2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Mic 1972

DataDude wrote: »

Thankfully, as has been posted by myself and others numerous times in response to your assertions, we have a Central Statistic Office which deals with such matters. In fact they just updated today and Dublin Jan-21 prices are 1.5% lower than their October 2018 PEAK. And that's in nominal terms, real terms the difference would be closer to 5%.

I guess it's only Props who gets in trouble for "repeatedly posting false statements"!

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/

I posted my source, I dont make up stuff

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

As I believe I stated before, many companies will try this "Hybrid" model "nonsense" and once they do, they will realise very quickly it's not going to work and they will move very quickly to either full time WFH or full time in the office.

It looks like Liberty Insurance has already taken my viewpoint on it.

As I believe I've told you numerous times before, hybrid working is nothing new.

For whatever reason, you continually ignore this fact.

JimmyVik

tigger123 wrote: »

Article on the Irish Times a few moments ago: House price growth accelerates to 2.6% as market defies pandemic low'.

Linked here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-accelerates-to-2-6-as-market-defies-pandemic-low-1.4508597

Its almost like we can find links to support any view we like

DataDude

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I posted my source, I dont make up stuff

Your source is clearly an unadjusted link to the PPR that's somewhat interesting but in no way statistically rigorous (again as posted by someone previously). Any dataset that shows a 4% rise from October 2020 to November 2020, followed by a fall of 7% from November to December should be treated with caution....

For example your "source" would indicate Dublin house prices fell by 6.4% from April 2020 to December 2020. We're in the midst of a major collapse so....

tigger123

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its almost like we can find links to support any view we like

I've been following this forum for years, and for years the price crash has been just around the corner, and somehow it never materialises.

fago

tigger123 wrote: »

Article on the Irish Times a few moments ago: House price growth accelerates to 2.6% as market defies pandemic low'.

Linked here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-accelerates-to-2-6-as-market-defies-pandemic-low-1.4508597

To restate once again in terms of Dublin:
- no one including me, is arguing that they haven't increased YoY, but they are still clearly below the Oct 2018 peak.
- new dwellings YoY rate of increase (2%) is 10x the 2nd hand rate of increase .2% https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/newandexistingdwellings/

If you were looking at a 2nd hand house in Dublin at the median price it's 385,000*.002 (less than 1k) more expensive in last 12 months.

Some equally correct headlines without the wow factor:
- "Second hand house prices remain flat despite supply pressures"
- "New house price growth continues to diverge from 2nd hand prices"
- "Government policies for FTBs continue to underpin new homes market" :-)

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

As I believe I've told you numerous times before, hybrid working is nothing new.

For whatever reason, you continually ignore this fact.

The difference now is that the "showing your face" factor in the office may no longer apply to work your way up. Noone is going to be asking "did you see john recently" etc. If everyone, from the top down, is going to be WFH, then there's no real need for the hybrid model going forward.

They can book a meeting room at the local Hilton for any face-to-face meetings that are required IMO

Employees have been given out for years about those employees who worked in the office until 8 p.m. every night just to be seen to be working hard. Admittedly, some did need to work those hours, but the underlings felt they had to be there as well just "to be seen" and advance.

That most likely will no longer apply.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

From every angle the state is keeping the show on the road, Part V is a nice little earner for developers


'Eastwise to charge Dublin City Council €531k for two-bed apartments'





https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/eastwise-to-charge-dublin-city-council-eur531k-for-two-bed-apartments-1a219e3f

Who’d pay that to live on the north side? Some people just get notions

tigger123

fago wrote: »

To restate once again in terms of Dublin:
- no one including me, is arguing that they haven't increased YoY, but they are still clearly below the Oct 2018 peak.
- new dwellings YoY rate of increase (2%) is 10x the 2nd hand rate of increase .2% https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/newandexistingdwellings/

If you were looking at a 2nd hand house in Dublin at the median price it's 385,000*.002 (less than 1k) more expensive in last 12 months.

An equally correct headline "Second hand house prices remain flat despite supply pressures", but doesn't have the same wow factor.

