2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Marius34

GeoDirectory expects completion of 19,300 for 2020:

"In terms of housing supply, the CSO reported that the total number of new dwellings
completed in the four quarters to Q3 2020 was 19,719 units, down 2.2% on the
corresponding period to Q3 2019. The total level of completions in 2020 is expected to
be around 19,300 compared with the 21,107 completed units in 2019."

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

GeoDirectory expects completion of 19,300 for 2020:

"In terms of housing supply, the CSO reported that the total number of new dwellings
completed in the four quarters to Q3 2020 was 19,719 units, down 2.2% on the
corresponding period to Q3 2019. The total level of completions in 2020 is expected to
be around 19,300 compared with the 21,107 completed units in 2019."

Expected so its a forecast as I say lets see the scores on the doors in Feb.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Latest GeoDirectory report out.



The data indeed here in January. On completions - "In the 12 months to December 2020, a total of 21,851 new residential address points were added to the GeoDirectory database"

So a good bit more than your 16k estimate, and actually pretty close to PropQueries estimate:



So are you going to hold your hands up and say you were wrong and PropQueries was bang on?

Do you know when an “address point” is created? Is it only done when a unit is finished? Or is it done at an earlier stage? Does it mean there are 21k extra units ready to go?

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Well lets see what the figure is in Feb as I say if I got it terribly wrong I will hold my hand up. But a commencement is not a completion and cannot be added to the figures of housing stock available for sale or rent in 2020 and the link showed 21k commencements I reckon some of those 21k will not be completed until 2021 and will be part of the 2021 completion or new stock available for sale/rent

Fair enough.

awec

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you know when an “address point” is created? Is it only done when a unit is finished? Or is it done at an earlier stage? Does it mean there are 21k extra units ready to go?

I believe it means that there were commencement notices issued for 21k properties in 2020.

Commencement notice is required before development can start.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you know when an “address point” is created? Is it only done when a unit is finished? Or is it done at an earlier stage? Does it mean there are 21k extra units ready to go?

From previous reading of Geodirectory, I thought it was a new address that receives post.

Maybe awec can help?

awec wrote: »

Commencements are properties where development has just started. They are a leading indicator of future supply.

The report calls out that commencements have fallen sharply. This is not a surprise, given that during all the covid mess the priority for developers would have been to finish off existing development to get money flowing in. But it does indicate that supply is going to be lower next year.

2020 vs 2019:
Completions were down a bit.
Under construction was higher.
Commencements down sharply.

Are new address points = under construction?

JimmyVik

awec wrote: »

I believe it means that there were commencement notices issued for 21k properties in 2020.

Commencement notice is required before development can start.

I could walk down the road here for 10 minutes or so and pass at least 500 if not more houses and apartments that were commenced since Jan 2020, but have had nothing at all done on them since last March. Like ghost towns.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

I believe it means that there were commencement notices issued for 21k properties in 2020.

Commencement notice is required before development can start.

That can't be right if commencements are down sharply.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

From previous reading of Geodirectory, I thought it was a new address that receives post.

Maybe awec can help?



Are new address points = under construction?

Honestly not sure, but I would imagine address points can be created any time after planning is finalised.

JimmyVik wrote: »

I could walk down the road here for 10 minutes or so and pass at least 500 if not more houses and apartments that were commenced since Jan 2020, but have had nothing at all done on them since last March. Like ghost towns.

This is likely to be fairly common. The real impact of covid on construction will be felt in the coming years as delayed commencements have a knock on effect.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

That can't be right if commencements are down sharply.

Why not?

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

That can't be right if commencements are down sharply.

'Covid 19 did result in a lower level of transactions across the 26 counties, while on the supply side, the Covid 19 restrictions and the closure of sites for 7 weeks on 28 March slowed the construction process. Yet overall, the outturn for new supply looks likely to be close to 19,300, well above the 14,000 - 16,000 range projected back in March/April 2020. However, new starts or commencements, a leading indicator of future supply, were down 16.1% in the 12 months to November 2020. This trend is likely to have a knock-on impact on the level of supply in 2021'

Taken from page 3 of the report

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Why not?

If commencements are down sharply and but address points are not, it seems likely that commencements are not the same as address points.

fliball123

awec wrote: »

Honestly not sure, but I would imagine address points can be created any time after planning is finalised.



