Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) **Mod warning in OP 22/01**

Theboinkmaster

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

They are susceptible to vaccines which is great. But nobody in the school setting is vaccinated? Odd comments.

The UK strain will spread like wildfire if we reopen with current t cases numbers and lack of contact tracing.

what odd comments? nobody in school setting is vaccinated?! I never said that. I'd want everyone vaccinated of course.

The UK strain will end up being the dominant strain here anyway, can't stop that.

Nobody talking about re-opening now - but i would in a month with 500 daily cases and full contact tracing up and running fully.

you need to re-read my posts.

Stateofyou

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Yes that's true - but is that because of these new strains or the fact that a large section of the population went absolutely mad for the month of December and acted as if COVID did not exist - indoor dining, parties etc.

HSE were reporting some people had personal contacts of 30+.

Just look at what happened in Belmullet - was that because of the new strains? No it wasn't.

It can be due to both. Why do you think it's either one or the other?

Theboinkmaster

Stateofyou wrote: »

A. FALSE. Just do a simple google search. I'm not doing that for you. You're "very dubious" about new strains? LOL. That's what viruses NORMALLY do. I'm surprised you don't know this, I thought everyone did. Just look at all the common cold/flu strains... :rolleyes:

b) "so they can stay" home is what you said, the scared is implied as that is almost always the meaning behind those that use that line.

a) no do send me on links, there is no scientific data unless you can show me. You are not reading my post correctly - I'm not dubious about being new strains - of course there are hundreds of CV-19 strains. I accept that - some more significant than others. What I am dubious about if the impact of these new strains v what's been reported in the media - their impact on transmissibility and how more damaging they are - that is what I'm dubious about since there is not scientific data just made up media reports of people speculating or anecdotal information.

b) you said scared i did not. I said people have a choice to stay home and perform their own risk assessment based on their own circumstances.

Theboinkmaster

Stateofyou wrote: »

It can be due to both. Why do you think it's either one or the other?

Of course it can - but was it 90% people socializing/10% new strain....

The new strain wasn't the primary reason for large infections in January IMHO.

Stateofyou

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Of course it can - but was it 90% people socializing/10% new strain....

The new strain wasn't the primary reason for large infections in January IMHO.

A very scientifically sound assessment based on data, no doubt. :rolleyes:

You clearly believe what you want to believe, so why are you even calling for data on the new strains when clearly real data doesn't seem that important to you?

History Queen

All I've been hearing regarding the reopening of special schools debate is that special schools are open all across Europe Not exactly true. Some special schools are open across Europe, it seems to be on a more regionalised basis if this article is accurate.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/covid-19-how-are-other-eu-countries-dealing-with-schools-1.4466755?mode=amp&s=09

Hopefully a solution can befound here but it isn't as simple as some have suggested.

Theboinkmaster

Stateofyou wrote: »

A very scientifically sound assessment based on data, no doubt. :rolleyes:

You clearly believe what you want to believe, so why are you even calling for data on the new strains when clearly real data doesn't seem that important to you?

The 90/10% was an illustrative example, not the figures i believe obviously.

Real data is important. Some people are claiming the new strains are having a massive impact on case nos/hospitals/ICU etc. and all I'm asking for is scientific data to support that claim.

Stateofyou

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

The 90/10% was an illustrative example, not the figures i believe obviously.

Real data is important. Some people are claiming the new strains are having a massive impact on case nos/hospitals/ICU etc. and all I'm asking for is scientific data to support that claim.

That's what the hospitals themselves are saying - that it is worse this time around. People are presenting as much more ill, needing much more breathing assistance, and have stretched their resources more than ever before. And Tony H. has also said an increase of all age groups presenting to hospital is being seen this time. Last I read maybe a week ago, they've found that the new strain was present in more than 40% in cases found here (I think it was 46% specifically) and that over the next 2 weeks it would become the dominant strain. I remember all that off the top of my head without looking up any specific data, but what do you think that is illustrative of so far?

Edit to add, I even recently talked about an article I read from California where they have found a new mutant strain there that their scientists believe is the driver of the recent collapse of their hospitals there especially in southern CA. They only found it because they were looking for the new UK strain to try and piece together what was happening.

