Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

FintanMcluskey

froog wrote: »

not far off, 800 ish deaths in January with a few days left.

i suppose your in the "with not of" camp though which has been thoroughly debunked numerous times now but yet another convenient way to play down this pandemic rather than sucking it up and dealing with it.

Eh no it hasn’t been debunked. Quite the opposite when the median age of death and co morbidities is revealed

froog

froog wrote: »

not far off, 800 ish deaths in January with a few days left.

i suppose your in the "with not of" camp though which has been thoroughly debunked numerous times now but yet another convenient way to play down this pandemic rather than sucking it up and dealing with it.

So you believe that ONLY Covid killed these people? Nothing to do with age and other serious illnesses?

How has that been debunked by the way?

FintanMcluskey

beauf wrote: »

Well you're not going to get Xmas rush in February are you. It's was done at the wrong time and mismanaged. Other countries managed to come out of a lockdown properly.

Problem is Ireland was in lockdown almost double the amount of other EU countries.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) health system policy tracker states that public spaces defined as parks, restaurants, bars, cinemas, non-essential shops and services were closed in Ireland for 120 days from March 12th.

The country with the next highest number of days where public spaces were shut was Finland (74 days) followed by Slovakia (66 days) and Bulgaria and Estonia (both 65 days).

Isn’t that staggering! Nearly twice as long. Don’t think it takes into account the additional lockdowns we suffered either

TobyHolmes

Boggles wrote: »

Restrictions in October pushed the 2nd wave further on.

Looking at other European countries who were late to implement restrictions hit Christmas week with a far higher instance rate, huge hospitalizations and deaths have followed, with talks of longer more harsher lockdowns.

Your claims don't stand up to the data, if we hadn't brought instance rate down in October the reality is we would have had to introduce harsher restrictions for Christmas, which would have just been ignored anyway, with the predictable consequences, we'd also probably have had to shut schools and cancel non covid health earlier.

we'd be out of it now then wouldnt we as we wouldnt have had that crazy spike

froog

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Be that as it may. Its certainly not 60% as froog's graphic suggests. More like ~ 8%.

you don't understand the graph. it is not saying 60% excess deaths for the year. it is saying the highest data point is 60% higher. i.e. that particular week or month is 60% higher than normal.

beauf

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Problem is Ireland was in lockdown almost double the amount of other EU countries.

Isn’t that staggering! Nearly twice as long. Don’t think it takes into account the additional lockdowns we suffered either

It's staggering how bad we are following simple guidelines. We don't follow instructions then claim they don't work. We lift the restrictions and it's gets worse. Then people blame the restrictions not the lifting of them.

Then to fix we want to lift the restrictions again and repeat the same mistake over and over.

froog

Deleted User wrote: »

So you believe that ONLY Covid killed these people? Nothing to do with age and other serious illnesses?

How has that been debunked by the way?

please read up on how ireland and other countries record covid deaths as per WHO guidelines and come back to me. as i'm not explaining yet another aspect of covid that you and others can't be bothered to educate yourselves on.

otherwise these arguments are pointless and extremely tedious.

CalamariFritti

beauf wrote: »

We love to look at these in isolation. But in reality there is more going on. So for example lockdown, has reduced deaths from other causes because people are not doing those things. On the flip side if you're ignoring C19, and overloading your health system. It maybe causing deaths, as there isn't capacity to deal with the issues that normally wouldn't cause an issue.

But even ignoring all of that, as a sweeping generalization, Sweden is bad example to argue for herd immunity.

In this context I gave up arguing for herd immunity although strictly speaking thats what we're doing too. Anyway.

I think the argument is more along the lines of that none of the models and doomsday predictions for a country not implementing restrictions or lockdowns (or vastly lighter versions of it) came true. Or even remotely close.

And while covid restrictions may have reduced other deaths there is also a very 'light' 2019 in terms of deaths. Something that has always been followed by 'stronger' years in the past. So yes there are many things at play.

