2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Mic 1972

fago wrote: »

Per fig 1.3 from the CSO https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/

I've picked Oct 2018 as it looks like the Dublin peak based on eyeballing that chart.

Dublin:
- Oct 2018: 127.7
- Dec 2018: 125.1
Change -2.03% (125.1/127.7-1)*100

Rest of IE:
- Oct 2018: 142.1
- Dec 2020: 150.4
Change +5.8%

- Dublin prices peaked in Oct 2018, but assuming all the anecdotal stories here play out, that -2% should become flat or positive in the next 2-3 months

Overall picture is a 1.7% increase for whole of Ireland between Oct 2018 and Dec 2020. I'm not sure how that reflects wage inflation or other drivers, but sure feels like we're bouncing off some limiting factors for the last 2 years.

(Some better stats head can correct my maths but think it holds up)

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


The link above are property register prices, 2020 has the highest prices so far.
From personal experience I can see houses going sales agree for much higher than 2 years ago

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. Not dissimiliar to the chat re nothing to worry about MNCs downsizing their workforce due to global tax changes, they're based in Ireland for the highly qualified Irish workforce etc.

It seems like the most vocal proponents of this argument are fully paid up members of the highly qualified Irish workforce working for MNCs based in Ireland.

if you or props have any experience in trying to outsource lower level finance or legal admin tasks to other lower cost jurisdictions please share, if you don't then you don't know what you are talking about. It is at least 10 if not 20 years away where places like poland are a real threat to our status as a hub for MNCs, so the impact on the 2021 irish property market is nil.

As for the tax changes, the level of discourse about that on here is foundation level at best and is basically ooooh they are discussing tax reform thats ireland finished. How about we wait and see what the result is and then let the experts actually get into the detail of it before we proclaim the death of our economy?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

if you or props have any experience in trying to outsource lower level finance or legal admin tasks to other lower cost jurisdictions please share, if you don't then you don't know what you are talking about. It is at least 10 if not 20 years away where places like poland are a real threat to our status as a hub for MNCs, so the impact on the 2021 irish property market is nil.

As for the tax changes, the level of discourse about that on here is foundation level at best and is basically ooooh they are discussing tax reform thats ireland finished. How about we wait and see what the result is and then let the experts actually get into the detail of it before we proclaim the death of our economy?

How many of the team leaders in many of the multinationals are from eastern europe? Would they not jump at the chance of returning home? How many are currently WFH in eastern europe? It's a 2 - 3 hour flight away.

And the WFH decisions, like Liberty Insurance, are currently taking place and I assume their input, in many cases, is being taken.

And, Ireland isn't the multinational "hub" some make us out to be. Just this week on CNBC:

"Apple picks German city of Munich for major chip lab. Apple has 4,000 staff across Germany and it already employs 1,500 engineers across seven offices in Munich. It’s possible that some of them will be consolidated under one roof when the new building is ready. Munich is one of Europe’s leading tech hubs and other tech giants use it for R&D — Google employs around 1,000 people in the city."

And. that's just one city. I read before that Google employs c. 4,000 in Switzerland etc. etc. We're not really the multinational "hub" many make us out to be IMO

Link to CNBC article here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/apple-picks-german-city-of-munich-for-major-chip-lab.html

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

go watch room to improve, plenty of the houses are renovated outside dublin, the prices arent any less.

If you take two identical houses, one in limerick and one in dublin and they want to do the exact same renovation i doubt it would be that much cheaper, maybe 5% or so but not more.

No, dont watch room to improve.

Well do, but only if you want to see people spending absolute fortunes in an effort to get on TV. That show is not real prices at all.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

if you or props have any experience in trying to outsource lower level finance or legal admin tasks to other lower cost jurisdictions please share, if you don't then you don't know what you are talking about. It is at least 10 if not 20 years away where places like poland are a real threat to our status as a hub for MNCs, so the impact on the 2021 irish property market is nil.

As for the tax changes, the level of discourse about that on here is foundation level at best and is basically ooooh they are discussing tax reform thats ireland finished. How about we wait and see what the result is and then let the experts actually get into the detail of it before we proclaim the death of our economy?

