Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630096#Comment_119630096

I think that NI, should it join to form a united Ireland, it would be a financial burden if Ireland had to fund it alone - that is true. It is currently a massive financial burden on the UK Gov, and if they cut back the subvention, then there would be huge poverty imposed on NI.

However, it is next to impossible to develop any truthful economic numbers for NI because they are not developed/published. For example, many figures are given for the whole of the UK with no breakout for NI. How much of state pensions are due to NI retirees, and how many result from working in GB? How much defence spending is directly attributable to NI? Even the NI/GB trading figures are not available. The NI NHS figures are derived from NI but are they published?

Now Brexit is in full swing, the trucks are into full scale smuggling, with no attempt to regulate the contents. Are M&S actually making correct returns on the imports into their exports south of the border, or is some or it all - well - smuggled?

looksee

Whatever about the others, I doubt an enterprise as big and regulated as M&S would be able to manage the paperwork to smuggle goods. You can't just cobble a truckload of goods into the supply chain, or set up the distribution centres to sneak certain cargo onto the trucks.

yagan

On the M&S point their Irish EU competitors won't let contraband goods undercut them. M&S know better than to bring costly scrutiny upon each and every shipment.

On a point of subvention most of that is pensions and as in 1922 crown dependencies in Ireland will remain funded by the British crown. If reunification does come about there will be british pensioners in NI who will not take up an Irish pension in principle alone and like a lot of their cohort after 1922 they may take up his majesties hospitality.

Sam Russell

The reason I mention M&S is that they have the distribution centre for the whole of Ireland in Scotland. It would be a simple mistake for goods to be described as for use in NI, but actually split between NI and Ireland. I would have thought such goods would be subject to checks as they are not exclusively for NI. Tesco could also be up to such tricks. I know they should not, but they can and do break the rules - remember, every little helps (the bottom line).

Not so long ago - in fact quite recently, M&S supplied the whole world mail-order from the UK - except Ireland. Their prices in Ireland are some 20% above the UK price for the exact same goods.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119629952#Comment_119629952

That is both funny and sad. The UK (central) govt. has now become such a disaster that those trying to do good public administration and plan ahead get made fools of, like people who forgot it was a "fancy dress" party + show up in a sensible get up instead of their clown suit!

joeysoap

There’s a M&S store in Newry and another in Drogheda. There’s no comparison in prices ( or goods)

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119638186#Comment_119638186

Just one example for M&S - first one I identified in the men's section, but they all follow the same type of uplift in price.

M&S COLLECTION

2pk Regular Fit Cotton Blend Printed Shirts

UK price £36, Irish price €54.

Now stripping off vat. £30 vs €43 or an exchange rate of GB£1 = €1.46 or €1 = 68p.

Now that is some rip-off, as todays exchange rate is GB£1 = €1.14 or €1 = 87.6p. That is an uplift of 29%.

It is not Brexit because it has always been thus. They use special price labels in Ireland to cover the UK price - the labels are extra sticky, and have a black element in them to make sure the UK price cannot be read or pealed off.

Another one in the own brand low price region.

M&S COLLECTION

12 Piece Porcelain Dinner Set

UK price £15 Irish price €20

Now stripping off vat. £12.50 vs €16.20 or an exchange rate of GB£1 = €1.30 or €1 = 77p. That is a 13% uplift - not as much but still high.

They have a much smaller range in Ireland than the UK as well as no bargains.

The same type of thing is true in B&Q, Screwfix, Halfords, etc. No real excuse for it but rip-off.

murphaph

It'll probably get even worse as these stores use the more buoyant Irish market to make up losses in a declining UK.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119639119#Comment_119639119

Possibly, but probably not by much if like Tesco they have to source for the Irish business within the EU supply chains.

M&S clothes for the most part are nursing home outfitters and Dunnes/Penny's can easily compete.

