UK/Ireland Zero Covid Area

CorkRed93

corcaigh07 wrote: »

It actually does need to be near perfect if you want the benefits of zero Covid like Australia and NZ. Even at level 5, there is too much activity in and out of Ireland to achieve it. That's ignoring the obvious problems having a land border with the UK and being Europeans.

its entirely possible once there is political will for it. people labelled peace in NI, mcguinness + paisley sharing power as impossible. Obviously things will need to be tweaked and changed to fit our circumstances but constantly just fobbing suggestions off as "impossible" when we are told the next 5 months are being written off is laughable at this stage. Try something new TD's its what you are paid for!

quokula

Are there any actual stats about what effect closing the airports would have? I would imagine a tiny fraction of one percent of current infections are coming from there given that the virus is widespread in the community and there is practically no travel occurring anyway other than essential travel that can't be curtailed without leading to shortages of vital supplies.

If it was a year ago, and we were an isolated country in the middle of the Pacific, and we didn't have a land border with Northern Ireland, then sure, it would probably make a big difference. But now? None at all. There's probably a hundred other things you could close first that would have a bigger impact on infection levels.

quokula

quokula wrote: »

Are there any actual stats about what effect closing the airports would have? I would imagine a tiny fraction of one percent of current infections are coming from there given that the virus is widespread in the community and there is practically no travel occurring anyway other than essential travel that can't be curtailed without leading to shortages of vital supplies.

If it was a year ago, and we were an isolated country in the middle of the Pacific, and we didn't have a land border with Northern Ireland, then sure, it would probably make a big difference. But now? None at all. There's probably a hundred other things you could close first that would have a bigger impact on infection levels.

Your looking in the short term. Weve done 3 lockdowns and heavy restrictions. A medium term solution is zero covid until vaccinations treatments etc come to aid us better. Airlines are f***** under zero covid but they f***** now anyway. Zero covid is tough but so is being told to stay in your house indefinitely. Zero covid is least worst outcome for all under every metric.

Gradius

quokula wrote: »

Are there any actual stats about what effect closing the airports would have? I would imagine a tiny fraction of one percent of current infections are coming from there given that the virus is widespread in the community and there is practically no travel occurring anyway other than essential travel that can't be curtailed without leading to shortages of vital supplies.

If it was a year ago, and we were an isolated country in the middle of the Pacific, and we didn't have a land border with Northern Ireland, then sure, it would probably make a big difference. But now? None at all. There's probably a hundred other things you could close first that would have a bigger impact on infection levels.

There won't be any stats because the thing is essentially unregulated.

Who knows who's coming from where, and then they're simply "asked" to self isolate? As if a bloke that's willing to forsake all safety to go on holidays is going to be trustworthy How many people will they infect?

Nobody knows because it's a free-for all, at least up until now.

PhoneMain

CorkRed93 wrote: »

its entirely possible once there is political will for it. people labelled peace in NI, mcguinness + paisley sharing power as impossible. Obviously things will need to be tweaked and changed to fit our circumstances but constantly just fobbing suggestions off as "impossible" when we are told the next 5 months are being written off is laughable at this stage. Try something new TD's its what you are paid for!

I'd like to give them the benefit of the doubt and say that these things are being explored through back door channels to see what the appetite is. these sort of channels are going on all the time. maybe the unionists have made it clear that its a non runner.

meeeeh

CorkRed93 wrote: »

its entirely possible once there is political will for it. people labelled peace in NI, mcguinness + paisley sharing power as impossible. Obviously things will need to be tweaked and changed to fit our circumstances but constantly just fobbing suggestions off as "impossible" when we are told the next 5 months are being written off is laughable at this stage. Try something new TD's its what you are paid for!

Then I would label them unrealistic. DUP constantly vote with Covid Loony Tory Group against Covid measures Johnson's government is trying to implement. On top of that Republic of Ireland patrolling border suits their argument against Irish Protocol in four years time.

Unless numbers in NI get so bad their system completely collapses (the numbers are bad but getting better) there are no negatives from their perspective for the current stance. Yes people will die because of that but that never overly bothered either them or SF as long as it is for the cause.

Itsaduck1

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

That's the elephant in the room alright, I was always curious why China and the Pacific countries went for Covid eradication ( zero covid ) vs living with Covid that the West tried

Can see now they made the correct choice and living with Covid doesn't work and that could even be with a vaccine if the rumours are true.

How hard could Zero Covid be anyway? If we get cases down to single digits, track and trace those new cases, close border, hotel quarantine.