I'm not arguing about whether or not there has been, or will continue to be, fluctuations in prices.

What I am saying is that posters in this forum have been predicting a bubble bursting or a major decrease in price for years, and it still hasn't happened yet.

Another take away (or headline) from the article could be that prices have remained relatively stable despite a once in a lifetime pandemic.

tigger123

PropQueries wrote: »

The difference now is that the "showing your face" factor in the office may no longer apply to work your way up. Noone is going to be asking "did you see john recently" etc. If everyone, from the top down, is going to be WFH, then there's no real need for the hybrid model going forward.

They can book a meeting room at the local Hilton for any face-to-face meetings that are required IMO

Employees have been given out for years about those employees who worked in the office until 8 p.m. every night just to be seen to be working hard. Admittedly, some did need to work those hours, but the underlings felts they had to be there as well just "to be seen" and advance.

There's plenty of reasons for the hybrid model, but one of the main ones is that it allows people to maintain the social and collaborative element of work, and balance their family responsibilities at home. It also allows companies to reduce their office space and pay less rent.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

The difference now is that the "showing your face" factor in the office may no longer apply to work your way up. Noone is going to be asking "did you see john recently" etc. If everyone, from the top down, is going to be WFH, then there's no real need for the hybrid model going forward.

They can book a meeting room at the local Hilton for any face-to-face meetings that are required IMO

Employees have been given out for years about those employees who worked in the office until 8 p.m. every night just to be seen to be working hard. Admittedly, some did need to work those hours, but the underlings felt they had to be there as well just "to be seen" and advance.

That most likely will no longer apply.

its almost like humans need no interaction at all

or trainees require no guidance or training.

it must be a terrible time to be a new intake into a big 4 or large legal firm.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

That's the issue. People see their neighbour getting "renovations" and the neighbour tells them it cost e.g. €50k, but will "increase" the value of their house by e.g. €100k.

Then, when they decide to get the same renovations and are quoted a similar figure, they just go with it as they have nothing to compare it to and believe the renovations will pay for themselves due to the potential increase in market value post renovation works.

As market values start falling, that mindset will change very quickly in the not too distant future IMO

Anyone who has had a property renovated will know that what you pay out you will not see a return on it you will be lucky to see 20% more than the same house without the renovations if your selling

PropQueries

tigger123 wrote: »

There's plenty of reasons for the hybrid model, but one of the main ones is that it allows people to maintain the social and collaborative element of work, and balance their family responsibilities at home. It also allows companies to reduce their office space and pay less rent.

And how long before people ask why they need to come in two days a week when they are doing their job perfectly well from home for the other 3 days?

And what's the point in one team coming in on e.g. Monday and Tuesday if the other team is in on Thursday and Friday?

There won't be any "collaboration" etc. in such circumstances and the executives will quickly just move most to full-time WFH IMO

tigger123

PropQueries wrote: »

And how long before people ask why they need to come in two days a week when they are doing their job perfectly well from home for the other 3 days?

And what's the point in one team coming in on e.g. Monday and Tuesday if the other team is in on Thursday and Friday?

There won't be any "collaboration" etc. in such circumstances and the executives will quickly just move most to full-time WFH IMO

What is your own experience of working from home, or working in a hybrid set up? How have you found WFH full time to effect your mental health, or your relationship with colleagues?

fago

tigger123 wrote: »

I'm not arguing about whether or not there has been, or will continue to be, fluctuations in prices.

What I am saying is that posters in this forum have been predicting a bubble bursting or a major decrease in price for years, and it still hasn't happened yet.

Another take away (or headline) from the article could be that prices have remained relatively stable despite a once in a lifetime pandemic.

I can't disagree with any of that, everyone suffers from confirmation bias.
Potential buyers anchor on the negative spin, the economy will collapse post covid, everyone is leaving Dublin, look at city X whatever.
Existing purchasers, vested interests anchor and echo the positive "Asking prices up X", "Very little supply"

The statistics (with the inevitable lag) move along indicating neither of the above is accurate, and the answer is somewhere in between.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

And how long before people ask why they need to come in two days a week when they are doing their job perfectly well from home for the other 3 days?