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119638630#Comment_119638630

This is a little bit over-simplistic, as you also have to take in account wages (especially the minimum wage and the upward pressure it applies to wages at levels above the minimum), comparative costs of insurance, annual store & warehouse rental figures, and council commercial rates.

Saying they sell it for X up there and X.YZ down here and therefore it's a rip-off just isn't good analysis.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119639874#Comment_119639874

Well, the same products are sold in Oxford St, Oxford, Gateshead, Glasgow, Belfast and Newry at the same prices despite the variances you mention. So why raise the prices by 20% or so in Ireland.

I already took VAT and currency into account. There warehouse is in Scotland, and Dundalk is not far from Newry. Can you suggest a better analysis?

Seth Brundle

No surprise here to anyone who had been keeping an eye on matters...

The much-vaunted post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and US could be years away, Liz Truss admitted as she landed in the US before her first official bilateral meeting with President Joe Biden.

The prime minister, en route to the United Nations General Assembly, told reporters on Tuesday: "There aren't currently any negotiations taking place with the US and I don't have an expectation that those are going to start in the short to medium term."

https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-admits-uk-us-trade-deal-could-be-years-away-with-no-negotiations-taking-place-12701700

Leroy42

And the very telling thing about the statement about the US trade deal is that it surprises nobody. It won't even make much of a splash in terms of pushback of headlines.

US Trade deal was part of the golden rewards from Brexit. Such a trade deal would be worth even more than being in the EU, the UK and US would join forces, using their special relationship, to create a new trade superpower.

But nobody is surprised that it was all nonsense, and Truss is simply getting the reality out there quickly to avoid having to talk about it again. It will be forgotten about this time tomorrow.

Brexit is such a failure and accepted as such a failure by almost everybody, that something such as this doesn't even raise an eyebrow. It is simply what everybody expected

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119640668#Comment_119640668

There's no damning indictment of political illiteracy here than the apocryphal US trade deal which will somehow offset trading loss with the EU. Middle class country Tory types lose their minds when it comes to building new houses, wind farms or fracking and yet somehow they're all for a deal which will torch the NHS and UK food standards.

For instance, Ractopamine is somehow legal in the USA despite being illegal in Russia, India and China and for good reason. There's a real stink of owning the libs coming from this without any thought given to the fact that said libs will probably just emigrate at which point people in places like Cornwall will wonder why nobody wants to live there.

Grassey

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/02/tory-mp-steve-baker-apologies-to-ireland-and-eu-for-behaviour-during-brexit

The start of the narrative to row back on the rhetoric of ripping up the NIP?

“And it’s with humility that I want to accept and acknowledge that I and others did not always behave in a way which encouraged Ireland and the European Union to trust us to accept that they have legitimate interests, legitimate interests that we’re willing to respect, because they do and we are willing to respect them.

“And I am sorry about that because relations with Ireland are not where they should be and we will need to work extremely hard to improve them and I know that we are doing so,” he said.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119693554#Comment_119693554

Uh-huh and sure we'll believe Mr. Brexit Hard Man Baker this time. And, the DUP will react and we'll be back to where it's been since it was signed.

Hermy

That statement from Baker is quite the twist in the Brexit saga.

Why the volté face?

Is he serious?

pixelburp

I don't buy it for a second, but it reads disarmingly honest in a manner I'm not used to with politicans, nevermind Brexit Ultras.

Maybe the penny is dropping, the rhetoric changing in the face of widespread hatred for the Tories at home and dawning reality WRT the realities of Brexit. The tub thumping mightn't be a guaranteed success anymore. Maybe I'm naive.

Sam Russell

The markets nearly crashing the pound only saved by expensive action by BoE has made them, perhaps, to realise the inevitable trade war with the EU over the trashing of the NIP might crash the pound beyond being saved by the BoE.

The EU offering to reduce inspections is only true as long as the UK do not try and allow non-SM products across the border. If they make any significant changes to standards, then the EU will extend inspections. It might take just inspected one truck of contraband to undue their proposals (after the UK agree to implement it, of course).

