2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

I think people are just looking at commencements and assuming demand will not be impacted.

All the pre-covid projections for housing demand in 2020 and 2021 were based on net inward migration being c. 30,000 for both of these years i.e. 60,000.

Given that that’s not very likely now, and supply hasn’t exactly fallen off a cliff, any fall in commencements should have a negligible impact on supply/demand for housing over the next few years IMO

Supply vs demand should actually be improving?

Do you not think that will be back with a vengeance when covid is no longer an issue?

PommieBast

PropQueries wrote: »

I think Brexit was just a handy excuse for the lack of predicted demand in 2018/2019.

Quite a U-turn given that Brexit was used to pump prices 2016-2018.

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

Do you not think that will be back with a vengeance when covid is no longer an issue?

I just don't believe tourism, construction, FDI etc. will be back to pre-covid levels for a few years yet (I could be wrong).

Supply isn't going to be curtailed too much either over the coming few years IMO.

It won't be like after the last crash as all these sites are ready to go and can be fired up fairly quickly if demand did return.

Last time, we had to go through the whole rigmarole of introducing tax breaks, setting up NAMA, selling the sites to funds, REITS etc. in order to re-start building. Next time will most definitely be different IMO

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

I think Brexit was just a handy excuse for the lack of predicted demand in 2018/2019.

But David McWilliams made a great point a few months back (IMO), that the pubs, restaurants, hotels etc. in the city are highly dependent upon the international business travel customers between Monday and Thursday each week and that’s probably not going to return to anywhere near pre-covid levels going forward with companies now used to using Zoom etc.

This is most likely a permanent long-term fall in the weekday business for these businesses/hotels etc. in the city and hence their demand for workers and then those workers demand for housing in the city.

Hotels could be busy if people decided to check in for one night so they can do 2 days in the office and 3 days WFH.

Ozark707

Timing belt wrote: »

Hotels could be busy if people decided to check in for one night so they can do 2 days in the office and 3 days WFH.

If people have to fork out themselves for that they will probably look for the cheapest option, so they won't be spending anything near the amounts that business travellers used to. My peers in US/EU used to be amazed at the price of hotel rooms here when they would come over.

fliball123

Ozark707 wrote: »

If people have to fork out themselves for that they will probably look for the cheapest option, so they won't be spending anything near the amounts that business travellers used to. My peers in US/EU used to be amazed at the price of hotel rooms here when they would come over.

How much would a hotel in New York cost in comparison?

Richmond Ultra

Does anyone know when the houses that are currently being built opposite St Colmcilles school in Knocklyon, just off Junction 12 will be on the market and what they will be called. Walked by it the other day and couldn't see any billboard advertising them?

Ozark707

fliball123 wrote: »

How much would a hotel in New York cost in comparison?

A lot more, not sure of the point you are making. Are you comparing NY and Dublin?

fliball123

Ozark707 wrote: »

A lot more, not sure of the point you are making. Are you comparing NY and Dublin?

Just making the point that cities that people like to visit will have a premium

https://www.irishcentral.com/travel/best-of-ireland/dublin-among-the-top-50-most-visited-cities-in-the-world#:~:text=Dublin%20is%20among%20the%20top,Johor%20Bahru%20at%20number%2042.

Cyrus

Ozark707 wrote: »

If people have to fork out themselves for that they will probably look for the cheapest option, so they won't be spending anything near the amounts that business travellers used to. My peers in US/EU used to be amazed at the price of hotel rooms here when they would come over.

we can repurpose student accommodation then, big opportunities there,

hotels will play their part.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

we can repurpose student accommodation then, big opportunities there,

hotels will play their part.

They're way ahead of you

According to the Irish Times back in October:

"Permission has been granted to convert up to 1,600 student accommodation beds across Dublin city into tourist or short-term worker apartments for the current academic year."

Link to the Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/tourists-and-renters-to-be-permitted-in-student-accommodation-1.4391807

Louis Friend

Ozark707 wrote: »

A lot more, not sure of the point you are making. Are you comparing NY and Dublin?

One company, Google, occupy 45,000 room nights in Dublin each year.

I don’t see why people from New York or Europe should be surprised at the price of hotels in Dublin.

There aren’t that many of them and lots of people want to stay in them, supply and demand.

Hubertj

Dublin City Council paying €100,000 more in construction costs for social housing
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/dublin-city-council-paying-100-000-more-in-construction-costs-for-social-housing-1.4468432

The Sinn Fein lad doesn’t seem to get it. The question is who is “managing” the procurement and tendering process. I suppose that’s what happens when you don’t have functioning performance management systems in the public sector. Who is responsible for that? Trade unions? Combination of weak management and trade union resistance? Or is it part of the big conspiracy to extract maximum value from the tax payer for an elite few?
I’ve a fair idea.

Mad stuff altogether but to be expected. Maybe the same clown that overpaid €x million for dept of health lease?

Timing belt

The same journalist does make a good point that the apartments that are being built at present are build to rent and not build to sell.

"The main drivers of apartment construction in Ireland are currently private rented sector investors, mostly from abroad.These investors have flocked to Ireland to avail of comparatively strong returns from the rental sector and are buying apartment developments off the plans as single lots."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/cost-to-develop-dublin-city-apartment-as-much-as-619-000-1.4467616?mode=amp

Timing belt

This is the Document that was released today on the apartment costs

https://mk0societyofchag3d3v.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/SCSI_RealCostofNewApartmentDelivery_final.pdf

Need to go through it in detail but from glancing at it they are saying that it is not viable to build certain types of apartments.... I wonder are these non-viable apartments that one's that DCC are looking to buy?