It's 2021, we are supposed to have cars that can drive themselves and be capable of sending humans to the moon.

We can't keep COVID out of care homes, which should be easy to manage places.

meeeeh

Deleted User wrote: »

We can't keep COVID out of care homes, which should be easy to manage places.

They are not. Not just in Ireland but everywhere. They are perfect breading ground for Covid.

quokula

Deleted User wrote: »

Your looking in the short term. Weve done 3 lockdowns and heavy restrictions. A medium term solution is zero covid until vaccinations treatments etc come to aid us better. Airlines are f***** under zero covid but they f***** now anyway. Zero covid is tough but so is being told to stay in your house indefinitely. Zero covid is least worst outcome for all under every metric.

If you close the airports today, and leave everything else as is, it will have pretty much no impact whatsoever until long after everyone has been vaccinated.

You'd achieve zero covid faster by shutting down takeaways and hardware stores.

Shutting airports is a valid strategy for after you've got to zero covid, and so has the country you have a land border with. It's a meaningless gesture when the virus is already widespread in the community, and there is next to no travel happening anyway.

Cerveza

Takeaways and off licences are essential.

meeeeh

quokula wrote: »

Shutting airports is a valid strategy for after you've got to zero covid, and so has the country you have a land border with. It's a meaningless gesture when the virus is already widespread in the community, and there is next to no travel happening anyway.

That's it and even then if you have a choice between flying to Belfast and driving (travelling) a bit longer to where you need to go or flying to Dublin and ending in two week quarantine, where would you fly to?

I think extra measures are very much needed, flights from certain countries should be limited and people should be asked to quarantine and checked on. Just let's not fool ourselves that will be enough.

spaceHopper

begbysback wrote: »

There is no such thing as zero covid, New Zealand is in Alice in wonderland, only permanently lockdown would achieve zero, let’s see what happens when prime minister explains that to the kiwis.

RTE interviewed an Irish doctor working in pubic health in Oz, they have had local outbreaks mostly caused by leakage from hotels they have the resources to squash them quickly and he personally hasn't been locked down since April. I've cousins in Oz and friends in NZ they are living NORMAL lives from what I can see them posting of FB.

It can be done and it would cost a lot less than having a large part of the country living on social welfare, and all the mental health problems.

Also forget about an easy time after this, we are racing up national and personal debut, taxes will go up an people won't have much free cash to spend.

I'd love to see travel restrictions and inforced quarantine but given how high our cases are right now it's a local problem.

firemansam4

There are only 2 possible ways we can even start to attempt a zero Covid plan in Ireland.

One is as the op suggests that we attempt it as a whole UK and Ireland Covid free zone. This is only going to be possible if we get full cooperation from the UK on.
Now as of yet I have seen nothing that would suggest the UK would go anywhere near this right now, maybe in the future if the vaccination program fails due to the new variants.

The other option which IMO is a complete non-runner is to close off and seal the border completely using the army maybe.
We will immediately have major food supply issues with food items and other essential goods. Many essential businesses will simply just have to shut. Many medical and front line staff who come to work from across the border will now be lost.
This is just a fraction of the problems we would be left with, not to mention the political ramifications of shutting the border, after we spent the last few years agreeing an international agreement on keeping it open after Brexit.

I really don't think some people realise the ramifications of completely shutting the border would have.
To be fair the op has already stated himself option 2 would not work.

corcaigh07

firemansam4 wrote: »

There are only 2 possible ways we can even start to attempt a zero Covid plan in Ireland.

One is as the op suggests that we attempt it as a whole UK and Ireland Covid free zone. This is only going to be possible if we get full cooperation from the UK on.
Now as of yet I have seen nothing that would suggest the UK would go anywhere near this right now, maybe in the future if the vaccination program fails due to the new variants.

The other option which IMO is a complete non-runner is to close off and seal the border completely using the army maybe.
We will immediately have major food supply issues with food items and other essential goods. Many essential businesses will simply just have to shut. Many medical and front line staff who come to work from across the border will now be lost.
This is just a fraction of the problems we would be left with, not to mention the political ramifications of shutting the border, after we spent the last few years agreeing an international agreement on keeping it open after Brexit.

I really don't think some people realise the ramifications of completely shutting the border would have.
To be fair the op has already stated himself option 2 would not work.

Spot on, option 1 is the only remotely realistic option and that's before you even consider dealing with the EU and Ursula.

CorkRed93

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29U277#click=https://t.co/W3a3NKMVjC

Ball is in governments court now...

