Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117826663#Comment_117826663

I don't know if this has happened in Ireland but some UK builders(for example) had given up over the years because they couldn't compete with Eastern European builders,plumbers etc price wise.

I have no problem with competition btw,although other countries and alliances have no problem openly promoting their own first and even promoting protectionism.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117828008#Comment_117828008

I think the issue is that a reasonably skilled trades person likely has a better financial future than a lot of Arts/Humanities graduates most of whom don't end up actually using their degree directly in their professional career.

So, you have lots of people with 3/4 year degrees in Arts/Humanities who end up working in call centres or low/mid level clerical jobs who might have been better served doing a 3 or 4 year blended apprenticeship as an electrician/plumber or what have you. They would certainly be earning more at age ~30 than a lot of them are today.

There is a stigma of sorts to entering the trades both here and in the UK - It's seen as a step down or that you "weren't quite bright enough" for college/university. That is not the case in most of the rest of Europe , far from it in fact.

That social stigma is the challenge that the UK now face given that all those Eastern European tradespeople are no longer available to take the jobs that so many in the UK and Ireland consider "beneath" them.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827978#Comment_117827978

I'm not denying that for many people, university may well have been a doss and an excuse to party in the past. But it's also the case that the doctors, scientists, architects, engineers, psychologists, accountants, physiotherapists, translators etc etc also went to uni and clearly weren't dossing.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117828076#Comment_117828076

True but this rushing of people to University isn't limited to the UK and won't be improved by either Brexit or the current government. Education is being dumbed down by austerity and a hostile attitude towards attainment and education as shown in the constant targeting of schools and universities by the right wing commentariat.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117828139#Comment_117828139

That's not a great comparison though as there are many doing sciences, medicine, engineering, IT, etc. I've known people in the Arts to go much farther than I would have thought possible as well.

The issue with non-university career paths is people don't really know about them. This is going to be important in a world of ever-increasing automation. Unfortunately, successive governments here have shown little interest in investing in opportunities, preferring a more neoliberal approach to free movement.

If the government had taken a sensible approach, there'd have been at least 5-years while they prepared to plug the labour shortage with measures like paid training, visas and the like but instead, they've opted for a harsh Brexit and this is the result.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117828139#Comment_117828139

Just on the first point. Due to the weird snobbery involved in UK education just having a University degree unlocks a number of doors that vocational training does not.

My ex had a degree in music but could apply for graduate positions in all sorts of sectors I couldn't despite neither of us having any training or experience in those sectors

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117828666#Comment_117828666

Don't disagree - The lack of information and the lack of profile given to the non-university pathways is a huge problem as 16/17 year olds really don't see them as realistic pathways unless they have a family connection or a particular desire in the given area.

I've seen it with my own kids here - School Careers guidance people focus almost exclusively on applying to Universities almost completely ignoring the multitude of other pathways that are there for people.

Seth Brundle

I noticed two tweets from James O'Brien today advising people of food shortages and price increases, both as a result of the logistics issues within GB. This, I presume, will lead to increased inflation and the economic issues that can bring.

In the first, The Grocer mag has an article which wholesalers have been warning schools to stock up on food supplies, given the HGV driver shortages.

The Federation of Wholesale Distributors said its members had been encouraging schools to “stock up early where possible”, warning that September will be “an incredibly challenging month” as schools and workplaces re-open.

Schools told to prepare for food shortages

The second tweet linked to an FT.com article which warned that food prices will rise as a direct result of the driver shortage and increased checks on imports coupled with oil price increases.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at market research group Kantar, said the cost increases, including recent wage rises and other incentives for truck drivers to alleviate shortages, “have been so substantial I don’t see how they can avoid price rises.”

UK retail trade signals prospect of higher food prices

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117829075#Comment_117829075

I remember one of our guidance councillors was obsessed with shipping as many of us off to Liverpool John Moores University for some reason.

I'd be lying if I claimed to know much about trades. My aunt runs a plumbing firm here with her husband and they exclusively hire Romanians. I've lived with people who worked in construction and the recurring theme was long hours, occasional 6-day weeks and very early starts. I don't think it's really viable for a lot of people compared to the salaries and conditions a good degree can lead you to.

That said, I'd consider it had I known of any opportunities when I was in school or even now once I have my fill of London's absurd cost of living. I don't think plumbers make any more than I do so any change would be pointless.

Anyway, a better government might have tried to invest in economically abandoned places with more training programmes but I suppose a better government wouldn't have enacted Brexit.

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117828528#Comment_117828528

Immigration is`nt a new thing here in the UK and I`d disagree that racism is a major problem here.I remember visiting a friends Grandparents in North London in the 70`s and was surprised by the amount of foreigners even then.

Also,comparing Ireland and the UK,they both have similar training opportunities for young people to train as plumbers and various other skilled trades.Twelve quays college here in Birkenhead offer this type of training and I`ve seen the same type of thing in the Drogheda leader.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117829759#Comment_117829759

How did you know they were all 'foreigners' and not born in the UK?

