2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Timing belt

BredonWimsey wrote: »

the reality is and I'm sure the real estate wheeler and dealers on here wont want to hear this - but people will be leaving dublin. maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but they will leave.

Meanwhile you'll be stuck trying to justify a 650k asking price for a standard dublin apartment.

off you go.

and yes this wheeling and dealing and conspiring to keep prices as high as they are will backfire....eventually.

Sorry Not sorry

will the last person switch off the lights?

BredonWimsey

Timing belt wrote: »

will the last person switch off the lights?

its just strange to me that everyone on here is delighted with the fact that prices are so high and offer little value in what you are getting compared to elsewhere.



why dont you just rename your thread VESTED INTEREST IN KEEPING DUBLIN PROPERTY PRICES HIGH


and then YOU can turn off the lights.

Timing belt

BredonWimsey wrote: »

its just strange to me that everyone on here is delighted with the fact that prices are so high and offer little value in what you are getting compared to elsewhere.



why dont you just rename your thread INVESTED INTEREST IN KEEPING DUBLIN PROPERTY PRICES HIGH


and then you can turn off the lights.

who's delighted with high prices??? what have you been smoking or sniffing with your rants!!!

BredonWimsey

Timing belt wrote: »

who's delighted with high prices??? what have you been smoking or sniffing with your rants!!!

haha. ok sorry. thats the impression i got.


anyway enjoy your evening. (and the property prices lol)

Graham

Mod Note

BredonWimsey please improve the standard of your posts if you wish to continue posting. This is not the general whinge about property prices thread.

Do not reply to this post.

Timing belt

BredonWimsey wrote: »

haha. ok sorry. thats the impression i got.


anyway enjoy your evening. (and the property prices lol)

Average price of a 2 bed apartment in canary wharf in London is about 650k..

The price of housing in cities is an issue in most countries. And just to be clear that I am not saying that they should cost so much I am just point out that Dublin is not the only place that is experiencing this issue.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Average price of a 2 bed apartment in canary wharf in London is about 650k..

The price of housing in cities is an issue in most countries. And just to be clear that I am not saying that they should cost so much I am just point out that Dublin is not the only place that is experiencing this issue.

I’m not sure that argument stands. London is a real city and Greater London has a population about twice the size of Ireland in an area about one and a half times the size of Co. Dublin.

Outside a few areas, it’s also not that high rise and they still appear to have more and better parks than Dublin has (the park thing is a guess from the times I’ve been there).

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

I’m not sure that argument stands. London is a real city and Greater London has a population about twice the size of Ireland in an area about one and a half times the size of Co. Dublin.

Outside a few areas, it’s also not that high rise and they still appear to have more and better parks than Dublin has (the park thing is a guess from the times I’ve been there).

Yes London is bigger no one is disputing that but if you are working in London it is as hard to buy as it is in Dublin is the point that I am making.

combat14

Major investor in Dublin real estate looks to exit the capital

https://amp.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/major-investor-in-dublin-real-estate-looks-to-exit-the-capital-40010355.html

interesting to see .. possibly due to financial issues this time but who knows..

Timing belt

combat14 wrote: »

Major investor in Dublin real estate looks to exit the capital

https://amp.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/major-investor-in-dublin-real-estate-looks-to-exit-the-capital-40010355.html

interesting to see .. possibly due to financial issues this time but who knows..

I don't think there will be any shortage of other investors looking for a seat at the table most of the real estate funds are expecting to pick up Commercial real Estate assets at bargain this year. (That was according to an update in Dec)

Graham

combat14 wrote: »

Major investor in Dublin real estate looks to exit the capital

https://amp.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/major-investor-in-dublin-real-estate-looks-to-exit-the-capital-40010355.html

interesting to see .. possibly due to financial issues this time but who knows..

"possibly" related to the fact its US parent company began selling assets after one of its investment arms defaulted on a €3.2bn loan secured on a portfolio of hotels and nursing homes hit by the pandemic.