Tell me this, have you even attempted to search for "New UK strain data / New UK strain in Ireland on Google yourself at any point?

hopgirl

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Utter nonsense, it's been widely reported what happened there. Night club was open ffs!

Belmullet has a high emigration so many families came home for Christmas and the All Ireland, sadly they didn't quarantine like they should have. Six people from the UK had dinner in a restaurant the next day they went for their test, all tested positive. People they came into contact with all with home to their families bringing the virus with them.
The UK variant played a key role in the transmission, you have to realise it is a small area so alot people would know each other. They meet up with their friends socially as the government allowed it and then they pass it onto them and maybe see people they knew and had a chat with them. Then you got a region spread to different areas. What the government should have done was make sure these people were in quarantine or even better ban flights into Ireland. When there was foot and mouth they worked together North and South, what is different now?

rainbowtrout

hopgirl wrote: »

When there was foot and mouth they worked together North and South, what is different now?

Cattle don't go around having house parties and socialising wherever they feel like it.

am_zarathustra

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

a) no do send me on links, there is no scientific data unless you can show me. You are not reading my post correctly - I'm not dubious about being new strains - of course there are hundreds of CV-19 strains. I accept that - some more significant than others. What I am dubious about if the impact of these new strains v what's been reported in the media - their impact on transmissibility and how more damaging they are - that is what I'm dubious about since there is not scientific data just made up media reports of people speculating or anecdotal information.

b) you said scared i did not. I said people have a choice to stay home and perform their own risk assessment based on their own circumstances.

Three studies I meantioned on the last page are the best I've seen. They do suggest strongly it's more deadly, I mentioned the caveats I see but do please share any issues you have with their methodology.

I'd also be interested in what you thought of the in vitro studies on the south african varient,I'd be quite concerned that that is a serious issue with the assay response but again if be interested in your opinion on this too?

Edit: just to include the NERVTAG minutes, these are great if you want to keep abreast of info pre publication, obviously you can't wait for papers given the peer review systems time issues

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1T2TVbIhpT5TxyLz4Ky66HbpzcWt-NoV-F877_uKaVnERFC1IlX3oFEZQ

Stateofyou

Anyone else see this on VFT FB page?

"If RTÉ, our national broadcaster, feels that it is a correct & a proper comparison to have a principal from a brand new state of the art special school in Omagh in County Tyrone on the 6 o’ clock news than really as teachers and SNA’s we should also be looking at the data that the NEU has just released for the UK.
It is shocking and disturbing to think that our unions & the government think it is ok to open schools. Why are our unions not putting together actual empirical data like this?"

https://neu.org.uk/press-releases/impact-covid-school-workforce?fbclid=IwAR3530hAKnjlT3NlqTaZlGHtNsENyu_eIUd8Tk9l3HGsmUbj62XNtJ0-GNM

I've just started reading this article, but straight out of the gates is this -

The data shows that there are much higher COVID rates of infection amongst teachers and other school staff than for the general population. This finding is in contradiction to the reassurances regularly given by the Department and by Public Health England, including by Dr Jenny Harries giving evidence to the Education Select Committee this morning.

On average the rate of COVID infection is 1.9 times higher amongst primary and secondary teachers than the general population. It is 2 times higher for special school teachers.
For teaching assistants and other staff, the rate of COVID infection is three times higher in primary schools and almost seven times higher in special schools.

Theboinkmaster

Stateofyou wrote: »

That's what the hospitals themselves are saying - that it is worse this time around. People are presenting as much more ill, needing much more breathing assistance, and have stretched their resources more than ever before. And Tony H. has also said an increase of all age groups presenting to hospital is being seen this time. Last I read maybe a week ago, they've found that the new strain was present in more than 40% in cases found here (I think it was 46% specifically) and that over the next 2 weeks it would become the dominant strain. I remember all that off the top of my head without looking up any specific data, but what do you think that is illustrative of so far?

Edit to add, I even recently talked about an article I read from California where they have found a new mutant strain there that their scientists believe is the driver of the recent collapse of their hospitals there especially in southern CA. They only found it because they were looking for the new UK strain to try and piece together what was happening.

