2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Let’s see how Biden responds to that. Trump already did the legwork so will be interesting

They will be fighting a currency war on two fronts then.... Europe and China

HansKroenke

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

Extracts;

Rental market in Dublin’s docklands nosedives as couples shun one-bed apartments

The short-term rental market in Dublin’s docklands has “collapsed”, with couples shunning one-bed apartments with too little space to work remotely, according to a report on the residential property market in the central Dublin district.

The report by estate agent Owen Reilly said rents have fallen on average 13 per cent in the docklands since March, and by even more at the upper end of the market.

Between March and April, 10 per cent of Owen Reilly’s tenants prematurely ended their tenancy and left the docklands to work remotely from their home country, mainly in continental Europe.

While the demand for short-term rentals fell, the report noted that the supply of long-term rental units more than doubled.

Despite this, the report said the outlook for residential property in the docklands was still strong with the workforce expected to double in the next two years to at least 80,000.

Salesforce’s new European headquarters at Spencer Dock, currently under construction, will accommodate in the region of 3,000 workers.

“Given this, the demand for PRS apartments in the docklands will be strong,” it said.

Despite the disruption from Covid, 2020 saw two new schemes launch in the docklands in the private rental sector (PRS) at Quayside Quarter (268 units) on North Wall Quay and Ropemaker Place (56 units) at Grand Canal Dock.

Owen Reilly’s report said the company’s average rental yield fell to 5.9 per cent from 6.2 per cent, which reflected rental value movements.

With travel restrictions to remain until at least the autumn, the question is how low the rents can go? Current projections are for 17% drops in the year to March 2021. It's likely an artificial deflation however and as the extract notes, it will come back at least to some extent from these drops, once travel returns in 2022.

PropQueries

Edit: Apologies, just saw someone posted the same link.

According to the Irish Times today in relation to the Docklands area in Dublin:


"The short-term rental market in Dublin’s docklands has “collapsed”, with couples shunning one-bed apartments with too little space to work remotely, according to a report on the residential property market in the central Dublin district."


Rents have fallen by c. 13% since last March. 10% of tenants prematurely ended their tenancy. The supply of long-term rental units more than doubled.


It then goes on to state: "Despite this, the report said the outlook for residential property in the docklands was still strong with the workforce expected to double in the next two years to at least 80,000."


Ok, so an extra 40,000 jobs in the Docklands area in the next 2 years. Really? I assume some of this 40,000 figure will be jobs relocating from the suburbs to the new Facebook, Google and Salesforce headquarters. Not good for the suburban CRE market IMO.


But, where are all the other projected jobs being created? It's the equivalent of an additional 4 Googles in the Docklands within the next 2 years. Is this even plausible?



Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Times today in relation to the Docklands area in Dublin:


"The short-term rental market in Dublin’s docklands has “collapsed”, with couples shunning one-bed apartments with too little space to work remotely, according to a report on the residential property market in the central Dublin district."


Rents have fallen by c. 13% since last March. 10% of tenants prematurely ended their tenancy. The supply of long-term rental units more than doubled.


It then goes on to state: "Despite this, the report said the outlook for residential property in the docklands was still strong with the workforce expected to double in the next two years to at least 80,000."


Ok, so an extra 40,000 jobs in the Docklands area in the next 2 years. Really? I assume some of this 40,000 figure will be jobs relocating from the suburbs to the new Facebook, Google and Salesforce headquarters. Not good for the suburban CRE market IMO.


But, where are all the other projected jobs being created? It's the equivalent of an additional 4 Googles in the Docklands within the next 2 years. Is this even plausible?



Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

You need to take your blinkers off ..You view this in the short term as in the how conditions were last year and this year. If the short term conditions of no immigration and no tourists continued after covid is gone then it would not be sustainable but I reckon anyone who has property as part of their investment portfolio will not be thinking of the short term as lets face it you cant sell properties at the flick of a switch it takes a few months..so if say property prices started plummeting you would not be immune to a big loss.. Do you really think in 2 or 3 or 10 years time that Ireland will still have no one travelling in to visit or to stay and work??

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

It then goes on to state: "Despite this, the report said the outlook for residential property in the docklands was still strong with the workforce expected to double in the next two years to at least 80,000."


