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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    I've been a longtime follower of this thread but am getting increasingly pessimistic at any real relaxation of restrictions anytime soon.

    I'm a public servant in my 20's, able to wfh, increments coming in and saving loads with no travelling to and from work etc.

    However my life is completely on hold, no chance of socialising/meeting a man/holidays/seeing family (they think it's the apocalypse) etc etc etc. I can only imagine what it's like for people who don't have the working conditions that I do.

    Part of the problem is that a lot of people (this is anecdotal of course and just the people I work with) are delighted with what's going on as theyre all permanent like me and working from home and in the age bracket of late 30s to mid 50's. Suits them down to the ground being at home all the time with the kids and going for walks etc. A lot are saying they are going to take a 'wait and see approach' with the vaccine too. Probably frightened they might be encouraged back to the clinic if they take it. I dread listening to them on our zoom meetings, I despair when I hear it.

    Final point, if we keep using daily case numbers as the metric for everything we are well and truly fecked. As far as I can see the vaccine (which I'll take) doesn't fully prevent transmission so what's the end game? People are still going to catch it and pass it on from my understanding and we'll keep getting the numbers delivered to us with the Angelus everyday.

    that was cathartic :)

    That is a great first post. the endgame as far as I can see are mass protests that are currently happening in Europe. You ll ask how will this affect us as we Irish never protest - true, but other EU countries will relax restrictions not to cause riots and we ultimately, sheepishly will follow.

    If any1 is naive enough to think vaccines will magically bring back 2019 and earlier normality - oh boy you are in for a disappointment. Only a matter of time before the glorious health authorities on full pay announce "there is another, Zimbabwean variant of covid that unfortunately bypasses vaccines" "time to get back into lockdown until we can develop a new vaccine" "clap for HSE"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,695 ✭✭✭Penfailed


    1 things for sure, with the shi*show that lockdown brings you can safely expect life expectancy to reduce.

    Higher alcohol consumption
    Isolation
    Lack of social life
    No holidays
    House abuse
    Obesity
    Lack of exercise

    So no. I dont believe or agree with Pen's notion of "you can expect to live longer"

    ...and thus proving that you don't understand the concept of life expectancy.

    Gigs '24 - Ben Ottewell and Ian Ball (Gomez), The Jesus & Mary Chain, The Smashing Pumpkins/Weezer, Pearl Jam, Green Day, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Electric Picnic, Pixies, Ride, Therapy?, Public Service Broadcasting, IDLES, And So I Watch You From Afar

    Gigs '25 - Spiritualized, Supergrass, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Queens of the Stone Age, Electric Picnic, Vantastival, Getdown Services, And So I Watch You From Afar



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    john4321 wrote: »
    Can you explain what the scandal is in relation to Irish testing regimen?

    I was referring to the fact of calling HPSC figures as wilful misrepresentation.

    Theres a lot of this going on lately.

    What I want to put forward, is, has there been a cost benefit analysis done by the government about lockdowns? Because I see increasingly large amount of posts lately of "Lockdowns is the lesser evil" "Lockdowns are bad but what other alternative you suggest?"

    How can 1 say that if 1 is unaware of damages of lockdown because of a lack of cost benefit analysis?


  • Posts: 949 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    As far as I can see the vaccine (which I'll take) doesn't fully prevent transmission so what's the end game?

    It's now an endemic virus and once the over 70s and HC workers are vaccinated it will be less deadly than many flus.

    So likely the end game is targeted vaccination as often as is necessary and accepting that people will get it and some people will die from it every year.

    The silver lining is that if mRNA vaccines are proven safe over the next 5-10 years it's unlikely that we'll ever face this situation with a virus again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,695 ✭✭✭Penfailed


    Thats very harsh. Uncalled for.

    Not harsh. Yes, his comment was uncalled for.

    Gigs '24 - Ben Ottewell and Ian Ball (Gomez), The Jesus & Mary Chain, The Smashing Pumpkins/Weezer, Pearl Jam, Green Day, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Electric Picnic, Pixies, Ride, Therapy?, Public Service Broadcasting, IDLES, And So I Watch You From Afar

    Gigs '25 - Spiritualized, Supergrass, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Queens of the Stone Age, Electric Picnic, Vantastival, Getdown Services, And So I Watch You From Afar



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 718 ✭✭✭Kunta Kinte


    How is Europe’s youngest nation in such a mess now one has to ask?

    Likely because unnecessary suppression last Summer I think.

    Europe was back to normal for months as Dublin, Kildare and Offaly entered more unnecessary restrictions.

    I have no doubt in my mind this Summer will be a repeat of last Summer

    You keep banging on about Ireland being Europe`s youngest nation not that it makes any material difference anyway. What is your evidence for this claim?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,392 ✭✭✭✭Ha Long Bay


    I was referring to the fact of calling HPSC figures as wilful misrepresentation.

