Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117990729#Comment_117990729

The 'concessions' or 'compromises' would not be aimed at the English Brexiteers or at keeping the Daily Express or Daily Telegraph happy. They would be aimed solely at NI traders and keeping things running smoothly for them. The English Brexiteers (Johnson, Frost et al) and their press pals can go to hell as far as the European Commission are concerned.

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117990852#Comment_117990852

I wouldn't trust them to stick to any agreement they voted on. They don't respect international treaties, that's what got things to where they are. I doubt the EU is going to go soft on the UK now after everything so far. What would really be in it for them? The brexiteers would continue to moan about them regardless and nothing would change.

The EU hasn't of the top of my head agreed to anything that hurts Ireland or the internal market. Maybe salonfire can fill in the gaps in my memory.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991163#Comment_117991163

Na, I disagree.

BoJo & co have developed a narrative that they signed the TCA under duress otherwise the HoC would continue to be hamstrung and Brexit would never "get done".

BoJo & co gambled on 2 things:-

1 That they could rush the TCA through the HoC without any objection from the Star Chamber (what an oxymoron!!) of the ERG of other Tories.

This worked perfectly.

2. That (by their non implementation of the NIP and back channel rousing of Loyalists etc) they could create a smokescreen which would give them cover to renegotiate the NIP under threat of A16.

This is also "working" to a limited extent albeit at high reputational damage to the UK and the EU won't actually renegotiate the NIP but are prepared to pare back implementation to the bare minimum.

If the EU gives the UK govt a 2nd bite at the cherry to agree a more pragmatic implementation of the NIP and they sign up to it this time they'll be fresh out of excuses and will have to own and implement it.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991163#Comment_117991163

The point is that Sefcovic is talking about helping smooth things for NI businesses. He couldn't give a flying fig about the English Brexiteers / nationalists or doing anything to help them politically. They have left the EU and have nothing to do with the union any longer.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117990729#Comment_117990729

Sigh... this has been touted for years.

"The EU are going to fold"

"The EU will throw Ireland under the bus"

Hasn't happened yet, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117990729#Comment_117990729

The EU hasn't "softened". What Sefkovich is saying has been the EU's position all along.

The entire Brexit process has been characterised by repeated episodes in which an EU official restates a long-held position and the Brexity press hails this as a collapse, a U-turn, and a victory for Boris. This is how the groundwork is laid for the UK to accept the EU position.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991205#Comment_117991205

Well, the EU has agreed that Ireland can keep its 12.5% Corporation Tax for all Irish businesses that have a turnover of less than €750 million (or is it $) which accounts for all except 56 Irish companies - some of which must be semi-state. So no bus involved there.

I think we are safe from buses heading our way while we are in the EU.

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991243#Comment_117991243

The Irish Times is saying the EU is going to present new and far reaching proposals which contradicts your suggestion there has been no change of position.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991728#Comment_117991728

The EU is going to present proposals on 'easing the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol'. All predicated and dependent on full implementation of that Protocol.

Tony Connelly on Twitter: "The European Commission will publish its proposals on easing the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol next Wednesday, RTÉ News understands." / Twitter

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991781#Comment_117991781

With France apparently still sulking over the submarine and fishing sagas the way the concessions are presented is a delicate subject according to his tweet.

fly_agaric

54and56 If the EU gives the UK govt a 2nd bite at the cherry to agree a more pragmatic implementation of the NIP and they sign up to it this time they'll be fresh out of excuses and will have to own and implement it.

No I think this is wrong.

The UK govt. will be complaining again shortly as (IMO) they have no interest whatsoever in the agreements made with the EU over NI and the negotiation/"talks" about implementation is just a show for them. The only thing they may care about is trying to stave off any EU reaction (tariffs or other sanctions) if not indefinitely than for as long as possible, so I think they are dragging this out using a "salami slicing" incremental method of wrecking NI protocol.

Frost's recent comments were interesting. He not only said the trade diversion from GB-NI to IE-NI was a big groblem he even referred to collapse in Irish trade flowing via the UK landbridge as a problem for UK post Brexit that needed solving.

IMO was very much re-declaring the UKs govt.'s increased "selfish strategic and economic interest" in both NI and Ireland (the UK "near abroad") post Brexit. They said the quiet bit out loud again.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991921#Comment_117991921

But they aren't 'concessions' Rob. They are proposals on easements already possible in the Protocol. These were always changeable subject to negotiations.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991921#Comment_117991921

Strange interpretation. Connelly describes the ongoing anger in Paris. You change this to "sulking". Do you work in PR?