And what's the point in one team coming in on e.g. Monday and Tuesday if the other team is in on Thursday and Friday?

There won't be any "collaboration" etc. in such circumstances and the executives will quickly just move most to full-time WFH IMO

You operate under this assumption that nobody wants to be in the office ever. I think this is ultimately what is fueling your confusion as to how things work.

If your team is in the office, you can collaborate. Why do you think every single employee from every team needs to be there for it to be worthwhile?

I really do not understand why you keep thinking it's all or nothing. There is a reason that hybrid work is so overwhelmingly popular, at some stage you need to accept this.

tigger123

fago wrote: »

I can't disagree with any of that, everyone suffers from confirmation bias.
Potential buyers anchor on the negative spin, the economy will collapse post covid, everyone is leaving Dublin, look at city X whatever.
Existing purchasers, vested interests anchor and echo the positive "Asking prices up X", "Very little supply"

The statistics (with the inevitable lag) move along indicating neither of the above is accurate, and the answer is somewhere in between.

From my perspective, the unfortunate truth is that housing is so broken in this country, and supply of affordable homes so lacking, that not even Covid can impact it. I'm not seeing anything FF will do to turn it around either.

There's similar issues in other parts of Europe too; housing becoming more expensive coupled with the gap/stagnation in wages means that owning your own home is continuing to be outside of the grasp of a lot of working people.

IMO it's a complete failure on the part of society.

tigger123

awec wrote: »

You operate under this assumption that nobody wants to be in the office ever. I think this is ultimately what is fueling your confusion as to how things work.

If your team is in the office, you can collaborate. Why do you think every single employee from every team needs to be there for it to be worthwhile?

I really do not understand why you keep thinking it's all or nothing. It's non-sensical. There is a reason that hybrid work is so overwhelmingly popular, at some stage you need to accept this.

I can't wait to se all my work colleagues and friends again.

yagan

Hubertj wrote: »

Who’d pay that to live on the north side? Some people just get notions

I've a strong suspicion that we're going to end up creating new inner city slums once the investor tide goes out. A lot of stock isn't fit for long term rentals as it slipped in under student accommodation and is even smaller than the Liam Carroll shoeboxes.

Retrospective planning permission for 500 such units to be switched to long term private rental down in the docklands was sought last summer, no sign of the international rental yield seeking funds snapping.

Money drives our planning policies, not social stability and we'll be paying for that in the long run.

thomas 123

Any timescale on the Shared Equity scheme?

As in when could one expect to apply? News seems to be dried up on it even after vote yesterday.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

You operate under this assumption that nobody wants to be in the office ever. I think this is ultimately what is fueling your confusion as to how things work.

If your team is in the office, you can collaborate. Why do you think every single employee from every team needs to be there for it to be worthwhile?

I really do not understand why you keep thinking it's all or nothing. There is a reason that hybrid work is so overwhelmingly popular, at some stage you need to accept this.

If you're working on one team, you generally know everything that's going on and you can zoom or email them when seeking help on a task or project as they are all on the same page.

When trying to get to grips with a company culture, you need to interact with all different teams from IT to legal to HR to some other group.

If the legal department team decides to come in on Thursdays and Fridays and your team decides to come in on Monday and Tuesdays, there is no "collaboration".

I fully understand the benefits of an office environment and that's why I say it's either full time WFH or full time work in the office. The hybrid model won't work if things like "collaboration" etc. are the primary reasons given to embrace it IMO

Mic 1972

eBay have rearranged their office space in D15 to accommodate for the 2-3 days office + 2-3 WFH
it looks like the hybrid model maybe the way to go for the future, as opposite to full WFH which most people have grown tired of

Mic 1972

DataDude wrote: »

Your source is clearly an unadjusted link to the PPR that's somewhat interesting but in no way statistically rigorous (again as posted by someone previously). Any dataset that shows a 4% rise from October 2020 to November 2020, followed by a fall of 7% from November to December should be treated with caution....

For example your "source" would indicate Dublin house prices fell by 6.4% from April 2020 to December 2020. We're in the midst of a major collapse so....

