Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

paw patrol

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

]

from Kermit.de.frog, who still believes in Fergusons model and MacConkey's 200,000 dead....
I'll worry about more credible and robust criticisms.

Kermit.de.frog

paw patrol wrote: »

from Kermit.de.frog, who still believes in Fergusons model and MacConkey's 200,000 dead....
I'll worry about more credible and robust criticisms.

You stated above that you have belief and you relegated 'intelligence' behind that.

Which is presumably why you showed up to a protest with no mask.

It is the 21st century and, in my view, there is no space anymore for belief over science.

FintanMcluskey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is the 21st century and, in my view, there is no space anymore for belief over science.

The rest of the globe has deemed construction a safe activity, but, Stephen Donnelly, when questioned, said the reason Ireland had not reopened construction is because people will then try to reopen other activities such as golf etc.

Ireland is following belief, not science, don’t kid yourself otherwise

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The rest of the globe has deemed construction a safe activity, but, Stephen Donnelly, when questioned, said the reason Ireland had not reopened construction is because people will then try to reopen other activities such as golf etc.

Ireland is following belief, not science, don’t kid yourself otherwise

And "following the science" is a misleading statement itself.

Science says what the situation is, not what you ought to do.

That choice is a political decision.

normanoffside

Graham wrote: »

Surely you mean intelligence not character.

It certainly wouldn't be very bright to stand too close to someone in the midst of pandemic that spreads by close contact.

Thanks for you comment on my intelligence.
For your information I don't believe there is a major risk in outdoor spread and if I did catch it I don't think it will do me any harm.
For me it's a chance worth taking.

According to this official NHS calculator https://www.qcovid.org/Home/AcademicLicence?licencedUrl=/PatientInformation/PatientInformation

I have a 1 in 43478 chance of Dying if I did contract Covid and a 1 in 2639 chance of being Hospitalised.

Edit: proof it's an official NHS approved tool

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/how-to-find-out-your-risk-when-it-comes-to-coronavirus

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

I have a 1 in 43478 chance of Dying if I did contract Covid and a 1 in 2639 chance of being Hospitalised.

12 months in.

timmyntc

Boggles wrote: »

12 months in.

Not this nonsense again!

There is no way to know the future death rates unless you can see the future!
All we have to go off is current statistics, so they are perfectly valid.

Silentcorner

Boggles wrote: »

Yeah, the idea that barbers and gyms will never recover and the economy is damaged for infinity is not founded in any economics I ever studied.

Pure and utter doom mongering.

There was module exploring what happens to a local economy in the digital age if the Government decides to shut down premises for the bones of a year ya?

Perhaps you can link us to that module or those studies in the economics you studied...I won't hold my breath, you couldn't produce a morsel of science on lock downs when asked earlier either!!!

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

12 months in.

What has that got to do with anything?

My 1 in 43k+ chance of dying is more days than I could possibly ever live.
To have that many days in my life I’d have to live to 130 years old.
I have more chance of dying any day from multiple things than I do of dying if I catch Covid. I don’t see why I should be hiding in a bunker any more. It’s already 12 months in as you say.

Windmill100000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And "following the science" is a misleading statement itself.

Science says what the situation is, not what you ought to do.

That choice is a political decision.

Yep. And as much as people hate it, most are prepared to wait this out. I get it's hard being in the minority. And they are because all this tide is turning talk has changed nothing. Emails are ignored and a much wanted protest ended in mayhem.

timmyntc

Windmill100000 wrote: »

Yep. And as much as people hate it, most are prepared to wait this out. I get it's hard being in the minority. And they are because all this tide is turning talk has changed nothing. Emails are ignored and a much wanted protest ended in mayhem.

And as the protest went ignored, there will be another protest. And another.
(They've already planned one for the 17th IIRC)

As the govt continue to drag their heels and give no details on reopening plan, more and more people will get fed up with them.

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

What has that got to do with anything?

My 1 in 43k+ chance of dying is more days than I could possibly ever live.
To have that many days in my life I’d have to live to 130 years old.
I have more chance of dying any day from multiple things than I do of dying if I catch Covid. I don’t see why I should be hiding in a bunker any more. It’s already 12 months in as you say.

You keep using the word "I" when talking about a dangerous and extremely transmissible disease.