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992063#Comment_117992063

Well, going by the ever more insistent noises coming out of Paris, directly (French ministers) and indirectly (British embassy reception shunned by French invitees), the balls-targeting boot has started getting pulled back for gathering momentum.

At the risk of repeating the obvious, and rightly or wrongly irrespective…Macron has an election soon, so do not expect the rethoric to be dialled down. Where that eventually goes, is anyone’s guess.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992108#Comment_117992108

I rather get the impression that Macron's histrionics are not going down that well with other EU countries.

On fishing for example Ireland faces losing up to 50% of its workforce as a result of the EU-UK deal yet Macron is the one stamping his feet.

Ireland has also handed over its long-cherished 12.5% corporate tax rate with hardly a whimper.

Personally I think there'll be a fudge on the NIP - I don't think it's in anyone's interest to turn this into a full-blown dispute.

Even Biden doesn't appear to want to get involved - he has much bigger fish to fry,if you will.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992318#Comment_117992318

In what way are they two sides of the same coin ?

Both Trump and Brexit were the result of democratic votes.

One was a vote on changing the way the UK trades with the world, the other on a rejection of Hilary Clinton as a suitable candidate for POTUS.

Trump was evicted through a democratic vote - Brexit as a subject for any future election to be fought over is dead in the water.

Johnson retains a healthy lead in the opinion polls and must be odds-on favourite to win again next time with a reduced majority.

Trump would be a disaster for the Republicans if he ran again.

I just don't see the similarities between the two except perhaps people who disliked Trump probably also didn't like Brexit.

I think Hillary Clinton having being installed as Chancellor of Queens University Belfast has certainly put the Tories under the thumb in a subtle way.

She’s going to want to protect the GFA, which she sees as a Clinton Presidential legacy, a major feather in her cap on foreign policy and has a genuinely huge personal interest in.

One of the most powerful Democratic Party people, a recent presidential candidate, a former Secretary of State and former very politically active First Lady, taking an official position in Belfast is hardly accidental and is deliciously inconvenient for Johnson et al.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992203#Comment_117992203

While the EU would obviously prefer none of this to be happening, and would jump at the chance to avoid any issues, the problems lies with the fundamental idea of the SM and CU and membership of the EU itself.

If they simply allow the UK to have a free backdoor into EU then what is the point of Ireland itself being in the EU. Simply leave and continue as before the same way that NI does?

So for the EU it isn't about sausages, or deli meats, its an idea, a concept, the very fundamental nature of the EU. Why, for example, should Ireland lose 50% of fishing and yet the UK get full access to the EU and get to circumvent the rules.

What will be called a fudge is actually a realigning of processes within the deal framework to take account of unforeseen, or possibly misunderstood, issues.

I can certainly see that sausages going from Tesco warehouse in Manchester to NI will be exempt, but of course new system and processes will have to be put in place to ensure that any exempt products are accounted for and if not sold within Tesco NI stole are destroyed or returned to UK. This is a massive about of additional bureacracy, but the UK won't ever mention it, business will just be expected to adapt.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992415#Comment_117992415

The Democrat Party avoids the Clintons like the plague.

Hilary was widely discredited for losing the election to Trump and Bill is a walking scandal waiting to happen.

The murky financial affairs of the Clinton Foundation is avidly kept under the wraps.

The idea tha Clinton as Chancellor of Belfast Uni - a ceremonial role that carries no great status - is in any way inconvenient for the UK is nonsense.

Do you think when Biden was setting up Aukus with Johnson and the Australians behind closed doors that Clinton,either of them,loomed large ?

I think Aukus and NI have very little to do with eachother and the US is quite capable of having multiple agendas simultaneously.

It is a massive error to assume the US can’t put the U.K. under pressure in one area of policy while pursuing different agendas in relation to China.

It has brought the U.K. subtly to heel before in NI and not so subtly during the Cod Wars with Iceland that nearly cost them a hugely strategic NATO air base that was fundamental to North American missile defence.

The U.K. has a lot of history engaging in self destructive, tabloid driven fights with neighbouring countries over fish and chips. I think the US is well aware of this.

The Johnson Government and Brexit also absolutely wreaks of the same kind of politics as the Trump administration.

You are hugely misunderstanding how US politics work if you think Clinton is somehow an outcast in the Democrats. She’s controversial to some, but that’s very different to what you’re describing. She’s still very much able to move within an inner circle that’s accessible really only to former office holders.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992456#Comment_117992456

Sigh. It's Democratic party - only GQP'ers use that term (and fraudsters like Fox news.)