Tell me this, have you even attempted to search for "New UK strain data / New UK strain in Ireland on Google yourself at any point?

“And Tony H. has also said an increase of all age groups presenting to hospital is being seen this time. “

increase in all age group hospital admissions could just as easily be a factor of such dramatic increased community spread driven by Christmas socialising indoors.

So again no scientific data - just hearsay and anecdotes.

Yes I have looked all this up of course.

am_zarathustra

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

“And Tony H. has also said an increase of all age groups presenting to hospital is being seen this time. “

increase in all age group hospital admissions could just as easily be a factor of such dramatic increased community spread driven by Christmas socialising indoors.

So again no scientific data - just hearsay and anecdotes.

Yes I have looked all this up of course.

Again link to very recent data above if you care to peruse

Theboinkmaster

am_zarathustra wrote: »

Again link to very recent data above if you care to peruse

I did thank you - nothing in that would worry me too much or should stop schools phased re-opening in Feb once cases\hospitals are down

am_zarathustra

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I did thank you - nothing in that would worry me too much or should stop schools phased re-opening in Feb once cases\hospitals are down

Why do you think an 1.65 fold increase in fatality is not worth being concerned about or a 3 fold decrease in antibody response to the SA strain? I mean, all the scientists are concerned, what do you know that the experts in the area don't?


Actually particularly the SA strain, why does that not bother you? Have you a reason to believe the in vitro experiments will not be replicated?? There is a reason countries are banning travel from this area on the back of the preliminary results. What background do you have in science?

Schools should open of course, but the same rules do not apply as before christmas.

hesaidshesaid

Just at an INTO meeting - JB said government will make an announcement re. schools tomorrow. He didn't seem to think it would include specific dates.

Also said there's now an agreement that nothing will be reported in media re discussions until agreement on back to school is reached.

JB does not know what MM will announce tomorrow so that should be taken into account by those who think unions have unlimited power.

ETA: Teachers were asked to email CEC rep with suggestions for phased reopening.

km79

hesaidshesaid wrote: »

Just at an INTO meeting - JB said government will make an announcement re. schools tomorrow. He didn't seem to think it would include specific dates.

Also said there's now an agreement that nothing will be reported in media re discussions until agreement on back to school is reached.

JB does not know what MM will announce tomorrow so that should be taken into account by those who think unions have unlimited power.

I would take from that there is going to be nobody back next week
At that stage it would be more prudent to wait the extra school week until mid term
Things may look a lot better by then hopefully

wirelessdude01

hesaidshesaid wrote: »

Just at an INTO meeting - JB said government will make an announcement re. schools tomorrow. He didn't seem to think it would include specific dates.

Also said there's now an agreement that nothing will be reported in media re discussions until agreement on back to school is reached.

JB does not know what MM will announce tomorrow so that should be taken into account by those who think unions have unlimited power.

Wonder were we on the same teams meeting!!

km79

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Wonder were we on the same teams meeting!!

What was your take on it ?

hesaidshesaid

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Wonder were we on the same teams meeting!!

Hmmm who knows? All the meetings seem to be happening at the same time. Did he say anything else at yours?

Theboinkmaster

am_zarathustra wrote: »

Why do you think an 1.65 fold increase in fatality is not worth being concerned about or a 3 fold decrease in antibody response to the SA strain? I mean, all the scientists are concerned, what do you know that the experts in the area don't?


Actually particularly the SA strain, why does that not bother you? Have you a reason to believe the in vitro experiments will not be replicated?? There is a reason countries are banning travel from this area on the back of the preliminary results. What background do you have in science?

Schools should open of course, but the same rules do not apply as before christmas.

Increase in Fatality of 1.65 not a concern because the base is so low and all the at risk people will be vaccinated in next 2 months.

The SA strain does not bother me because I have faith in the mRNA technology and Moderna have already announced today their vaccine is still effective against it.

Like I said - I’m not worried.

wirelessdude01

km79 wrote: »

What was your take on it ?

My take is also that they have no clue what is to be announced tomorrow. Personally think another two week holding pattern to mid-term which buys them more time.

Second level will probably get some definite information either tomorrow or later in the week. Cancellation of JC might be confirmed tomorrow(subject them agreeing how to possibly grade it). Leaving orals, aurals and practicals probably later in the week. Those need immediate clarification if you ask me.

