Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Silentcorner

Boggles wrote: »

The economy is not damaged for infinity.

The unemployment rate is not going to be 10%+ forever.

Those are your claims, not mine.

Now if you have something tangible with a foot hold in reality to back those claims, by all means do.

I'll gladly take a look.

And no, you claiming hairdressers are finished because people are doing their own hair is not proof.

I cannot see how it will ever dip below 10% again, I have explained why I believe that, I don't have a study to back that up because non exists....this has never happened before...take a walk around your nearest street, what is on it, pubs, shops, cafe's, barbers, hair salons? None of them will return to their previous trading levels, some will be down 10%, others more depending on their sector...I haven't even considered the impact of foot fall on these streets and that impact on those premises because that impact if any wouldn't be easy to predict.

Do you think the state of the SME economy in Florida will be healthier than that of California? Or will they be the same?

Despite claiming to study economics you haven't been able to provide a morsel of evidence that the economy will make a full recovery.

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

Does the virus only spread in ones home?

Mainly there as well as in Hospitals and nursing homes.
I won't be in the latter two.

Boggles

Silentcorner wrote: »

I cannot see how it will ever dip below 10% again, I have explained why I believe that, I don't have a study to back that up because non exists....

Despite claiming to study economics you haven't been able to provide a morsel of evidence that the economy will make a full recovery.

So again, you can't back up your outlandish claims but you are having a go at me for not proving links to refute them?

It's not really how debate works.

OwenM

Boggles wrote: »

You want me to link to a study to refute your claim we will never get below 10% unemployment again for ever?

A disingenuous question as an answer certainly isn't what he wants.

Silentcorner

Boggles wrote: »

So again, you can't back up your outlandish claims but you are having a go at me for not proving links to refute them?

It's not really how debate works.

I haven't claimed to study economics that refute your opinion, you did.

Boggles

OwenM wrote: »

A disingenuous question as an answer certainly isn't what he wants.

Well then, you refute his claim that economy is permanently damaged and we will never see lower than 10%+ unemployment in this country forever.

Then refute my claim that Pluto is made up of old socks and shredded newspapers.

Windmill100000

Silentcorner wrote: »

I cannot see how it will ever dip below 10% again, I have explained why I believe that, I don't have a study to back that up because non exists....this has never happened before...take a walk around your nearest street, what is on it, pubs, shops, cafe's, barbers, hair salons? None of them will return to their previous trading levels, some will be down 10%, others more depending on their sector...I haven't even considered the impact of foot fall on these streets and that impact on those premises because that impact if any wouldn't be easy to predict.

Do you think the state of the SME economy in Florida will be healthier than that of California? Or will they be the same?

Despite claiming to study economics you haven't been able to provide a morsel of evidence that the economy will make a full recovery.

Most people want to work to afford a nice lifestyle, nice clothes, holidays, cars, to raise families, buy homes....

Why are you so intent in believing that this drive will not be there again?

average_runner

growleaves wrote: »

You're simply mistaken here. Intense economic activity can only be unleashed by some kind of debt jubilee, otherwise debt servicing will suffocate it. There will be no big boom. What we will have is a continuation and worsening of the stagflation after the European debt crisis of 10 years ago. Then we might get socialism probably, ie the trend of SF victory in February 2020 will return.

Vague history about 'what happened after global crises' isn't relevant. Actual economic conditions are.

I do think employment will recover in time but that by itself doesn't mean boom time.

After the debt crisis, we went into another boom.

growleaves

Waters and O'Doherty's appeal refused

growleaves

average_runner wrote: »

After the debt crisis, we went into another boom.

Wages declined during the period from 2012 onwards.

If you consider it a boom just because employment rose (after emigration) then, by these very low standards, you may be satisfied by the immediate recovery to come.

Boggles

growleaves wrote: »

Waters and O'Doherty's appeal refused

Their proceedings, the judge said, failed to raise issues of substance. They had "chosen rhetoric over substance and fiction and distortion over fact" and failed to meet the threshold of establishing an arguable case, the judge conclude

Sounds familiar.