The bottom line is that while excess deaths may be there depending on what you compare 2020 with they are certainly rather low. Not anyway near our initial predictions that started the whole panic. Therefore we must conclude that we made the initial decisions based on very bad data and yet at no point have we even tried to get to better data or adjust our response accordingly to what we learned.

SusieBlue

beauf wrote: »

The opposite happened. They opened up supply and people lost their heads.

It's contradictory to say lockdown doesn't work then claim a 3.5 lockdown work would have worked.

People behaved as people do.
Restrict movement and personal liberties for indefinite large periods of time, say, almost a full year for arguments sake, but don’t be surprised when they take full advantage of any taste of normality that they get when they do get it. We aren’t robots. The longer this goes on the bigger the explosions will be when we get these brief breaks.
It wasn’t remotely surprising that people made the most of things when they were isolated from their loved ones for so long, and knew that another lockdown was looming.

There was more freedom and normality with 3.5. People wouldn’t have been so desperate come December 1st if we had stayed at that level and the cases wouldn’t have exploded.
Everyone tried to do everything in the space of 3 weeks. The cases sky rocketing was a given with that.

I personally would have avoided the shops in December if I could have, but they were closed for most of October and all of November.
It forced lots of people to avail of a lot of services in a very narrow period of time. Keeping some things open with reduced capacities would have avoided the huge surge of demand that built up during the 6 weeks of closure.

CalamariFritti

froog wrote: »

the red blue are just male and female.

Thanks. What is the control number? As in when we say excess deaths what are they in excess to? 2019? 2018? An average of the last 5 years?

And again. Mortality tables come annually. Not just from Feb to July.

SusieBlue

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ah that’s we did wrong we eased restrictions slightly.

We should never ease restrictions

Stay in lockdown to avoid lockdown, I can’t believe this is still being trotted out as a solution.

FintanMcluskey

beauf wrote: »

It's staggering how bad we are following simple guidelines. We don't follow instructions then claim they don't work. We lift the restrictions and it's gets worse. Then people blame the restrictions not the lifting of them.

Then to fix we want to lift the restrictions again and repeat the same mistake over and over.

Doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results is insanity

Lockdown doesn’t work, let’s have some more lockdown

froog

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Thanks. What is the control number? As in when we say excess deaths what are they in excess to? 2019? 2018? An average of the last 5 years?

And again. Mortality tables come annually. Not just from Feb to July.

you know what, why don't you do a bit of research yourself on sweden's excess deaths. find what ever would satisfy you.

you can start here:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

FintanMcluskey

beauf wrote: »

Well you're not going to get Xmas rush in February are you. It's was done at the wrong time and mismanaged. Other countries managed to come out of a lockdown properly.

If you take medicine and it doesn't work. Do you then say all medicine's don't work....

No but I don’t keep taking the same medicine and scratching my head wondering why it’s not working

I try a different medicine

CalamariFritti

froog wrote: »

you know what, why don't you do a bit of research yourself on sweden's excess deaths. find what ever would satisfy you.

you can start here:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

I did already. I am only responding to your earlier graphic that paints a very distorted and untrue picture.

Look I'm not a covid denier despite what you may think. But I work with data including mortality tables for many years. And i dont like bad data and statistics. I'm no statistics guru but I'm reasonably solid. I do work with statistics and I know what one can do with them.

If there are excess death so be it I'm not going to try and talk them away. I'm not that dogmatic.

Your earlier image was very bad data or lets say a very bad representation of it.

beauf

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No but I don’t keep taking the same medicine and scratching my head wondering why it’s not working I try a different medicine

You stopped taking the medicine and got sick again. But are blaming the medicine, that you stopped taking.

Kunta Kinte

SusieBlue wrote: »

Stay in lockdown to avoid lockdown, I can’t believe this is still being trotted out as a solution.

So what is your solution then? Open everything and let the virus rip is it?

FintanMcluskey

beauf wrote: »

You stopped taking the medicine and got sick again. But are blaming the medicine, that you stopped taking.

But the side effects of the medicine are so great it’s causing serious damage to your body and you can’t take it indefinitely.