Windmill100000

timmyntc wrote: »

And as the protest went ignored, there will be another protest. And another.
(They've already planned one for the 17th IIRC)

As the govt continue to drag their heels and give no details on reopening plan, more and more people will get fed up with them.

Work away. It's going to have no bearing on opening up. Numbers of cases will decide that and most people know this and will not be attending protests. The violence at the last one will keep people away, too.

growleaves

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And "following the science" is a misleading statement itself.

Science says what the situation is, not what you ought to do.

That choice is a political decision.

Yes and it is doubly misleading since the word science suggests neutrality yet highly damaging and controversial political actions such as lockdowns are NOT neutral.

LuckyLloyd

Silentcorner wrote: »

People are finding their own way of taking care of their hair at home...

This isn't even difficult to understand.

If a barbershop had 100 customers a week last year, the simple cuts are being done at home at this stage.

Gym's are the same, will every one of their customers return when a lot of them have made do with working out from home for the last year.

The interruption has been way too long...this is going to hurt a lot of business in towns and cities all over this country.

Your economic outlook is incredibly negative and doesn't have any good historical basis. Previous global crises have been followed by periods of intense economic activity and revelry. The core elements of our economy (the bits that create wealth that can be spent on hospitality and services) have remained reasonably strong. There is no liquidity crisis in the system, and the financial and banking sector is in a good place.

Some businesses may close, and many people may not get their old job back. But those are narrow short term things to focus on. The big picture is that a period of massive pent up demand is due to be unleashed later this year. BIG ROCKET GO NOW. I see us being back to full employment by late 2022 tbh.

Boggles

Silentcorner wrote: »

There was module exploring what happens to a local economy in the digital age if the Government decides to shut down premises for the bones of a year ya?

Perhaps you can link us to that module or those studies in the economics you studied...I won't hold my breath, you couldn't produce a morsel of science on lock downs when asked earlier either!!!

We are not going to have 10%+ unemployment forever.

It's Absolute nonsense based on nothing more than fear and doom mongering.

walus

normanoffside wrote: »

...
I have a 1 in 43478 chance of Dying if I did contract Covid and a 1 in 2639 chance of being Hospitalised.

Edit: proof it's an official NHS approved tool

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/how-to-find-out-your-risk-when-it-comes-to-coronavirus

And if you were living in US, the odds of you dying in a car crash would be 1 in 114. Just to put things into context...

timmyntc

Boggles wrote: »

We are not going to have 10%+ unemployment forever.

It's Absolute nonsense based on nothing more than fear and doom mongering.

Of course not - but just because eventually things will get better, that hardly justifies the economic car crash coming down the line?
People will default on mortgages, lose businesses, hospitality may take years to recover to pre-covid levels of activity, in meantime many will go under.
This all has knock-on effects across the economy, its not good.

And who do you think will have to foot the bill for this?

Silentcorner

Boggles wrote: »

We are not going to have 10%+ unemployment forever.

It's Absolute nonsense based on nothing more than fear and doom mongering.

So no sign of any semblance of economic theory or studies then that you have claimed...didn't think so.

growleaves

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Your economic outlook is incredibly negative and doesn't have any good historical basis. Previous global crises have been followed by periods of intense economic activity and revelry. The core elements of our economy (the bits that create wealth that can be spent on hospitality and services) have remained reasonably strong. There is no liquidity crisis in the system, and the financial and banking sector is in a good place.

Some businesses may close, and many people may not get their old job back. But those are narrow short term things to focus on. The big picture is that a period of massive pent up demand is due to be unleashed later this year. BIG ROCKET GO NOW. I see us being back to full employment by late 2022 tbh.

You're simply mistaken here. Intense economic activity can only be unleashed by some kind of debt jubilee, otherwise debt servicing will suffocate it. There will be no big boom. What we will have is a continuation and worsening of the stagflation after the European debt crisis of 10 years ago. Then we might get socialism probably, ie the trend of SF victory in February 2020 will return.

Vague history about 'what happened after global crises' isn't relevant. Actual economic conditions are.

I do think employment will recover in time but that by itself doesn't mean boom time.

