Hubertj wrote: » Do you know when an “address point” is created? Is it only done when a unit is finished? Or is it done at an earlier stage? Does it mean there are 21k extra units ready to go?
awec wrote: » Commencements are properties where development has just started. They are a leading indicator of future supply. The report calls out that commencements have fallen sharply. This is not a surprise, given that during all the covid mess the priority for developers would have been to finish off existing development to get money flowing in. But it does indicate that supply is going to be lower next year. 2020 vs 2019: Completions were down a bit. Under construction was higher. Commencements down sharply.
awec wrote: » I believe it means that there were commencement notices issued for 21k properties in 2020. Commencement notice is required before development can start.
schmittel wrote: » From previous reading of Geodirectory, I thought it was a new address that receives post. Maybe awec can help? Are new address points = under construction?
JimmyVik wrote: » I could walk down the road here for 10 minutes or so and pass at least 500 if not more houses and apartments that were commenced since Jan 2020, but have had nothing at all done on them since last March. Like ghost towns.
schmittel wrote: » That can't be right if commencements are down sharply.
awec wrote: » Why not?
awec wrote: » Honestly not sure, but I would imagine address points can be created any time after planning is finalised. This is likely to be fairly common. The real impact of covid on construction will be felt in the coming years as delayed commencements have a knock on effect.
Timing belt wrote: » 'Covid 19 did result in a lower level of transactions across the 26 counties, while on the supply side, the Covid 19 restrictions and the closure of sites for 7 weeks on 28 March slowed the construction process. Yet overall, the outturn for new supply looks likely to be close to 19,300, well above the 14,000 - 16,000 range projected back in March/April 2020. However, new starts or commencements, a leading indicator of future supply, were down 16.1% in the 12 months to November 2020. This trend is likely to have a knock-on impact on the level of supply in 2021' Taken from page 3 of the report
schmittel wrote: » And how is that relevant to what you quoted?
Timing belt wrote: » My understanding is that they are talking about completions in this paragraph.
schmittel wrote: » If commencements are down sharply and but address points are not, it seems likely that commencements are not the same as address points.
awec wrote: » To be honest, I don't know what "address point" really means in this context. There were 19k completions, so an extra 2k addresses. Maybe the extra could be self-builders from 2019 only getting around to registering their addresses in 2020? I don't really know. I would be very surprised though if "commencements" in the report did not directly correlate to commencement notices. It would not make sense to be anything else.
schmittel wrote: » For sure I'd agree that commencements = commencement notices. Just don't think address points is the same thing.
awec wrote: » To be honest, I don't know what "address point" really means in this context. Unfortunately the report doesn't really explain it. I would be very surprised though if "commencements" in the report did not directly correlate to commencement notices. It would not make sense to be anything else.
awec wrote: » Oh I agree. Address points I don't know, unfortunately the report doesn't explain it and it doesn't appear to be a standard term. Are addresses officially registered separately to eircodes? I know when our house was built it took months for us to get an eircode.
PropQueries wrote: » I think people are just looking at commencements and assuming demand will not be impacted. All the pre-covid projections for housing demand in 2020 and 2021 were based on net inward migration being c. 30,000 for both of these years i.e. 60,000. Given that that’s not very likely now, and supply hasn’t exactly fallen off a cliff, any fall in commencements should have a negligible impact on supply/demand for housing over the next few years IMO Supply vs demand should actually be improving?
awec wrote: » It is very difficult to quantify demand like you can supply. If you believe demand is going to drop by at least 15% of what it is today then you may see improvements.
schmittel wrote: » Dublin demand was dropping pre covid evidenced by falling prices and volume, unsold new builds etc. On the face of it seems like Covid has lifted demand because of rising prices - but is this really because of increased demand or is it reduced supply? Prop makes fair points that pre Covid projections are a but useless at least in the short term. If demand was dropping pre Covid, factor in covid related challenges, and it does not seem that crazy to imagine demand might drop by 15% (in Dublin) when all this washes through.
fliball123 wrote: » Well you also have to take into account I reckon a lot of people pulled back from buying due to Brexit you only have to look on this site at some of the posts about it and some thought it was going to be doom and gloom once it was completed. Its hard to know what way it will wash out once Covid is over
Hubertj wrote: » This is what I want to know. What does it mean - does developer need address at time utilities are being connect in order to link MPRN / GPRN with an address (or eircode). Also how do these measure look over a 3 or 4 year period as we know commencements, completions, sales etc do not happen within calendar years.
schmittel wrote: » Dublin demand was dropping pre covid evidenced by falling prices and volume, unsold new builds etc.On the face of it seems like Covid has lifted demand because of rising prices - but is this really because of increased demand or is it reduced supply? Prop makes fair points that pre Covid projections are a but useless at least in the short term. If demand was dropping pre Covid, factor in covid related challenges, and it does not seem that crazy to imagine demand might drop by 15% (in Dublin) when all this washes through.
PropQueries wrote: » I think Brexit was just a handy excuse for the lack of predicted demand in 2018/2019.
JimmyVik wrote: » Do you not think that will be back with a vengeance when covid is no longer an issue?
PropQueries wrote: » I think Brexit was just a handy excuse for the lack of predicted demand in 2018/2019. But David McWilliams made a great point a few months back (IMO), that the pubs, restaurants, hotels etc. in the city are highly dependent upon the international business travel customers between Monday and Thursday each week and that’s probably not going to return to anywhere near pre-covid levels going forward with companies now used to using Zoom etc. This is most likely a permanent long-term fall in the weekday business for these businesses/hotels etc. in the city and hence their demand for workers and then those workers demand for housing in the city.