You could be clutching at straws here but who knows :pac:

PommieBast

combat14 wrote: »

Major investor in Dublin real estate looks to exit the capital

https://amp.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/major-investor-in-dublin-real-estate-looks-to-exit-the-capital-40010355.html

interesting to see .. possibly due to financial issues this time but who knows..

Not really surprised. Think Ronan Group have a site or two in Spencer Dock as well, and that area is turning into a right glut.

Winterstale

My last post on property was made in April 2020. At that time there was almost a frenzied narrative that prices would drop like never before. I was one of very few who disagreed (and not many agreed with me). Many self proclaimed experts told people on this forum - 'dont buy now, wait a few months and prices will tank by 20%'etc. I went ahead will my purchase and I'm glad I did.
My point is use common sense, treat advice here scepticaly and if you have an opportunity to proceed then proceed. Time waits for no man or Woman. See below thread from April last year.

Quote: Winterstale
This is completely different to 2008. One obvious difference is there is a housing shortage and this will not change in next number of years. Over supply and over priced properties in 2008 is not the case now. Property prices are still 20% below the 2006 peek. A modest dip is possible/probable but will be quick to recover as the economy gets moving again and even if there was a dip (nowhere near 20%) price is relative if buying and selling a house. If your property is devalued by X amount, so is the property you wish to purchase so again its all relative. A correct price for a property is the price you are willing to pay now. I have gone sale agreed with my own property and sale agreed with a new home. I am proceeding as I am not an investor looking to profiteer on the market. I am simply moving to a more suitable home. This is not the first time I have bought and sold a property and I am very happy to proceed as are a lot of people. If you are fortunate enough to have a secure income during this crisis, I would proceed.

REPLY I RECIEVED- It is different to 2008 .. a lot worse!
The shortage will evaporate. Already lots of Googlers/Linkedin/Facebook types who were renting are gone, never to return. Airbnb is gone for at least 2 years thus flooding the market with rentals. Comparing prices to 2006/08 is irrelevant. We are facing mass unemployment akin to the 80s. Likely that there will be an exodus of youth and highly qualified people thus dampning demand.
Great for you if you want to proceed. Having sold and bought multiple times my strong advice to anybody in a position to pull out of a Sale Agreed (on a purchase) is to do so. Go ahead on your sale if the buyer is happy and then rent for a year and then pounce. The EAs are stressed and getting desperate.. even in the past 48 hours I have got multiple calls from EAs looking for me to bid on some houses I viewed 3 months ago.
It'll be a great opportunity in a years time to buy.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks for that.


It's just a few posters were stating that the yield accepted by these large funds was much lower than the yield acceptable to the small BTL landlord. Made sense given the amount of money flowing their way.


But, apparently the funds are achieving near enough the same yield as the small BTL landlord which means there's no incentive for either to be leaving the market at the moment unless they believe both rents and property values will collapse in the near future.



Ires Reit's Gross Yield in 2020 was 5.7%.


Link here: https://investorrelations.iresreit.ie/sites/ires-ir/files/reports-presentation/presentations/interim-results-2020.pdf

Interesting article on institutional investors... Thought you would be interested in the following Quote as it highlights 3.75% Yield on multi-family investments.

"The Europe-wide phenomenon on low investment yields is also driving more money into new markets, where prime yields for multi-family investment held firm at 3.75pc through 2020, according to CBRE."

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/cuckoo-funds-now-own-15500-homes-in-ireland-after-latest-175bn-splurge-40016057.html

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Interesting article on institutional investors... Thought you would be interested in the following Quote as it highlights 3.75% Yield on multi-family investments.

"The Europe-wide phenomenon on low investment yields is also driving more money into new markets, where prime yields for multi-family investment held firm at 3.75pc through 2020, according to CBRE."

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/cuckoo-funds-now-own-15500-homes-in-ireland-after-latest-175bn-splurge-40016057.html

Thanks for the link. It did make sense that these investors would accept a much lower yield given the amount of cash coming their way and the type of properties they are purchasing.

