2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/british-recruitment-drive-for-builders-sparks-fear-of-exodus-1.4508053

This is unfortunate but to be expected. It will further delay the completion of existing projects, the start of new projects and the renovation of the 1 million + vacant units out there. All part of the conspiracy to further reduce / restrict supply?

My friends brother ended up driving machinery at a mine in Ghana after 2008.

While I understand you probably state that number in jest, that figure may be actually not too far off the mark of the number of already existing "potential" housing units in the Irish market at the moment

As David McWilliams stated back in 2018:

"How come there are only 100,000 people living between the canals in Dublin when at the same time in Copenhagen there are close to 600,000 living in more or less the same footprint? Copenhagen a not high-rise city, rather it is an intensively-used six-storey city. The main difference is usage. In Copenhagen buildings are used in their entirety; in Dublin and other Irish cities they have been allowed to go to ruin, and there is no penalty associated with dereliction."

So, that's a potential 500,000 bed spaces just between the canals in Dublin City. Throw in similar underused space throughout the rest of Co. Dublin and throughout all the other cities, towns and villages in Ireland, existing vacant units according to the GeoDirectory, Census etc. and it's entirely possible we actually do have that amount of potential space in Ireland at this very moment

One would think the Green Party would be jumping all over this method to reduce our "carbon footprint", especially with all the increases in carbon taxes that are being proposed to tackle that very issue.

Link to David McWIlliams 2018 article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/dereliction-is-legalised-vandalism-for-the-property-owning-classes/

PropQueries

Some more news on the WFH and it's potential impact on the demand for housing in our urban centres in Ireland, even if the covid thing passes in the next couple of months. According to the Irish Times today:

"Liberty Insurance has told its more than 400 Irish employees that they can work remotely even after the Covid-19 crisis is over. The insurer said all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed, with the option of spending up to two days per week in the office to carry out specific activities or hold face-to-face meetings."

They're definitely not considering the "hybrid" model.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/liberty-insurance-in-for-the-long-term-on-remote-working-1.4507820

DataDude

PropQueries wrote: »

Some more news on the WFH and it's potential impact on the demand for housing in our urban centres in Ireland, even if the covid thing passes in the next couple of months. According to the Irish Times today:

"Liberty Insurance has told its more than 400 Irish employees that they can work remotely even after the Covid-19 crisis is over. The insurer said all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed, with the option of spending up to two days per week in the office to carry out specific activities or hold face-to-face meetings."

They're definitely not considering the "hybrid" model.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/liberty-insurance-in-for-the-long-term-on-remote-working-1.4507820

Know a couple of people reasonably high up in Liberty. Interestingly the company actually wanted even less entitlement to office time. It was the staff representative group which fought to retain the right for up to two days in the office if they choose. Not sure how strictly it will be enforced but the entitlement ‘to spend up to two days in the office’ is going to be a contractual maximum.

They are definitely an early mover on this but it will be interesting to see if it has any contagion effect. It is on our senior management team agenda for next week...

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Know a couple of people reasonably high up in Liberty. Interestingly the company actually wanted even less entitlement to office time. It was the staff representative group which fought to retain the right for up to two days in the office if they choose. Not sure how strictly it will be enforced but the entitlement ‘to spend up to two days in the office’ is going to be a contractual maximum.

They are definitely an early mover on this but it will be interesting to see if it has any contagion effect. It is on our senior management team agenda for next week...

This backs up my belief that all the talk about WFH never catching on because employees can't wait to get back to the office is missing the point.

It is the employers that will set the WFH agenda, and for many industries - insurance a perfect example - full time WFH is a very attractive idea for employers.

JimmyVik

They would be better off building a new large town in the midlands somewhere.
Start off from scratch and put in roads, trains etc and all the houses you could ever dream of.
This trying to build more in Dublin is just a fools game.

PropQueries

DataDude wrote: »

Know a couple of people reasonably high up in Liberty. Interestingly the company actually wanted even less entitlement to office time. It was the staff representative group which fought to retain the right for up to two days in the office if they choose. Not sure how strictly it will be enforced but the entitlement ‘to spend up to two days in the office’ is going to be a contractual maximum.