CorkRed93

CorkRed93 wrote: »

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29U277#click=https://t.co/W3a3NKMVjC

Ball is in governments court now...

The government can longer blame northern ireland.

It needs to follow suit.

If ireland reciprocated this sorry mess of being confined to ones home could be over by easter with near normality other than no international travel. I think most people could accept that trade off. I have two siblings in perth and all is well there other than no travel.

gally74

I reckon zero covid is the aim jow, people have had enough.....

It's amazing what home schooling has brought opinion tooo

gally74

gally74 wrote: »

I reckon zero covid is the aim jow, people have had enough.....

It's amazing what home schooling has brought opinion tooo

Theres no "living with covid". It doesnt stay constant at a few hundred a day and little mortality with people hopping on planes to portugal on a whim and no restrictions. Every country/region will now have to go zero covid until we get a proper handle on this (which we will). In the meantime people have to live a relatively normal life. Zero covid gives you that until the science catches up...

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Given reports this astra vaccine isnt effective or to be licenced for us on the most vunerable people.



Surely its time to get serious about this,instead of lazy assumptions surronding the border

The game is up for the right wing covid deniers. Its just a flu bro. The left have been all over zero covid for months. Its also a pity in UK/US you had fairly right wing leaders at start of pandemic. Trump is now gone and Boris does now seem to be listening. Maybe he has mellowed into a paternalistic branch of conservatism. Or 100k of his voters sadly passed away.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The game is up for the right wing covid deniers. Its just a flu bro. The left have been all over zero covid for months. Its also a pity in UK/US you had fairly right wing leaders at start of pandemic. Trump is now gone and Boris does now seem to be listening. Maybe he has mellowed into a paternalistic branch of conservatism.

i dont think this is a left/right issue tbh


It is largly just a flu/no symthoms for vast majority(we're missing upto 60% cases here right now)...the minority who do get sick,can get v.sick....quickly killing those with poor immune systems,

25% death rate among kidney transplants,is a horriffic death toll for those,who would otberwise be fine



Its just its so spreadable,its impossible to keep it away from vunerabl,and that those who do get sick can overwhelm the health service in relatively short space of time and can take ages to recover

meeeeh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The game is up for the right wing covid deniers. Its just a flu bro. The left have been all over zero covid for months. Its also a pity in UK/US you had fairly right wing leaders at start of pandemic. Trump is now gone and Boris does now seem to be listening. Maybe he has mellowed into a paternalistic branch of conservatism.

There are plenty Covid deniers among far left too. (Far left and far right have much more in common with each other than with the middle). The only reason you are not talking about crazy left wing leaders is because their countries are bankrupt enough they don't even matter anymore.

That still doesn't resolve the movement of people we signed up to as members of EU despite each country having different Covid policies. You can control certain aspects but not enough to completely stop transmission.

Gradius

Deleted User wrote: »

The game is up for the right wing covid deniers. Its just a flu bro. The left have been all over zero covid for months. Its also a pity in UK/US you had fairly right wing leaders at start of pandemic. Trump is now gone and Boris does now seem to be listening. Maybe he has mellowed into a paternalistic branch of conservatism. Or 100k of his voters sadly passed away.

Those on the right that believe this is all a fat load of nothing are nutters.

However, it is undoubtedly the left mindset that has originated this pandemic, from globalism and no borders to migration and anti-nationalism.

Now they're all learning about both the biological and societal construct of "why country's exist".

Plenty of blame to go around, and plenty of arseholes to put it on.

Sanjuro

meeeeh wrote: »

There are plenty Covid deniers among far left too. (Far left and far right have much more in common with each other than with the middle). The only reason you are not talking about crazy left wing leaders is because their countries are bankrupt enough they don't even matter anymore.

That still doesn't resolve the movement of people we signed up to as members of EU despite each country having different Covid policies. You can control certain aspects but not enough to completely stop transmission.

Absolutely staggering amount of stupidity in this post.

PhoneMain

PhoneMain wrote: »

Not forgetting the population of the UK being 3 times that of Australia. The population density of Austraia is also 3 per square km. For the UK its 275. It is a lot harder to maintain low rates of community transmission with those sort figures

Population density in Sydney and Melbourne, not the entire continent is what you should be comparing. Most Australians live in cities on the coast

ceadaoin. wrote: »

New Zealand and Australia can never reopen their borders normally because covid cases will flood in. Their tourism industries are destroyed. There are people being prevented from seeing their loved ones abroad for years, families separated because some dont have permanent status. I dont think that is a success. They have backed themselves in a corner now though and have to stay with it.