How does CBRE define "prime yield" though?

If the prime yield only applies to the luxury developments, the SBP has done a couple of articles on that in the past year on how many of their units are empty, so the "prime yield" they're apparently achieving is makey-uppy stuff IMO

The interesting line was "The same investors are also increasingly interested in buying properties to lease to local authorities or Approved Housing Bodies, CBRE said."

I think the opposition should get the details on how reliant these cuckoo funds are on the state for renting/leasing their properties.

JimmyVik

BredonWimsey wrote: »

um if you actually speak to people in dublin - you ill see how dissatisfied they are with paying these prices and you will also see how remote working is giving them the advantage of working from home with Dublin companies and they can work anywhere now.


Doesnt take a psychic or genius - but if you want to be flippant thats up to you.


why does my comment bother you though? not happy that people arent willing to pay this anymore or may have more options in the future?

Never in history, anywhere in thew world has anyone been happy with the amount they pay in rent.
Ive even heard people in council houses who paid about €5 a week complaining about how their rent was going up by €0,50.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks for the link. It did make sense that these investors would accept a much lower yield given the amount of cash coming their way and the type of properties they are purchasing.

How does CBRE define "prime yield" though?

If the prime yield only applies to the luxury developments, the SBP has done a couple of articles on that in the past year on how many of their units are empty, so the "prime yield" they're apparently achieving is makey-uppy stuff IMO

The interesting line was "The same investors are also increasingly interested in buying properties to lease to local authorities or Approved Housing Bodies, CBRE said."

I think the opposition should get the details on how reliant these cuckoo funds are on the state for renting/leasing their properties.

It would be interesting to know but I think the opposition would rather not know because if they did then they may have to do something about it....

Bass Reeves

Winterstale wrote: »

My last post on property was made in April 2020. At that time there was almost a frenzied narrative that prices would drop like never before. I was one of very few who disagreed (and not many agreed with me). Many self proclaimed experts told people on this forum - 'dont buy now, wait a few months and prices will tank by 20%'etc. I went ahead will my purchase and I'm glad I did.
My point is use common sense, treat advice here scepticaly and if you have an opportunity to proceed then proceed. Time waits for no man or Woman. See below thread from April last year.

Quote: Winterstale
This is completely different to 2008. One obvious difference is there is a housing shortage and this will not change in next number of years. Over supply and over priced properties in 2008 is not the case now. Property prices are still 20% below the 2006 peek. A modest dip is possible/probable but will be quick to recover as the economy gets moving again and even if there was a dip (nowhere near 20%) price is relative if buying and selling a house. If your property is devalued by X amount, so is the property you wish to purchase so again its all relative. A correct price for a property is the price you are willing to pay now. I have gone sale agreed with my own property and sale agreed with a new home. I am proceeding as I am not an investor looking to profiteer on the market. I am simply moving to a more suitable home. This is not the first time I have bought and sold a property and I am very happy to proceed as are a lot of people. If you are fortunate enough to have a secure income during this crisis, I would proceed.

REPLY I RECIEVED- It is different to 2008 .. a lot worse!
The shortage will evaporate. Already lots of Googlers/Linkedin/Facebook types who were renting are gone, never to return. Airbnb is gone for at least 2 years thus flooding the market with rentals. Comparing prices to 2006/08 is irrelevant. We are facing mass unemployment akin to the 80s. Likely that there will be an exodus of youth and highly qualified people thus dampning demand.
Great for you if you want to proceed. Having sold and bought multiple times my strong advice to anybody in a position to pull out of a Sale Agreed (on a purchase) is to do so. Go ahead on your sale if the buyer is happy and then rent for a year and then pounce. The EAs are stressed and getting desperate.. even in the past 48 hours I have got multiple calls from EAs looking for me to bid on some houses I viewed 3 months ago.
It'll be a great opportunity in a years time to buy.