They are definitely an early mover on this but it will be interesting to see if it has any contagion effect. It is on our senior management team agenda for next week...

I wonder will the revenue need to start keeping a better track of the number of days the senior executives in these companies spend in Ireland.

My understanding is that the only real requirement for considering Ireland as a base for taxation purposes is that the decisions are made here. Everyone else can be shipped abroad.

Open to correction on that one as some here appear more clued in on the current requirements.

yagan

JimmyVik wrote: »

They would be better off building a new large town in the midlands somewhere.
Start off from scratch and put in roads, trains etc and all the houses you could ever dream of.
This trying to build more in Dublin is just a fools game.

Ironically we may end up with a surplus between the canals, but far fewer will want to live there when WFH is an option. I wouldn't live down the stabby docks if you paid me.

I work for a large multinational and they can’t wait to have us back in the office. I doubt there will be any option to work from home, at all.

My partner works for another multinational and they’ve always been a bit more flexible about wfm. They’ve been getting surveys asking people if they’d prefer to go back to the office full time, a few days a week or stay at home fully. Just to get an idea of what people want I guess.

fago

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Prices haven't peaked in 2018, and very clearly aren't decreasing, this narrative is incorrect

Per fig 1.3 from the CSO https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/

I've picked Oct 2018 as it looks like the Dublin peak based on eyeballing that chart.

Dublin:
- Oct 2018: 127.7
- Dec 2018: 125.1
Change -2.03% (125.1/127.7-1)*100

Rest of IE:
- Oct 2018: 142.1
- Dec 2020: 150.4
Change +5.8%

- Dublin prices peaked in Oct 2018, but assuming all the anecdotal stories here play out, that -2% should become flat or positive in the next 2-3 months

Overall picture is a 1.7% increase for whole of Ireland between Oct 2018 and Dec 2020. I'm not sure how that reflects wage inflation or other drivers, but sure feels like we're bouncing off some limiting factors for the last 2 years.

(Some better stats head can correct my maths but think it holds up)

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

This backs up my belief that all the talk about WFH never catching on because employees can't wait to get back to the office is missing the point.

It is the employers that will set the WFH agenda, and for many industries - insurance a perfect example - full time WFH is a very attractive idea for employers.

Great for their Dublin employees. I’d pay not to have to go to blanchardstown every day.

JimmyVik

Lia_lia wrote: »

I work for a large multinational and they can’t wait to have us back in the office. I doubt there will be any option to work from home, at all.

My partner works for another multinational and they’ve always been a bit more flexible about wfm. They’ve been getting surveys asking people if they’d prefer to go back to the office full time, a few days a week or stay at home fully. Just to get an idea of what people want I guess.

We are hopeful that we will get 1 day a week working from home (multinational).
The other half has already been told, not a chance of it.

johnnyskeleton

Zenify wrote: »

Maybe I'm wrong but as long as that graph is above the 0 line it would indicate the market has not peaked...? That line indicates the growth percentage, it doesn't actually represent growth.

Figure 1.2 shows prices going below 0% for Dublin.

Figure 1.3 shows the index for Dublin peaking in October, 2018 at 127.5 i.e. 27.5 points higher than the baseline prices at mid 2015. They are currently at 125.1 but haven't exceeded the October, 2018 index of 127.5.

Hence, Dublin prices peaked in October, 2018

EDIT: Just saw fago's post now, thanks

yagan

Lia_lia wrote: »

I work for a large multinational and they can’t wait to have us back in the office. I doubt there will be any option to work from home, at all.

My partner works for another multinational and they’ve always been a bit more flexible about wfm. They’ve been getting surveys asking people if they’d prefer to go back to the office full time, a few days a week or stay at home fully. Just to get an idea of what people want I guess.

The thing about a company not embracing WFH is that their staff can be lured away by the offer of WFH. When you factor in the money and time saved by not commuting people will jump ship for even a lower salary.

Where it's possible WHF will be part of the package from now on. Presenteeism only suits landlords and businesses will take advantage of any chance to cut office overheads.

The commercial property industry is going to peddle hard against WFH, expect to see lots paid pieces posing as journalism attacking it.

