Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992651#Comment_117992651

As a very simplistic reduction, yes.

But, and course, there is a fundamental difference: Macron leans his bad policemanship on binding commitments wilfully negotiated and consented between the parties to the WA/TCA/NIP. Frost leans his bad policemanship on shameless bulls**t.

In that context, whilst Frost’s audience is indeed domestic, Macron is not: the ‘hard man’ act has some degree of usefulness for his domestic politics, but that is useful coincidence: his target audience is Europe-wide first (including British) and beyond (US, AU, RU all involved with UK to some extent or other).

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992811#Comment_117992811

Cameron saying the referendum result could not be overturned or revisited was profoundly undemocratic. A decision that cannot be reversed by the same people who voted for it is by its very nature the opposite of being a democratic one.

Bear in mind that from a non U.K. standpoint, or even from a U.K. point of view a couple of decades or so ago, the Tories have moved very significantly to the right. They’re not really recognisable as the pragmatic, centre right party they once were.

I think because we are so exposed to U.K. coverage, and experience the day to day machinations via access to British media, we tend to not have noticed how big a shift has happened.

From Macron’s perspective, the Tories now very much resemble Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement national (RN).

The last thing he needs is to give wind to that kind of movement and have it blow back into France, but also you’re seeing a lot of centrist European leaders and parties placing clear distance between themselves and anything to do with English/British nationalism.

The Tories very much absorbed UKIP, the Brexit Party and so on, if not their members their politics.

The U.K. is in a very strange place at the moment. You’ve a lot of things coalescing around Brexit that have more to do with other parallel agendas like extreme deregulation, various socially right wing agendas and so on. There’s been a lot of imagined mandates for all sorts of radical change that I’m not really sure anyone voted for. I mean even looking at the pre Brexit leave campaigns, they were far milder than what has been delivered. Most of them were leaning towards a leave the EU while having very little change of practical realities.

They had successfully divorced a political ideology about symbolic sovereignty from the real world practicalities of EU membership, claiming anyone who raised practical concerns was engaging in fear mongering. That worked, politically and now they appear to be delivering a hardline Brexit that from what I can see was not what most believed they were voting for.

The problem now is you’ve a population who’ve an expectation of either business as usual or significant benefits, and instead they’re getting hardship and problems. There’s only so much of this can be blamed on COVID and I think you’re beginning to see patience wearing thin.

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992683#Comment_117992683

The 2016 Brexit referendum process was fundamentally flawed. It was a disgrace.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992718#Comment_117992718

Well actually it didn't fly in the face of parliamentary democracy because it was parliament which still had to vote through the legislation to enact the referendum.And if you remember parliament and the courts very nearly managed to prevent it.

The referendum itslf wasn't binding on Parliament merely on the party which promised to abide by the outcome.Some in the party chose not to and they paid for it with the loss of their seats.

It was also the first referendum the UK had over its membership of the EU.

fly_agaric

Not sure if Frost is the "hard man" or "bad cop". Don't the Tory party want NI protocol in the bin and lit on fire yesterday? It's just fear (of the EU and the US response) that holds Johnson/Frost back so they are working at it slowly

I imagine there is a spectrum of opinion among the EU leaders with Macron seeming to be on the "it's passed time to stop appeasing the UK" end. (edit: I also imagine/expect) Ireland would be on the very opposite pole because of fear of what will happen to us when the balloon goes up (we are exposed over NI border and we could be specifically chosen for the UK retaliation because of our vulnerable position and still strong trade links with UK).

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992972#Comment_117992972

In what way ?

It was a simple Leave/Remain vote on membership of the EU and it produced the largest democratic mandate in UK history. I very much regret the outcome of the vote as I think it will impact on Ireland long term but I'm not sure I'd call it a disgrace.Ireland seems content to use referenda to decide issues such as abortion and gay marriage so I see no difference in Cameron trying to use one to solve the issue of Europe that has plagued UK politics for decades.It just didn't turn out like he expected.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993087#Comment_117993087

Because, without completely treading old ground, the vote simplified a process that was anything but. The issue was fundamentally misrepresented by those pushing to Leave. And being as it was so tight in the end, there was a duty of care of the government to chart the best path out with the least disruption to UK society and economy. They haven't; quite the opposite in many respects. Choosing emotive notions of "Sovereigny" over pragmatism.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993087#Comment_117993087

"Who wants to go abroad this summer?"

