn't really give a ****e how many more cars they sell in Ireland, but I know that my next car will most likely be a Tesla again (or an e-tron GT, depending what mood were in).

In terms of sales trending and market share, it looks like Tesla is on rocky ground. Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy wrote Wednesday that Tesla’s market share is declining, falling from 29% of global EV sales in March to 11% in April.

Give it just 6 months and direct competitors from BMW/ Audi/ Ford/ Polestar along with cheaper EV's from VW, Hyundai are dealerships globally and Tesla will be forced to dramatically cut prices, as aside from drag race sprints this is all that they will be able to compete on. Current sales volume will not justify the massive investment and share price so they have to dramatically grow volume to survive as an auto manufacturer.

AndyBoBandy

Casati wrote: »

In terms of sales trending and market share, it looks like Tesla is on rocky ground. Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy wrote Wednesday that Tesla’s market share is declining, falling from 29% of global EV sales in March to 11% in April.

In a market growing as fast as BEV's, that was always going to happen once the bigger players finally got on board, and Tesla would have been well aware of this (in fact they actually encouraged it)... means nothing in the grand scheme of things... Tesla's market share has declined yes, but they are still selling more and more cars each quarter.

Toyota had a 100% market share in 'Self Charging Hybrids' when the Prius came out, and I'd be pretty sure that share is a lot less than 100% now, but doesn't mean Toyota haven't been churning out and selling more and more 'Self Charging Hybrids' year on year....

Tesla are a premium brand niche car manufacturer (laugh all you want, but that's what they are), and have their place in the market.

the_amazing_raisin

Laviski wrote: »

Main point that will hurt Tesla is that they have only one dealership in the republic, that will hurt them more imo than the price of the car.

Other companies have a presence on people's doorstep or at least not that far away. It's a consideration that has much weight in my books. Even if courtesy car provided, it's my time spent.

This is something that pushed me towards VW in the end, there's a VW dealership within walking distance whereas Tesla's service center is on the other side of the city in one of the most heavily trafficked areas

If/when something goes wrong, it's a lot simpler to bring it to VW instead of Tesla

I think it's an important factor for a lot of people, having a couple more Tesla service centers would alleviate this considerably

AndyBoBandy

Laviski wrote: »

Main point that will hurt Tesla is that they have only one dealership in the republic, that will hurt them more imo than the price of the car.

Other companies have a presence on people's doorstep or at least not that far away. It's a consideration that has much weight in my books. Even if courtesy car provided, it's my time spent.

This is a big disadvantage alright, and I'd guess when sales slow, and they need to change tack (when buyers are no longer willing to come to them), they'll start popping up with more and more locations.. (only a few months ago Sandyford served the whole island, now Belfast is up and running, and I'd say Cork would be next).

cannco253

https://www.am-online.com/news/car-manufacturer-news/2021/01/07/tesla-expands-uk-dealer-network

If they can expand the dealership network in the UK, is there an argument for more here - not sure if the sales are enough to justify it at the moment, but if not now, when do we reach the tipping point for say a dealer in Cork/Limerick/Galway?

AndyBoBandy

cannco253 wrote: »

https://www.am-online.com/news/car-manufacturer-news/2021/01/07/tesla-expands-uk-dealer-network

If they can expand the dealership network in the UK, is there an argument for more here - not sure if the sales are enough to justify it at the moment, but if not now, when do we reach the tipping point for say a dealer in Cork/Limerick/Galway?

Probably when the Berlin produced RHD Model Y becomes available..... as well as Berlin produced Model 3..

this is when the price reductions will happen

Casati

cannco253 wrote: »

https://www.am-online.com/news/car-manufacturer-news/2021/01/07/tesla-expands-uk-dealer-network

If they can expand the dealership network in the UK, is there an argument for more here - not sure if the sales are enough to justify it at the moment, but if not now, when do we reach the tipping point for say a dealer in Cork/Limerick/Galway?

Tesla approach to add sales shops isn’t the same as a full service dealer - Ie who can part ex your 2 or 3 year old trade in and retail it, and who can offer service, valet and demo cars etc. They only have 12 service centres in all of the U.K., BMW have over 150.

MG already have 6 full dealers in Ireland. Tesla haven’t copped in that dealers help to sell cars

TitianGerm

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

This is a big disadvantage alright, and I'd guess when sales slow, and they need to change tack (when buyers are no longer willing to come to them), they'll start popping up with more and more locations.. (only a few months ago Sandyford served the whole island, now Belfast is up and running, and I'd say Cork would be next).

Was Belfast not opened to give them a presence in the North post Brexit?

sk8board

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Tesla are a premium brand niche car manufacturer (laugh all you want, but that's what they are), and have their place in the market.

true, but the folks who buy a 3/4/5 series, or an A4/5/6 - people with €55-65k to spend on a car, aren’t foolish.
Those cars sell in huge volume each year, pretty much without a single fanboy sale. Tesla have sold a bunch of their Irish M3’s to folks who sat for years on a waiting list. (who remembers ‘marine traffic watch Oct 2019’?)

What’s happening now is that they’re relying on the average Joe car buyer - and they aren’t biting, but are buying something else.
That tells you something about the Tesla product offering is not right.