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117826151#Comment_117826151

I saw a random twitter comment along the lines of The British government will give you a loan to study Himalayan Throat Warbling but not one to become a hgv driver , hyperbole aside there is a point in there. Jobs that are important to an economy are undervalued and wages driven down. hgv driving would be one rung down from working in the North Sea as I see it, they should be on 50k to 70k a year because of the disruption to lifestyle and its worth a few pennies on your winter strawberries driven up from Spain

Sam Russell

The HGV problem could be eased greatly if they allowed EU qualified drivers to operate in the UK as before Brexit. Of course, that would be against the very reason for Brexit - taking back control.

HGV drivers are paid not much above minimum wage for a job that requires significant time away from home, long hours and controlled rest periods, and onerous qualification and retention of that qualification. Add the penalties for being found with the odd unauthorised passenger they knew nothing about, I think they are worth more than they are currently paid. No wonder there is a shortage.

looksee

As well as taking the initial test for HGV driving, the Cert of Professional Competence has to be maintained with 35 hours of training over every 5 year period. This can easily cost several thousand (pounds) - every five years. It is similar in Ireland though I am not sure how prices compare.

Training for things like fork lift truck driving is also fairly costly if you are in low paid employment - if you are unemployed there are courses available, if you can get onto one, but if you take a low paid job just to not be unemployed then you are on your own trying to improve yourself on minimum wage.

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831532#Comment_117831532

there is a shortage in Italy and Germany too. There is an underlying problem of treating a responsible and exacting job as if it a "fast food" job. the most economically beneficial approach is to let pay rise to their "natural" level and allow innovation to increase productivity, lord know in 20 years the role might go away largely if it all becomes automated but thats not a near term thing.

if there is a Brexit positive its that companies would need to pay manual workers more which is a good thing and would lead to more upskilling and investment in staff.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831717#Comment_117831717

I wouldn't take it for granted that it would necessarily lead to upskilliing and investment in people.

They don't seem to have invested in people over the several years they have been talking about driver shortages.

It could as easily lead to outsourcing and importing the finished product instead.

Seth Brundle

I had heard about beer shortages in Scotland but wasn't aware that it was happening in England, with Wetherspoons no less. Tim Martin presumably has been onto Johnson about it so expect postivie action from HMG soon...

https://metro.co.uk/2021/08/31/beer-shortages-at-wetherspoons-after-brexit-and-covid-hit-supply-chains-15184924/?ito=article.desktop.share.top.twitter

Mind you, are shortages of Bud Light a bad thing?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831717#Comment_117831717

The thing is, innovation has already increased the productivity of HGV driving - real-time stock control systems, mobile communications technology, even the likes of google maps make just-in-time delivery systems viable in a way that they never were before, and this results in huge efficiencies. HGV driving can now deliver much greater value than it used to. (Also, of course, the completion of the Single Market greatly increased the productivity of international HGV driving. Hard Brexit quite deliberately shreds those gains; it would be idle to pretend otherwise. But that's for another discussion.)

Relatively little of the productivity gains resulting from innovation have accrued to the HGV drivers because, in parallel with the technological developments, we've had increased deregulation and casualisation of labour, which means that workers are not well-placed in the competition to divide up the productivity gains.

And the latter factor, obviously, is relevant to more than just HGV drivers; it applies to huge swathes of the labour market. The conclusion that we draw from this is that, if workers wish to increase their wages, what they need to do is not vote against EU membership so much as vote against the Tories and other neoliberal parties who actively and consciously seek to disadvantage labour relative to capital. A True Socialist™ would recognise Brexit as a tool of the oppressive capitalist class to distract the workers from recognising where their true interests lie 😀. Hence the enthusiastic support of the right-wing press for Brexit.

(That's not a joke. Well, not entirely.)

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831717#Comment_117831717

I suppose the thing about it is the UK didn't need to f-ck up relationships with all its neighbouring countries to do that (improve pay and conditions for workers in some sectors, reverse a race to the bottom). Also, the right/Brexiters describing this a "benefit" is funny given how it contradicts some other aspects of their ideology/beliefs.

I really expect if a labour squeeze gets worse in the UK over coming years and starts to make inflation rise strongly and badly damages UK economy (I supose you could have "stagflation" as I think they called it in the US), Conservative party will (according to desires of donors) announce a huge visa scheme for Pakistan and India...I wonder how that one will be explained politically!

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831717#Comment_117831717

That's a fine idea in principle; but it's arguable that a company benefitting - profiting really - off of a previous structure of low-skilled, migratory workforce filling the fields strikes as less likely to pivot into investment or removing profit from the books. I'm sure some - maybe even many! - companies will adjust their business to reflect the post-Brexit pressures; that they'll pay a locally sourced workforce to retrain and work the manual labour. But it's debatable how many companies will do that, to the point of it being a critical mass; especially given many are probably already facing a crisis in the here and now. Hard to plan for the long-term, when the short-term imperils your business.

