Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390476#Comment_120390476

Performance of the day must go to Jim Allister on Nolan Live.

Absolutely livid and insulting to the other Alliance panelist when she dared to suggest she represented Unionists in her party. Worth watching for Ben Lowry too, a news editor/journalist going full on Unionist and joining in, in the derogatry remarks.

pixelburp

Stands to reason in light of the Mothership essentially saying "we don't care, move on 'cos we are", this hardcore Unionist rump would start to lash out and devour each other. What else have they got at this stage? Even polls now instructing the DUP to get over themselves.

It's time for the DUP to either píss or get off the pot, but we all know they won't say the Quiet Part Loud and admit this is about a green-tinged FM, so I guess that's leaving them with ... ? Well, nothing really but it'll be fascinating to see what Donaldson pivots to now. They're out of options, and have no allies left worth a damn.

Oddly I don't believe any of this is going to move the needle on a UI, 'cos in the shape it's in right now - who'd want to embrace this lunatic fringe as part of a whole? The DUP and those like our unfortunately sole Unionist voice, who'd vote for but don't support them (??), can't even deal with their Union rejecting them wholesale. Imagine having to include them in a UI.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120389954#Comment_120389954

It's only remainers who need to do things like respect the democratic will.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390447#Comment_120390447

What you identify — I think rightly — as an excellent starting point for climbing out of the hole has been in place all along, downcow. From the moment Brexit was first mooted until today there has never been a point where a majority in NI has not favoured the union over a united Ireland. But a starting-point, however excellent, is useless unless you are willing to climb. And, so far, the DUP and their associates have been much more interested in continuing to dig. Your cryptic teaser suggesting that they are about to reverse course is interesting but, um, I'll reserve judgement until there's a bit less teasing and a bit more revelation.

The topic of this thread is not "union or united Ireland?"; it's "Brexit impact on Northern Ireland". I think the DUP has tried hard to link the two — at first, because they hoped that Brexit would distance NI from IRL and, subsequently, because they feared that Brexit would distance NI from GB. That strategy has, as you rightly observe, led them to dig a very deep hole for themselves. The way out has been clear all along; stop trying to conflate the terms of Brexit and the health of the union.

Way back when we were all younger and more foolish, you started this thread over here to discuss the Hoey/Habib court challenge to the Protocol. The challenge was, essentially, that the Protocol violated the GFA guarantee that NI's place in the union would not change except on foot of a border poll. Now that we are older and wiser, we know that the challenge lost comprehensively; at every level of the British judicial system, every judge who considered the matter concluded that the Protocol did not alter NI's place in the union in a way inconsistent with the GFA.

The DUP doesn't want to hear this, but it's evident that NI as a whole does. Across unionists, nationalist and unaligned alike, public opinion supports the WF. Even among unionists — for every unionist who opposes the WF, three unionists support it. Indeed, even among DUP voters, support for the WF comfortably outweighs opposition. The only group for whom this is not true is TUV voters, and that's a pretty tiny group.

Unless we think that all these people have suddenly ceased to be unionists, the only conclusion we can draw from this is that unionist in general don't buy the "terms of brexit = place in the union" argument. They may or may not be thrilled about the WF, but they don't see it as violating the fundamentals of the union. They evaluate it in terms, not of its impact on the union, but of its impact on Northern Ireland. And they think that, given the political realities in Britain, it's probably the best that NI can achieve for now. Something better might be acheivable if Britain were less fixated on the hardest possible Brexit. But, in the world in which NI actually exists, this is the best there is.

And I think the DUP recognising that is probably the key change of heart that will enable them to start climbing.

Although nothing in their past history suggests that they are capable of doing so, the DUP would also do well to reflect how they came to dig so enthusiastically. They have cringed and fawned to a British political movement that, basically, doesn't give a damn about the union. They need to be honest with themselves about how they came to do that, and what needs to change to ensure that they won't do it again.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390447#Comment_120390447

This has got nothing to do with a united Ireland.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390528#Comment_120390528

It's grist to the mill on a UI IMO.

