Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117980446#Comment_117980446

But a 'fail to oppose Brexit' strategy was surely always predicated on the idea of the public voting for it and it not going particularly badly once the UK is out. What happens though if Brexit is a big disaster and is causing havoc across the economy? This is where all bets are off : what might have seemed a sensible political strategy in October 2020, may not be one now, not with food and fuel shortages (and the threat of even worse coming down the tracks).

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117980361#Comment_117980361

Give him a chance? Seriously? He has had 18 months, during which Johnson made a tragic mess of the pandemic and Brexit is increasingly, and obviously, a disaster on all fronts. Yet, Starmer's approval rating is worse than Johnson's and the Tories lead in the polls.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117980629#Comment_117980629

Yes, give him a chance. There's nothing he can do outside No. 10. We all know why Brexit is a trainwreck but undoing it involves beginning accession negotiations with Brussels and there's zero chance of that happening in the near future.

ancapailldorcha

As an aside, how to the Irish media report on Brexit? I almost exclusively consume UK media for obvious reasons. I just saw the following tweet of a clip from France 24 (in English for some reason) and it's a lot more direct than I'm used to:

https://twitter.com/SloughForEU/status/1445437797859577857

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117980709#Comment_117980709

France 24 has a 24hr English language news channel. It's down with the news channels on most boxes.

As for Irish media I was listening to a Tory MP debate the crisis on Irish radio yesterday and you could tell he wasn't used to just being called a straight out liar and a Fk up

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117980665#Comment_117980665

He could challenge this populist PM and his populist government on the mistakes they have made. But he doesn't. Anyway, the argument is becoming circular so we'll agree to differ!

fash

Kristian Niemietz, NHS privatisation chronicler (@K_Niemietz) Tweeted:

"The recent U-turn on emergency visas to ‘save Christmas’ [...] demonstrates how the UK’s new centrally planned immigration system is a sluggish, bureaucratic downgrade from EU free movement."

https://t.co/H5LWyUaaNp https://twitter.com/K_Niemietz/status/1445434576206278657?s=20

On the unresponsive & inefficient UK immigration system as a replacement for freedom of movement.

dublin49

Starmer's main difficulty with Brexit is if he attacks the outcomes of Brexit he will easily be portrayed as siding with the Europeans against his own,no matter how ludicrous this claim would be.

I do think Starmer needs to outline a better Brexit,one that reflects the close vote,Theresa Mays deal mark 2,offer the voters a softer brexit and see if Johnston sticks to his guns and defends the current mess.

Surely that way he gets the remain vote and all the soft leavers and those hard leavers that realise the mistake they have made.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117980936#Comment_117980936

I think he needs to sell to the British public the basic truth that some degree of alignment with Brussels will be necessary. Unfortunately, things in the UK will have to worsen in order to create the political will to do so. Until then, criticising Brexit before it's demonstrably and catastrophically failed on its own terms will just come across as an attempt to resurrect the tedium of late 2019.

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117980973#Comment_117980973

Well, no. In a poll from Sept 24-26 on Brexit, 52% believe Brexit has been a failure and 36% believe it is a success. Amongst Labour voters, 71% believe Brexit has been a failure and 23% believe it is a success.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981110#Comment_117981110

Maybe so but this means nothing if they're planning to vote Johnson in again in 2023.

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981268#Comment_117981268

If Starmer were to attack Johnson for Brexit's flaws then maybe more people would think again about voting Tory. Five months ago, 40% thought that the government was handling Brexit well while 49% thought the government was handling Brexit badly. Today, 31% think the government is handling Brexit well while 59% think the government is handling it badly. It is time for Starmer to stop cowering and call out Brexit for what it is.

Joe_ Public

I think you have to bear in mind that labours entire election strategy has been, and will almost certainly continue to be, underpinned by the imperative to wrest back the lost northern seats. Sounding off about brexit just does not chime with that plan so i wouldn't expect to hear much beyond vague platitudes about "making it work" etc.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981317#Comment_117981317

They think the government is handling Brexit badly because of the shortages. What Starmer says makes no difference. The country is split when it comes to Brexit and Starmer has his coalition to hold together.