And they were still spouting these supposed facts from May to November even when it was.obivious the market was steady and climbing if anything

fliball123

Winterstale wrote: »

My last post on property was made in April 2020. At that time there was almost a frenzied narrative that prices would drop like never before. I was one of very few who disagreed (and not many agreed with me). Many self proclaimed experts told people on this forum - 'dont buy now, wait a few months and prices will tank by 20%'etc. I went ahead will my purchase and I'm glad I did.
My point is use common sense, treat advice here scepticaly and if you have an opportunity to proceed then proceed. Time waits for no man or Woman. See below thread from April last year.

Quote: Winterstale
This is completely different to 2008. One obvious difference is there is a housing shortage and this will not change in next number of years. Over supply and over priced properties in 2008 is not the case now. Property prices are still 20% below the 2006 peek. A modest dip is possible/probable but will be quick to recover as the economy gets moving again and even if there was a dip (nowhere near 20%) price is relative if buying and selling a house. If your property is devalued by X amount, so is the property you wish to purchase so again its all relative. A correct price for a property is the price you are willing to pay now. I have gone sale agreed with my own property and sale agreed with a new home. I am proceeding as I am not an investor looking to profiteer on the market. I am simply moving to a more suitable home. This is not the first time I have bought and sold a property and I am very happy to proceed as are a lot of people. If you are fortunate enough to have a secure income during this crisis, I would proceed.

REPLY I RECIEVED- It is different to 2008 .. a lot worse!
The shortage will evaporate. Already lots of Googlers/Linkedin/Facebook types who were renting are gone, never to return. Airbnb is gone for at least 2 years thus flooding the market with rentals. Comparing prices to 2006/08 is irrelevant. We are facing mass unemployment akin to the 80s. Likely that there will be an exodus of youth and highly qualified people thus dampning demand.
Great for you if you want to proceed. Having sold and bought multiple times my strong advice to anybody in a position to pull out of a Sale Agreed (on a purchase) is to do so. Go ahead on your sale if the buyer is happy and then rent for a year and then pounce. The EAs are stressed and getting desperate.. even in the past 48 hours I have got multiple calls from EAs looking for me to bid on some houses I viewed 3 months ago.
It'll be a great opportunity in a years time to buy.

Congrats on your new purchase and there should be a mods warning to anyone on this thread in particular (as a lot of peoples theories and IMOs are put down as fact) like you I bought and sold last year and took a breath of about 4 months to proceed mainly due to the speculation that was going on in this thread. I did my homework on supply , demand and was buying and selling so I had it in my head if properties drop by 5% (which is what I thought back in March last year) it would not make much of a difference to me and went ahead and bought and like you, I am so glade I did. So anyone looking at this place for advice need to do their own research and look at their own finance and personal situation and do whats best for them. Congrats again I hope you are like me as I am like a pig in sh1t here bought a bigger place bit of land and I can tell you the lockdown experience compared this time to last year is completely different (much better) I dont feel like a sardine stuck in the tin.

MacronvFrugals

Mel Reynolds speaking about the shared equity scheme

This scheme allows first-time buyers to compete for expensive, newly-built homes in Dublin but that mightn’t necessarily be in their best interests

The problem is that most apartments under construction in Dublin are high-end, build-to-rent homes, he says.
It is difficult to get finance to build housing for sale when “yield-hungry private equity firms are paying high prices”,

“Why incentivize ordinary consumers to start bidding against investment firms at a time when assets are approaching all-time highs?”

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/01/27/government-s-shared-equity-housing-scheme-may-breach-central-bank-rules

JimmyVik

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Mel Reynolds speaking about the shared equity scheme


https://dublininquirer.com/2021/01/27/government-s-shared-equity-housing-scheme-may-breach-central-bank-rules

Its a total farce. Someone definitely getting backhanders for bringing in this scheme.

And what about the people who dont want to have to get shared equity to compete.
Hardly fair on them either.

