Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) **Mod warning in OP 22/01**

History Queen

Neagra wrote: »

firstly i acknowledge your post on an emotional level - but can we deal just with the facts
i am still confused
in cahir / clonmel areas in the last 14 days 0.001% of that population every day have caught the virus.

can someone explain why it is rank exceptionism ( whatever that is ) to reopen the schools in this area.

I'm assuming because currently there is no regionality in terms of lockdown. Level 5 is nationwide. Email a journalist to ask Nephet maybe?

Clouron

am_zarathustra wrote: »

I'm not a parent myself but I can see how in January I would not have been sending my kid into schools. Can I ask how you feel now? If numbers were to stabilize even to below 3/400 per day and it was phased would you be confortable?

I would send my children back yes. The school did very well last term. The protocol would need to be updated to limit parent congregation which has always been the concern. Staggered in and out times. But yes I would send them in. There should be a customised response per county so yes if tipp has extremely low incidence rate then they could open with parent congregation protocol.

But of course DES won't do that as they can't be arsed.

wirelessdude01

Clouron wrote: »

I would send my children back yes. The school did very well last term. The protocol would need to be updated to limit parent congregation which has always been the concern. Staggered in and out times. But yes I would send them in. There should be a customised response per county so yes if tipp has extremely low incidence rate then they could open with parent congregation protocol.

But of course DES won't do that as they can't be arsed.

May I ask what you do with a school which could have kids coming from 3 or 4 different counties or schools in the border counties where kids and staff technically live in a different country?

Mrsmum

Neagra wrote: »

please my post 6306
what normal thinking person would be scared

Great. Alot of people would like to see the effect of schools opening on community cases. If this test case could be arranged, fantastic. I'll sign your petition. That is assuming you do speak for all the people in Cahir/Clonmel.

Neagra

Mrsmum wrote: »

Great. Alot of people would like to see the effect of schools opening on community cases. If this test case could be arranged, fantastic. I'll sign your petition. That is assuming you do speak for all the people in Cahir/Clonmel.

i dont understand your negativity.
i have raised a valid point.

think about - currently every day 0.02% of the population tests positive
at its worst in january it was running at 0.1% daily
opening schools is a no brainer.
the numbers dont lie, they never should have been shut

khalessi

Isn't it interesting that the Ombudsman For Children has been ignored by DES as well

https://twitter.com/aoibhinn_ni_s/status/1360625810709839873

am_zarathustra

Neagra wrote: »

firstly i acknowledge your post on an emotional level - but can we deal just with the facts
i am still confused
in cahir / clonmel areas in the last 14 days 0.001% of that population every day have caught the virus.

can someone explain why it is rank exceptionism ( whatever that is ) to reopen the schools in this area.

Maybe you have ineffective contact tracing in the area, GPs not sending for testing etc you don't know why levels or low or if they are. Contact tracing will need to be up and running longer for us to have an idea of what's happening.

Also Thurles and Templemore/Roscrea are even lower, do they open first?

The rate is still well over a hundred in all these areas, before we left everyone go mad at Christmas it was below 25 after the October restrictions. We are not there.

But fundamentally none of this is to do with any of that really, Ireland is a small country, people move, 15-20% of the kids in my school came from different counties. Rates in your immediate area can change quickly, it's a smaller sample size. Look at the outbreak in Galway. While rates are whee they are now it's not safe, a parish isn't a miraculous bubble but it's parochial thinking

History Queen

khalessi wrote: »

Isn't it interesting that the Ombudsman For Children has been ignored by DES as well

https://twitter.com/aoibhinn_ni_s/status/1360625810709839873

I hadn't heard about this until you posted it. Why is it that so few questions are being asked of Norma Foley and the Department of Education about their sheer ineptitude. From jounalists or the opposition? I really think it is inexcusable. Whatever about people's opinions of teachers and their unions, surely we can all agree there are serious issues with the Dept.

am_zarathustra

Neagra wrote: »

i dont understand your negativity.
i have raised a valid point.

think about - currently every day 0.02% of the population tests positive
at its worst in january it was running at 0.1% daily
opening schools is a no brainer.
the numbers dont lie, they never should have been shut

Our health system was at capacity, we had to strangle the virus quickly to stop health workers from having to make awful choices about who lives and dies.,....Paul Reid, and the plethora or nurses and doctors on the news and prime time we're fairly clear about that.