Ok, so an extra 40,000 jobs in the Docklands area in the next 2 years. Really? I assume some of this 40,000 figure will be jobs relocating from the suburbs to the new Facebook, Google and Salesforce headquarters. Not good for the suburban CRE market IMO.


But, where are all the other projected jobs being created? It's the equivalent of an additional 4 Googles in the Docklands within the next 2 years. Is this even plausible?

If we have skilled staff immigrating here it is possible

JimmyVik

Timing belt wrote: »

It will be 75 in a few years in both public and private.

Arent SF going to lower it to 60?

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

If we have skilled staff immigrating here it is possible

Or maybe look at it another way. Apparently we have enough office supply (already built or nearing completion) in the Docklands area to accommodate an additional c. 40,000 workers.


That's a significant amount of office supply looking for a home in the very near term. They better hope those 40,000 jobs materialise over the next 2 years.

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

You need to take your blinkers off ..You view this in the short term as in the how conditions were last year and this year. If the short term conditions of no immigration and no tourists continued after covid is gone then it would not be sustainable but I reckon anyone who has property as part of their investment portfolio will not be thinking of the short term as lets face it you cant sell properties at the flick of a switch it takes a few months..so if say property prices started plummeting you would not be immune to a big loss.. Do you really think in 2 or 3 or 10 years time that Ireland will still have no one travelling in to visit or to stay and work??

Its going to be some influx of workers and students, even people who went back down the country since last year, into Dublin when Covid is finished. I imagine supply will be strained big time. Renting will be carnage.

TobyHolmes

fliball123 wrote: »

You need to take your blinkers off ..You view this in the short term as in the how conditions were last year and this year. If the short term conditions of no immigration and no tourists continued after covid is gone then it would not be sustainable but I reckon anyone who has property as part of their investment portfolio will not be thinking of the short term as lets face it you cant sell properties at the flick of a switch it takes a few months..so if say property prices started plummeting you would not be immune to a big loss.. Do you really think in 2 or 3 or 10 years time that Ireland will still have no one travelling in to visit or to stay and work??

COVID has changed the working pattern of workers. i am not psychic but its really just a case of connecting the dots. At the moment people who can remote work - remote work. There will still be plenty of remote working jobs in the future (from what people are saying and the way things are going) and people will not have to live in dublin city for work (and deal with high rental costs and high costs to buy property- why should they when they dont have to) so that means........ they wont live in dublin and they wont buy or rent property in dublin. im not sure why some posters are trying to convince people otherwise. Do you really think life will just go back to normal next year? I wish it would but we have to be realistic as well. Im not saying this to you directly - but in general maybe people need to look less at the statistics and the numbers and economic models and just talk to people in the community (not just your own bubble) and that will really tell you more what behaviour will be like in the coming years.

MacronvFrugals

Should the council not just buy this property?


Advert for Homeless Hostel Estimates Profits of €250,000 a Year

On Nelson Street in Phibsborough, a privately run homeless hostel is for sale.

Ardfert House, as it’s known, has 28 rooms for residents and a price tag of €3.2m.

Dublin City Council has a ten-year lease on the premises and pays €480,000 each year to the private operator, the advert says.

More than half of that is profit, it seems – although that’s based wholly on the seller’s advert. “Estimated profit €250,000 per year,” the advert says. on property website Daft.ie.

The listing has given councillors a rare insight into the council’s spending on a private hostel for single people, and an opportunity to compare that against charity-run hostels.

“This illustrates the enormous profits that are being made in the private homeless sector,” says Green Party Councillor Janet Horner.

Horner says she thinks the council should buy the hostel instead of shelling out €4.8m to a private operator over ten years.

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/01/27/advert-for-homeless-hostel-estimates-profits-of-250-000-a-year

JimmyVik

TobyHolmes wrote: »

COVID has changed the working pattern of workers. i am not psychic but its really just a case of connecting the dots. At the moment people who can remote work - remote work. There will still be plenty of remote working jobs in the future (from what people are saying and the way things are going) and people will not have to live in dublin city for work (and deal with high rental costs and high costs to buy property- why should they when they dont have to) so that means........ they wont live in dublin and they wont buy or rent property in dublin. im not sure why some posters are trying to convince people otherwise. Do you really think life will just go back to normal next year? I wish it would but we have to be realistic as well. Im not saying this to you directly - but in general maybe people need to look less at the statistics and the numbers and economic models and just talk to people in the community (not just your own bubble) and that will really tell you more what behaviour will be like in the coming years.