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981430#Comment_117981430

What Starmer says would make a huge difference. To point out Johnson's mistakes would influence how voters think. The gap between perceived government Brexit competence has gone from 9% to 28% in five months. Many people are disillusioned with Labour precisely because Starmer refuses to talk about Brexit and refuses to lead the opposition. His fearful lack of assertiveness allows Johnson to appear dominant and is why Johnson, incredibly, is more popular than Starmer.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981489#Comment_117981489

I don't think so. All eyes are on the PM as a result of the pandemic. Starmer's pointed out plenty of Johnson's mistakes on his handling of covid and it has made no difference.

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981412#Comment_117981412

I am convinced that this 'Blue Labour' needle they are trying to thread isn't working at all and if they were to hold an election today the lack of BAME turnout would shock a lot of (Labour) people who have taken this section of their core vote for granted. For context BAME are 1 in 5 of Labour voters and can be key to anything up to 100 constituencies.

I say today because there is a chance that come the election the UK regresses to the point where the vote is motivated more against Johnson than for Starmer. The last two US elections had this in varying degrees. I don't see Biden beating George W in 2004 for example.

I agree with Professor Moriarty that Starmer is trying too hard to keep his head below the parapet. But come the run up to the election none of that will matter. Starmer, and his advisors, think writing for the Sun will mean he won't get murdered over how he eats a bacon sandwich, this is another shock they are in for. Unfortunately for Sir Keith he's far more bland than blue.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117978078#Comment_117978078

BBC is being eviscerated slowly. Removing the free licenses for the OAP's, sticking Tory donors in charge, that sort of thing.

I'm still worried that they won't try to hobble Channel 4 somehow, too. And the odd thing is that ITN do their news.

Channel 4 is govt owned and all programming is bought in. Changing it's charter to be more profitable / less restricted or selling off to venture capital would not be a good thing.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981489#Comment_117981489

That's a very interesting point. By trying to appeal to the Red Wall charmers and doing nothing to offend them, it's making him seem weak and unassertive and actually lacking in any leadership qualities (a real leader would say 'to hell with the Red Wall, I'm going to speak my mind on just how bad Brexit is').

Notice how Johnson had no problem saying 'F--- business' and didn't even deny it when challenged in an interview.

Podge_irl

I think it is worth remembering that there is almost zero chance of an early election and thus Starmer is working on a 4 year strategy here. I've found him generally disappointing, but he is trying to build a Labour party that can compete in an election in 4 years not now because it doesn't matter a damn how popular either leader is at the moment.

joeysoap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981751#Comment_117981751

C4 is the best news channel ( by a mile)

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981871#Comment_117981871

Risky though....he could be replaced as leader long before the four years are up.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981909#Comment_117981909

Party members may elect a leader, but it's the parliamentary party that ditches one. And the Labour parliamentary party, like Starmer, wants to win the next election, and knows it isn't imminent. So it makes sense for them to give him some space; if they ditch him now, it just makes the party look chaotic and panicky, and they know this. And there's no reason to suppose that his successor could succeed where Milliband, Corbyn and Starmer all failed.

The real test comes as the election gets closer, if Labour still looks to be on the nose, poll-wise. The next general election is due in April 2024. An earlier election is possible but unlikely because (a) the government has a thumping majority, and (b) they will be anxious to put as much distance between the worst of the Covid pandemic and the election as they possibly can. Local elections are due in much of England (though not London) in May 2023; I would say that if Labour does poorly in those Starmer will start sweating.

murphaph

The people that voted for it need to taste the Brexit medicine for a while before they will realise it's actually poison. If it's a very bad winter then Starmer can shift a gear and start agitating for an early election based on Brexit being a calamity. It's pretty bad, but not quite a calamity, yet.

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117981751#Comment_117981751

I never knew C4 was government owned. I always thought it was private. Especially because news and content always seemed to me to stand apart from BBC and ITV.. Every day is a school day.

Peregrinus

I think the obvious line for Starmer to take is (a) Brexit is what the people voted for and despite much debate there has never at any point since been a consensus in favour of remaining/re-entry, and a Labour government isn't going to revisit that question, but (b) the Tories have made a complete hames of Brexit from the outset, at every step along the way, and (c) Labour can rescue the UK from the Tory Brexit and get things back on track by being less ideological, less delusional, less antagonistic and less stupid.

