2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

I think the longer term picture is likely to be a lot more complex than one side saying "whod live in a shoebox" and the other saying "whod live in a field"

And yet that seems to be the only level a lot of people than operate at whenever the topic comes up.

thomas 123

Hubertj wrote: »

According to some of the experts on this thread there are literally hundreds of thousands of vacant units across the country. I have no reason to doubt the claims made by random punters on the internet.

Lol yes - and the magical affordable and perfectly normal housing market outside of Dublin also - it’s awful in Dublin but not exactly great anywhere else on this island.


Maybe Leitrim - but just Leitrim

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

According to some of the experts on this thread there are literally hundreds of thousands of vacant units across the country. I have no reason to doubt the claims made by random punters on the internet.

According to the CSO there are literally hundreds of thousands vacant units across the country. According to some of the experts on this thread you cannot believe the CSO.

thomas 123

schmittel wrote: »

According to the CSO there are literally hundreds of thousands vacant units across the country. According to some of the experts on this thread you cannot believe the CSO.

Are we talking about bordered up derelict buildings or property available for purchase or rent?

If it’s the former you know as well as I that that statistic is about as useful as the digital pixels it’s written on.

How many hundred thousand vacant houses are there by the way?

hometruths

thomas 123 wrote: »

Are we talking about bordered up derelict buildings or property available for purchase or rent?

If it’s the former you know as well as I that that statistic is about as useful as the digital pixels it’s written on.

How many hundred thousand vacant houses are there by the way?

Boarded up derelict buildings are not counted as vacant by the CSO. I believe it is a useful count.

Villa05

Deleted User wrote:

I think the longer term picture is likely to be a lot more complex than one side saying "whod live in a shoebox" and the other saying "whod live in a field"

It does seem odd that the state is paying 500 to 900k for apartments for social/affordable when I'd imagine the market for such properties at that price is very very small from private buyers wishing to make it their home.

International trends are showing that with the exodus to the burbs and beyond for more space/value.

Continuation of building almost exclusivly for social and transient renters will make Dublin City centre less appealing into the future

thomas 123

schmittel wrote: »

Boarded up derelict buildings are not counted as vacant by the CSO. I believe it is a useful count.

Look at the data, the total available for sale or rent as of 2016 is ~20k. There is a large portion of other on the table also - so their could be an additional 10-20k(couldn’t be bothered working out the proportional probability based on the other types listed)

Here is a nice bit of data for you ~60k students do the leaving cert every year - for arguments sake let’s say 50k.

Let’s pretend they all decide to have a “normal” family together - the housing need at best for these 50k students is 25k “units”.

Don’t forget that’s every single year, year after year. House prices can only go up in the country, the demand is dwarfing the supply and the gap is growing.

In short we are f’d.

hometruths

thomas 123 wrote: »

Look at the data, the total available for sale or rent as of 2016 is ~20k. There is a large portion of other on the table also - so their could be an additional 10-20k(couldn’t be bothered working out the proportional probability based on the other types listed)

Here is a nice bit of data for you ~60k students do the leaving cert every year - for arguments sake let’s say 50k.

Let’s pretend they all decide to have a “normal” family together - the housing need at best for these 50k students is 25k “units”.

Don’t forget that’s every single year, year after year. House prices can only go up in the country, the demand is dwarfing the supply and the gap is growing.

In short we are f’d.

Believe me, I've looked at the data!

thomas 123

schmittel wrote: »

Believe me, I've looked at the data!

Then you would know there is not literally hundreds of thousands of units as you said earlier.

hometruths

thomas 123 wrote: »

Then you would know there is not literally hundreds of thousands of units as you said earlier.

The data says there are.

Are you saying it is misleading because 30-40k of these should not count because they available for either rent or sale?

fliball123

thomas 123 wrote: »

Then you would know there is not literally hundreds of thousands of units as you said earlier.

Wait till props kicks in saying there is nearly 1 million empty properties, including rooms over shops ...

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

So the Irish Times article on Liberty Insurance stating that "all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed". is a "falsehood"?

No, it's just irrelevant in the greater picture.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

According to the CSO there are literally hundreds of thousands vacant units across the country. According to some of the experts on this thread you cannot believe the CSO.

According to some experts on this thread MNCs are only here for tax purposes when it’s clear that’s a load of boll*x. They just can’t seem to believe that and make stupid throwaway comments about it.

johnnyskeleton

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I posted my source, I dont make up stuff

But your source doesnt show dublin prices higher in 2020 than in 2018. It shows them having dropped during that time!

Hence Im trying to figure out where youre coming from

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

According to some experts on this thread MNCs are only here for tax purposes when it’s clear that’s a load of boll*x. They just can’t seem to believe that and make stupid throwaway comments about it.

Guilty as charged.

2lazytogetup

Mic 1972 wrote: »

eBay have rearranged their office space in D15 to accommodate for the 2-3 days office + 2-3 WFH
it looks like the hybrid model maybe the way to go for the future, as opposite to full WFH which most people have grown tired of

i agree, i think the hybrid model is way going forward. need some face to face time for effective meetings and informal chats.

days when you just need to sit down at a computer and execute what was agreed at meetings, not sure what the point of going into an office to do that would be.

2lazytogetup

2lazytogetup wrote: »

i agree, i think the hybrid model is way going forward. need some face to face time for effective meetings and informal chats.

days when you just need to sit down at a computer and execute what was agreed at meetings, not sure what the point of going into an office to do that would be.

and on this basis, id say property prices in commuter towns will start to drop. im sure peopel are sick of ancedotal evidence. but i know people that would happily have stayed living in the west of ireland and just drive to dublin for a couple of days a week. instead of buying in a commuter town.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Guilty as charged.