I just dont think life is going to change that much. Sure it will change a little as it does all the time. But therte is a pandemic. Life has changed to the Pandemic way, while there is a pandemic.
When there is no pandemic it will be much more like it was before.

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its going to be some influx of workers and students, even people who went back down the country since last year, into Dublin when Covid is finished. I imagine supply will be strained big time. Renting will be carnage.

That argument would make perfect sense if no new residential units were completed, no new student accommodation units were completed, no new refurbishment units were completed and no new properties entered probate between March 2020 and March 2022.

Leo has already stated international travel restrictions are most likely to be in place until year end so it will be next year before things could possibly return to anything resembling pre-covid normality.

We will have all this extra housing supply having entered the market between 2020 and 2022, definitely less pre-covid projections of demand.

So, I don't see where this predicted housing supply/demand mismatch will come from next year.

TobyHolmes

JimmyVik wrote: »

I just dont think life is going to change that much. Sure it will change a little as it does all the time. But therte is a pandemic. Life has changed to the Pandemic way, while there is a pandemic.
When there is no pandemic it will be much more like it was before.

dont u think the pandemic has giving people more perspective on what they want from life and that they have decided they dont want to live a lifestyle that means high rents and high costs to buy - when they dont have to and in a city that is going to the pits (stabbings, homelessness). (all capital cities are like that - i hear the peanut gallery say - but other capital cities offer more bang for the buck in terms of weather, activities etc).



I would also certainly think that the pandemic has changed society - if it hasnt - then humans are doomed as it means we havent learned anything.


Sure you can ignore me. Im just one person. But believe you me (love that saying) there are many people who have similar views. it would be wise to listen to people if you have any interest in the property market so that you can learn to strategise better.

JimmyVik

TobyHolmes wrote: »

dont u think the pandemic has giving people more perspective on what they want from life and that they have decided they dont want to live a lifestyle that means high rents and high costs to buy - when they dont have to and in a city that is going to the pits (stabbings, homelessness). (all capital cities are like that - i hear the peanut gallery say - but other capital cities offer more bang for the buck in terms of weather, activities etc).



I would also certainly think that the pandemic has changed society - if it hasnt - then humans are doomed as it means we havent learned anything.


Sure you can ignore me. Im just one person. But believe you me (love that saying) there are many people who have similar views. it would be wise to listen to people if you have any interest in the property market so that you can learn to strategise better.

I dont think things will change as much as you think they will.
Even just look at the pandemic so far. Didnt take long going from "close the schools" to "open the schools". And as for being careful about getting the virus. Well things have changed there too in a few months. This pandemic will be over. Life is more likely to be like it was before the pandemic than it was during it.

TobyHolmes

JimmyVik wrote: »

I dont think things will change as much as you think they will.
Even just look at the pandemic so far. Didnt take long going from "close the schools" to "open the schools". And as for being careful about getting the virus. Well things have changed there too in a few months. This pandemic will be over. Life is more likely to be like it was before the pandemic than it was during it.

ok enjoy the view

Timing belt

TobyHolmes wrote: »

dont u think the pandemic has giving people more perspective on what they want from life and that they have decided they dont want to live a lifestyle that means high rents and high costs to buy - when they dont have to and in a city that is going to the pits (stabbings, homelessness). (all capital cities are like that - i hear the peanut gallery say - but other capital cities offer more bang for the buck in terms of weather, activities etc).



I would also certainly think that the pandemic has changed society - if it hasnt - then humans are doomed as it means we havent learned anything.


Sure you can ignore me. Im just one person. But believe you me (love that saying) there are many people who have similar views. it would be wise to listen to people if you have any interest in the property market so that you can learn to strategise better.

People have all been drawn to cities that won't change.... Yes we will have more people move out of the city to WFH but the city will still attract people.

Browney7

HansKroenke wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

Extracts;



With travel restrictions to remain until at least the autumn, the question is how low the rents can go? Current projections are for 17% drops in the year to March 2021. It's likely an artificial deflation however and as the extract notes, it will come back at least to some extent from these drops, once travel returns in 2022.

