Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120380964#Comment_120380964

Now we're hitting the nail on the head, the existence of NI from it's inception has always been about your place in the union to the detriment of everything else, and it's never been anything other than a disaster, the worst of which has been a waste of lives.

The fear for unionists now is that accepting that they are now the minority in a power-sharing parliament is the first step to a UI, whereas if they actually engaged in it and promoted that NI could stand on it's own two feet a UI would never happen. It would be difficult for most nationalists to agree with SF commemorating murderers whilst engaged in Government, but until unionism realises that they'd be in a far superior position to call it out whilst engaging in Stormont rather than holding to 'no Stormont=direct rule=position in union safe', which seems to be the approach, the status quo will continue.

I'm no SF supporter btw, i think they are a bunch of gangsters, unfortunately they'll probably need to be in Government both north and south to be exposed as such.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120381284#Comment_120381284

It’s difficult to take a post seriously that begins “the existence of NI from it's inception has always been about your place in the union to the detriment of everything else, and it's never been anything other than a disaster”. Indeed it reminds me of the entire fanciful thread claiming the same.

this is just blown out of the water by the FACT that increasing number of nationalist voters say they would vote to not join a UI. If your claim had any credence, then the huge demographic changes of the population and the influx of newcomers would mean support to join your wonderful roi would be rocketing - but it’s not. As they say here, people know which side their bread is buttered on.

we can discuss lots and disagree about lots, but this is a non argument. It’s a simple equation.

1) all polls say support for a United ireland is either static or decreasing year on year for decades

2) numbers of pul background by percentage have been dropping year on year for decades

3) now get your calculator out and I think you will conclude that increasing numbers of cnr background believe OWC is not a failure.

I know that’s hard to swallow but it seems pretty simple to me

rock22

One of the largest parties in boycotting the NI parliament over a row with Westminster. There is a refusal to accept the democratic will of the people of NI who voted in the last elections. There is an unwillingness to accept the will of the people of NI who voted in the Brexit referendum.

And yet you can say. "that increasing numbers of cnr(sic) background believe OWC is not a failure."

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120382067#Comment_120382067

He is patently wrong by any metric.

Can NI function? = No.

What is the definition of 'failure'? = something that cannot function.

If the DUP succeed what is needed is a vote ion the north. That is what the Irish government should be calling for as part of their duty under the GFA. The majority are being denied their wishes by a belligerent minority with zero solutions to offer.

moon2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120382041#Comment_120382041

It's pretty trivial to evidence that support for a UI has been growing for years. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland

It's pretty clear that your problem is simply that you *really wish* this were not the case. You wish you were in a world where the concept of a UI were decreasing in support for decades.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120382041#Comment_120382041

The biggest change of demographic has been in voters who are ambiguous on Unification, Downcow. The ever increasing middle-ground we regularly talk about.

You're presenting your point in a pretty inaccurate manner; support for Unification has increased over time. It is worth pointing out that this increase does not correlate directly with the increased vote for Nationalist leaning parties of course.

What you fail to note is that in that time, explicit support for remaining part of your Union has very substantially decreased.

We won't go down the rabbit hole back and forth about whether a poll for Unification is likely to pass, I'm just pointing out that it is incredibly disingenuous of you to point out falling support for Unification (which absolutely isn't the long term trend) while ignoring the much larger plummet in support for remaining part of your Union.

The fact that most arguments in favour of remaining part of the Union are scare stories about how much the UK pays for NI is testament to what a balls has been made of the place that was once the industrial centre of Ireland. 'We've f*cked it up so badly over the last hundred years that Ireland can't afford to take us in' isn't quite as powerful a boast on the success of NI as you suggest.

Peregrinus

This isn't really true, though. It's a claim widely repeated on the unionist/loyalist twittersphere, but actual hard facts to support it are not often cited. And we can guess the reason for that.

The Wikipedia page on "United Ireland" has a handy tracker of opinion polling on this issue over the past 10 years. It need to be treated with a degree of caution since, in fact, in the first few years of the period there were relatively few polls on the question — it has been much more intensively polled since 2016 (and we know why). But the chart does show an upward trend in favour of a United Ireland from 17% in 2013 to 42% in May 2017. Thereafter the trend bounces around quite a lot (I suspect this is partly an artefact of the question being differently phrased in different polls) but looking at it as a whole there is probably as much up as down in the five years since 2018. In the most recent three polls the figures in favour of a United Ireland are 34%, 41%, 27%.

Support for the union displays, as you would expect, the converse trend - 67% in 2013; 48%, 48%, 50% in the three most recent polls.

So, it's certainly wrong to say that "all polls say support for a United Ireland is either static or decreasing year on year for decades". On the basis of these figures, for the past decade they have in fact shown it to be static or increasing.

You say that people "know which side their bread is buttered on", suggesting that people vote on the basis of economic interest rather than identity. This may be so —certainly it would explain why the sharp rise in support for a united Ireland coincides with the Brexit vote.