Silentcorner

Windmill100000 wrote: »

Most people want to work to afford a nice lifestyle, nice clothes, holidays, cars, to raise families, buy homes....

Why are you so intent in believing that this drive will not be there again?

Because it has already happened...the amount of money we are spending online is huge, this is displacement, the habits have changed.

The pubs have a different but as serious situation, will the lad who drank a few pints a few nights a week go back to doing that, certainly some will, a lot won't.

Will the guy who has found a good website to buy clothes from go back to spending his money on the high street with the shop that has looked after him for years, sure, some will, a lot won't...a lot can be 10% or even 5%...each drop in revenue will see a job or two lost.

As I said, that is before you factor in the impact of foot fall on those streets, which I would be reluctant to express an opinion on because that is too unpredictable.

Multipass

Had to go into my nearest town, very depressing, most cafes aren’t even open for takeaways anymore. Most disturbing was seeing a homeless person lying on concrete in a doorway wearing a mask. Really makes you wonder about priorities in society, how skewed and bizarre they’ve become imo.

average_runner

growleaves wrote: »

Wages declined during the period from 2012 onwards.

If you consider it a boom just because employment rose (after emigration) then, by these very low standards, you may be satisfied by the immediate recovery to come.

Was more than just employment. Spending power went up also in the economy.



Alot of the professional industries grew since 2009.



Not everyone benefits from a boom but that is the way the world works.

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

Sounds familiar.

It dos indeed sound like something Staines, Ryan or McConkey would say.

CapriciousOne

Multipass wrote: »

Had to go into my nearest town, very depressing, most cafes aren’t even open for takeaways anymore. Most disturbing was seeing a homeless person lying on concrete in a doorway wearing a mask. Really makes you wonder about priorities in society, how skewed and bizarre they’ve become imo.

I'm confused by this. What is the relevance between the homeless man and mask wearing? Should he not be wearing a mask or prioritising his health? One would assume he chose to wear it.

average_runner

Multipass wrote: »

Had to go into my nearest town, very depressing, most cafes aren’t even open for takeaways anymore. Most disturbing was seeing a homeless person lying on concrete in a doorway wearing a mask. Really makes you wonder about priorities in society, how skewed and bizarre they’ve become imo.

Homeless person in a door way. Was probably always there, just didn't notice as people rushed by!!!

average_runner

Silentcorner wrote: »

Because it has already happened...the amount of money we are spending online is huge, this is displacement, the habits have changed.

The pubs have a different but as serious situation, will the lad who drank a few pints a few nights a week go back to doing that, certainly some will, a lot won't.

Will the guy who has found a good website to buy clothes from go back to spending his money on the high street with the shop that has looked after him for years, sure, some will, a lot won't...a lot can be 10% or even 5%...each drop in revenue will see a job or two lost.

As I said, that is before you factor in the impact of foot fall on those streets, which I would be reluctant to express an opinion on because that is too unpredictable.

Everything you mentioned above was already in motion.


How many does Amazon employ in Ireland and still growing?


Amazon has their own courier business in Ireland and that is creating more jobs.


Pubs were dying before this, our habits are changing and will always change. We see a better way of living that doesn't involve our life in a pub.


The market will determine which pubs will remain open. Why spend 6 euro on a pint when you get a good craft beer in the off license for less, have people over and not worry about stupid drunks causing trouble on a night out!!!

growleaves

average_runner wrote: »

Was more than just employment. Spending power went up also in the economy.



Alot of the professional industries grew since 2009.



Not everyone benefits from a boom but that is the way the world works.

Professional industries grew even as they slashed wages, including for roles like project manager. As price to income ratio for housing grew.

A boom that benefits the very wealthy in the main is Gilded Age economics.

Why should any ordinary person be cheered by a supposed boom which has made them poorer? Alice in Wonderland stuff.

average_runner

growleaves wrote: »

Wages declined during the period from 2012 onwards.

If you consider it a boom just because employment rose (after emigration) then, by these very low standards, you may be satisfied by the immediate recovery to come.