It's an interesting report by Owen. His agency is clearly focussed on the pointy end of the market so not representative of the Dublin or nationwide market.

TobyHolmes

Timing belt wrote: »

People have all been drawn to cities that won't change.... Yes we will have more people move out of the city to WFH but the city will still attract people.

ok - i guess time will tell!

TheSheriff

TobyHolmes wrote: »

ok - i guess time will tell!

Are you perhaps guilty of your own advice and only looking at your own circle/friends ?

Plenty I know (who would have secure, fully remote possibilities ) have not fled the capital.

Watch the city centre go down slightly , and the suburbs flatline/slightly increase.

I don't think we'll all be living in rural utopia.

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

Are you perhaps guilty of your own advice and only looking at your own circle/friends ?

Plenty I know (who would have secure, fully remote possibilities ) have not fled the capital.

Watch the city centre go down slightly , and the suburbs flatline/slightly increase.

I don't think we'll all be living in rural utopia.

Maybe everyone's opinion on this is influenced by their own opinions/circle of friends - mine certainly is, and it sounds like yours might be too.

Time will tell which circle will move the market more!

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

Maybe everyone's opinion on this is influenced by their own opinions/circle of friends - mine certainly is, and it sounds like yours might be too.

Time will tell which circle will move the market more!

Absolutely, I agree. Everyone on this thread has a bias, whether they admit it or not. Once posters realise this, (particularly new posters) it's easier to not get your back up about some of the mad projections (on both sides) which come up here.

It's been that way for the years I've been reading. Everyone is involved and is fully convinced that the exact circumstances which will maximise their personal gain will happen....because their friends, who are all in a similar socioeconomic group are talking about the same thing. Confirmation bias etc.

Expect maybe for Villa , they seem more hear to tell us all how f**cked the market is (which I agree with ).

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

Many economists and governments are now suggesting that taxes on property and inheritance taxes are going to be the most looked at sources of future Government revenue around the world as it's one of the few assets/sources of revenue that can't be picked up and shipped abroad.

Timing belt wrote:

The age at which you get to draw a pension will change and people will be working longer.

Bass Reeves wrote:

Again we go down the cul de sac of things that may influence property prices in 10-15 years time. I was dealing with a post that specifically was dealing with a short term preceived thread to house prices.

Fail to prepare, Prepare to fail. Pensions was one of the biggest issues facing the country 20 years ago, hence the pension reserve fund.

Have we got to the point where Fianna fail were the most prudent party in the country in the greatest collapse the country experienced

I think it's important to remember that when we buy a house, it's not just something we do this year, it's a lifetime commitment

Geuze wrote:

Our income tax system is very progressive, so taxes are lower than average on lower earners, but then rise sharply.

For those earning less, the scope to tax them is erased by the rents they are forced to pay. Many would be financially better off on the dole + benefits


Third level education is another area with issues. In comparison to international standards fees are very low and heavily subsidised. The construction industry is very much aware of this and presents an opportunity for them to charge more for accomodation, yet another indirect subsidy to the profession

affordable housing would be the silver bullet to solve both the pensions and need for higher taxation in the future.

All the ingredients are in place for the state not only to deliver affordable housing, but also to have housing as a source of income rather than a sector that is continually and increasingly subsidised at a time when we are close to full employment.

Marius34

TheSheriff wrote: »

Are you perhaps guilty of your own advice and only looking at your own circle/friends ?

Plenty I know (who would have secure, fully remote possibilities ) have not fled the capital.

Watch the city centre go down slightly , and the suburbs flatline/slightly increase.

I don't think we'll all be living in rural utopia.

From my personal experience, I work and study mostly with multinational colleagues in IT. I have not seen movement from Dublin for European friends and colleagues (except from British contractors that not coming for business trips). But I have large portion of Students/Colleagues who work or study from India currently. Most has plans to come/return to Dublin in Summer or when College/Office re-opens or on completion of Master degree.

enricoh

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-says-it-can-absorb-a-record-level-of-national-debt-amid-covid-crisis-1.4470047?mode=amp

Government debt is just shy of 50k for every man woman and child in the country. What's the population 5 million? , Iirc we had 2.2 million at work pre covid. So probably 1.5 million full time workers now when you strip out part timers, jobs lost and mickey mouse CE schemes etc.
Is this sustainable with corporation tax windfalls under pressure? Government renting apartments for up to 3k a month surely has to end? Or will we keep on trucking and sod the naysayers Bertie style!