    Theres a lot of this going on lately.

    What I want to put forward, is, has there been a cost benefit analysis done by the government about lockdowns? Because I see increasingly large amount of posts lately of "Lockdowns is the lesser evil" "Lockdowns are bad but what other alternative you suggest?"

    How can 1 say that if 1 is unaware of damages of lockdown because of a lack of cost benefit analysis?




    How are the HPSC figures a willful misrepresentation?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Squiggle wrote: »
    107 from Covid.

    2245 with Covid and underlying conditions.

    Median age at death 83.

    ( Data valid up to Week 2 2021 )
    Talk about wilful misrepresentation
    Squiggle wrote: »
    No misrepresentation , data taken from HPSC

    If you're looking for wilful, and scandalous misrepresentation look no further than the daily reporting of Positive PCR results as being "cases" of Covid 19.

    This despite the WHO advisory of December 14th, and updated last week:

    https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05
    john4321 wrote: »
    How are the HPSC figures a willful misrepresentation?

    I dont think they are. Like I said. Numbers are very, very small. Cant misrepresent that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14 CatalogJinx


    That is a great first post. the endgame as far as I can see are mass protests that are currently happening in Europe. You ll ask how will this affect us as we Irish never protest - true, but other EU countries will relax restrictions not to cause riots and we ultimately, sheepishly will follow.

    If any1 is naive enough to think vaccines will magically bring back 2019 and earlier normality - oh boy you are in for a disappointment. Only a matter of time before the glorious health authorities on full pay announce "there is another, Zimbabwean variant of covid that unfortunately bypasses vaccines" "time to get back into lockdown until we can develop a new vaccine" "clap for HSE"

    Thanks, I just don't see the way out, it feels like we're too far gone.

    I've always been a firm believer in the truth lieing somewhere in the middle of both sides of an argument. On one polar side, we have the people who have completely drank the kool aid in relation to how serious or potentially serious this all is. On the other side are the 'let it rip'ers who can sometimes comes across as not acknowledging that this is a very harmful disease if you are very old or very vulnerable.

    I'd love to see us being treated like adults when the vulnerable are protected (whenever that may be). I.e 'we've protected our most vulnerable so now we open up acknowledging the fact that this disease will still spread and be transmitted but we're not going to let it cripple society any longer as the risk is now even more negligible'. I just can't see anything remotely close to that happening, it will probably be more of the same through summer (we can't overwhelm our hospitals etc etc) and into winter.

    It'll be interesting to watch what way the goal posts shift when our vulnerable are protected. Surely by that stage the curve will have been flattened?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles



    Part of the problem is that a lot of people (this is anecdotal of course and just the people I work with) are delighted with what's going on as theyre all permanent like me and working from home and in the age bracket of late 30s to mid 50's. Suits them down to the ground being at home all the time with the kids and going for walks etc.

    Delighted to be at home trying to work and homeschool?

    NOTSUREIF.jpg


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,506 ✭✭✭Seweryn


    It'll be interesting to watch what way the goal posts shift when our vulnerable are protected. Surely by that stage the curve will have been flattened?
    Remember those two weeks of restrictions which were due to last until March 29 to flatten the curve?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14 CatalogJinx


    Boggles wrote: »
    Delighted to be at home trying to work and homeschool?

    Yeah, as I said, anecdotal.

    Cool meme tho


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Thanks, I just don't see the way out, it feels like we're too far gone.

    I've always been a firm believer in the truth lieing somewhere in the middle of both sides of an argument. On one polar side, we have the people who have completely drank the kool aid in relation to how serious or potentially serious this all is. On the other side are the 'let it rip'ers who can sometimes comes across as not acknowledging that this is a very harmful disease if you are very old or very vulnerable.

    I'd love to see us being treated like adults when the vulnerable are protected (whenever that may be). I.e 'we've protected our most vulnerable so now we open up acknowledging the fact that this disease will still spread and be transmitted but we're not going to let it cripple society any longer as the risk is now even more negligible'. I just can't see anything remotely close to that happening, it will probably be more of the same through summer (we can't overwhelm our hospitals etc etc) and into winter.

    It'll be interesting to watch what way the goal posts shift when our vulnerable are protected. Surely by that stage the curve will have been flattened?

    That in bold can get you in trouble in this thread. :pac:

    Dont despair too much. It will end. There is an endgame, it will become clearer when people stop tolerating this "new normal".

    I also WFH, and have huge savings, but not for 1 minute do I agree or like or enjoy anything that is happening in this country. This is wrong, on a lot of levels.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Seweryn wrote: »
    Remember those two weeks of restrictions which were due to last until March 29 to flatten the curve?