It's not a bad pitch, but it has its dangers, the obvious one being that the Tories will try to paint Labour as crypto-remainers — "they say they accept Brexit but, really, they are trying to covertly overturn it". This has been the ultras' line all along - anyone who is insufficiently zealous for the revolution is a counter-revolutionary.

So, I think Starmer's tactic may be to wait until the ultras have completed the job of thoroughly discrediting themselves, by continuing to defend a hard Brexit whose calamity becomes undeniable, and by becoming ever more shrill in their denunciations of those who question an idea that obviously needs questioning. The longer Labour doesn't attack the fundamental Brexit proposition, and the more untenable the defence of this particular version of Brexit becomes, the easier it become for Labour to say "Brexit could be better done, you know. We could do it better." And the easier it becomes for the voters at large to accept that at face value, and to discount hysterical Tory claims about a secret Remainer conspiracy to overturn Brexit.

That, I think, is his strategy on Brexit. He wants to minimise the chance of Labour Brexiters being peeled off by Tories claiming with any credibility that Labour is a remainer party. On the other hand, he wants to appeal to voters who think the Tories have made a hames of Brexit.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117982090#Comment_117982090

A lot of people are probably the same. It makes sense as Channel 4 isn't a political football like the BBC.

Joe_ Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117982152#Comment_117982152

Yes, i think they are certainly alienating voters, but that is inbuilt into the calculation they are making. The imperative is not to do or say anything that might further enrage voters in the pro brexit constituencies and if that deters voters in London or elsewhere, then so be it. They believe it's still a fair risk and many of them subscribe to the old blair/Clinton mantra of "they have no place else to go." Even as the green and lib dem polling figures continue to show up well.

I know people look at brexit polling figures and question this, but somebody saying brexit is not going badly is not quite the same as saying its all a terrible mistake and needs to be reversed. They won't all blame johnson for it and given Starmer is all about the focus groups, i think they are clued into this and have concluded staying clear of it as much as possible is the best way forward. Personally i think it stinks, but I believe thats where they're at anyway.

Leroy42

In their attempt to avoid having to ever even mention Brexit they seem to be completely incapable of rising any issues at all.

The Tories have just raised income tax to the highest level for years and hardly a peep out of Labour. Yeah, they made some points but fail to land any real blows.

Tories have been shown to be giving contracts to their mates. Nothing. U turn after u turn on immigration, fuel shortages. empty supermarket shelves. And yet Labour are having no meaningful impact.

That is down to Starmer who seems to have no real policies. He doesn't appear to be angry, he isn't urging that its time to get rid of the awful tories. He doesn't seem to have any defining issue, and purpose.

Winning back Northern Red Wall seats? That won't be enough. And if he is too scared to put himself out why would anyone vote for him.

In relation to Brexiteers, what do they see as the end game in all of this. I get that they are simply trying to get from one week to the next, making decisions off the cuff that start to contradict themselves as they simply try to avoid the latest crisis being blamed on them. Surely they can see that there is no way any of this is simply going to go away, that the massive probability, and increasingly becoming closer to a certainty, is that things will get worse well before they ever have a chance to get better.

Is it simply about short term self preservation with no heed of the future and the role they are playing? Maybe I just have a different way of looking at things.

rock22

Perigrinus wrote

"(a) Brexit is what the people voted for and despite much debate there has never at any point since been a consensus in favour of remaining/re-entry, and a Labour government isn't going to revisit that question, but (b) the Tories have made a complete hames of Brexit from the outset, at every step along the way, and (c) Labour can rescue the UK from the Tory Brexit and get things back on track by being less ideological, less delusional, less antagonistic and less stupid."

I think this presupposes that Brexit is done. But Brexit will never be done. As a third country, the UK will have to continually adjust it position to match the EU. And that might often mean negotiations on a regular basis. At the moment, Starmer is offering the electorate nothing special, only his personality. And the British people have made it clear that they like Johnson and Starmer is unlikely to change that.

The Laboutr party need to be pointing out the failures of Brexit. Starmer, and the Labour party, are not even holding Johnson to account as well as the Andrew Marr (BBC last weekend) and that is saying something.

As a Lawyer , Starmer knows the value and need for international treaties , and yet he is reluctant to support the Northern Irish protocol, again taking a middle of the road position.

it is impossible to fix Brexit without confronting the more extreme Brexit positions of voters . And Starmer has shown that he is unwilling to really challenge the voters in the north who supported Brexit.