The M3 itself is very impressive, of course, but not remotely close to €65k impressive.
VW on the other hand have priced the ID4 so well that it’s hard to see why you wouldn’t choose it ahead of the similar priced Tiguan.

The product positioning makes the difference - Tesla have positioned the price of the M3 in Ireland against the wrong competitors.

Jizique

sk8board wrote: »

VW on the other hand have priced the ID4 so well that it’s hard to see why you’d choose it ahead of the similar priced Tiguan.

Do you mean the opposite, that it’s hard to see why you wouldn’t choose it ahead of the Tiguan?
Apols if I pick you up wrong, I have no detailed info on the price of the products

AndyBoBandy

sk8board wrote: »

true, but the folks who buy a 3/4/5 series, or an A4/5/6 - people with €55-65k to spend on a car, aren’t foolish.
Those cars sell in huge volume each year, pretty much without a single fanboy sale. Tesla have sold a bunch of their Irish M3’s to folks who sat for years on a waiting list. (who remembers ‘marine traffic watch Oct 2019’?)

What’s happening now is that they’re relying on the average Joe car buyer - and they aren’t biting, but are buying something else.
That tells you something about the Tesla product offering is not right.
.

I'm not so sure about that... I was an average Joe buyer when I ordered a Model 3 in January 2020, having barely even noticed the existence of Tesla prior to that other than they were 'the (expensive) American EV company/yer man Musk'.
We came from a 3 Series (which we still have), and were very close to importing an A6 from the U.K.. I think we saw a Model 3 one day in the flesh and realised, oh yeah, that's the slightly cheaper Tesla and they must be available here now, and when we saw one could be got for €48k, we went to have a look, as going EV was always part of our plan.. we thought we'd have 1 last ICE and then switch to EV in about 6-8 years.... but after sitting in the Model 3, we decided now was the time (we ordered without even taking a test drive, in fact we'd never driven any EV before ordering the Model 3...).

sk8board wrote: »

The M3 itself is very impressive, of course, but not remotely close to €65k impressive.

Indeed it is impressive, and likewise, there was no way we could justify spending €60k on a LR, or €65k on a P..... but €48k for the SR+ definitely piked our interest.....

So by mid January, we barely knew who Tesla were and were all set to buy a 3-4 year old A6, to mid March when we collected our Tesla..

Had the ID.4 been around at that time, I could very well have seen us get one, as I think they are a fantastic looking car, but at the time, the only EV out there comparable to a 3 Series was the Model 3, so thats what we plumped for.....

Either way, I fcuking love seeing so many new EV's on the roads, regardless of who makes them.... growth seems almost exponential at this stage, and certainly thanks in no small part to VW for that, and hopefully many many more get on it, and get desirable and affordable EV's out there..

fricatus

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

Either way, I fcuking love seeing so many new EV's on the roads, regardless of who makes them.... growth seems almost exponential at this stage, and certainly thanks in no small part to VW for that, and hopefully many many more get on it, and get desirable and affordable EV's out there..

This^

Since I got my Ioniq 28 three years ago, I've been noticing other EVs on the road, and I swear in the early days, if I saw one in a day I would have been as excited as if I had seen a rainbow-powered unicorn.

Fast forward to today, and because I'm back commuting, I decided lately to keep an eye out to see if I would see an EV on the way to work or on the way back - and these mornings I'm barely out the driveway and I see one. Maybe that's an exaggeration, but it goes without saying that I will see one at least, and now what I note is how many of a particular car I see (this is between Waterford and Kilkenny BTW). So yesterday I saw three Model 3s, but today, I went one better and among all the Teslas, ID4s, Leafs and Konas, I saw not one, not two, but three separate Kia Soul EVs - all in the same cream/beige colour.

(And no, they were not all the same car - two were going in the other direction, and the other one was in the lane next to me at the first lights coming into Waterford)

sk8board

Same here. I’m in commuterville 15min from the m50 and EVs are now on every street, literally.
The day the first model 3’s landed, my neighbour had one, ditto for the ID3 and more recently there’s loads of ID4’s.
As they say, it’s happening

mfceiling

sk8board wrote: »

true, but the folks who buy a 3/4/5 series, or an A4/5/6 - people with €55-65k to spend on a car, aren’t foolish.
Those cars sell in huge volume each year, pretty much without a single fanboy sale. Tesla have sold a bunch of their Irish M3’s to folks who sat for years on a waiting list. (who remembers ‘marine traffic watch Oct 2019’?)

What’s happening now is that they’re relying on the average Joe car buyer - and they aren’t biting, but are buying something else.
That tells you something about the Tesla product offering is not right.

The M3 itself is very impressive, of course, but not remotely close to €65k impressive.
VW on the other hand have priced the ID4 so well that it’s hard to see why you’d choose it ahead of the similar priced Tiguan.

The product positioning makes the difference - Tesla have positioned the price of the M3 in Ireland against the wrong competitors.

To be honest I'd say Tesla barely give a fiddlers fcuk about Irish sales or pricing in the grand scheme of things. We are a tiny island on the edge of Europe. Our clout is very little.

drumm23

Not using their massive over valuation to buyout Ford or GM (and their established dealer, service and finance networks) will go down in business history as an enormous **** up. (They might still of course, if the dropping market share rattles their timbers ... and they're not busy screwing around buying crypto currency with shareholder funds.)