HRC being in charge of some pokey Uni in NI is irrelevant to anything, I do agree with you on that. Nor are Clintons actively influencing legislation anymore.

I'd strongly suggest you join 2021; Bill Clinton's an eminence grise now. Both Clintons raise lots of money for the Democratic party and are well regarded at present, especially Bill. Yes, Hilary should be blamed for the loss, and she lost. Oh well. Like I said, join 2021. If you have Conspiracies involving the Clinton foundation, take them to the Conspiracy Theory forum where such belong. Not the Brexit thread FFS.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992507#Comment_117992507

All American politicians use NI for the optics.They always have done.

But in the grand scheme of things Ireland north and south is an irrelevance for the US.

It's also an issue that both the EU and the UK want to see dealt with as quickly and efficiently as possible.

And Hilary Clinton is a busted flush politically.

Whatever is left of Biden's mental capacity is now almost exclusively focused on China and his mounting domestic problems.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992495#Comment_117992495

What is fascist about a referendum deciding on a country largest-ever political mandate ?

It is literally the very opposite of fascism.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992203#Comment_117992203

Macron is backed on Brexit by ‘old Europe’ EU member states, less so by the club meds and eastern European ones.

Your points about Ireland’s fishing and corporate tax rate are noted, but have little of anything to do with France itself, past or present.

Besides, Ireland was never going to play the bad cop in the Brexit context, and cannot be for the foreseeable future. That’s not a criticism, by the way, simply a recognition of its geopolitical imperatives, to be assessed in the broader context of European unity of the 27 pre-2021 and currently.

But someone needed, and still needs, to be that bad cop, lest the Brexiteer rethoric get a completely free pass on its messaging and, much more importantly nowadays, behaviour.

That this can serve a dual-purpose for Macron with his election campaign, is just happenstance: were GB not consistently acting the maggot with the NIP *and more* he’d not have that particular platform to PR on.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992621#Comment_117992621

So what you're saying is Macron and Lord Frost occupy the same role as bad cop for their respective organisations.

I agree.

They're both going through the motions for their home audiences but behind the scenes I'd exirctban enormous amount of diplomacy is taking place on both sides to reach a solution.

Hopefully.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992643#Comment_117992643

Labour lost the 2019 election by a landslide precisely because they chose to ignore the Brexit referendum result and attempted to reverse it.

That's democracy not fascism in action.

It's also why Starmer doesn't have a hope in hell.

Labour will in the election after next but only if they have someone like Dan Jarvis leading them.

Brexit as an election issue is dead and buried

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992643#Comment_117992643

Referendums are only ever meant to be a mere tool of the democratic system : never, ever to overrule the Parliament or replace it. Once you go down that route (as the Brexiteers did), you're heading down the road to fascism.

For example, no Irish referendum can be used to force the Government or Dáil to do things it is flatly opposed to (as it is the Government itself who proposes the legislation wording). What Cameron did - "We will do whatever you force us to do" - flew in the face of parliamentary democracy.

looksee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992576#Comment_117992576

Nothing, if it is an actual, properly run referendum on clearly stated options. It was more a poorly worded, uninformed government opinion poll with one side largely - no, entirely - based on lies and misleading ideas.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992554#Comment_117992554

Having actually lived and voted in the USA, I would wholeheartedly disagree with you on that. There’s a huge Irish connected vote. Many of them aren’t that directly connected with Ireland but there’s a huge sentimentality about the place that drives a connection in a way that very few other communities have and it ties deeply into politics on both sides of the House.

It very much chimes and echoes with how America sees itself too. It’s a land of diasporas that have become a nation. Yeah, there’s nativist Trumpish, pull up the ladder and punch down stuff too and there always was, but the Irish American story plugs straight into a very broadly American narrative.

The ties with the British military are very much just strategic stuff and also the US has a tendency to see itself as omnipotent. So the U.K. etc are “allies” in the sense that they give some legitimacy to campaigns. That’s about all. There isn’t the same degree of cultural connection with Britain and that’s just fact.

The other thing I will tell you is Americans appreciate straight talking. They are direct. They don’t beat around the bush and they do not spin. They can be polarised, and direct to the point of being somewhat naïve at times, and aspects of them might be mad as a box of hair in some areas of politics, but they are direct.

What goes down VERY badly is spin, failing to honour agreements, and polished duplicity. Unfortunately, that’s entirely the impression the U.K. is beaming out at the moment. Sideshow Bob springs to mind.