Then why are the MNCs not all opened up in the 10 places on the globe that are even bigger tax havens than Ireland. You went out of your way to say Ireland was in 11th spot? Surely all the MNCs if it was all about tax or ways to get around paying tax then surely they would be based in the list outlined in here.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/09/uk-overseas-territories-top-list-of-worlds-leading-tax-havens

Could it be that Ireland offer something else besides this?

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Then why are the MNCs not all opened up in the 10 places on the globe that are even bigger tax havens than Ireland. You went out of your way to say Ireland was in 11th spot? Surely all the MNCs if it was all about tax or ways to get around paying tax then surely they would be based in the list outlined in here.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/09/uk-overseas-territories-top-list-of-worlds-leading-tax-havens

Could it be that Ireland offer something else besides this?

Probably the weather.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Probably the weather.

So I take it you have no answer for it and have to grudgingly admit that MNCs are in Ireland for other reasons other than tax rates and the weather

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

So I take it you have no answer for it and have to grudgingly admit that MNCs are in Ireland for other reasons other than tax rates and the weather

I don’t think tax is the only reason, but I do think it is the principal reason. And and I think anybody who claims otherwise is deluded. Just my opinion.

But the discussion is like everything else on this thread.

If somebody says, hmm, economy might be facing a bit of a headwind with these tax reforms, cue outrage and replies of nonsense, it’s a ridiculous suggestion that MNCs are all going to suddenly leave Ireland because of a change in the tax laws, they’re not here just for tax you know?

Em, I didn’t say all MNCs would all suddenly leave Ireland. Just wanted to have a sensible discussion about the future impact.

Just like WFH. I.e if somebody posts hmm this trend of WFH might be a bit of a headwind for Dublin prices. Cue outrage, nonsense it’s a ridiculous suggestion that everybody is going to suddenly uproot from Dublin en masse because of WFH, some people like living in Dublin you know?

Em, I didn’t say everybody would all suddenly leave Dublin. Just wanted to have a sensible discussion about the future impact.

Or affordability. If somebody posts saying houses are not affordable, cue outrage, nonsense, it’s a ridiculous suggest that everybody should be able to afford a mansion in Howth with a sea view.

Em, I didn’t say anything about mansions in Howth with a sea view etc etc.

So if we can’t have a sensible discussion about these things, sometimes it is more fitting to make a quip about the weather.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I don’t think tax is the only reason, but I do think it is the principal reason. And and I think anybody who claims otherwise is deluded. Just my opinion.

Tax is a reason, but one of a multitude, if it was the principal reason they would be in lower tax jurisidictions.

and the degeneration of these discussions are two way streets, you are happy to indulge the wildest of props fantasies and support him so dont try and make out like you are the sole bastion of sensible discussion on here.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Probably the weather.

It's definitely the weather. Optics matter and for years many politicians and many journalists associated tax havens with beaches and sunshine. Yes, they were most likely influenced by the Hollywood films they watched grown up.

Our connections in the states and being in the EU also gave us some cover as being a respectable member of the international community over the past 40 years and we played it very well.

That's all now changed and we're very much on the tax haven radar in both the states and the EU.

The fact is, and it is a fact, that most of these type of companies R&D on this side of the Atlantic is done in either the UK or other countries in the EU and that's as big a signal as can be given IMO

That's not knocking the impact and jobs created. They're more than welcome. But if our politicians are making decisions on the basis that the next 30 years is going to be exactly like the last 30 years, we're in serious trouble IMO

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Tax is a reason, but one of a multitude, if it was the principal reason they would be in lower tax jurisidictions.

and the degeneration of these discussions are two way streets, you are happy to indulge the wildest of props fantasies and support him so dont try and make out like you are the sole bastion of sensible discussion on here.

I certainly don’t agree with everything Props says. For example I think he’s completely wrong about the blended WFH.

Can you give me an example of an occasion I’ve been “happy to indulge the wildest of Props fantasies?”. Genuine question. I am trying to understand which ones you think are the wildest?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I certainly don’t agree with everything Props says. For example I think he’s completely wrong about the blended WFH.

Can you give me an example of an occasion I’ve been “happy to indulge the wildest of Props fantasies?”. Genuine question. I am trying to understand which ones you think are the wildest?

the absolute wildest one is the prediction of 75% price drops in the coming 12 months, which is what predicates the thinking behind most of the rest of his posts.

are you saying that you arent supportive of him?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

the absolute wildest one is the prediction of 75% price drops in the coming 12 months, which is what predicates the thinking behind most of the rest of his posts.

are you saying that you arent supportive of him?

To be fair, he has knocked me back on that one nearly as much as you

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

To be fair, he has knocked me back on that one nearly as much as you

he asked which one i think is the wildest, thats the one there.

but if thats your baseline everything else you say has to be taken in that context.

IMO of course.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

the absolute wildest one is the prediction of 75% price drops in the coming 12 months, which is what predicates the thinking behind most of the rest of his posts.

are you saying that you arent supportive of him?

I think Props prediction of 75% drops within the next 12 months is batsh*t crazy and have never agreed with it or indulged it.

Cannot be any clearer than that.

Any other wild fantasies i’ve Indulged?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

he asked which one i think is the wildest, thats the one there.

but if thats your baseline everything else you say has to be taken in that context.

IMO of course.

I asked which ones I indulged.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

he asked which one i think is the wildest, thats the one there.

but if thats your baseline everything else you say has to be taken in that context.

IMO of course.

Don't forget my theory that the so-called vulture funds own/control a significant percentage of the vacant housing stock in the country and that when they decide to exit...