Regarding the stat
At 0.1% positive and no contact tracing we could assume more people had it, maybe more given an R value close to 2 in all likelihood
So 1 in every 1000 people infected every day
14 day cycle (not perfect but usual)
Withing 10 days 1 in 100 have tested positive, in 14 days 1 in 72 people are at that time positive.......again without contact tracing so that's going to be higher, let's be conservative and assume an R of 1 or slightly above with no contact tracing......it's easily possible in January anywhere between 1 in 70 and 1 in 30 people in this country had covid. There is a very good reason we don't enact public health policy based on 1 days positive incidence in the whole population. Capacity and trends are the buzzword of this pandemic

This along with a more virulent strain. Why do you think you understand more than the epidemiologists, immunologist, people running and working in the HSE?

Random sample

History Queen wrote: »

I hadn't heard about this until you posted it. Why is it that so few questions are being asked of Norma Foley and the Department of Education about their sheer ineptitude. From jounalists or the opposition? I really think it is inexcusable. Whatever about people's opinions of teachers and their unions, surely we can all agree there are serious issues with the Dept.

Labour are in favour of predictive grades, so aren’t going to question why exams haven’t been prepared for.

am_zarathustra

History Queen wrote: »

I hadn't heard about this until you posted it. Why is it that so few questions are being asked of Norma Foley and the Department of Education about their sheer ineptitude. From jounalists or the opposition? I really think it is inexcusable. Whatever about people's opinions of teachers and their unions, surely we can all agree there are serious issues with the Dept.

This and the PAC meeting last week hardly cast them in the best light! Where is the daming expose on Seán Ó Foghlú?

Hubertj

Dept of education has been a sh*t show for years. It doesn’t matter who the minister is, it is the public servant in the department that are the problem. There is no accountability.

Trade union representatives do not do their members justice. I look at how much work teachers at my school put into getting kids back and ensuring they had as normal an experience as possible under the circumstances. It was phenomenal and to be commended. Then I have to look at the behaviour of trade union representatives in the media. Sickening.

History Queen

Random sample wrote: »

Labour are in favour of predictive grades, so aren’t going to question why exams haven’t been prepared for.

I understand the politics at play alright but surely they should be questioning the lack of planning.

History Queen

am_zarathustra wrote: »

This and the PAC meeting last week hardly cast them in the best light! Where is the daming expose on Seán Ó Foghlú?

Exactly! I just cannot understand the complete lack of scrutiny and accountability. The Dept seems untouchable. They've been inept for years but it's so publicly obvious now I thought that some sort of accountability would be called for.

khalessi

am_zarathustra wrote: »

This and the PAC meeting last week hardly cast them in the best light! Where is the daming expose on Seán Ó Foghlú?

It is not unknown for Ministers to completely overrule the Sec Gen. I would want an expose on NoFo and If Seán Ó Foghlú is clever he got everyone of her instructions in writing

am_zarathustra

History Queen wrote: »

I understand the politics at play alright but surely they should be questioning the lack of planning.

There's a strange reticence to really question the department, the PAC meeting was the first time in years I've seen anyone question the obvious waste

History Queen

am_zarathustra wrote: »

There's a strange reticence to really question the department, the PAC meeting was the first time in years I've seen anyone question the obvious waste

Now the idea is in my head I'm going to draft an email to my local TDs asking them to question it, and the education correspondents. Yes, nothing will probably happen but at least I'll feel I tried.

Neagra

am_zarathustra wrote: »

Our health system was at capacity, we had to strangle the virus quickly to stop health workers from having to make awful choices about who lives and dies.,....Paul Reid, and the plethora or nurses and doctors on the news and prime time we're fairly clear about that.

