Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796732#Comment_117796732

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796740#Comment_117796740

Such has been the perversion of the British political conversations, I'd go one further and semi seriously suggest there will be those that claim it's really a good thing - saving the great unwashed from a little bit of junk food in their diet.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796621#Comment_117796621

No idea. Some polls yesterday had the Tories up 3 points to 42 percent.

It's off the wall. Evidently people are simply not reading anything or just simply don't care.

The Tories pretty much have free reign to do absolutely anything they like.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796996#Comment_117796996

It's a tricky one as the right wing press campaigned for Brexit and hated on the EEC / EU for decades. To say they are compromised in reporting on this story would be putting it mildly.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796996#Comment_117796996

Trump showed there's a successful path in running a political movement as eternal campaign mode.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117797047#Comment_117797047

Yes, their entire political and media landscape leaves them wide open to a corrupt takeover. No constitution, a failed FPTP system, a corrupt press owned by right wing offshore billionaires, BBC terrified of the Tories. There are very few safeguards built in to protect the country.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796219#Comment_117796219

Yes, that's the uncomfortable irony. Products for sale or use in the GB market (not UK as NI will still operate under the CE mark as part of the TCA/WA) will have to adhere the the EU CE mark and any amendments to same made by the EU which Westminster will have absolutely zero influence over. They'll just have to grin (or more likely shout their frustration at the EU imposing more pointless bureaucracy on Brexit Britain via headlines in the Daily Express and fight them on the beaches type orations by Mark Francois and the like.

Delicious.

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796779#Comment_117796779

Oakshott was already at that last week

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796746#Comment_117796746

It’s a combination of factors, but ultimately they all link back to Brexit, with Covid supercharging (fast-tracking, really) the issue since last year.

The main factors are-

1.UK drivers too few/too old

2.EU27 drivers moving back to better-paying / -perk’d jobs in the EU27 post-Brexit (never more so than since Covid started Mar-Apr 2020, but earlier changes to UK tax also played a big role)

3.EU27 drivers without a UK-EU27 return load, not able to make an EU27-UK trip profitable through cabotage whilst in the UK (since 01/01/21)

4.HGV pay/skill levels well short of post-Brexit UK PBS/work visa thresholds (and the UK gvt’s complete ideological opposition to doing anything about it)

I read somewhere that 35,000 Romanian HGV drivers went back to the Continent since Brexit (not sure if that means 2016 or 2019 or…).

Most observers without an ‘in’, are also very far from seeing the full picture: for every headlining story about empty supermarket shelf, Nando, McD, etc., there’s umpteen SMEs in the British economy background with *worse* logistics (and therefore productivity, sales and profitability-) problems, because they haven’t got the Sainsbury’s, Nando or McD chequebook and logistics industry/volume pull factor.

Full-fat Brexit hasn’t happened yet, as you rightly note. This problem will get far worse then.

ltd440

Maybe covered by point number 3 in ambro25 post, but the drop off in trucks heading to/from Ireland using the uk landbrige that would also move uk goods around the uk has decreased massively.

dublin49

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/24/brexit-failure-remainers-shelves-empty-eu

Rafael Behr best writer bar none on the Brits and brexit,

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117797570#Comment_117797570

5 - IR35 , new tax rules on self employed / contractors means the old days of working long term for one client are gone.

6 - Home Office. Polish driver who had followed the rules was deported when he arrived for an interview in the UK.

7 - Drivers to / from the EU don't get paid for empty loads and since you can't pick up stuff on the return or en-route like you used to do ...

8 - Pay isn't much different from Aldi, hours are better and you don't have the responsibility for 20 plus tonnes of consumer goods or whatnot.

9 - UK govt have added an extra hour to how long drivers can drive per day. Reputable companies are protesting on safety ground. Dis reputable ones may be tempted to 'encourage' workers to keep going.

Anecdotal - but one Romanian driver said he'd make more money back in Romania and wouldn't have to jump through all the hoops.

Best comment was on the lines of - Brexit was engineered by Nigel Farage to prevent more milkshakes being thrown on him. :pac:

Capt'n Midnight

Did someone mention turkeys yet ?