Who would look at sales trends on a MOM basis in the first place?
The report shows monthly sales, it gives an idea of where we stand. You can't compare one month with the previous one and pull a % drop like that.
Overall the 2020 sales, although low in volumes, have been consistently higher.
Anyone who has been bidding for properties in the last few months will be able to confirm this

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

eBay have rearranged their office space in D15 to accommodate for the 2-3 days office + 2-3 WFH
it looks like the hybrid model maybe the way to go for the future, as opposite to full WFH which most people have grown tired of

Probably just to appease and show some staff that "They gave it a go".


I'm calling it. It won't work

bilbot79

ReturnOfThe wrote: »

As I see it, the housing market is driven by a number of variables which tend to apply upward or downward pressure on prices.

Variables which pull house prices in the same direction.
Economic Outlook.
Population Growth.
Demand (Speculative in times of low interest, non-speculative in times of low supply).
Mortgage Approvals.

Variables which push house prices in the opposite direction.
Supply.
Interest Rates.

So if someone is looking for house prices to fall, they would have to be looking out for at least one of the below headlines in the papers..

Economic outlook deteriorating
Population growth being reversed
Demand falling
Mortgage approvals falling
Supply increasing and outpacing demand
Interest rates rising

I think most people will agree that none of the above look remotely like happening in the short to medium term except maybe for the last one and I'm beginning to think that maybe it would be a good thing at this stage as I think that low interest rates contributes (perversely) to rising house prices.

There are only 5 criteria there really with 4 under the umbrella of 'demand falling' + interest rates rising.

I think they are all present post-covid

Hubertj

If people can wfh full time but live in rural areas they will move to larger towns and cities. Who would want to be stuck in a 1 horse town all day every day. Get to the city and get a life. After all rents will plummet when hundreds of thousands of people based in Dublin flee to the countryside and occupy all the vacant units.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

If people can wfh full time but live in rural areas they will move to larger towns and cities. Who would want to be stuck in a 1 horse town all day every day. Get to the city and get a life. After all rents will plummet when hundreds of thousands of people based in Dublin flee to the countryside and occupy all the vacant units.

I don't think they will need to leave Dublin or other cities.

The very real possibility that a potential purchaser may now be able to choose to live in the city or outside the city and not worry about commuting times anymore will ensure that city property prices will fall to rural property prices with the possibility of a very small premium (c. 5%) for city properties IMO

Basically people can forget about hoping to achieve €600k+ on a e.g. Stillorgan 3 bed within the next couple of years IMO

thomas 123

Hubertj wrote: »

If people can wfh full time but live in rural areas they will move to larger towns and cities. Who would want to be stuck in a 1 horse town all day every day. Get to the city and get a life. After all rents will plummet when hundreds of thousands of people based in Dublin flee to the countryside and occupy all the vacant units.

Who would want to be stuck in a filthy city all day every day?

Horses for courses and all that ...

I also don’t think there are as many vacant “units” as you think the the countryside. Referring to a house as a unit is pretty sad also imo.

DataDude

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Who would look at sales trends on a MOM basis in the first place?
The report shows monthly sales, it gives an idea of where we stand. You can't compare one month with the previous one and pull a % drop like that.
Overall the 2020 sales, although low in volumes, have been consistently higher.
Anyone who has been bidding for properties in the last few months will be able to confirm this

We have a dedicated office that calculates house price inflation. Dublin house prices are down since October 2018 in both nominal and real terms. That is a fact. That is not my opinion.

Picking a clearly inferior dataset to try and contradict the official data is more disingenuous that anything you have accused props of before. In fact he has had comments moderated for less ‘obviously false’ statements.

Hubertj

thomas 123 wrote: »

Who would want to be stuck in a filthy city all day every day?

Horses for courses and all that ...

I also don’t think there are as many vacant “units” as you think the the countryside. Referring to a house as a unit is pretty sad also imo.

According to some of the experts on this thread there are literally hundreds of thousands of vacant units across the country. I have no reason to doubt the claims made by random punters on the internet.