On the question of national identity, in the 2011 census, 48.4% of the NI population claimed a British identity (whether alone or in combination with other identities). In the 2021 census, that had fallen to 40.7%. The corresponding figures for an Irish identity: 2011 — 28.4%; 2021 — 32.8%. That suggests that the future of the union depends more and more on securing the support of people who do not consider themselves British, and the decline in support for the union over the past 10 years is probably accounted for to a large extent by the failure of unionism to win that support.

All of which points to the profound stupidity of unionists who make their support for the NI institutions conditional on having their British identity affirmed in an way that that Irish or other identities are not affirmed. The last thing you want to do is to present the union as something which exists, or should exist, to affirm British identity because, if the union is to survive, it needs to appeal to people who don't want to have their British identity affirmed, because they don't have a British identity in the first place.

If people are going to vote according to how their bread is buttered, then union supporters want NI to be as prosperous as possible, within a UK which ideally is also prosperous as possible. That would lead a unionist supporter to (a) oppose Brexit, and (b) if Brexit is nevertheless to be imposed on NI against its will, support the Protocol. The DUP, with their unerring instinct for self-harm, take precisely the opposite stance on both counts.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120382161#Comment_120382161

It's basically more of the triumphalism talked about earlier.

And it is hollow triumphalism too.

It's like buying a car because it has been recently polished but not looking under the bonnet.

The lie is given to the triumphalism is given by the fact that Unionism would run a mile from a Border Poll atm just as they would run a mile from asking the 'people' for their opinion of the Protocol, Brexit or the WF.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120382222#Comment_120382222

Not triumphalist. Of course we can all get stats to spin. I’m not going searching as my post was simply reacting to another of the many telling my country is failed and should be absorbed by its neighbour to fix it.

I have demonstrated several times that there is approx 32% of ni population who want a Ui in short term. That’s not a kick in the ass away from the 1/3 we were told wanted Ui in 1921. But hey, let’s take the most optimistic isolated polls that are into the 40s, still not a kick in the ass from 100 years ago.

the last poll I posted also demonstrated that 75% of the middle ground and non voters will not vote for a Ui.

but what I will readily admit is that unionists need to be careful not to alienate the growin number of cnr who are content in this non-failed statelet.

I spoke to several Catholics who were ashamed of the sectarianism on display this st pats day. So seems both sides need to reign in their extremes

schmoo2k

IMO what will end up happening is that NI will end up independant and join the EU as a full member (like Scotland is trying to do).

In that scenario I would assume Unionists would be unhappy (as not being part of the union).

I would also assume that nationalists would be unhappy (as not being part of a united Ireland).

But the majority of folks (the ones who don't hold an extreme position) will be happy as it would finally put some stability in place and result in a better standard of living and a better future etc.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384640#Comment_120384640

Your 'stats' have been roundly dismissed here and you have been unable to challenge them.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384679#Comment_120384679

How would a place that has proven conclusively over 100 years that it cannot govern itself and requires the supervision of two governments just to fuinction, become 'stable' as an independent entity?

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384679#Comment_120384679

NI has very little chance of surviving as an independent country, too small, would be too dependent on services and industry the UK would pull out or potential that Ireland would not be putting. You would also have half the people in the place arguing with each other to rejoin the UK or join Ireland, it would be a mess.

reslfj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384679#Comment_120384679

The future options for NI has already been agreed within the GFA. It can continue as part of the UK now with the NIP/WF, unless and until a border poll decides for a UI.

I hope personally, a border poll will not be called until secularism and demographics have created a larger and clearly qualified majority for a UI.

But the DUP repeated 'all in' with words, words, words and nothing but a 2 and a 7 card, followed by the inevitable total loss, can make it very difficult for HMG to avoid a too early border poll.

Lars 😀

Pete_Cavan

I said before that the DUP have over-played their hand but I really think they have pushed too far this time, to the extent that they are pushing the British public anyway. I'm seeing a backlash against them online, particularly from people in Britain. They have had enough of Brexit and want to move on but NI is preventing that. Britain has a deal they are happy with, the only fly in the ointment is NI.

I think the success of the Irish rugby team is showing people that the whole island is stronger together. Again online it is clearly being celebrated as an all island achievement. The recognition of recent movies have received has also come with a lot of Irish, as in whole island messaging. I think culturally the border has never been less relevant and this will have an impact on younger generations.

The DUP are unwittingly showing that NI doesn't have a future in its current state and there are few viable alalternatives (probably none which the DUP would find acceptable). Bit of a perfect storm brewing at present.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120385172#Comment_120385172

I agree.

The conflict/war was partition coming home to roost for us.