Perhaps it’s time to seek other treatments

Tenzor07

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

So what is your solution then? Open everything and let the virus rip is it?

I'd say now the solution is to have all the over 60's/Vunerables vaccinated by March and then open the country... what dya reckon? Fresh ideas and all that..

beauf

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results is insanity

Lockdown doesn’t work, let’s have some more lockdown

You're still blaming lockdown for some thing that happened when lock down was lifted/eased..

FintanMcluskey

beauf wrote: »

You're still blaming lockdown for some thing that happened when lock down was lifted/eased..

Because what happened was a side effect being Europe’s most suppressed nation since the previous March.

beauf

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But the side effects of the medicine are so great it’s causing serious damage to your body and you can’t take it indefinitely.

Perhaps it’s time to seek other treatments

A lot of people have never been healthier.

Since this whole argument is the needs of the many outweigh the few. It's just that it hasn't occurred to the people saying this that they might also be the few (economically speaking).

Whatsisname

I'm not gonna get into a back and forth about "with" or "of"

But you can see how the BBC report it.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1354107097303146500?s=20

Didn't Leo Varadker even talk about how Ireland records covid deaths back in like July or so? and said anyone who's died after testing positive is recorded as a covid death?

beauf

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Because what happened was a side effect being Europe’s most suppressed nation since the previous March.

Europe's most stupid nation in Dec maybe...

FintanMcluskey

beauf wrote: »

A lot of people have never been healthier.

Since this whole argument is the needs of the many outweigh the few. It's just that it hasn't occurred to the people saying this that they might also be the few (economically speaking).

What are you basing this upon?

Remembering that 1000s of cancer screening’s and procedures were cancelled in empty private hospitals last year

SusieBlue

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

So what is your solution then? Open everything and let the virus rip is it?

No, not at all. But it’s not remotely surprising that you would try to imply that and manipulate others into believing that, just because I don’t agree with the current response. I absolutely do not think we should let it rip.
But I suppose it’s easier to write people off as evil granny killing monsters than listen to their perspective.

I’ve posted my alternative ideas to locking down 5 million people for months at a time many times over on this thread. I have no interest in rehashing them again.

FintanMcluskey

beauf wrote: »

Europe's most stupid nation in Dec maybe...

I think when behavioural psychologist’s become more vocal some people may understand what happened a little bit better.

Realistically, people meeting up is what the survival of the species depends on.

Kunta Kinte

[QUOTE=FintanMcluskey;116069538]But the side effects of the medicine are so great it’s causing serious damage to your body and you can’t take it indefinitely.

Perhaps it’s time to seek other treatments[/QUOTE]

Not true. Many people can take the same medicine because they have stronger constitutions.

beauf

SusieBlue wrote: »

People behaved as people do.
Restrict movement and personal liberties for indefinite large periods of time, say, almost a full year for arguments sake, but don’t be surprised when they take full advantage of any taste of normality that they get when they do get it. We aren’t robots. The longer this goes on the bigger the explosions will be when we get these brief breaks.
It wasn’t remotely surprising that people made the most of things when they were isolated from their loved ones for so long, and knew that another lockdown was looming.

There was more freedom and normality with 3.5. People wouldn’t have been so desperate come December 1st if we had stayed at that level and the cases wouldn’t have exploded.
Everyone tried to do everything in the space of 3 weeks. The cases sky rocketing was a given with that.

I personally would have avoided the shops in December if I could have, but they were closed for most of October and all of November.
It forced lots of people to avail of a lot of services in a very narrow period of time. Keeping some things open with reduced capacities would have avoided the huge surge of demand that built up during the 6 weeks of closure.

What you're saying is it was mistake to open up restrictions before Xmas. Couldn't agree more.

If you survived without those services before Dec there was nothing you really needed in Dec either.

beauf

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

What are you basing this upon?

Remembering that 1000s of cancer screening’s and procedures were cancelled in empty private hospitals last year

...economically speaking...

This thread is about economics not health. Since the argument is let the fittest survive and the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.