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

The same journalist does make a good point that the apartments that are being built at present are build to rent and not build to sell.

"The main drivers of apartment construction in Ireland are currently private rented sector investors, mostly from abroad.These investors have flocked to Ireland to avail of comparatively strong returns from the rental sector and are buying apartment developments off the plans as single lots."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/cost-to-develop-dublin-city-apartment-as-much-as-619-000-1.4467616?mode=amp

The reason that build to rent is the business model du jour is because build to sell is not viable as there is not sufficient demand to purchase at these prices.

combat14

schmittel wrote: »

The reason that build to rent is the business model du jour is because build to sell is not viable as there is not sufficient demand to purchase at these prices.

prices must be too high so..

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

The reason that build to rent is the business model du jour is because build to sell is not viable as there is not sufficient demand to purchase at these prices.

Agreed I would also question whether there would be demand to rent at these prices.

There is one line in the report that I did laugh at:

"Therefore, to ensure the provision of such apartments, one of two things must change: the current price of the unit must increase; or, the total delivery cost must decrease."

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

The reason that build to rent is the business model du jour is because build to sell is not viable as there is not sufficient demand to purchase at these prices.

Well I’m sure the council would be happy to....ðŸ˜

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Well I’m sure the council would be happy to....ðŸ˜

Yep, thats plan b of the business model du jour, if you cant rent them at crazy prices, sell or rent them to the council at the prices that there was no demand to buy or rent.

Quite a clever business model really, elegant in its simplicity!

BredonWimsey

schmittel wrote: »

The reason that build to rent is the business model du jour is because build to sell is not viable as there is not sufficient demand to purchase at these prices.

Dublin is not NYC, Paris or London. Blows my mind how the Dublin property market can demand these prices for a standard apartment.


Not worth it - just move and have a real standard of living. Doesnt matter what you earn - standard of living is better elsewhere.

Cyrus

BredonWimsey wrote: »

Not worth it - just move and have a real standard of living. Doesnt matter what you earn - standard of living is better elsewhere.

I think you’ll find it does

Living in Paris London or NY on anything approximating an average wage would be hard.

BredonWimsey

Cyrus wrote: »

I think you’ll find it does

Living in Paris London or NY on anything approximating an average wage would be hard.

I'll find what does?



and who said anything about standard wage? an apartment at 650k is not bought by someone with a standard wage. that price gets you far much more elsewhere in Ireland and in other countries.


But hey if you want to waste your money on something like that - that is your own personal preference. I'm just saying its not great value.

Idbatterim

<SNIP>

BredonWimsey

Cyrus wrote: »

I think you’ll find it does

Living in Paris London or NY on anything approximating an average wage would be hard.

and those cities offer far more activities and experiences than Dublin does so whatever your wage is you have access to far much more than what Dublin can offer.


But sure if you want to defend Dublin and house prices all evening long you are welcome to do that.

Idbatterim

"Dublin City Council paying €100,000 more in construction costs for social housing"

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/dublin-city-council-paying-100-000-more-in-construction-costs-for-social-housing-1.4468432?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2Fdublin-city-council-paying-100-000-more-in-construction-costs-for-social-housing-1.4468432

A two-bed apartment for €619,000? Pull the other one

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/a-two-bed-apartment-for-619-000-pull-the-other-one-1.4467640?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2Fa-two-bed-apartment-for-619-000-pull-the-other-one-1.4467640

BredonWimsey

the reality is and I'm sure the real estate wheeler and dealers on here wont want to hear this - but people will be leaving dublin. maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but they will leave.

Meanwhile you'll be stuck trying to justify a 650k asking price for a standard dublin apartment.

off you go.

and yes this wheeling and dealing and conspiring to keep prices as high as they are will backfire....eventually.

Sorry Not sorry

Summer2020

BredonWimsey wrote: »

the reality is and I'm sure the real estate wheeler and dealers on here wont want to hear this - but people will be leaving dublin. maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but they will leave.

Meanwhile you'll be stuck trying to justify a 650k asking price for a standard dublin apartment.

off you go.

and yes this wheeling and dealing and conspiring to keep prices as high as they are will backfire....eventually.

Sorry Not sorry

Can I get the lotto numbers for next week while you’re at it please?

Timing belt

Idbatterim wrote: »

"Dublin City Council paying €100,000 more in construction costs for social housing"

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/dublin-city-council-paying-100-000-more-in-construction-costs-for-social-housing-1.4468432?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2Fdublin-city-council-paying-100-000-more-in-construction-costs-for-social-housing-1.4468432

A two-bed apartment for €619,000? Pull the other one

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/a-two-bed-apartment-for-619-000-pull-the-other-one-1.4467640?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2Fa-two-bed-apartment-for-619-000-pull-the-other-one-1.4467640

619k is for a medium rise apartment..... 8-15 Floors with a high class finish.

BredonWimsey

Summer2020 wrote: »

Can I get the lotto numbers for next week while you’re at it please?

um if you actually speak to people in dublin - you ill see how dissatisfied they are with paying these prices and you will also see how remote working is giving them the advantage of working from home with Dublin companies and they can work anywhere now.


Doesnt take a psychic or genius - but if you want to be flippant thats up to you.


why does my comment bother you though? not happy that people arent willing to pay this anymore or may have more options in the future?