Not being able to Brexit is partition coming home to roost for the British.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384990#Comment_120384990

The gfa can be changed with the will of the people. Indeed alliance etc want it changed now, without the will of the people. Nothing is written in stone

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384679#Comment_120384679

Well not necessarily. The union belongs to all four countries. If England left the union, that wouldn’t stop it being the union. So your point is we could have the United Kingdom of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Unlikely I think. But as economically viable as the United Kingdom of Ireland and Northern Ireland

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384640#Comment_120384640

I wasn't advocating that it should be 'absorbed' at all Downcow. My point is that the DUP basically pinning it's whole political policy on NI remaining 'British', ie what goes for the UK goes for NI without any differentiation, is eventually going to dwindle it's support base to nothing as moderate unionism moves more to a position of what's wrong with having the best of both worlds.

It's no surprise that there's been a move to Alliance, they don't support a UI, but instead want to promote NI first and foremost, where people are free to identify as whatever nationality they wish, but want NI to prosper. I think this is the best future for all involved.

I agree that certainly both extremes need to diminish, sticking ads in American newspapers (though this is probably more to do with fundraising in truth), is antagonistic and disrespectful to a large proportion of their own electorate.

downcow

On the point of the op question. I am convinced it will be a long time before we see stormont back, if ever.

WM will be implemented anyhow I believe.

will there be violence kicking off this summer. I think 50:50

if it kicks off will it escalate out of control I think 50:50

thats 75:25. Just my hunch from listening

will republicans react. I couldn’t even guess. No idea

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120385378#Comment_120385378

I think sf dup and alliance all increased in the poll out yesterday. The dup increased the most I think which is not surprising given uup are saying they will go back into stormont. SDLP I think was hurt again

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120385530#Comment_120385530

And you'd support the party which advocates abstinence instead of working for the betterment of NI?

Itssoeasy

Sorry if this was mentioned already but I found the UUP statement on their position on the Windsor framework to be very interesting, and welcomed. They say there are still issues around it, but use the phrase “stepping stone” which sound positive. The statement is a clear attempt to put clear water between the DUP and themselves, which is a smart move.

Leroy42

Sunak must believe that despite the DUP not voting for this deal he can get it through.

The fact he didn't even explain the deal as it was being negotiated, or seemingly take on board any of their specific issues, would lead me to believe he doesn't see them as a major problem for him, at least not before the next election.

Clearly the sands have shifted on Brexit in England. This deal was welcomed by many, I suspect mainly because it represented a finality. The actual detail wasn't important. It does nothing for GB and nothing for the economy.

But it realigned the relationship with both the EU and, importantly, the US.

Faced with that, the DUP face into having to not only vote against it. But what do they do if the HoC votes for it? How can they claim to be unionist yet refuse to accept the will of the union?

They claim that although NI voted to remain that since the UK voted to leave then NI must accept the will of the union.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120385785#Comment_120385785

The honourable member is trying to apply logical thinking to the DUP, which is a fruitless task.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120385785#Comment_120385785

It's not about the DUP or Ireland for Sunak, he is trying to neutralise the ERG.

Next move will be the DUP's

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120385871#Comment_120385871

Exactly. The sands have shifted. The DUP no longer have the sway they once enjoyed and the ERG are no longer as powerful as they were.

Faced with election wipeout the Tories are looking after themselves and getting Brexit out of the way is the best policy

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120385871#Comment_120385871

But the DUP's move doesn't greatly matter to Sunak.

The DUP has no influence in politics in Britain - zero. They can stuff up the government of Northern Ireland but British voters don't really care about that, and Sunak pays no electoral price in Britain on account of Stormont being suspended.

What Sunak cares about is rebellion within the Tory party, and the DUP would only be relevant to that if there were more than trivial numbers of Tory MPs who would rebel on account of the WF not being acceptable to the DUP. While there may be Tory MPs who rebel, very few - probably none - will do so out of deference to the DUP.

There's no chance that Sunak will lose this vote. The ERG is a greatly depleted force, and even its remaining members recognise that arguments over the protocol have negligible traction with the British voters that the Tory party needs to woo. The Tories have an 80-seat majority and the ERG certainly do not have the numbers to overturn that. Nevertheless the more Tory MPs who rebel, the weaker Sunak's (already weak) position within the party becomes.

But the DUP are irrelevant to this calculation. The bottom line here is that having no functioning devloved government in NI is less of a problem for the UK than having bad relations with the EU and the US. Once the British government makes that calculation, the DUP is basically irrelevant.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386124#Comment_120386124

I know their next move will not matter to Sunak, but the next move is theirs all the same.

The DUP have to address devolved government or it will be addressed for them.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386258#Comment_120386258

There is not a chance of them returning to devolved government in the near future (in my opinion). Sam Mcbride was saying on radio ulster yesterday that the dup is as weak as he can ever remember. he can’t remember a previous time when the dup leadership were being led by their voters rather than the other way around. The unionist people are adamant that the dup do not return to stormont. They can try their yes-panels, their consultations, etc but I don’t see them being able to return