TobyHolmes

Marius34 wrote: »

From my personal experience, I work and study mostly with multinational colleagues in IT. I have not seen movement from Dublin for European friends and colleagues (except from British contractors that not coming for business trips). But I have large portion of Students/Colleagues who work or study from India currently. Most has plans to come/return to Dublin in Summer or when College/Office re-opens or on completion of Master degree.

really as I have had the opposite experience. But look I suppose we will see.

TobyHolmes

TheSheriff wrote: »

Are you perhaps guilty of your own advice and only looking at your own circle/friends ?

Plenty I know (who would have secure, fully remote possibilities ) have not fled the capital.

Watch the city centre go down slightly , and the suburbs flatline/slightly increase.

I don't think we'll all be living in rural utopia.

perhaps yeah you are right Sheriff. I suppose I would have a few different groups and some would be very settled and some are like getting out of dodge. but sure look we will see. i guess we cant deal with definitives right now

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Fail to prepare, Prepare to fail. Pensions was one of the biggest issues facing the country 20 years ago, hence the pension reserve fund.

Have we got to the point where Fianna fail were the most prudent party in the country in the greatest collapse the country experienced

I think it's important to remember that when we buy a house, it's not just something we do this year, it's a lifetime commitment




For those earning less, the scope to tax them is erased by the rents they are forced to pay. Many would be financially better off on the dole + benefits


Third level education is another area with issues. In comparison to international standards fees are very low and heavily subsidised. The construction industry is very much aware of this and presents an opportunity for them to charge more for accomodation, yet another indirect subsidy to the profession

affordable housing would be the silver bullet to solve both the pensions and need for higher taxation in the future.

All the ingredients are in place for the state not only to deliver affordable housing, but also to have housing as a source of income rather than a sector that is continually and increasingly subsidised at a time when we are close to full employment.

Correction... we WERE close to full employment.

Hubertj

HansKroenke wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

Extracts;



With travel restrictions to remain until at least the autumn, the question is how low the rents can go? Current projections are for 17% drops in the year to March 2021. It's likely an artificial deflation however and as the extract notes, it will come back at least to some extent from these drops, once travel returns in 2022.

This makes sense. 4 google workers share the 4 bed house next door to me and they said it was a disaster. Google offered desks/monitors etc but that doesn’t work for 4 people...

PropQueries

TobyHolmes wrote: »

perhaps yeah you are right Sheriff. I suppose I would have a few different groups and some would be very settled and some are like getting out of dodge. but sure look we will see. i guess we cant deal with definitives right now

People already living here don't add to demand as they're already housed. If they stay, nothing changes, if they leave it adds to supply.

The main issue arises about the impact of WFH etc. on the future projected demand for housing in the city. New hires coming to work in Dublin may be renting for the first c. 5 years. They then decide to start a family and buy. If they're only in the office 2 or 3 days a week, they will then seriously consider looking much further afield.

Given that this age group will be marrying partners in a similar age bracket, they will both most likely have the opportunity to WFH a few days a week, so they will then seriously consider other areas. If it saves them €100k, if they see they can pay back their mortgage in 15 years instead of 25 years, if it means being closer to family.

Unlike pre-covid, whatever the reason for looking into it, it will definitely be a consideration and will definitely reduce future demand for housing in the city to below pre-covid projected demand levels in future years.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

People already living here don't add to demand as they're already housed. If they stay, nothing changes, if they leave it adds to supply.

The main issue arises about the impact of WFH etc. on the future projected demand for housing in the city. New hires coming to work in Dublin may be renting for the first c. 5 years. They then decide to start a family and buy. If they're only in the office 2 or 3 days a week, they will then seriously consider looking much further afield.

Given that this age group will be marrying partners in a similar age bracket, they will both most likely have the opportunity to WFH a few days a week, so they will then seriously consider other areas. If it saves them €100k, if they see they can pay back their mortgage in 15 years instead of 25 years, if it means being closer to family.

Unlike pre-covid, whatever the reason for looking into it, it will definitely be a consideration and will definitely reduce future demand for housing in the city to below pre-covid projected demand levels in future years.

It helps with the 2040 government strategy then ;)