How could any Unionist say 'Westminster cares' with a straight face? At least 2 British, Tory and Unionist PM's came over, lied straight to their faces then promptly threw them under the bus.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390564#Comment_120390564

Standard response though from this user: move the goal-posts, rather than deal with the actual reality now set forth - and insisted upon - by the Union and Institutions this DUP rump claim to orbit around. Westminister has instructed the DUP, with a voice as close to unified as you can get in 2023, to move forward with the arrangements agreed and voted upon. Implement this please, stop stalling. Britain, England really, doesn't care anymore and have better things to be doing (like shipping brown people to Rwanda and tearing up EU laws, but that's another matter)

So of course the only response after days of silence is to witter on about a United Ireland, as if that's the takeaway from the last couple of days movement. I suppose it's at least a more pertinent topic than the blather about Cecil the Lion or whatever the F was worried about the other day.

FrancieBrady

Fascinating stat from yesterday.

The DUP's Jim Shannon put down a motion in the HoC, 'That this House celebrates the 50th Anniversary of Dolly Parton's hit song 'I Will Always Love You''.

It got 32 MP's votes while the anti WF lobby could only muster 29 MP's.

It's a mad world sometimes.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390678#Comment_120390678

You should be booted out of the chamber for wasting government time on something so stupid.

Grassey

Looking forward to negotiating? What is left to negotiate?

From the Guardian:

The leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has said the Windsor Framework is a “sticking plaster” and that he is looking forward to negotiating with the Prime Minister and Secretary of State.

“I am not interested in sticking plasters, they don’t work and I’m afraid there is in the Windsor Framework an element of the sticking plaster,” Donaldson said.

“It won’t work, it will not deliver the long term stability and prosperity that Northern Ireland.”

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391668#Comment_120391668

Jesus Fúcking Christ these clowns don't know when the game is lost; if this was a breakup, they'd be the gormless soon-to-be ex that doesn't realise where the conversation's going, that the other person's mind is made up.

Mind you, the second and third paragraph, viewed through a certain lens, does have the language of Donaldson admitting the Windsor is here to stay, but they're not happy about it and just making perfunctory noise about it.

Choochtown

So many commentators will try to understand the "strategy" and "tactics" of the DUP and it is fascinating how they continue to get things so spectacularly wrong but lets not ignore the elephant in the room.

The leader of the party (and some of its most vocal members) is a proven sectarian bigot. When deeply held views are held sometimes logical behaviour will take a back seat.

FrancieBrady

Alex Kane very pessimistic about the future for Unionism.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391752#Comment_120391752

That’s a pretty nasty remark about Donaldson.

you probably know my position ie that there is a continuum from sectarian to non-sectarian and bigot to whatever the opposite is and that we are all on that continuum somewhere. None of us are at the snowy white end. So I am not going to disagree that Donaldson is on that continuum with the rest of us but he certainly is not as far along it as many members of Sinn Fein (and indeed some members of his own party)

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390563#Comment_120390563

Apologies, I am not trying to tease. And I don’t think the dup have the slightest strategy in mind to get out of this hole.

I do believe there are new ideas rising in the grassroots unionist community but dup will be playing catch up again.

I hope it is not a riddle or a tease, but I think there is an option (yet to be raised publicly) which could lead to unionist acceptance that, while the protocol remains unfair and undemocratic, we will accept that it is there, work it and will reestablish stormont, on a condition that x is implemented which would lead to ni being an amazing place to invest. Eu will resist, shinners will hate it but won’t be able to be seen to resist and young people will be enthusiastic about their future.

can it happen. I’m not sure. If it happens it will be the biggest nail ever sunk in the Ui coffin.

downcow

I think in the coming weeks it will be floated publicly

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120392927#Comment_120392927

This is about as fantastical as the idea that Westminster was on yere side.

What are these young grassroots unionists waiting for 🤣

Leroy42

How is it undemocratic? It was voted by the sovereign parliament of the Union.

FrancieBrady

One wonders why this fabulous 'nail' has not been floated before.

Perhaps it is a 'rusty nail'?

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120392970#Comment_120392970

Not you unionists. I am saying that is this would work all young people would be big supporters (bar the few who aspire to a Ui)

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120392972#Comment_120392972

Sorry you misunderstood me. It is undemocratic that rules can be implemented here that we cannot vote for ie eu rules

downcow

Let me be clear and and have some humility.

the protocol is a big win for republicans. Let’s call it 4-0. The FM is a consultation goal or two. Unionism needs to regroup and I trust the will unite with alliance and even SDLP around the option I here is out there

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120392927#Comment_120392927

@downcow: And I don’t think the dup have the slightest strategy in mind to get out of this hole.