    :D:D:D:mad::mad::(

    Ehhh. Damn. :S


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Windmill100000


    Thanks, I just don't see the way out, it feels like we're too far gone.

    I've always been a firm believer in the truth lieing somewhere in the middle of both sides of an argument. On one polar side, we have the people who have completely drank the kool aid in relation to how serious or potentially serious this all is. On the other side are the 'let it rip'ers who can sometimes comes across as not acknowledging that this is a very harmful disease if you are very old or very vulnerable.

    I'd love to see us being treated like adults when the vulnerable are protected (whenever that may be). I.e 'we've protected our most vulnerable so now we open up acknowledging the fact that this disease will still spread and be transmitted but we're not going to let it cripple society any longer as the risk is now even more negligible'. I just can't see anything remotely close to that happening, it will probably be more of the same through summer (we can't overwhelm our hospitals etc etc) and into winter.

    It'll be interesting to watch what way the goal posts shift when our vulnerable are protected. Surely by that stage the curve will have been flattened?

    Do you think that when numbers reduce we are not going to gradually reduce restrictions? I'd have presumed most people expected this to be how it will go. It may not happen as quick as some want it to, but we are hardly going to stay at 5 with consistent low numbers and when hospital ICUs are not at capacity. Not a hope anything will open up with thousands of cases a day though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,373 ✭✭✭Mr. Karate


    Keyzer wrote: »
    Lol... Quasi-communist state...

    Far from quasi-communism you were rared pal.

    You sure about that? For the last 10 [nearly 11 months] The Govt has controlled the economy by determining which businesses can be open and what can be sold. Plus we've also been restricted on how far we should go, where we should go and who we can see. These are all Communistic. I guess you're one of the "Everything will be sunshine and lollipops under Communism" types.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles



    Yeah, as I said, anecdotal.

    Indeed severely.

    Welcome anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14 CatalogJinx


    Do you think that when numbers reduce we are not going to gradually reduce restrictions? I'd have presumed most people expected this to be how it will go. It may not happen as quick as some want it to, but we are hardly going to stay at 5 with consistent low numbers and when hospital ICUs are not at capacity. Not a hope anything will open up with thousands of cases a day though.

    Hi, yes I think there probably will be a gradual easing but at a snails pace.

    As I said in my first post, the daily count is the metric we are obsessed by and people will continue to become infected by, and transmit Covid. Therefore why would they be in a rush to open us back up. The cycle of open up, figures go up, lockdown will continue for the vast majority of this year imho.

    I've seen people ask, what's the alternative? To flip that, why don't we lockdown every Xmas for the flu? (I hate to have to say this but I know Covid is 'not just the flu'). The flu is a highly transmissible disease that wreaks havoc on the elderly. Surely when we have the elderly and vulnerable vaccinated we can move on?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,331 ✭✭✭Keyzer


    As far as I can see the vaccine (which I'll take) doesn't fully prevent transmission so what's the end game? People are still going to catch it and pass it on from my understanding and we'll keep getting the numbers delivered to us with the Angelus everyday.

    that was cathartic :)

    At the risk of sounding like a patronizing d1ckhead, that's not what a vaccine does, it doesn't stop transmission.

    The vaccine provides the person who receives it a level of acquired immunity.

    It doesn't stop transmission.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 227 ✭✭BredonWimsey


    :D:D:D:mad::mad::(

    Ehhh. Damn. :S




    10 years later .... just a few more months :eek::mad:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    10 years later .... just a few more months :eek::mad:

    Next 2 weeks are crucial

    :pac:


  • Posts: 949 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Keyzer wrote: »
    At the risk of sounding like a patronizing d1ckhead, that's not what a vaccine does, it doesn't stop transmission.

    The vaccine provides the person who receives it a level of acquired immunity.

    It doesn't stop transmission.

    Many existing vaccinations stop the transmission of viruses. That's why it's so important that healthy people who can get vaccinated do so, to protect those who for whatever reason cannot receive the vaccination.

    What's not yet known is which, if any, of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations prevent transmission.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,506 ✭✭✭Seweryn


    10 years later .... just a few more months :eek::mad:
    The way I see it is that if they tell us up front we are to be imprisoned for the next one or ten years, the restrictions wouldn't last until the end of the week, because there would be a revolution. But the way they have it "engineered"... :cool:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 227 ✭✭BredonWimsey


    Seweryn wrote: »
    The way I see it is that if they tell us up front we are to be imprisoned for the next one or ten years, the restrictions wouldn't last until the end of the week, because there would be a revolution. But the way they have it "engineered"... :cool:


    yes true!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14 CatalogJinx


    Keyzer wrote: »
    At the risk of sounding like a patronizing d1ckhead, that's not what a vaccine does, it doesn't stop transmission.

    The vaccine provides the person who receives it a level of acquired immunity.