Regarding the stat
At 0.1% positive and no contact tracing we could assume more people had it, maybe more given an R value close to 2 in all likelihood
So 1 in every 1000 people infected every day
14 day cycle (not perfect but usual)
Withing 10 days 1 in 100 have tested positive, in 14 days 1 in 72 people are at that time positive.......again without contact tracing so that's going to be higher, let's be conservative and assume an R of 1 or slightly above with no contact tracing......it's easily possible in January anywhere between 1 in 70 and 1 in 30 people in this country had covid. There is a very good reason we don't enact public health policy based on 1 days positive incidence in the whole population. Capacity and trends are the buzzword of this pandemic

This along with a more virulent strain. Why do you think you understand more than the epidemiologists, immunologist, people running and working in the HSE?

you assume alot in that post
1 in every 1000 testing positive daily becomes 1 in 100 testing positively within 10 days. and then becomes in 14 days 1 in 72 daily

your math is off
5000 cases per day
10 days later 50000 cases per day
14 days later 66,666 cases per day
so basically 2 months and the whole country has had it
if only it was that easy.

look you are thinking short term and in your own bubble.
many people are.
a public sector employee whose job and wage has not been affected and wont be no matter how long the lockdown lasts. they dont get it.

but when the pup and wage subsidies end and they will and we witness the carnage that follows economically, socially and politically.
when this country, the UK and europe are facing their darkest hour since world war 2 i hope you will then finally understand the epidemiologist, immunologist, people running and working in the HSE - they aint going to be able to do sh1t about it.
we are committing economic suicide which will lead to a further rise of the extreme right and left in our country and across europe.

9.8% contraction in the UK economy last year - the mostly deadly stat to come out in the last year.
the only thing keeping us afloat is quantitative easing and problem with QE is no knows what is too much.
the european central bank are using negative interest charges to get the economy to get going.
do you know how insane that is. that should worry all of us.

km79

Sunday independent
LC plan goes ahead as predicted
Students have a choice of either or
Leaving certs to return “the week of the 22nd”
All others back within 2-3 weeks

Sunday business post
No indoor gatherings of over 50 people until Autumn

How does that make sense ?

http://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1360721562614325252

am_zarathustra

Neagra wrote: »

you assume alot in that post
1 in every 1000 testing positive daily becomes 1 in 100 testing positively within 10 days. and then becomes in 14 days 1 in 72 daily

your math is off
5000 cases per day
10 days later 50000 cases per day
14 days later 66,666 cases per day
so basically 2 months and the whole country has had it
if only it was that easy.

look you are thinking short term and in your own bubble.
many people are.
a public sector employee whose job and wage has not been affected and wont be no matter how long the lockdown lasts. they dont get it.

but when the pup and wage subsidies end and they will and we witness the carnage that follows economically, socially and politically.
when this country, the UK and europe are facing their darkest hour since world war 2 i hope you will then finally understand the epidemiologist, immunologist, people running and working in the HSE - they aint going to be able to do sh1t about it.
we are committing economic suicide which will lead to a further rise of the extreme right and left in our country and across europe.

9.8% contraction in the UK economy last year - the mostly deadly stat to come out in the last year.
the only thing keeping us afloat is quantitative easing and problem with QE is no knows what is too much.
the european central bank are using negative interest charges to get the economy to get going.
do you know how insane that is. that should worry all of us.

All positivity is is counted over 14 days total, that's how long people have it for on average. My maths is fine, trust me. I literally just took your percentage, turned it into quantitative measurement per day, and then multiplied that by 14.........

We locked down, rates went down, so everyone wasn't infected.

Uk had a little thing called Brexit there........twas fairly topical over that last while. They also didn't lock down for as long or as hard as us, so maybe what we should learn is our experts did ok in this once in a lifetime pandemic. Irish economy did surprisingly well and every international expert of note is predicting the same this year. Even in the 2nd and 3rd quarter we only saw approx 3.5 % contraction. Thanks to a healthy GDP (I know, I'm aware of the issues but even at the adjusted rate it's still very high) many people are cash rich and will be happy to spend when things open, we saw this in the summer and Christmas. Again, holidaying at home this year will hopefully be a boon. Regardless no economic experts agree with your outlook on ireland just like no medical experts agree with your public health advice

www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-on-course-to-be-fastest-growing-economy-in-world-in-2020-1.4427464%3fmode=amp

The only real caveat is the importance of interest rates but given most other countries are in a worse position I can't see this being a problem. I don't have a problem with QE in a once in a lifetime pandemic but coming out of this will need to be delictely balanced.