I dont remember a time in the last 20 years that they werent discussing tax reforms.

fago

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


The link above are property register prices, 2020 has the highest prices so far.
From personal experience I can see houses going sales agree for much higher than 2 years ago

By implication the CSO, Central Statistics Office, cannot be relied upon as a source for statistics for residential price trends, and the link you present is better and more reliable source?

I suspect CSO do all the things a good statistician would do like controlling for various outliers, multi property units etc.
What I don't suspect is they have a vested interest either way in presenting statistics one way or another.

From personal experience I have bid on houses that have gone 120k under asking, and gone 100k over asking. We all have our experiences....

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

Thats a good point. I heard someone blaming "the dubs coming into town to buying up the houses" for rising property prices in rural Ireland, on the radio a few weeks ago. Dont buy it myself, because its too soon, but it definitely seems like it could happen in the remote event that WFH is massive.

Has it not being happening since 2018 with Dublin prices realitively flat and "commuter" counties increasing, surely WFH would accelerate and extend that process. I remember strong proposals for a new commuter Town at limerick junction railway station at the top of the last bubble.

What led to the ghost estates of the last crash only policies that drove people further and further away from their place of work

I'm not sure how many but Nama knocked down some of these estates. We had farmers who became minted selling land to developers only for nama to sell it back to the farmer at agricultural price

Your hearing alot of "this time its different" on this thread lately. Funny yet concerning how all the trends of the last bubble are repeating themselves

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

How many of the team leaders in many of the multinationals are from eastern europe? Would they not jump at the chance of returning home? How many are currently WFH in eastern europe? It's a 2 - 3 hour flight away.

And the WFH decisions, like Liberty Insurance, are currently taking place and I assume their input, in many cases, is being taken.

And, Ireland isn't the multinational "hub" some make us out to be. Just this week on CNBC:

"Apple picks German city of Munich for major chip lab. Apple has 4,000 staff across Germany and it already employs 1,500 engineers across seven offices in Munich. It’s possible that some of them will be consolidated under one roof when the new building is ready. Munich is one of Europe’s leading tech hubs and other tech giants use it for R&D — Google employs around 1,000 people in the city."

And. that's just one city. I read before that Google employs c. 4,000 in Switzerland etc. etc. We're not really the multinational "hub" many make us out to be IMO

Link to CNBC article here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/apple-picks-german-city-of-munich-for-major-chip-lab.html

i presume you read the article you linked from the irish times? Liberty have said they have to remain in the country they are employed in.

yagan

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


The link above are property register prices, 2020 has the highest prices so far.
From personal experience I can see houses going sales agree for much higher than 2 years ago

According to the PPR that's on a reduced volume from previous years.

If I remember rightly prices continued to climb for two years after sales volumes started to decline from late 06.

However I wouldn't draw any conclusions going on comparisons between 12 months of on/off Covid travel/construction/viewings restrictions and the previous years.

Cyrus

In need of some upgrading is some understatement

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/brandon-31-trees-road-mount-merrion-co-dublin-a94-x6y7/4488621

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

That's what I don't get about Dublin "renovations". I think it's more that they're willing to spend extra as they believe it will result in their home having a significantly increased market value.

However, take any standard house in Dublin City and then take any similar standard house in e.g. Limerick City.

Do you really believe that the owner of the property in Limerick is spending hundreds of thousands on renovations for the same works? No, they're not.

It's just that the people living in Dublin appear to believe the narrative that their home will be worth hundreds of thousands more after the "renovation" works and this is factored into the quotes they receive and the people in Limerick know it won't so spend considerably less and are quoted much less for the same works.

The cost of "renovation" works in Dublin will fall very significantly once the owners begin to realise there's going to be really no significant uplift in value after the renovation works are completed. At the very best it may retain it's pre-renovation value going forward IMO

Do you own any property and have you ever renovated one?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

i presume you read the article you linked from the irish times? Liberty have said they have to remain in the country they are employed in.