Villa05

Marius34 wrote:

There is no general consensus. But here is what likely to happen. Prices will go up this year. Wouldn't know direction after 3 years, but there will be ups and downs, but very likely we will never see prices of lows of 2020.

Is this prediction based on the inflation theory. How do you see the state using the long term leasing model over building working out in that scenario.
If inflation really takes off, how will the rise in interest rates to cool inflation affect the market

PropQueries wrote:

Some more news on the WFH and it's potential impact on the demand for housing in our urban centres in Ireland, even if the covid thing passes in the next couple of months. According to the Irish Times today:

Given Gov's demand side policies making the housing issue worse, would you be concerned that WFH could potentially spread the affordability problem rather than resolving it.


Kerry group have announced 150 administrative job losses which will be going to Mexico and Malaysia from Charleville and Naas. Many of the workers in Charleville affected have been with the company for decades

If people working in semi/rural indegenious industry have to compete with high paid workers in multinationals, this could inflict serious damage on those sectors

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

full time WFH is a very attractive idea for employers.

as a cost cutting exercise yes maybe, people should be careful what they wish for in that regard.

Also compare the response to libertys announcement here versus the David Solomon from Goldman sachs. Turkeys and christmas springs to mind.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this prediction based on the inflation theory. How do you see the state using the long term leasing model over building working out in that scenario.
If inflation really takes off, how will the rise in interest rates to cool inflation affect the market

Yes, this is based on inflation effect. I expect in medium/long term inflation to be over 1% in average. The higher the inflation the higher interest rates we can expect.

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this prediction based on the inflation theory. How do you see the state using the long term leasing model over building working out in that scenario.
If inflation really takes off, how will the rise in interest rates to cool inflation affect the market




Given Gov's demand side policies making the housing issue worse, would you be concerned that WFH could potentially spread the affordability problem rather than resolving it.


Kerry group have announced 150 administrative job losses which will be going to Mexico and Malaysia from Charleville and Naas. Many of the workers in Charleville affected have been with the company for decades

If people working in semi/rural indegenious industry have to compete with high paid workers in multinationals, this could inflict serious damage on those sectors

I wouldn't be too concerned, even with the narrative being spun by certain groups that the big demand for rural properties will increase prices.

While there's nothing but empty properties or potential housing space in all our major cities, there really is nothing but empty properties, many all ready to go, available outside our cities.

Even if they need to be "renovated", this can be done very cheaply and very quickly and all that excess supply outside our urban centres can/will re-enter the market very quickly if demand does indeed increase, so this will put a lid on any potential price jumps outside the cities fairly quickly IMO

The way I see it going is that prices in the cities will drop significantly to discourage people leaving and compete with rural areas and we'll see only a very small premium being paid for city homes vs rural homes in the not too distant future IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Even if they need to be "renovated", this can be done very cheaply and very quickly

renovations are cheap and quick? i must tell that to the people spending 100s of thousands to renovate their houses at the moment :pac:

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

Some more news on the WFH and it's potential impact on the demand for housing in our urban centres in Ireland, even if the covid thing passes in the next couple of months. According to the Irish Times today:

"Liberty Insurance has told its more than 400 Irish employees that they can work remotely even after the Covid-19 crisis is over. The insurer said all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed, with the option of spending up to two days per week in the office to carry out specific activities or hold face-to-face meetings."

They're definitely not considering the "hybrid" model.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/liberty-insurance-in-for-the-long-term-on-remote-working-1.4507820

A friend works for a pensions company, they have disposed of their office and told everyone there will be no office in future. Was done fairly unilaterally, no asking the employees, office just gone.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

as a cost cutting exercise yes maybe, people should be careful what they wish for in that regard.

Also compare the response to libertys announcement here versus the David Solomon from Goldman sachs. Turkeys and christmas springs to mind.

This is particularly interesting for Liberty as they have some mixing of teams across Ireland and lower paid employees in Portugal/Spain.

I've put the idea to friends that it's only a matter of time before they're on the chopping block, and did so again (a little in jest) after this latest announcement.

They have always said that it's been tried before, but in the end the extra cost is worth it for the "generally more highly qualified/highly paid Irish equivalents"...but then again these are highly qualified/highly paid Irish people so there will be some bias of course.