The DUP have really only ever had one strategy and that was to be on the opposite end of the spectrum to nationalism, regardless of how it affected the people of NI.

I do believe there are new ideas rising in the grassroots unionist community but dup will be playing catch up again.

ideas for what?

@downcow: I hope it is not a riddle or a tease, but I think there is an option (yet to be raised publicly) which could lead to unionist acceptance that, while the protocol remains unfair and undemocratic, we will accept that it is there, work it

The protocol was put forwards by HMG as a way of being able to have their Brexit. This was accepted by the EU and after it was passed by Westminster (with Tories not wanting to spend time discussing it!), signed into international law.

The "revised" protocol that is the WF was voted into law by Westminster by an overwhelming majority of 515 to 29.

We saw yesterday that a poll showed that most unionists are in favour of the protocol so it is just a minority of unionists that have a bee in their bonnet!

So how exactly is it undemocratic?

Do you mean that GB is imposing a position in terms of NI's relationship with the EU, despite some being against that position? Kind of like Brexit being imposed on the people of NI despite them voting against it?

@downcow: and will reestablish stormont, on a condition that x is implemented which would lead to ni being an amazing place to invest.

So again, the DUP's idea of democracy is that it should be conditional on their wishes being implemented? This idea does sound like the current one!

@downcow: Eu will resist, shinners will hate it but won’t be able to be seen to resist and young people will be enthusiastic about their future.

You don't know what this idea is but you know that people of NI will turn their backs on the EU, SF and all the other bogeymen?

@downcow: can it happen. I’m not sure. If it happens it will be the biggest nail ever sunk in the Ui coffin.

I'm really intrigued now!

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120393059#Comment_120393059

This must be hitting you hard because that post reads like a man who is a fair few whiskeys deep.

Why have they not released this amazing cross community holy grail already. Why wait ?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120393059#Comment_120393059

The protocol is a massive win for those who want the benefits of the EU and Uk markets.

Unionism tried to make it a Unionist V Republican issue, but even huge numbers of their own support were not buying that snake oil.

awec

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has "yet to come to terms with the significance" of the vote in support of the new Brexit deal, Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has said.

Speaking on Thursday, Mr Heaton-Harris said the deal was "done" and would soon become international law.

"There is no renegotiating of that deal," he said.

"We are now going to put our best efforts into making that deal work - that's both us and the European Union."

Pretty strong language, and a total boot in the balls for the DUP. British Government losing patience.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120393076#Comment_120393076

Taunt and goad all you like. I have form for being correct on here in the face of this type of abuse.

this is not about releasing anything. I have been very pessimistic over last few days about the future of the country I love.

OWC will still be here for my time on this planet, but I want it to be a fantastic place to live for generations to come.

I have had a scenario shared with me over the last few days which excites me and has brought positivity back.

can it happen - yes

will it happen - I don’t know

will the eu block it - I don’t know.

unfortunately trust is so low in this part of the world that I will wait until others think it is the right time. The largest party in ni does not want ni to exist. That is a difficult environment for bringing something to the table that is good for everyone - and hence will screw republicans plan to exterminate ni

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120393124#Comment_120393124

If the EU can 'block it', it must be something you want added to the WA/WF.

So it is going to be the UK going back to the EU asking for more.

Does this one thing make the WF pass all 7 of the DUP's tests?

I doubt it, I suspect it is some facesaving clause that makes the DUP climbdown a bit easier on them.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120393118#Comment_120393118

Oh I heard that. And I knew it before he said it. The dup have lost this one massively. The made major mistakes

1) supporting brexit

2) supporting the protocol

I have faith in my community (that’s OWC community before some claim otherwise). We will work this out. Many on here have identified that no one thought ni would last 5 years. We are about to reach 105 years with a much higher proportion of the population actually identifying as Norther Irish. Anybody who thinks this disaster will finish us is deluded

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120393124#Comment_120393124

Mod: Settle down with the language there @downcow