This is likely to be fairly common. The real impact of covid on construction will be felt in the coming years as delayed commencements have a knock on effect.

which is why I dont think we will see the predicted 21k at the start of the year or the 18.5k predicted back in September. We were in lockdown for a fair portion of Q4 completions up to Q3 were 14.5k, then throw xmas and bad weather into the mix. LIke I say I put down 16k It may be a bit more than this and if I am wrong I will say it but I was also taking into account the commencement levels went right down in 2020.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

'Covid 19 did result in a lower level of transactions across the 26 counties, while on the supply side, the Covid 19 restrictions and the closure of sites for 7 weeks on 28 March slowed the construction process. Yet overall, the outturn for new supply looks likely to be close to 19,300, well above the 14,000 - 16,000 range projected back in March/April 2020. However, new starts or commencements, a leading indicator of future supply, were down 16.1% in the 12 months to November 2020. This trend is likely to have a knock-on impact on the level of supply in 2021'

Taken from page 3 of the report

And how is that relevant to what you quoted?

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

And how is that relevant to what you quoted?

My understanding is that they are talking about completions in this paragraph.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

My understanding is that they are talking about completions in this paragraph.

And how is that relevant to the post of mine you quoted?

awec

schmittel wrote: »

If commencements are down sharply and but address points are not, it seems likely that commencements are not the same as address points.

To be honest, I don't know what "address point" really means in this context. Unfortunately the report doesn't really explain it.

I would be very surprised though if "commencements" in the report did not directly correlate to commencement notices. It would not make sense to be anything else.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

To be honest, I don't know what "address point" really means in this context.

There were 19k completions, so an extra 2k addresses. Maybe the extra could be self-builders from 2019 only getting around to registering their addresses in 2020? I don't really know.

I would be very surprised though if "commencements" in the report did not directly correlate to commencement notices. It would not make sense to be anything else.

For sure I'd agree that commencements = commencement notices. Just don't think address points is the same thing.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

For sure I'd agree that commencements = commencement notices. Just don't think address points is the same thing.

Oh I agree. Address points I don't know, unfortunately the report doesn't explain it and it doesn't appear to be a standard term.

Are addresses officially registered separately to eircodes? I know when our house was built it took months for us to get an eircode.

fliball123

awec wrote: »

To be honest, I don't know what "address point" really means in this context. Unfortunately the report doesn't really explain it.

I would be very surprised though if "commencements" in the report did not directly correlate to commencement notices. It would not make sense to be anything else.

Isnt there a seperate figure for commencements? I think CSO count a dwelling complete once the ESB has been hooked up.

PropQueries

I think people are just looking at commencements and assuming demand will not be impacted.

All the pre-covid projections for housing demand in 2020 and 2021 were based on net inward migration being c. 30,000 for both of these years i.e. 60,000.

Given that that’s not very likely now, and supply hasn’t exactly fallen off a cliff, any fall in commencements should have a negligible impact on supply/demand for housing over the next few years IMO

Supply vs demand should actually be improving?

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Oh I agree. Address points I don't know, unfortunately the report doesn't explain it and it doesn't appear to be a standard term.

Are addresses officially registered separately to eircodes? I know when our house was built it took months for us to get an eircode.

No idea about eircodes. Would not trust them.

We got a letter delivered to our house proudly informing us about our new eircode - turns out the eircode finder maps that eircode to a house about 30 miles away!

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

I think people are just looking at commencements and assuming demand will not be impacted.

All the pre-covid projections for housing demand in 2020 and 2021 were based on net inward migration being c. 30,000 for both of these years i.e. 60,000.

Given that that’s not very likely now, and supply hasn’t exactly fallen off a cliff, any fall in commencements should have a negligible impact on supply/demand for housing over the next few years IMO

Supply vs demand should actually be improving?

It is very difficult to quantify demand like you can supply.

If you believe demand is going to drop by at least 15% of what it is today then you may see improvements.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

It is very difficult to quantify demand like you can supply.

If you believe demand is going to drop by at least 15% of what it is today then you may see improvements.

Dublin demand was dropping pre covid evidenced by falling prices and volume, unsold new builds etc.