Not enough turkeys for Christmas due to Brexit, also if there were enough HGV drivers there'd still be a shortage of chickens.

The poultry industry employs more than 40,000 people but there are nearly 7,000 vacancies, the BPC said. The shortage means some chicken producers have reduced the size of their product ranges and cut weekly output by up to 10%, the letter said. The supply of turkey is down by a similar amount but could decline by as much as 20% at Christmas as firms fear they will not be able to draft in the usual number of seasonal workers.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117800006#Comment_117800006

I didn't realise the driver would not get paid if they didn't have a back load, drawback of being self employed, the hours allowed to drive are fairly miserable, not nice getting stuck 50 or 60 km from your destination having to watch TV rather than going home to your family etc,if you can't stay alert those hours there is something else going on.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796194#Comment_117796194

This is a major admission that the British empire is well and truly over and that the UK will forever be rule takers from bigger international blocks like the EU. It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic that they even thought that they could force every supplier to pay extra to certify against the new UK standards rather than simply deciding not to bother exporting their goods to the UK anymore

This wasn't so bad when the UK were at the top table helping to draft those rules. But Brexit means Brexit after all...

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796621#Comment_117796621

For a lot of brexiteers, they could turn up at McDonalds and be told the only thing on the menu is raw gherkins, and they'd think this is fine because at least the menu isn't completely empty

But the general public will grow weary of these inconveniences sooner rather than later. Hopefully they react in a positive way rather than over-react or doubling down on anti EU sentiment

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117800773#Comment_117800773

Was anybody bar the brexit fanatics ever in any doubt this would be the situation?

druss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117800807#Comment_117800807

The fanatics have had a lot of control over the situation though.

See also chemical authorisations. Opening assumption from UK industry (and indeed UK public sector) was that Brexit would unfortunately reduce UK direct influence, but obviously the UK would continue to use the REACH chemical database. To do otherwise would be superflous, ridiculously expensive etc etc.

Except it quickly became clear that UK politicians disagreed. And wanted to set up a completely new authorisation system and have a beefed up national agency replace the functions carried out by the European Chemical Agency. All attempts to persuade on economic or rational grounds completely failed.

And then you had the approach advocated by Brexit purists like Daniel Hannon, who wanted to scrap regulation entirely so that workers could go back to working with raw carcinogenic substances like in the glory days of Empire.

For now, the approach is this.

"The key principles of the EU REACH Regulation have been retained. The new domestic regime is known as UK REACH.

As of 1 January 2021 the UK REACH and the EU REACH regulations operate independently from each other. Companies that supply and purchase substances, mixtures or articles to and from the EU/EEA/Northern Ireland and Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) will need to ensure that the relevant duties are met under both pieces of legislation."

So , basically the same principles, but loads of extra paperwork. And all the costs associated with establishing a domestic regime to do much the same thing.

Even where the fanatics don't entirely get their way, they must be placated. So UKCA is only postponed, not cancelled. UK REACH is established, but isn't really substantive. Neither is seen as a positive by industry and (whether the political ideals ultimately proceed or not), all of has cost money.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117802811#Comment_117802811

It's obvious from much of the commentary on social media that the majority of Leave voters hadn't a clue what they were voting. Fell for a load of cheap populist slogans, without understanding the consequences of them or what Brexit would actually entail.

Cameron was some optimist - failing to understand the English public's capacity to mess up. He was probably thinking to himself 'they couldn't possibly be so stupid as to actually vote for all this nonsense'.

.42.

English people can step up to fill the HGV driver roles. Wasn’t that a Brexit goal . English Jobs for English people.

.42.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117803121#Comment_117803121

Fcuk them… They were told like the rest of the EU population what Brexit would mean. Access to the same info.

They chose their path based on their opinion that they know better.

The CE marking thing is an enormous issue and I really don't think they had a clue what they were dealing with. It's not just some overall certification for individual finished consumer products, but rather every component in supply chains.

So, you can't feasibly just replace CE with UKCA. It's just mind bogglingly complex to even begin to contemplate how messy that would be.

If you don't have CE approved supply chain components you also won't be able to export anything to the EU and the EU is basically a world reference for standards development, so it's not like they're going to be rushing off to recognise some medium sized 3rd country's weird setup.