More Australians holiday overseas than foreigners holiday in Australia. Everything has been booked out, places like the great ocean road are inundated.

Personally I`m loving having a normal life the past year, I skype home and see lockdown lockdown lockdown.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/holidays-booked-out-other-destinations-you-should-visit-australi/12825612

Happydays2020

What do we need to do for zero Covid at this point in time?

So we have mandatory quarantine.... are we at level 5 until we have no cases?

Then we move off level 5 but essentially all travel is banned?

What is the expected timeframe for level 5? 3,4,5,6, 7 months?

But then everything can open up internally but we are closed to any travel out and in?

But what if the U.K. decide on a whim that they open up again (they are not exactly rationale right now)?

Gradius

Happydays2020 wrote: »

What do we need to do for zero Covid at this point in time?

So we have mandatory quarantine.... are we at level 5 until we have no cases?

Then we move off level 5 but essentially all travel is banned?

What is the expected timeframe for level 5? 3,4,5,6, 7 months?

But then everything can open up internally but we are closed to any travel out and in?

But what if the U.K. decide on a whim that they open up again (they are not exactly rationale right now)?

12 months.

Go and hunt the virus until it's exterminated. Nobody gets in.

I was saying this 8 months ago and was met with derision and all the "it's impossible", "can't be done", "what's the point" etc.

Looking pretty goddamned likely now. if we had done this 8 months ago we'd have only 4 months to wait out now. Perhaps already achieved. It's funny how the impossible gradually becomes possible

Happydays2020

Happydays2020 wrote: »

What do we need to do for zero Covid at this point in time?

So we have mandatory quarantine.... are we at level 5 until we have no cases?

Then we move off level 5 but essentially all travel is banned?

What is the expected timeframe for level 5? 3,4,5,6, 7 months?

But then everything can open up internally but we are closed to any travel out and in?

But what if the U.K. decide on a whim that they open up again (they are not exactly rationale right now)?

It took Melbourne something like 4 months, this says 112 days: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-54686812

new strains could make it longer? Melbourne is a big, dense city though....so its definitely doable.

meeeeh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Belgium has stopped non-essential travel

You can cut community transmission to zero,and it will squash the virus.....we literally had it down to single digits last summer (NZ is testing over 100 people to identify the source of one case of community transmission)


Free travel and keeping the EU happy,isnt worth the risk of rampant commuinity spread to our old and sick imo

Stopping non essential travel is not the same to successfully hermetically closing country.

I'm from a country who had it to a zero for a month and then summer started. (Right wing prime minister too, left were protesting against masks). Countries with no cases were not uncommon last year in Europe, Ireland was nowhere near the best in class.

I'm not Covid denier, I just don't believe liberal western open society who relies on exports and on cheap foreign labour (often in food production) will ever be able to completely seal the borders. That's without those who wish to travel home to see the family or in more likely dangerous cases to a funeral of a relative.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Given reports this astra vaccine isnt effective or to be licenced for us on the most vunerable people.



Surely its time to get serious about this,instead of lazy assumptions surronding the border

Here here. Im all for vaccines and will take one when available but this whole policy of vaccinations with covid rampant is bonkers. Things will go wrong in such a scenario due to extreme pressures. Austrailia sitting backing in a more measured way for solution later in year. Seems a whole lot more sensible.

meeeeh

meeeeh wrote: »

Stopping non essential travel is not the same to successfully hermetically closing country.

I'm from a country who had it to a zero for a month and then summer started. (Right wing prime minister too, left were protesting against masks). Countries with no cases were not uncommon last year in Europe, Ireland was nowhere near the best in class.

I'm not Covid denier, I just don't believe liberal western open society who relies on exports and on cheap foreign labour (often in food production) will ever be able to completely seal the borders. That's without those who wish to travel home to see the family or in more likely dangerous cases to a funeral of a relative.

let them travel home,but quarantine for 14 days upon returning/arriving here....enact laws to keep their jobs safe and pay the PUP if necessary


Roll on/roll off for lorries,who's drivers are vaccinated,quarantine for those who are not.....theres no sense in repeating same mistakes as last summer,or xmas...

Zero commuinity transmission is only realistic way out of this.....getting the numbers down,gives our track and trace a chance to be actually succesful to catch all commuinty transmission.......in line with rising vaccinations should make it easier and easier longer it geos on (isreal cases have collasped as its vaccination effort takes effect)