Certainly, if I had a very basic operational role in Liberty, that I enjoyed, I wouldn't be cheering this announcement.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

renovations are cheap and quick? i must tell that to the people spending 100s of thousands to renovate their houses at the moment :pac:

That's what I don't get about Dublin "renovations". I think it's more that they're willing to spend extra as they believe it will result in their home having a significantly increased market value.

However, take any standard house in Dublin City and then take any similar standard house in e.g. Limerick City.

Do you really believe that the owner of the property in Limerick is spending hundreds of thousands on renovations for the same works? No, they're not.

It's just that the people living in Dublin appear to believe the narrative that their home will be worth hundreds of thousands more after the "renovation" works and this is factored into the quotes they receive and the people in Limerick know it won't so spend considerably less and are quoted much less for the same works.

The cost of "renovation" works in Dublin will fall very significantly once the owners begin to realise there's going to be really no significant uplift in value after the renovation works are completed. At the very best it may retain it's pre-renovation value going forward IMO

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

This is particularly interesting for Liberty as they have some mixing of teams across Ireland and lower paid employees in Portugal/Spain.

I've put the idea to friends that it's only a matter of time before they're on the chopping block, and did so again (a little in jest) after this latest announcement.

They have always said that it's been tried before, but in the end the extra cost is worth it for the "generally more highly qualified/highly paid Irish equivalents"...but then again these are highly qualified/highly paid Irish people so there will be some bias of course.

Certainly, if I had a very basic operational role in Liberty, that I enjoyed, I wouldn't be cheering this announcement.

i do maintain that the same breadth of experience especially at the higher levels doesnt tend to be available in lower cost jurisdictions (at the moment at least) thats why despite props assertions you wont see wholesale moves of irish jobs to other locations as it just isnt possible yet.

Thats not to say it wont happen in 10-20 years.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this prediction based on the inflation theory. How do you see the state using the long term leasing model over building working out in that scenario.
If inflation really takes off, how will the rise in interest rates to cool inflation affect the market




Given Gov's demand side policies making the housing issue worse, would you be concerned that WFH could potentially spread the affordability problem rather than resolving it.


Kerry group have announced 150 administrative job losses which will be going to Mexico and Malaysia from Charleville and Naas. Many of the workers in Charleville affected have been with the company for decades

If people working in semi/rural indegenious industry have to compete with high paid workers in multinationals, this could inflict serious damage on those sectors

Thats a good point. I heard someone blaming "the dubs coming into town to buying up the houses" for rising property prices in rural Ireland, on the radio a few weeks ago.
Dont buy it myself, because its too soon, but it definitely seems like it could happen in the remote event that WFH is massive.

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

This is particularly interesting for Liberty as they have some mixing of teams across Ireland and lower paid employees in Portugal/Spain.

I've put the idea to friends that it's only a matter of time before they're on the chopping block, and did so again (a little in jest) after this latest announcement.

They have always said that it's been tried before, but in the end the extra cost is worth it for the "generally more highly qualified/highly paid Irish equivalents"...but then again these are highly qualified/highly paid Irish people so there will be some bias of course.

Certainly, if I had a very basic operational role in Liberty, that I enjoyed, I wouldn't be cheering this announcement.

They love their siestas in Iberia. Of course they work later into the evening. What a load of.... worked for Telefonica for 10 years and spent a lot of time in Madrid. Very little work gets done after about 3pm. Sweeping generalisation i know but just my experience

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

That's what I don't get about Dublin "renovations". I think it's more that they're willing to spend extra as they believe it will result in their home having a significantly increased market value.

However, take any standard house in Dublin City and then take any similar standard house in e.g. Limerick City.

Do you really believe that the owner of the property in Limerick is spending hundreds of thousands on renovations for the same works? No, they're not.

It's just that the people living in Dublin appear to believe the narrative that their home will be worth hundreds of thousands more after the "renovation" works and this is factored into the quotes they receive and the people in Limerick know it won't so spend considerably less and are quoted much less for the same works.

The cost of "renovation" works in Dublin will fall very significantly once the owners begin to realise there's going to be really no significant uplift in value after the renovation works are completed. At the very best it may retain it's pre-renovation value going forward IMO

go watch room to improve, plenty of the houses are renovated outside dublin, the prices arent any less.

