Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386311#Comment_120386311

Unionism being led by 16.9% of the electorate.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1638446618629341184

'Devolved government' as a threat has been neutralised, Sunak knows that. Nobody of substance cares.

Either Jeffrey finds a way out of the cul de sac he has been directed up by bloggers with no electoral mandate or we proceed to a long period of Direct Rule.

The WF is more or less done as Peregrinus says, the ERG are just not strong enough and Sunak is finishing them off.

Is Unionism going to accept that price (Direct Rule) and continue voting DUP as you are going to do downcow?

I see no fear of Direct Rule in Nationalism because I and everyone else knows that Dublin will have huge input to what then happens.

Loyalist violence will only harden attitudes in Westminster BTW, so again, not a clever strategic option.

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386311#Comment_120386311

And what future then do you see for Northern Ireland and its people?

The UK will forge ahead with the Windsor Framework. They have no choice, already they are losing out on EU wide programs like Horizon and they are desperate to join. There is no going back for Sunak.

Would you be happy with direct rule from Westminster with the inevitable input from Ireland? And , more importantly, do you think most people in Northern Ireland would be happy to get rid of the Stormont Executive?

It seems to me that without its own voice, NI will just become a forgotten backwater of the UK. And it that case, the attraction of uniting with Ireland can only grow.

Peregrinus

As McBride points out, that's a pretty weak position. In a democracy, political parties are not supposed to pander to the prejudices of voters; they're supposed to provide a degree of leadership; to seek to move the community towards a different place from where it is now. In particular they have a responsibility for the consequences of the policies they pursue, a responsibility they cannot evade simply by bleating "but it was a popular policy at the time!"

As long as Stormont remains inoperative, the Stormont Brake cannot operate, and the 2024 vote on the continued operation of the Protocol cannot be held. Thus DUP policy is to maximise unionist impotence. This may be popular with voters who have been assured that this throwing-of-toys-out-of-the-pram will be an effective technique to persuade the UK government to do what it has to do to ameliorate or remove the protocol, but that assurance is false and at some point voters will begin to realise that.

For the time being the UK government has decided that not having a functioning government in NI is something they can live with. There's no particular reason why that position should change any time soonand, if it does change, the UK government may decide that negotiating changes to the GFA is more politically appealing than reopening the terms of Brexit - British voters wouldn't really be bothered by the first, but they would be sickened by the second. The DUP won't agree to changes to the GFA designed to remove their ability to collapse the institutions, but they don't have a veto - they never agreed to the first GFA either, but it happened anyway.

The DUP, not for the first time, have painted themselves into a corner. Any time other parties move towards their position, they keep adding new "tests" that must be satisfied to ensure that they won't ever have to be satisfied. But there's no point in trying to satisfy a negotiating counterparty whose position is that they cannot be satisfied; the strategy from now on will be to circumvent the DUP, not to placate them. They still have a majority of the unionist vote, but so what? Having a majority of the unionist vote is wholly irrelevant at Westminster and, as long as the institutions remain inoperative, its not terribly relevant in NI either.

Besides, but the unionist vote is declining. Despite the DUP having a majority of the unionist vote, seven out of ten NI voters vote for parties who, whatever their views about the protocol, don't want to collapse Stormont as a response. I'd just pause here to point out that seven out of ten voters is a far bigger majority than, oh, say, the union itself has ever been able to command in NI. Why should such a majority of the population have their means of self-determination trampled on by a party whose contribution to politics is entirely negative? Allowing the DUP the privileged position which they so comprehensively abuse will become less and less acceptable as time goes on.

There will come a point where amendments to the GFA to provide that parties who opt out of the institutions cannot prevent other parties from participating in them might be thought likely to secure the support of a majority in a referendum. It's not in the DUP's interests to try to make that day come any sooner but, true to form, they are doing their level best to bring it on as fast as possible.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386427#Comment_120386427

In a democracy, political parties are not supposed to pander to the prejudices of voters; they're supposed to provide a degree of leadership; to seek to move the community towards a different place from where it is now.

Nail firmly on the head. It is a far cry from the leadership shown by Trimble and Hume or even McGuinness and Paisley Sr that we're witnessing. All four would be turning in their graves watching this carry on.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386447#Comment_120386447

In fairness you have to put Beattie in there too. He, like Sunak, knows he'll be villified and Lundied, but he is brave enough to lead.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386464#Comment_120386464

I'd be reluctant to include Beattie in commentary about rolling in graves for obvious reasons, Francie!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386472#Comment_120386472

😁 True.

FrancieBrady

ERG still advocating a border on the island of Ireland on the Nolan Show.

No solutions that are workable = a retreat into irrelevancy.

They'll be relegated to the bold corner from here on in.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386311#Comment_120386311

A lot of Unionist may be adamant that the DUP do not return to Stormont at present but I think it is very likely many of them will look back at this period through very different eyes in the not too distant future. All it takes is one event where people say "what could have been if we had our own government in place" and the folly of this policy will be clear to even those who are supporting it. Conversely, I can't see there being an event where anyone except hardcore Unionists decide it was a good idea.

It is clear that the current setup doesn't serve anyone in NI and moderates who may have seen it as a long term option will have to look elsewhere. It is Unionism that is denying them their devolved government and preferred option so they wont be supporting that. In the absence of a cross community devolved government, a United Ireland where they can influence their own future (which isn't the case in Westminster) has to become a serious consideration.

Westminster is clearly happy to legislate against the wishes of Unionists so Unionists essentially have no voice or power. Is another generation going to adopt Unionism when it has nothing to offer them?