Well, they're not going to throw too many big changes at them in one go

johnnyskeleton

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


The link above are property register prices, 2020 has the highest prices so far.
From personal experience I can see houses going sales agree for much higher than 2 years ago

Are you talking about national or dublin prices? Your link also shows that prices for Dublin in 2019 and 2020 are lower than 2018

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

In need of some upgrading is some understatement

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/brandon-31-trees-road-mount-merrion-co-dublin-a94-x6y7/4488621

That's pure luxuy compared to my house when I bought it and 50X or more better than my first house. Insulation looks like the big issue.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. Not dissimiliar to the chat re nothing to worry about MNCs downsizing their workforce due to global tax changes, they're based in Ireland for the highly qualified Irish workforce etc.

It seems like the most vocal proponents of this argument are fully paid up members of the highly qualified Irish workforce working for MNCs based in Ireland.

With WFH they could leave Dublin and buy 1 of the mystical vacant properties you keep banging on about. Hundreds of thousands of them out there.

It’s also good for city folk to move to more rural locations, brings a bit of sophistication to the countryside.

Cyrus

cnocbui wrote: »

That's pure luxuy compared to my house when I bought it and 50X or more better than my first house. Insulation looks like the big issue.

yep, id imagine its cold doing the washing

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. Not dissimiliar to the chat re nothing to worry about MNCs downsizing their workforce due to global tax changes, they're based in Ireland for the highly qualified Irish workforce etc.

It seems like the most vocal proponents of this argument are fully paid up members of the highly qualified Irish workforce working for MNCs based in Ireland.

I think the most obvious thing in this thread is that there are many people posting who have not got a notion how these companies operate, who works for them, what the make up of their staff is etc.

Genuinely not a notion. Some of the stuff posted on this thread is bizarre, other stuff is just straight up falsehoods.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

How many of the team leaders in many of the multinationals are from eastern europe? Would they not jump at the chance of returning home? How many are currently WFH in eastern europe? It's a 2 - 3 hour flight away.

And the WFH decisions, like Liberty Insurance, are currently taking place and I assume their input, in many cases, is being taken.

And, Ireland isn't the multinational "hub" some make us out to be. Just this week on CNBC:

"Apple picks German city of Munich for major chip lab. Apple has 4,000 staff across Germany and it already employs 1,500 engineers across seven offices in Munich. It’s possible that some of them will be consolidated under one roof when the new building is ready. Munich is one of Europe’s leading tech hubs and other tech giants use it for R&D — Google employs around 1,000 people in the city."

And. that's just one city. I read before that Google employs c. 4,000 in Switzerland etc. etc. We're not really the multinational "hub" many make us out to be IMO

Link to CNBC article here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/apple-picks-german-city-of-munich-for-major-chip-lab.html

Exactly.

So according to PropQueries:

Liberty announce remote working, this is a trend setter, it indicates the future. They're all going to do this, here's the proof.

Numerous much larger companies than Liberty announce hybrid working. Apple literally announce new office space in the past few days. Nothing to see here, means nothing, let's talk about something else, not a trend setter, definitely not going to be the future. Sure Hybrid working could not possibly work, let's just ignore the fact that it's been a thing for decades.

You really do take whatever news you can find and try your best to twist it into the most negative possible news. I see we're back to the "they're all going to move to Eastern Europe" thing again. It is exhausting reading your posts.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I think the most obvious thing in this thread is that there are many people posting who have not got a notion how these companies operate, who works for them, what the make up of their staff is etc.

Genuinely not a notion. Some of the stuff posted on this thread is bizarre, other stuff is just straight up falsehoods.

So the Irish Times article on Liberty Insurance stating that "all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed". is a "falsehood"?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

So the Irish Times article on Liberty Insurance stating that "all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed". is a "falsehood"?

Nope, that is true.

But it's what you extrapolate out of this. You've taken this news, and now you're asking how many eastern europeans work for MNCs and all sorts of nonsense.

I've asked you this before but you obviously declined to answer. Why do you think the likes of Liberty announcing remote work is setting the direction of what's going to happen, while you think the Apples, Googles, Microsofts etc etc announcing hybrid working is not indicative of the future trends?

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Nope, that is true.