"Me!"

"Me, too!"

"Ok, we're going to volunteer and clear landmines in Cambodia."

"What?"

"You said you wanted to go abroad. So we're going abroad."

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993141#Comment_117993141

I think there was a fair degree of misrepresentation on both sides, not all of it plastered on the side of a red bus.There was never going to be an easy way of extracting the country from trading arrangements built up over decades but the vote was a start.The 2019 election disaster for Labour and the continuing lead over them by the Tories suggests to me there's not much buyer's remorse.

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993087#Comment_117993087

We have a referendum commission which manages the process. Also, our referendums are never political but ask serious questions about our constitution and our society. Cameron's referendum was a deeply political ploy held using a crude and simplistic process that was unmanaged. And so the liars won. Not one single Leave voter knew what they were voting for. If you think the 2016 Brexit referendum was an example of true democracy, then you need to educate yourself on referendums.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993218#Comment_117993218

What "misrepresentation" did remain spread ?

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993087#Comment_117993087

The government offered a binary vote to an ill-informed electorate on a very complex topic. There was no discussion or clarification on the form of exit (leave the simgle market? Leave the Customs Union? Leave the various EU structures that benefit the UK?). What kind of deal were they going to go for? Norway? Canada? WTO basis?

There was no discussion or clarification on the timeline. Given that there were over 40 years of EU laws in place, would it be prudent to complete the exit in phases or in one big jump?

There was no discussion or clarification on the benefits of leaving as opposed to remaining. What exactly would the UK gain by leaving and can these benefits be measured?

As it was an advisiory referendum, should the government simply heed the result or actually act on it? Would a simple majority suffice and if it was a narrow win one way or the other, what might happen? What about the nations other than England? It was quite likely that NI and Sco would oppose an exit. Where was the discussion on their view?

The UK became polarised and left wide open to manipulation. It has been shown that external forces manipulated the decision but because it was a non-binding referendum, the government didn't need to take action (not that they wanted to!).

As you say, it was a simple vote - far too simple.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993225#Comment_117993225

It is simply stretching credulity to insist that every single one of the 17.4 million people who voted for leave didn't know what they were voting for after a long campaign when every aspect of Brexit was dissected and discussed endlessly in the media.

But did one side present their arguments more effectively ? Absolutely.

If voters felt they were deceived by the outcome and how Brexit has unfolded so far why do the Tories retain an 8% lead over Labour in the polls this week.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993218#Comment_117993218

Don't "both sides" the conversation, there's no equivalence here; only one side of the debate had a result that involved throwing a grenade into every walk of life, economy and institutional structure in the UK. A vote to Remain literally upheld the status quo, there was no risk to be applied, whether or not the arguments were misrepresented. Nothing would have changed. EU membership is much more than a bunch of "trading arrangements" - that's fairly reductionist.

Whether or not the public should be ultimately held accountable for making an uniformed decision is another debate; but it can't be seriously argued that the referendum itself was held in Good Faith - or that the major proponents of such a seismic change to the UK conducted themselves honestly.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993218#Comment_117993218

In what way did the Remain side misrepresent themselves and how did they compare to the large amount of misrepresentation by the Leave side?

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993367#Comment_117993367

Where has it been shown that external forces manipulated the outcome ?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993370#Comment_117993370

None of the 17.4m knew what they were voting for because it was impossible to know when there was no defined treaty or plan.

Also one side didn't "present their arguments more effectively" they lied through their teeth and spread it using illegal money which the other side did not do

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993045#Comment_117993045

The only way Cameron should have held a referendum on EU membership is if he had already made the decision to leave and put 'that' decision to the electorate for ratification. Holding one on EU membership and giving the public the option to force the UK government to leave the EU against its will was an absolutely disastrous decision.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993370#Comment_117993370

They still don't know what Brexit they want so how in the world did any of the 17.4 million know what they were voting for 5 years ago? Boris was reelected to get his Brexit plan and already opposes his own Brexit plan a few months later so I am calling bull on anyone knowing what they were getting 5 years ago.

I would argue Labour's issue is that they are not pro remain at the moment so it can't be seen as a pro/anti Brexit thing

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993529#Comment_117993529

PM/FMs should only hold referendums in good faith if they believe their is a need for change. Holding one and then having the government asking you to vote against it is pointless and very dangerous as many referendums become protest votes. Not too bad if the people protest vote to keep the status quo against the proposed government backed change but not the other way round

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993045#Comment_117993045

They had a previous referendum over EU membership.