Silentcorner

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Your economic outlook is incredibly negative and doesn't have any good historical basis. Previous global crises have been followed by periods of intense economic activity and revelry. The core elements of our economy (the bits that create wealth that can be spent on hospitality and services) have remained reasonably strong. There is no liquidity crisis in the system, and the financial and banking sector is in a good place.

Some businesses may close, and many people may not get their old job back. But those are narrow short term things to focus on. The big picture is that a period of massive pent up demand is due to be unleashed later this year. BIG ROCKET GO NOW. I see us being back to full employment by late 2022 tbh.

Of course there is no historical basis...this has never happened on this scale at a point in time where you don't have to leave your home to buy the things you used to get locally....or where all social activity has been halted.

Ignoring reality is not good for anyone, by the way, I operate in the sphere that I am referring to so I do have an idea what I am talking about.

I do recognize that there will be some sectors who will boom (access to stock will be a huge issue for those guys bear in mind).

Small businesses spend years building up loyal customer bases, it is hard work and what we have done is put a freeze on all those small businesses in the belief that they will continue where they left off, when that is simply an infantile thought process....

We are in unchartered waters.

LuckyLloyd

Outright doom mongering with no specifics from you both.

It's time to be positive lads. Vaccination programme is up and running; data on vaccines is really promising. There is no liquidity crisis and a huge amount of pent up demand. If the vaccines continue to be as successful as early data indicates, consumer confidence will be able to return in full this year. Good times are coming.

Boggles

Silentcorner wrote: »

So no sign of any semblance of economic theory or studies then that you have claimed...didn't think so.

You want me to link to a study to refute your claim we will never get below 10% unemployment again for ever?

growleaves

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Outright doom mongering with no specifics from you both.

It's time to be positive lads. Vaccination programme is up and running; data on vaccines is really promising. There is no liquidity crisis and a huge amount of pent up demand. If the vaccines continue to be as successful as early data indicates, consumer confidence will be able to return in full this year. Good times are coming.

The absence of a liquidity crisis is not the only factor here.

I'm on my phone and out and about now, ill go into more detailed arguments in a later post.

walus

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Outright doom mongering with no specifics from you both.

It's time to be positive lads. Vaccination programme is up and running; data on vaccines is really promising. There is no liquidity crisis and a huge amount of pent up demand. If the vaccines continue to be as successful as early data indicates, consumer confidence will be able to return in full this year. Good times are coming.

Pent up demand for what exactly and how is that going to drive the economic recovery?

Silentcorner

Boggles wrote: »

Yeah, the idea that barbers and gyms will never recover and the economy is damaged for infinity is not founded in any economics I ever studied.

Pure and utter doom mongering.

Boggles wrote: »

You want me to link to a study to refute your claim we will never get below 10% unemployment again for ever?

No, provide a link to any study that you claim exists, you claimed to study economics...so back it up!

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

You keep using the word "I" when talking about a dangerous and extremely transmissible disease.

That’s right Boggles. I am not in touch with anyone at any risk. I live on my own. I’ve already done my own risk assessment both of danger to myself and others.
I see you just like to assume that people like me haven’t done that.

323

normanoffside wrote: »

Thanks for you comment on my intelligence.
For your information I don't believe there is a major risk in outdoor spread and if I did catch it I don't think it will do me any harm.
For me it's a chance worth taking.

According to this official NHS calculator https://www.qcovid.org/Home/AcademicLicence?licencedUrl=/PatientInformation/PatientInformation

I have a 1 in 43478 chance of Dying if I did contract Covid and a 1 in 2639 chance of being Hospitalised.

Edit: proof it's an official NHS approved tool

These numbers do seem to make all that's going on at the moment look like a total scam.


Surprised that calculator doesn't consider blood group.

Boggles

Silentcorner wrote: »

No, provide a link to any study that you claim exists, you claimed to study economics...so back it up!

The economy is not damaged for infinity.

The unemployment rate is not going to be 10%+ forever.

Those are your claims, not mine.

Now if you have something tangible with a foot hold in reality to back those claims, by all means do.

I'll gladly take a look.

And no, you claiming hairdressers are finished because people are doing their own hair is not proof.

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

That’s right Boggles. I am not in touch with anyone at any risk. I live on my own. I’ve already done my own risk assessment both of danger to myself and others.
I see you just like to assume that people like me haven’t done that.

Does the virus only spread in ones home?