An example of an event which could leave the people of NI thinking "what could have been" is Euro 28 if the UK & Ireland bid is successful. If NI isn't hosting because they haven't got a big enough stadium (30k seats), I'd say people will be pointing at the lack of government in the lead up and the reason for that will be Unionism. The finer details around that lack of government will have been long forgotten if the WF is implemented despite DUP objections. At that stage no Stormont is just cutting NI's nose off to spite, well not even sure who it spites bth.

Glaceon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120386340#Comment_120386340

Personally I think the DUP would prefer direct rule rather than serve alongside a Nationalist FM, which is what this is all really about anyway.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120387557#Comment_120387557

I disagree.

They know full well that Direct Rule won't really be Direct Rule but a form Joint Authority effectively, if not actual Joint Authority.

They are more than mindful of what Michael Martin made clear Dublin will do in the event of powersharing not being an option:

“The Good Friday Agreement provides for meetings of that in respect of close consultation with the Irish government in terms of matters pertaining to Northern Ireland,” he said. He added: “In the event that there is a sustained period with no functioning of the Northern Ireland executive body assembly, there cannot be a return to the direct rule arrangements of the past.

“And the Government will fully pursue its consultative role under the Good Friday Agreement, that is the position that we will exhaust every possibility within that framework if there is a sustained period of absence of the executive or the assembly.

The DUP getting itself between a rock and a hard place strategically again.

rock22

@FrancieBrady "he DUP getting itself between a rock and a hard place strategically again."

By now that space between the rock and the hard place is very familiar territory to the DUP .

FrancieBrady

Huge vote for:

Yes: 515

No: 29

ERG/DUP could not even get over 30 to revolt.

cml387

Windsor framework passed by 515 to 29.

Not much of a rebellion

Grassey

Far cry from the 'predicted' 40 Tory rebels this morning.

The Union has spoken... Accept the result and back to Stormont now eh?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388013#Comment_120388013

ERG are a more busted flush than I thought.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388003#Comment_120388003

The political equivalent of the DUP being told to get back in their box and wise the F up. The union they claim to uphold wants nothing to do with their agitation, so-called "concerns" and the rest of the UK wants to move on.

We all know what's going to happen next, but watching those malcontents twist will bring if nothing else, perverted entertainment.

Capt'n Midnight

Just 15.7% of Unionists oppose the Windsor Framework.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388134#Comment_120388134

TBH the only difficult thing about predicting what Unionism will do next is the timing of the climbdown.

This approach to politics has gone on since the Anglo Irish Agreement.

Every time the routine has been the same.

Grassey

So many good quotes coming out of today.

I think this is my current favourite showing zero understanding of the brake mechanism...

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1638559187050307589?t=VSvIPoX-nacC9Xqk096eww&s=19

LuckyLloyd

The Statelet is not tenable in the long term without devolved power sharing. As a Republican I can only commend the DUP for their continued efforts to create a UI. They are knocking decades off the inevitable.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388013#Comment_120388013

Unionists only care about being British when it suits. They didn't care about British democracy when they denied votes and gerrymandered. They didn't care when it came to homosexuals and suddenly the will of the British people can go fuk itself once again.

Wanna be part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland well it's people spoke so deal with it.

road_high

What a drubbing humiliation today for unionists yet again at the hands of their Tory “brethren”! When will they ever learn middle England has absolutely zero interest in them or their role in the U.K.? Looking at their (short) list of support is a sorry tale indeed.

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120387557#Comment_120387557

Either way that probably means a grater role then for Dublin. Westminister simply isn’t interested in hand holding a bunch of ungrateful paddies. The Tory leadership almost always mention the need to get Stormont up and running which is code for piss off and sort out your own problems

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120389038#Comment_120389038

Their brief day in the sun is long gone post brexit. Real politik and the need to trade have taken over. The numbers today were humiliating pathetic. Considering how unpopular and shakey that government is. The DUP are tiny fish in a big pond- they’re irrelevant in a numbers game

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120389558#Comment_120389558

Boris told them there would be no border in the Irish Sea - Boris agreed a border in the Irish Sea.

Sunak told them there would be no agreement unless Unionists were on board - agreed a deal without Unionists onboard.

Does Unionism need a diagram you wonder. Under the Tory bus again and again.

FrancieBrady

The Lundying of Doug Beattie in full swing tonight. Some of Bryson's tweets are hilarious...he has lost it.

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1638660543761518592

road_high

He’s lost the plot. There was over 500 MPs in favour of the deal. Against those kind of numbers it’s a busted flush- any sensible person would except the democratic will and move on. But not these loons

downcow

my Goodness. Everyone is in full swing since I was last on.

the above posts must be set in the context that more people in ni want the union to continue than want a Ui. I am guessing the vast majority of you posting in the last 24 hrs want a Ui. So whilst I am in the minority on here, that is not reflective of the ni population.

dup and unionists parties have certainly made a mess of things and dug themselves into a few big holes here. We have faced greater challenges though. It’s interesting that we couldn’t self-harm much more and still there is not a majority who think life would be better in a UI. That is an excellent starting point to climb out of this hole.

I won’t say anymore here yet but I believe an interesting proposal is gathering support in unionist grassroots that may see a huge win for everyone in OWC and thereby for the unionist case and allow us to accept the WF (with tweaks) from a position of strength and success.

Grassey

It doesn't matter that 500+ supported the vote... Because if you do mental gymnastics it was really a win for the 29 on the spin machine...

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1638575495070531585?t=hYtzh5kdkaM_J312a7lmVQ&s=19