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117830670#Comment_117830670

They had foreign accents or could hardly speak English.

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831777#Comment_117831777

as you have described it the EU is the neoliberal tool for grinding working class wages down , want a pay rise, we will talk to Poland

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831817#Comment_117831817

A foreign accent could indicate a lack of integration whilst an inability to speak English could apply to a proportion of English people!

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831717#Comment_117831717

But if you are from a poorer Eastern European country, then you are going to go to Germany where the wages are decent and there is no paperwork rather than go to Britain where they might cancel your visa when the crisis is over.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831717#Comment_117831717

You'd have thought that the Pandemic would have altered peoples perception of the value of certain jobs and even more so with Brexit.

So many of what were suddenly recognised as "essential services" over the last 18 months or so are paid at or close to minimum wage.

Staff Shortages in those roles are already being seen in multiple countries not just the UK (although Brexit is likely to magnify the issue there) - It remains to be seen how those shortages get addressed over the next 6-12 months as everything gets back to full speed.

The "easy" way would be continue paying the low wages and fill the positions with lots of immigrants , but is that going to be palatable to Tory/Brexit voters??

The better solution of course would be to start paying people what their jobs are worth , but that's going to be seen as a last resort by industry.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831817#Comment_117831817

You spoke to them all?

Okay.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831818#Comment_117831818

The whole Single Market model of common standards is designed to prevent a "race to the bottom" that would result simply from the kind of mutual-recognition-without-common-standards that Brexiters (now) decide the EU should accord to the UK. An individual member state can't secure advantage over other member states by slashing e.g. labour or environmental standards, and so producing goods more cheaply, and so destroying higher-paying/better-regulated competitors in other member states. That's why the EU requires its members all to have legislation on, e.g., equal pay, protection of employees' rights on transfer of undertakings, working time, etc. The roots of this go right back to the European Coal and Steel Community.

What the EU doesn't have, it's true, is a common minimum wage. This is because the factors that affect wages are too diverse across the Union - I think there'd be general agreement about this. If there were to be a common minimum wage, it would have to be set a level that would be either high enough to destroy large amounts of employment in poorer member states, or too low to be of any use in protecting workers in richer member states , or - probably - a bit of both. (But there are proposals for a common minimum wage policy, with each member state being required, e.g., to adopt a minimum wage of at least a certain percentage of the median wage for that member state.)

The EU does have nondiscrimination rules, so that e.g. Polish HGV drivers taking on jobs in the UK would benefit from any protections that UK HGV drivers would get. So if the UK wanted to improve the earnings of UK HGV drivers it could do that without Brexiting, e.g. by mandating minimum rates of pay for drivers engaged to drive in the UK, or engaged by UK employers. The availability of Polish drivers wouldn't undercut that, since they would have to get the same minimum rates.

retalivity

Meanwhile, those UK students looking to leave the 'sunlit uplands' and study abroad are finding it impossible to get visas.

Of course, the UK govt has come up with the typical UK govt response - Just let them in.

"In the most extreme case, the UK government has asked Spain to set up a fast-track visa process for British students wanting to study and work there after the Spanish embassy in London was overwhelmed by applications. But Spanish officials have so far rebuffed the request for a fast-track process, saying students should check they have the right documents to avoid hold-ups and suggesting universities could centralise visa applications and submit them en masse."

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/sep/01/thousands-of-british-students-in-limbo-with-post-brexit-visa-chaos

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831717#Comment_117831717

But this isn't what's happening. What's happening is that there's an artificial shortage which has left tens of thousands of jobs unfilled. HGV driving is only the first because of the nature of the demographics of those who do the jobs, ie older men who are leaving the market while younger people are eschewing it. There's no evidence I'm aware of that the wages were being suppressed but if they are, those concerned should be lobbying for better employment rights and union representation but unfortunately, the concern amongst the Brexiters was solely focused on immigration.

There's a real need to reform how employment in this country works because EU migrants aren't coming to fill the roles that people here just don't want to do and somehow I doubt that importing people from further afield will be politically viable. With the announcement last week of Sharon Graham as Unite's new general secretary, I'm hoping at the very least we see it get talked about a lot more.

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117831932#Comment_117831932

i dont get that, in the past it was about replacing people with machines, now its about replacing people with cheaper people on top of any technological change, and there is a bit of the Tebit "get on your bike" about it as well, that kind of suggestion works from poorer countries to richer ones , where do you want working class people from england to migrate to? , ideally salaries rise in that sector , it would be great if salaries for truckers doubled , the State assists in training possibly, clears some bureaucracy, army drivers leave because of the better pay and hay ho the market works

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117832037#Comment_117832037

i dont follow logistics but I gather Polish trucking companies had/have a big advantage because they can pay Polish wages to their staff trucking around Europe and if what I saw was right the EU is or has tried to curb it which could trigger disruption too if it wasn't done right. I guess it could be amusing for them if their pay changed by GPS location