If you take two identical houses, one in limerick and one in dublin and they want to do the exact same renovation i doubt it would be that much cheaper, maybe 5% or so but not more.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this prediction based on the inflation theory. How do you see the state using the long term leasing model over building working out in that scenario.
If inflation really takes off, how will the rise in interest rates to cool inflation affect the market




Given Gov's demand side policies making the housing issue worse, would you be concerned that WFH could potentially spread the affordability problem rather than resolving it.


Kerry group have announced 150 administrative job losses which will be going to Mexico and Malaysia from Charleville and Naas. Many of the workers in Charleville affected have been with the company for decades

If people working in semi/rural indegenious industry have to compete with high paid workers in multinationals, this could inflict serious damage on those sectors

Apparently there are hundreds of thousands of vacant properties around the country which can be very cheaply brought back into use. That should help

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

That's what I don't get about Dublin "renovations". I think it's more that they're willing to spend extra as they believe it will result in their home having a significantly increased market value.

However, take any standard house in Dublin City and then take any similar standard house in e.g. Limerick City.

Do you really believe that the owner of the property in Limerick is spending hundreds of thousands on renovations for the same works? No, they're not.

It's just that the people living in Dublin appear to believe the narrative that their home will be worth hundreds of thousands more after the "renovation" works and this is factored into the quotes they receive and the people in Limerick know it won't so spend considerably less and are quoted much less for the same works.

The cost of "renovation" works in Dublin will fall very significantly once the owners begin to realise there's going to be really no significant uplift in value after the renovation works are completed. At the very best it may retain it's pre-renovation value going forward IMO

Its the demand for the renovators that is causing the price of it to rise.
I personally thing anyone getting renovations nowadays is an idiot. The prices charged are just out of this world.
There was someone in another thread telling people it would cost €10k to €20k to knock down a stud wall dividing kitchen and dining room.
I can do that for €500 to €1000, depending on whats on the floor.
No way could I justify asking some idiot for 5 - 10k to do that job, even if i did work in the trade.

JimmyVik

Hubertj wrote: »

Apparently there are hundreds of thousands of vacant properties around the country which can be very cheaply brought back into use. That should help

I saw a row of 5 of them in Leitrim for sale for €60k each and stopped in for a nosey. Empty, but quite well on and weatherproof.

If you chipped in with a few friends they could all be brought up to scratch for id guess €40k each.


Problem is if you only bought one of them and did it up you would be living in a tip of a development for many years to come.

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its the demand for the renovators that is causing the price of it to rise.
I personally thing anyone getting renovations nowadays is an idiot. The prices charged are just out of this world.
There was someone in another thread telling people it would cost €10k to €20k to knock down a stud wall dividing kitchen and dining room.
I can do that for €500 to €1000, depending on whats on the floor.
No way could I justify asking some idiot for 5 - 10k to do that job, even if i did work in the trade.

That's the issue. People see their neighbour getting "renovations" and the neighbour tells them it cost e.g. €50k, but will "increase" the value of their house by e.g. €100k.

Then, when they decide to get the same renovations and are quoted a similar figure, they just go with it as they have nothing to compare it to and believe the renovations will pay for themselves due to the potential increase in market value post renovation works.

As market values start falling, that mindset will change very quickly in the not too distant future IMO

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

This is particularly interesting for Liberty as they have some mixing of teams across Ireland and lower paid employees in Portugal/Spain.

I've put the idea to friends that it's only a matter of time before they're on the chopping block, and did so again (a little in jest) after this latest announcement.

They have always said that it's been tried before, but in the end the extra cost is worth it for the "generally more highly qualified/highly paid Irish equivalents"...but then again these are highly qualified/highly paid Irish people so there will be some bias of course.

Certainly, if I had a very basic operational role in Liberty, that I enjoyed, I wouldn't be cheering this announcement.

Indeed. Not dissimiliar to the chat re nothing to worry about MNCs downsizing their workforce due to global tax changes, they're based in Ireland for the highly qualified Irish workforce etc.

It seems like the most vocal proponents of this argument are fully paid up members of the highly qualified Irish workforce working for MNCs based in Ireland.