On the face of it seems like Covid has lifted demand because of rising prices - but is this really because of increased demand or is it reduced supply?

Prop makes fair points that pre Covid projections are a but useless at least in the short term.

If demand was dropping pre Covid, factor in covid related challenges, and it does not seem that crazy to imagine demand might drop by 15% (in Dublin) when all this washes through.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Dublin demand was dropping pre covid evidenced by falling prices and volume, unsold new builds etc.

On the face of it seems like Covid has lifted demand because of rising prices - but is this really because of increased demand or is it reduced supply?

Prop makes fair points that pre Covid projections are a but useless at least in the short term.

If demand was dropping pre Covid, factor in covid related challenges, and it does not seem that crazy to imagine demand might drop by 15% (in Dublin) when all this washes through.

Well you also have to take into account I reckon a lot of people pulled back from buying due to Brexit you only have to look on this site at some of the posts about it and some thought it was going to be doom and gloom once it was completed. Its hard to know what way it will wash out once Covid is over

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

For sure I'd agree that commencements = commencement notices. Just don't think address points is the same thing.

This is what I want to know. What does it mean - does developer need address at time utilities are being connect in order to link MPRN / GPRN with an address (or eircode). Also how do these measure look over a 3 or 4 year period as we know commencements, completions, sales etc do not happen within calendar years.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Well you also have to take into account I reckon a lot of people pulled back from buying due to Brexit you only have to look on this site at some of the posts about it and some thought it was going to be doom and gloom once it was completed. Its hard to know what way it will wash out once Covid is over

If you're working of the assumption that a lot of people were price/demand sensitive enough to hold off buying due to uncertain economic impact of Brexit, now they can throw in the uncertain economic impact of recovering from a pandemic on top.

Hard to know what way it will wash out for sure, but seems unlikely those same people are now thinking "Well Brexit looks like it will be a breeze, and this covid thing is a bit of a nothing burger."

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

This is what I want to know. What does it mean - does developer need address at time utilities are being connect in order to link MPRN / GPRN with an address (or eircode). Also how do these measure look over a 3 or 4 year period as we know commencements, completions, sales etc do not happen within calendar years.

I want to know too. Have tried to search for a definition without luck. I have always assumed that "new address point" means habitable completed house, as it is registered at that stage with an post to receive utility bills etc. That makes more sense to me than it is a property under construction.

But other posters disagree, and since we often find it hard enough to agree on stuff that has verifiable data, I doubt we'll find common ground on this point!

PropQueries

I think Brexit was just a handy excuse for the lack of predicted demand in 2018/2019.

But David McWilliams made a great point a few months back (IMO), that the pubs, restaurants, hotels etc. in the city are highly dependent upon the international business travel customers between Monday and Thursday each week and that’s probably not going to return to anywhere near pre-covid levels going forward with companies now used to using Zoom etc.

This is most likely a permanent long-term fall in the weekday business for these businesses/hotels etc. in the city and hence their demand for workers and then those workers demand for housing in the city.

random_banter

schmittel wrote: »

Dublin demand was dropping pre covid evidenced by falling prices and volume, unsold new builds etc.

On the face of it seems like Covid has lifted demand because of rising prices - but is this really because of increased demand or is it reduced supply?

Prop makes fair points that pre Covid projections are a but useless at least in the short term.

If demand was dropping pre Covid, factor in covid related challenges, and it does not seem that crazy to imagine demand might drop by 15% (in Dublin) when all this washes through.

This would be my theory which I posted a few pages back. Less people selling second hand homes at the moment, driven mostly by Covid uncertainty and then you have the lack of supply for them to trade up/down to, bit of a catch 22 situation occurring. Have been seeing this decrease in supply for months now. The majority of what we see (which is very little) coming up in South Dublin is executor sales at the moment, and lots of bidding well well over asking. I'm tracking them all on the PPR to see how it ends up, but I know that there are selling price significant jumps on equivalent (and often currently inferior) properties since 2018/19 and would be putting it down to Covid since we know there was a peak into a plateau and decline in 2019.

Then you have things like the article in the Indo posted earlier supporting this theory, many people unwilling to have their house shown during the pandemic.

It's a seller's market at the mo for those who do decide to sell, that's for certain. We've decided to hold off on buying ourselves but I'm still encountering many desperate bidders.