Wages went up in alot of industries, minimum wage went up three times!!

average_runner

growleaves wrote: »

Professional industries grew even as they slashed wages, including for roles like project manager. As price to income ratio for housing grew.

A boom that benefits the very wealthy in the main is Gilded Age economics.

Why should any ordinary person be cheered by a supposed boom which has made them poorer? Alice in Wonderland stuff.

Not sure what industry you are in, but wages did not go down in the industries that were growing and loads were growing.

House prices are lower than they were pre 2008 and wages are higher than pre 2008.

Multipass

average_runner wrote: »

Homeless person in a door way. Was probably always there, just didn't notice as people rushed by!!!

Wearing a mask - most bizarre way of ‘staying safe’

Windmill100000

Silentcorner wrote: »

Because it has already happened...the amount of money we are spending online is huge, this is displacement, the habits have changed.

The pubs have a different but as serious situation, will the lad who drank a few pints a few nights a week go back to doing that, certainly some will, a lot won't.

Will the guy who has found a good website to buy clothes from go back to spending his money on the high street with the shop that has looked after him for years, sure, some will, a lot won't...a lot can be 10% or even 5%...each drop in revenue will see a job or two lost.

As I said, that is before you factor in the impact of foot fall on those streets, which I would be reluctant to express an opinion on because that is too unpredictable.

People are buying online in the absence of anything else. I've done it, we all have. But I miss browsing, feeling fabrics, getting what I want there and then and knowing the size is right. I'd say most people prefer that to online shopping and always will.

But if you want to believe there is only misery ahead, you continue to do so.

W123-80's

walus wrote: »

Pent up demand for what exactly and how is that going to drive the economic recovery?

Haircuts and pints.
They are both top of my list.

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

It dos indeed sound like something Staines, Ryan or McConkey would say.

Who is Ryan?

Has he / she ever claimed the virus doesn't exist whilst simultaneously claiming to have a cure?

Because that is exactly what Ms. O'Doherty tried to argue to the High Court.

Do you think her case should have been heard?

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

Do you think her case should have been heard?

No I don’t because it was based on nonsense.
I would like to see someone else take a sensible case though based on facts and statistics.

Windmill100000

average_runner wrote: »

Everything you mentioned above was already in motion.


How many does Amazon employ in Ireland and still growing?


Amazon has their own courier business in Ireland and that is creating more jobs.


Pubs were dying before this, our habits are changing and will always change. We see a better way of living that doesn't involve our life in a pub.


The market will determine which pubs will remain open. Why spend 6 euro on a pint when you get a good craft beer in the off license for less, have people over and not worry about stupid drunks causing trouble on a night out!!!

Very good point, particularly in light of rural pubs.

This article highlights how changing lifestyles impacted pubs prior to covid. A big point being that we drink 25% less than we did in 2005.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/the-irish-times-view-change-in-lifestyle-behind-pubs-struggle-1.4017132%3fmode=amp

Silentcorner

Windmill100000 wrote: »

People are buying online in the absence of anything else. I've done it, we all have. But I miss browsing, feeling fabrics, getting what I want there and then and knowing the size is right. I'd say most people prefer that to online shopping and always will.

But if you want to believe there is only misery ahead, you continue to do so.

You might miss browsing, some won't, is my point, habits have changed, some will go back, some won't, 10% is a lot to lose to any business and many businesses are looking at losing more than that!

I do love the accusations of doom mongering and misery, it is precisely that that got us here...we reacted to doom mongering...we can't all pretend that all will be well a lot of us have to live in the real world.

OwenM

Boggles wrote: »

Well then, you refute his claim that economy is permanently damaged and we will never see lower than 10%+ unemployment in this country forever.

Then refute my claim that Pluto is made up of old socks and shredded newspapers.

If I had claimed to have studied planetary science I might talk about Pluto, but you claimed to have studied economics but won't enlighten us with any of that?

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

No I don’t because it was based on nonsense.
I would like to see someone else take a sensible case though based on facts and statistics.

Sure there is nothing stopping you taking a case, you seem confident enough, if you win you will in all likelihood not have to pay costs.