They had a referendum about 1975 to stay in the EU. It was carried obviously, but by 67%. Much bigger result than the 2016 one.

listermint

Why are we back here again. That poster can quite happily be pointed to the start of this thread to find the answers it's not a debate. It's regurgitated stuff that has been hashed over and proven to be false numerous times against numerous 'new' posters .

We are well past that now and into the phase of buyers remorse. You only have to look to the dwindling self confessed brexiteers, the banning of the term brexit and no one rushing out to defend it.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993671#Comment_117993671

Mod: Agreed. We don't need to go over the referendum debate again. Back to current developments in the UK-EU relationship please.

Padraig178

SNIP.

But back to today's EU-UK relationship I'm not as gloomy about the NIP as some. I think there's a willingness on both sides to make the thing work whatever the public pronouncements.I could be wrong though.

ancapailldorcha

A post has been removed and another edited. Back on topic, please.

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993783#Comment_117993783

You are wrong. There has been very little moves by the UK to make it work. They have not shared information they said they would and they have not built the infrastructure to make it work. They also delayed and dithered and made a big deal about EU observers and where they are allowed to work and have been making things difficult and have made no effort to implement or make the NIP work.

I think the fact you think the UK has made an effort says a lot.

Snickers Man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117993671#Comment_117993671

I couldn't agree more. I was appalled by Brexit, and most of the good friends I still have in Britain having lived there for 10 years were and are ardent Remainers. I despise the gloating, xenophobic commentary that comes out of the pro-Brexit side, especially those who claim to be representing the "working class" as if the outcome is likely to benefit them in any way.

But......it happened. It happened in accordance with EU rules. We all agreed, with the Lisbon Treaty, that any member can leave at any time, using an agreed process and by taking the decision to do so any way they like. The British people have made up their mind and clearly don't want to change it. We have to accept that they are extremely unlikely to consider doing so for a generation at least. And by that stage, who knows what will be the issues exercising the world?

The bleating about "misleading" ad campaigns and dishonest sloganeering remind me of a passage in one of the few even partially cerebral books about football, Nick Hornby's Fever Pitch. For those unfamiliar with it, it is an episodic account of the major events in the author's life told with reference to contemporary events in the progress of the team he supported fanatically, namely Arsenal. In one of its best passages he relates how the departure of his idol and one of Arsenal's greatest players of the 1970s, Liam Brady coincided with his long-term girlfriend dumping him for another man. Both events caused misery, disbelief and instigated a long passage combining hope and expectation to the effect that both had been mistakes, the leavers would see the error of their ways and would return to his welcoming bosom.

Neither did.

In response Arsenal tried numerous players, with varying degrees of success--or lack of it--in Brady's old position and Hornby had a string of relationships "some serious, some less so, all of them doomed by the fact they were not the person they replaced"

As for Brady, although for years Hornby was certain he would see the error of his ways and return to Arsenal the only time he did so was to play a one-off testimonial and the next time he visited Highbury, he was playing for West Ham and scored a thumping goal against his old club.

"We never did replace him satisfactorily," he said "but we found different people with different qualities; it took me a long time to realize that this is a good a way of coping with loss as any".

Too true. It won't do British Remainers any good to have outsiders bleating at them to hang on in there until the rest of their countrymen see the error of their own ways. That will only serve to isolate them in an increasingly divided and fractious country and have them labelled "traitors" and "Quislings" by those who think that Britain won Two World Wars all by themselves. That won't do them any good.

We have to find new ways of dealing with the new state of affairs between our two countries, and especially ways to preserve the peace settlement in N Ireland. Without succumbing to those enthusiasts for Empire who think that they can unilaterally rip up an international treaty guaranteed by some of the most important countries in the world.

Difficult but doable.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117994306#Comment_117994306

I'd disagree that we have to do anything tbh other than deal with NI. And continue to navigate away from UK business towards the continent and abroad. If the UK want to resolve relationships by all means do. We shouldn't do an ounce of heavy lifting.

Snickers Man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117994400#Comment_117994400

Which, as a "new way of dealing with the new situation between our two countries" is "as good a way as any." :)