SM is based on market surveillance, so even trucks that make it through still holds up the reaction to contraband that gets through.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119693685#Comment_119693685

Baker's an odd one though. Formerly RAF, he doesn't immediately come across as one of the hedge fund managers' puppets like Kwarteng or Truss. He's either not much of a careerist or he's awful at it, probably the former.

Therefore, I'm inclined to take him at his word. A lot of Tories are going to be uneasy about Truss and Kwarteng's plan either out of self interest or principle. I don't think it'll make a difference in the grand scheme of things but it's nice to see a degree of self-appraisal from one of these people nonetheless.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119693685#Comment_119693685

Brexit meets reality.

fly_agaric

The focus there seems to mollifying Ireland. I suppose maybe he thinks a carrot & stick appoach may be clever. The politicians and civil servants here are quite desperate to see some olive branch extended from the UK, signs the UK-Irish relationship can go back "normal", Leo being awestruck visiting the hallowed ground of 10 Downing St. and the President having tea with the Queen (edit: the King now! takes some getting used to). Doubt these Brexit nuts have abandoned their goals at all, and what they want is not good for this country. They are ideologues, and they are not exactly young (and therefore more open to change).

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119694682#Comment_119694682

Absolutely. I hope the EU and our politicians are smart enough to realize Baker's full of it. Talk is cheap esp. when it comes to the UK. Actions matter. There's nothing wrong with the NIP, and the UK are way behind their obligations to implement it. Time to start ratcheting up the penalties.

Baker has worked as a Unix system administrator.[22] He was appointed as Chief Technical Officer at BASDA Ltd, Great Missenden in 2002, a position he held until 2007.[23] For a year from 2005 he was director of product development at CoreFiling Ltd. He was the chief architect of global financing and asset service platforms at Lehman Brothers from 2006 to 2008. He has been principal of Ambriel Consulting Ltd since 2001. He is a founding member of The Cobden Centre, an educational charity promoting Austrian economics.[24]

Surprising.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119694749#Comment_119694749

Claims he read Knuth's Art of Computer Programming. Fair play if its true - 3 volumes and 'dense' doesn't begin to describe them. I got through parts of each of them over time, but like, super-serious over-years-and-years time.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119694771#Comment_119694771

Even the Amazon reviews are dense.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119694815#Comment_119694815

Is this going off topic.

It is not Knuth we are searching for but truth. Moreover, we are not searching for a solution to the NI Protocol, it exists and is agreed in the legally binding agreement.

Any 'talk' by Baker in opening discussion with no pre-conditions is blatant BS. The agreement needs implementing as written which the UK Gov have deliberately not done. Even the physical infrastructure is not there, nor is the computer system or the manpower required. The UK Gov have refused to allow the EU access to the customs entries for goods crossing the Irish Sea - now that is deliberate obstruction.

Now some details of the implementation can be adjusted, but 'no preconditions' - pah - BS.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119694725#Comment_119694725

I don't think there's going to be any "penalties" for UK if they keep the status quo of half-implementing it with bad grace (there should be though). Too much other stuff on the EUs plate.

Can't see any new "talks" producing much either.

Truss doesn't seem like she will have any more authority as PM than Boris Johnson going by the last couple of weeks' events in the UK. If that is true, can she agree anything with the EU and then implement it? Will she still be around in a year's time? It's pretty pointless IMO.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695908#Comment_119695908

yeah, she's seeming like a busted flush already. Even so, the NIP needs to be implemented on the UK side, can't keep postponing hiring, training and deploying customs officials. The EU's brought litigation, that'll need to get ratcheted up. If it means misery for Steve Baker, *world's smallest violin plays*

Strazdas

Fascinating to see Steve Baker arguing with Frost and Hoey on Twitter. Looks like the Brexit hardcore zealots (those two, plus Ben Habib, Jamie Bryson and the DUP etc) are going to be shafted by the Tories and even by the ERG.