Sheep breeder

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

A lot of people are ignoring what I consider to be the basics. We went out to do our weekly shop today. People just ignoring the electronic entrance signs at both Aldi and Teaco. People walking in and ignoring the hand and trolley sanitising stations that are provided. Personal space while shopping seems to be something that people willfully think doesn't apply in shops, people reaching around /under/over you to get at the shelf rather than wait the 2 seconds it takes for you to get the item and move on. While queuing for the tills we had to ask the people behind would they mind giving the 2m gap as indicated by the markings on the ground.

People have become complacent. We arrive home then and can barely get into our own drive such is the amount of cars visiting one of the neighbours.

These are some of the reasons why we aren't in school, why the leaving cert situation is where it is. Too many people think it doesn't apply to them and that by ignoring the restrictions they are giving two fingers to the 'man'. That they can't and won't be told what to do or how to behave.

Agree with you about the shopping, was in Aldi today and seen people walkthrough the red light and no sanitation done, but what really capped was a couple going around with two young kids 3 or 4 years old running around and the husband trying to catch them and the wife with the trolley in the middle of the way and she pushing in on top of people to get stuff and then going looking for the children and not a care in the world for anybody else.

Sheep breeder

Neagra wrote: »

i dont understand your negativity.
i have raised a valid point.

think about - currently every day 0.02% of the population tests positive
at its worst in january it was running at 0.1% daily
opening schools is a no brainer.
the numbers dont lie, they never should have been shut

Example, one guy working in a meat factory in Wexford got Covid and gave it to another guy staying in the same house who works in another meat factory. Between these two guys a total of 200 people in the area tested positive for Covid. This was in a rural setting with two small towns involved.
No reflect this into a large school in a town where one case could spread through a lot of people.

As for opening schools is a no brainier, I personally do not want our kids in school to get Covid and pass it around and are you happy to have your kids in school or do you have kids in school????.
Our two are being schooled very well at home and fair play to the teachers for their efforts. Last thing this is lock down to stop the spread of a virus.

The_Brood

Hubertj wrote: »

Dept of education has been a sh*t show for years. It doesn’t matter who the minister is, it is the public servant in the department that are the problem. There is no accountability.

Trade union representatives do not do their members justice. I look at how much work teachers at my school put into getting kids back and ensuring they had as normal an experience as possible under the circumstances. It was phenomenal and to be commended. Then I have to look at the behaviour of trade union representatives in the media. Sickening.

How is the public servant responsible when they follow the policy set by the government that is elected by the people? Look at polls all over, most people are still happy to go with some form of FF and FG. They set the policies and the resources. If people continue voting for them, they must be content.

Hubertj

The_Brood wrote: »

How is the public servant responsible when they follow the policy set by the government that is elected by the people? Look at polls all over, most people are still happy to go with some form of FF and FG. They set the policies and the resources. If people continue voting for them, they must be content.

Yes it is easier to blame the “gubberment”.

pc7

Is the Indo leak correct? Can any teachers here confirm it? Really hope it’s true and some Primary is back from 1st of March.

History Queen

pc7 wrote: »

Is the Indo leak correct? Can any teachers here confirm it? Really hope it’s true and some Primary is back from 1st of March.

Teachers are only hearing about it from papers too.

noplacehere

Seems to have been substantial leaks. Newstalk just now was discussing it

khalessi

History Queen wrote: »

Teachers are only hearing about it from papers too.

Apart from the phased reopening which is an optics thing, what proper changes will they have instigated to improve safety?

I can nearly guess nothing will have changed.

pc7

Well numbers are down greatly on what they were. Our school had no cases from September to Christmas holidays, so what they were doing worked. Staggered times, drop off points, sanitizing hands, masks for older primary kids. It worked.
We need to try get the kids back, especially smaller ones who can’t do online learning and have missed so much over the last year. Let alone the social side of things.

History Queen

khalessi wrote: »

Apart from the phased reopening which is an optics thing, what proper changes will they have instigated to improve safety?

I can nearly guess nothing will have changed.

I have to say I personally think phased reopening is much safer, it cuts down your exposure to other households at second level quite substantially and gives a chance to pause or delay re-opening if numbers creep up.

Outside of that, however, I don't know.