MacronvFrugals

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its a total farce. Someone definitely getting backhanders for bringing in this scheme.

And what about the people who dont want to have to get shared equity to compete.
Hardly fair on them either.

Property Industry Ireland by way of the lobbyist's IBEC


a who's who of the people who want to increase affordability for normal folks

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its a total farce. Someone definitely getting backhanders for bringing in this scheme.

And what about the people who dont want to have to get shared equity to compete.
Hardly fair on them either.

And Cairn Homes already stated that their average selling price during 2020 was c. €350k (incl. VAT). That means they must have been selling at least some of their A-rated new built units for around the c €300k mark including VAT during 2020.

Private developers in Dublin have already proven they can buy the land, build them, pay all the taxes, levies etc. and still sell them for under €350k including VAT and still make a decent profit.

There appears to be absolutely no point to this new scheme outside of attempting to artificially increase prices in Dublin IMO

fliball123

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Property Industry Ireland by way of the lobbyist's IBEC


a who's who of the people who want to increase affordability for normal folks

Have you a list of people who cant afford to buy in Dublin and that with the scheme they can? There has been a lot of whinging about affordability in Dublin and about how people have to compete with REITS and the council for property does this not give an advantage to the FTB who are buying.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

I am like a pig in sh1t here bought a bigger place bit of land and I can tell you the lockdown experience compared this time to last year is completely different (much better) I dont feel like a sardine stuck in the tin.

How noble of you to remind renters stuck in poky overpriced sardine tins with no chance of affording their own place of your good fortune

A good dose of fear, grreed, money printing and government subsidies helps to fatten pigs

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

How noble of you to remind renters stuck in poky overpriced sardine tins with no chance of affording their own place of your good fortune

A good dose of fear, grreed, money printing and government subsidies helps to fatten pigs

Sorry if it came across like that I was just explaining my personal situation and how by not actually listening to the conspiracy theories on this thread and looking at the hard facts which lead me to making an informed choice which has bettered my life. I dont live in Dublin so thats a choice I took, there are still around 4.5k properties available for sale on myhome for up and under 200k. If people want to be in a bigger place maybe they will have to sacrifice on location. At least I am not making up facts and telling people to buy or to sell unlike some posters on here

jr1942

One thing that surely doesn't make sense is building social housing in the city centre, ie. D8 for people who can't be bothered working, while people who do work and want to work then have to travel to the same D8 from 50km away. I can swallow everything else, the lack of availability the what not, but cant swallow that. Makes no sense.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you a list of people who cant afford to buy in Dublin and that with the scheme they can? There has been a lot of whinging about affordability in Dublin and about how people have to compete with REITS and the council for property does this not give an advantage to the FTB who are buying.

But would FTBs really have to compete with the funds, REITS etc. if the local councils weren't agreeing to pay up to €3,000 per month per apartment over the next 25 years for the completed units e.g. Herbert Hill in Dundrum.


I don't think the funds, REITS etc., would be willing to pay the amount they are currently willing to pay without this guaranteed or implicit Government back-stop on the amount of rent they can be guaranteed to collect over the next 25 years.


FTBs aren't competing against funds, REITS etc. They're competing against the state at every level i.e. renting, buying etc.

PropQueries

jr1942 wrote: »

One thing that surely doesn't make sense is building social housing in the city centre, ie. D8 for people who can't be bothered working, while people who do work and want to work then have to travel to the same D8 from 50km away. I can swallow everything else, the lack of availability the what not, but cant swallow that. Makes no sense.

By that logic, Dublin would be a big empty field today as many of the residential areas in Dublin include a significant amount of social housing built from the 1950s through the 1980s.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

Sorry if it came across like that I was just explaining my personal situation
........
At least I am not making up facts and telling people to buy or to sell unlike some posters on here

Understood
..............

You can't make up facts

The property market is a mess, largely driven by Government policy being advised by the industry to the detriment of the country and especially the countries young workers