It shows that they did zero consultation with business and just want to differentiate for the sake of differentiation.

They're likely going to end up having, for pragmatic reasons, to accept CE marking and European standards as applicable in the UK and having domestic standards that are largely irrelevant beyond their own borders.

The whole point of EU standards is to achieve efficiency, more competition and economies of scale.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117803162#Comment_117803162

I know for a fact that the British government did consult businesses, as I took part in it at the time and posted about it in an earlier instance of the ‘Brexit’ thread in here. It was a long time back, 2017 IIRC.

I also know for a fact that ours wasn’t the only business consulted in our game and, as a pretty niche legal services provider, logic strongly suggests that we can’t have been the only line of business consulted - rather the tail end of it, if anything.

But the evidence, pretty much incontrovertible at this stage, is that so far, successive British government have chosen not to let such consultations impinge their policies.

The more cynical in me continues to believe that this was, and continues to be, by design rather than ignorance. UK plc is on its arse and going ever more for a song every passing day, and overseas (esp.US) asset and venture groups are hoovering them up at a rate of knots (for headline acts, see Morrison’s, Sainsbury’s is likely next).

Well, yeah you can consult with business, not like what you hear because it conflicts with your jingoistic dogma, and then completely ignore the report, which would seem to be quite likely.

The Tories are very good at making the right noises and getting the PR and spin polished. Levelling up, Northern Powerhouse, Global Britain, build Tunnel to Northern Ireland ...

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117803153#Comment_117803153

It does seem like they could have been persuaded to do just about anything in a referendum by Farage, Vote Leave and the right wing press. Scrap the House of Commons, ditch the monarchy, ditch the legal system (and all the time assuming there would be no real world consequences to their vote, none that would affect them anyway).

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117803121#Comment_117803121

Cameron wasn't anything except too weak to enact any sort of meaningful reform. Instead, he opted to gamble the future of the United Kingdom, first in 2014 and again in 2016.

Brexit was never about anything more than placating the Tory right and keeping Cameron in power. It was never about trade, jobs, sovereignty or even immigration. The Ultras want to turn the UK into a hollowed out vassal of the US while the centrists just wanted to cling to power because it's all they know how to do.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117803162#Comment_117803162

Is there a possibility that the UK will more or less keep all the EU regulations and updates? In some cases just rebadging the regulations and in others just accepting EU regulations as the UK regulations. The UK would end up in Brexit in name only situation except with all the costs from not officially signing up the relevant regulations with the EU.

The situation with the CE mark was warned about by a lot of people. The UK would be forced by economic realities to accept EU regulations.

The question is what is the point of moving away from it? It serves no purpose. It’s not even protectionism. It quite literally damages their own consumers and businesses. It’s just sheer flag waving nonsense.

You might as well just declare that you’ll require all washing machines come come with a jaunty hat and a big Union Flag on the on/off button that plays Rule Britannia when the wash ends, but it’ll still be made in Italy or Korea. You’ll have very reduced range of models & a much higher price than your neighbours.

farmerval

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117796193#Comment_117796193

I think a major problem has been as a united group with a very narrow focus, ambitious people in the Tories saw bowing and scraping to the ERG as a necessary way to climb the greasy pole.

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117800020#Comment_117800020

A possible fish shortage for Christmas was the subject of a Channel 4 News story this evening. The fish factories can't get the staff now because many of them used to come from Europe. They're looking to the government for an exemption for their industry. I was sympathetic to their plight until it was mentioned that the Scottish Seafood Association spokesman interviewed had been...yes, a proud supporter of Brexit. This was the point at which my sympathy turned instantly to derision.

"We need to be able to take workers in without all the ridiculous red tape," he complained...about the situation he voted for.

https://www.channel4.com/news/brexit-fishing-industry-warns-labour-shortages-could-affect-food-supplies

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117803921#Comment_117803921

Another factor is that under the FPTP system, the Tories had no choice but to accommodate these extremists. The ERG should really have been in a right wing / far right English nationalist party of their own, not in a mainstream party of government. To make things worse, the entire parliamentary party has been taken over by these guys, with moderates and centrists forced aside.