    It doesn't stop transmission.
    Oh don't worry, you don't sound patronizing at all...

    :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Gradius


    Next 2 weeks are crucial

    :pac:

    We just have to round that corner ;)


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Squiggle wrote: »
    No misrepresentation , data taken from HPSC

    If you're looking for wilful, and scandalous misrepresentation look no further than the daily reporting of Positive PCR results as being "cases" of Covid 19.

    This despite the WHO advisory of December 14th, and updated last week:

    https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

    This lie is daily at this stage.

    Any potential issues in the test is comprehensively dealt with in HSPC guidance.
    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/outbreakmanagementguidance/PCR%20weak%20results%20guidance.pdf


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I dont think they are. Like I said. Numbers are very, very small. Cant misrepresent that.

    It is wilful misrepresentation. The insinuation is that only the 107 with no preexisting conditions were the only people who died of covid that were not about to die. I would call it a lie, but I think some of you actually believe it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    This lie is daily at this stage.

    Any potential issues in the test is comprehensively dealt with in HSPC guidance.
    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/outbreakmanagementguidance/PCR%20weak%20results%20guidance.pdf

    Ugh, below is from your link

    2. PCR as a diagnostic methodology is exquisitely sensitive, capable under conditions of
    optimal sample quality of detecting fewer than 10 copies of viral RNA in a clinical sample
    3. However, PCR does not distinguish between viable virus and non-infectious RNA.
    4. In individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, PCR can often detect viral RNA for many days
    and weeks after the resolution of the clinical syndrome.


    6. A very good PCR assay with a specificity of 99.5% can still generate 5 ‘RNA detected’
    results in a cohort of 1000 individuals without the infection

    PCR doesnt seem to be any good? But we base lockdown decisions on it? :(

    I can see why Belgium & Portugal discontinued this PCR carry on


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  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ugh, below is from your link

    2. PCR as a diagnostic methodology is exquisitely sensitive, capable under conditions of
    optimal sample quality of detecting fewer than 10 copies of viral RNA in a clinical sample
    3. However, PCR does not distinguish between viable virus and non-infectious RNA.
    4. In individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, PCR can often detect viral RNA for many days
    and weeks after the resolution of the clinical syndrome.


    6. A very good PCR assay with a specificity of 99.5% can still generate 5 ‘RNA detected’
    results in a cohort of 1000 individuals without the infection

    PCR doesnt seem to be any good? But we base lockdown decisions on it? :(

    I can see why Belgium & Portugal discontinued this PCR carry on

    You are great at not reading anything which doesnt confirm your bias.

    Just on asymptomatic cases
    With respect to people asymptomatic people with no previous diagnosis of COVID-19 he
    following outlines a general approach that may be adopted in most cases:
    1. When a positive result is obtained on a person understood at the time of testing to be
    asymptomatic, it is important to establish if they had relevant symptoms either in the
    recent past, or if they have developed symptoms since the test was taken.
    2. If they have developed relevant symptoms since the test was taken they should
    generally be regarded as a recent onset infectious case.
    3. If they report relevant symptoms with a date of onset in the 10 days prior to testing, they
    should generally be regarded as a recent onset infectious cases.
    4. If they report relevant symptoms with a date of onset of more than 10 days prior to the
    test OR if they report no symptoms at any time, the following approach is appropriate:
    a. If the Ct value is high, but not very high they should be provisionally managed as
    an infectious case (with self-isolation, notification and contact tracing) pending
    further evaluation.
    b. If the Ct value is very high they should be advised to self-isolate, but notification
    and initiation of contact tracing may await the outcome of further evaluation or
    change in the clinical condition.
    5. Further evaluation must include a repeat test on the second day after the initial test (for
    example, if the initial test was taken on Monday the repeat test should be taken on
    HSE Health Protection Surveillance Centre www.hpsc.ie Page 8 of 10
    Wednesday). Ideally the second test should be performed on the same platform as the
    initial test.
    a. If the Ct value remains in the high or very high range on second day after the
    initial test the person may generally be considered as a remotely acquired
    infection and non-infectious at the time of testing. If contact tracing was initiated
    (high Ct value) it can be stood down and the person need no longer self-isolate
    b. If the Ct value has fallen below the high /very high range on repeat testing they
    should be regarded as a recent onset infectious case.
    c. In the event of a major change in Ct value within the high to very high range (for
    example Ct value changes from 39 to 31 it may be appropriate to take a further
    test 2 days later.
    6. The person should also be asked to contact their doctor (or a dedicated phone number
    in the service where they work in the context of a healthcare worker) immediately if they
    develop new relevant symptoms at any time during the period of further evaluation:
    a. If the person develops relevant symptoms at any time during the period of further
    evaluation they should be treated as a recent onset infectious case.

    That's just a portion of the document which addresses all concerns raised about the test method


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