Stateofyou

World leaders are closing borders, making announcements about the problematic new strains (including MM), introducing travel bans, mandating higher spec ppe for people even going outside, keeping schools closed, etc so I'm sure Theboinkmaster will forgive me if uniformed opinions aren't being swallowed.

downthemiddle

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Increase in Fatality of 1.65 not a concern because the base is so low and all the at risk people will be vaccinated in next 2 months.

The SA strain does not bother me because I have faith in the mRNA technology and Moderna have already announced today their vaccine is still effective against it.

Like I said - I’m not worried.

As long as you are happy..........

am_zarathustra

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Increase in Fatality of 1.65 not a concern because the base is so low and all the at risk people will be vaccinated in next 2 months.

The SA strain does not bother me because I have faith in the mRNA technology and Moderna have already announced today their vaccine is still effective against it.

Like I said - I’m not worried.

Modern a literally announced their was diminished response in the assay, that's what I've been talking about. They've started to look at developing another part to the two dose model to account for this.

What is your background in science because your reading this data in a very different way than someone with a background in biological sciences would?? Everyone I know, including people working in these companies and a rake of immunologists, molecular geneticists and virologists, is concerned. New varients are appearing quickly, the british one isn't a worry but the SA one possibly is.....eventually there will be one worse, the number of people infected and number of virla particles will dictate the time if we allow it

Also the 1.65 increase is a follow through of increased icu bed need, this means fundamentally we have to alter numbers to protect the health system. If we could send schools back with 1000 cases before and maintain capacity, with the dominance of a strain like this we would need a much lower number now. This is fairly basic extrapolation and I think all the scientist have been quite clear about this.

Just because you say it's ok it doesn't make it so. Show me your data that shows the varients do not have an effect on ICU levels and that all vaccines (remember they are all different) work exactly as they do with the initial varient? I'll even accept in vitro work for this because I already know that it doesn't exist for one of the varients

Theboinkmaster

Stateofyou wrote: »

World leaders are closing borders, making announcements about the problematic new strains (including MM), introducing travel bans, mandating higher spec ppe for people even going outside, keeping schools closed, etc so I'm sure Theboinkmaster will forgive me if uniformed opinions aren't being swallowed.

Ah relax none of that is new and are going on since 2020.

You know what’s new for 2021 - vaccines, multiples of them.

It’s going to be grand.

Theboinkmaster

am_zarathustra wrote: »

Modern a literally announced their was diminished response in the assay, that's what I've been talking about. They've started to look at developing another part to the two dose model to account for this.

What is your background in science because your reading this data in a very different way than someone with a background in biological sciences would?? Everyone I know, including people working in these companies and a rake of immunologists, molecular geneticists and virologists, is concerned. New varients are appearing quickly, the british one isn't a worry but the SA one possibly is.....eventually there will be one worse, the number of people infected and number of virla particles will dictate the time if we allow it

Also the 1.65 increase is a follow through of increased icu bed need, this means fundamentally we have to alter numbers to protect the health system. If we could send schools back with 1000 cases before and maintain capacity, with the dominance of a strain like this we would need a much lower number now. This is fairly basic extrapolation and I think all the scientist have been quite clear about this.

Just because you say it's ok it doesn't make it so. Show me your data that shows the varients do not have an effect on ICU levels and that all vaccines (remember they are all different) work exactly as they do with the initial varient? I'll even accept in vitro work for this because I already know that it doesn't exist for one of the varients

Most of that is true I agree, but I do still think it’s going to be grand and I’m not too concerned.

Stateofyou

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Ah relax none of that is new and are going on since 2020.

You know what’s new for 2021 - vaccines, multiples of them.

It’s going to be grand.

It's ALL new as a matter of fact, and as a direct result of the new strains. You seem painfully uniformed and blasé.

Either way, pretty far off the school topic now.

Theboinkmaster

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

I'm beginning to wonder if one of our new contributors was kicked out of another Covid thread and decided that we needed their 'wisdom' in here.

I can post in any COVID thread I want and have posted in this thread loads so not a “new” contributor.

Thanks for your post though very helpful.