But it's what you extrapolate out of this. You've taken this news, and now you're asking how many eastern europeans work for MNCs and all sorts of nonsense.

I've asked you this before but you obviously declined to answer. Why do you think the likes of Liberty announcing remote work is setting the direction of what's going to happen, while you think the Apples, Googles, Microsofts etc etc announcing hybrid working is not indicative of the future trends?

As I believe I stated before, many companies will try this "Hybrid" model "nonsense" and once they do, they will realise very quickly it's not going to work and they will move very quickly to either full time WFH or full time in the office.

It looks like Liberty Insurance has already taken my viewpoint on it.

HansKroenke

Jabari Flabby Dice wrote: »

A friend works for a pensions company, they have disposed of their office and told everyone there will be no office in future. Was done fairly unilaterally, no asking the employees, office just gone.

Commercial property is the ghost estate of the next bust. With commercial property values on the prime commercial street in Ireland written down 20-25% so far, this says it all. As has been said countless times, the pandemic has only accelerated trends, such as the lack of a need for bricks and mortar retail and physical office space. The bag holders are those who ticked the risky investment box in their pension form and international investors. To a large extent, the taxpayer in Ireland is insulated from this exposure.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

As I believe I stated before, many companies will try this "Hybrid" model "nonsense" and once they do, they will realise very quickly it's not going to work and they will move very quickly to either full time WFH or full time in the office.

It looks like Liberty Insurance has already taken my viewpoint on it.

so you know better than the executives at the most successful companies in the world?

JimmyVik

I just spoke to a friend with a fairly high position in Liberty.
It seems there may be more to this story than meets the eye. I cant say anymore
But i wouldnt be holding them up as the bellwether on WFH at this point.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

so you know better than the executives at the most successful companies in the world?

Never said that. It's only been 12 months. Companies will no doubt test various working procedures, but will eventually decide to go with either full time WFH or full time in the office.

Many would also have signed expensive office leases and may continue to use them until the next lease break. But either way, and I've stated it before, hybrid working won't be the end outcome in most cases and in many cases, full time WFH will be fully embraced eventually.

Mic 1972

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Are you talking about national or dublin prices? Your link also shows that prices for Dublin in 2019 and 2020 are lower than 2018

Both Dublin and non Dublin, 2020 prices appear higher than 2019 and 2018

DataDude

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Both Dublin and non Dublin, 2020 prices appear higher than 2019 and 2018

Thankfully, as has been posted by myself and others numerous times in response to your assertions, we have a Central Statistic Office which deals with such matters. In fact they just updated today and Dublin Jan-21 prices are 1.5% lower than their October 2018 PEAK. And that's in nominal terms, real terms the difference would be closer to 5%.

I guess it's only Props who gets in trouble for "repeatedly posting false statements"!

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/

tigger123

PropQueries wrote: »

Never said that. It's only been 12 months. Companies will no doubt test various working procedures, but will eventually decide to go with either full time WFH or full time in the office.

Many would also have signed expensive office leases and may continue to use them until the next lease break. But either way, and I've stated it before, hybrid working won't be the end outcome in most cases and in many cases, full time WFH will be fully embraced eventually.

The confidence and veracity of this position is truly baffling.

'It's either one or the other. But a mix of the two? NEVER!'

MacronvFrugals

From every angle the state is keeping the show on the road, Part V is a nice little earner for developers


'Eastwise to charge Dublin City Council €531k for two-bed apartments'

Eastwise, a Dublin construction firm, plans to sell 27 two-bedroom apartments to Dublin City Council for €531,000 each as part of the proposed development of a 475-unit complex on the north side of the city.

The developers are seeking planning permission for Hartfield Place, a development on the Swords Road between Santry and Drumcondra.

As part of its planning application, Eastwise is obligated to allocate 47 apartments – or 10 per cent of the complex

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/eastwise-to-charge-dublin-city-council-eur531k-for-two-bed-apartments-1a219e3f

tigger123

Article on the Irish Times a few moments ago: House price growth accelerates to 2.6% as market defies pandemic low'.

Linked here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-accelerates-to-2-6-as-market-defies-pandemic-low-1.4508597