Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

Black_Knight

Shedite27 wrote: »

We're back baby

You had to taunt the stocks Gods, didn't you. Today didn't start bad at all. Not a whole lot up by the end of the day

MAJJ

Timmaay wrote: »

I was gonna post this on the NIO thread because there are 2 posters there who are like 30% down, but its probably more relevant in here. For several investors here who only started investing in the last few months this current pullback is probably your 1st major correction, especially if you are heavy in growth stocks like EVs etc. This is a whole new set of emotions that yous are going to have to face, the prospect of having a negative account balance for an unknown amount of time, weeks or months, and when do you cut your losses? I had to go through all this last March during the Corona crash, and I've no issues admitting that I bottled it and sold nearly everything when the pain of losing money got too great (at around a 25% loss). I sold both good and bad then, NIO at 4.50 and APPs at 5.90, God they were 2 that I really missed out on ha. So anyways all I'll say to anyone who is suffering at the minute, the golden rule still is find good companies that you'd be happy to own no matter what the share price is, make sure you don't make any rash decisions right now and sell something that you might well regret later, however equally so if your getting a serious reality check that you've invested too much of your savings into the market on the bases that stonks only go up, then simple fact is you need to get a plan to reduce your market exposure, the best place to start here would be to trim them companies that you bought on a whim and didn't really have any conviction on, next best to them are the companies that you really cant see much of an upside potential. Sit down and be honest with yourself, plan it all out and don't do anything too quick, and certainly don't waste any energy on regrets about not timing the top, it is absolutely impossible to time the top or bottom, all you can do is have your ground rules in place and improve them over time.

I really appreciate the openess and honesty in this and other posts you make. There's lots of details and ups and downs, lots of lessons we can all share and learn from. Thanks and why did go look at DeGiro and see almost all red !

jake frost

Timmaay wrote: »

I was gonna post this on the NIO thread because there are 2 posters there who are like 30% down, but its probably more relevant in here. For several investors here who only started investing in the last few months this current pullback is probably your 1st major correction, especially if you are heavy in growth stocks like EVs etc. This is a whole new set of emotions that yous are going to have to face, the prospect of having a negative account balance for an unknown amount of time, weeks or months, and when do you cut your losses? I had to go through all this last March during the Corona crash, and I've no issues admitting that I bottled it and sold nearly everything when the pain of losing money got too great (at around a 25% loss). I sold both good and bad then, NIO at 4.50 and APPs at 5.90, God they were 2 that I really missed out on ha. So anyways all I'll say to anyone who is suffering at the minute, the golden rule still is find good companies that you'd be happy to own no matter what the share price is, make sure you don't make any rash decisions right now and sell something that you might well regret later, however equally so if your getting a serious reality check that you've invested too much of your savings into the market on the bases that stonks only go up, then simple fact is you need to get a plan to reduce your market exposure, the best place to start here would be to trim them companies that you bought on a whim and didn't really have any conviction on, next best to them are the companies that you really cant see much of an upside potential. Sit down and be honest with yourself, plan it all out and don't do anything too quick, and certainly don't waste any energy on regrets about not timing the top, it is absolutely impossible to time the top or bottom, all you can do is have your ground rules in place and improve them over time.

Appreciate your post and all your advices.. Yeah true feeling a bit blue with seeing all this red, but learning all the time. Thank you. To qoute Omar " It's all in game Yo. All in the game".

weemcd

Timmaay wrote: »

I was gonna post this on the NIO thread because there are 2 posters there who are like 30% down, but its probably more relevant in here. For several investors here who only started investing in the last few months this current pullback is probably your 1st major correction, especially if you are heavy in growth stocks like EVs etc. This is a whole new set of emotions that yous are going to have to face, the prospect of having a negative account balance for an unknown amount of time, weeks or months, and when do you cut your losses? I had to go through all this last March during the Corona crash, and I've no issues admitting that I bottled it and sold nearly everything when the pain of losing money got too great (at around a 25% loss). I sold both good and bad then, NIO at 4.50 and APPs at 5.90, God they were 2 that I really missed out on ha. So anyways all I'll say to anyone who is suffering at the minute, the golden rule still is find good companies that you'd be happy to own no matter what the share price is, make sure you don't make any rash decisions right now and sell something that you might well regret later, however equally so if your getting a serious reality check that you've invested too much of your savings into the market on the bases that stonks only go up, then simple fact is you need to get a plan to reduce your market exposure, the best place to start here would be to trim them companies that you bought on a whim and didn't really have any conviction on, next best to them are the companies that you really cant see much of an upside potential. Sit down and be honest with yourself, plan it all out and don't do anything too quick, and certainly don't waste any energy on regrets about not timing the top, it is absolutely impossible to time the top or bottom, all you can do is have your ground rules in place and improve them over time.

You are absolutely spot on here. I sold a small holding of NIO at a similar price and I could kick myself for not letting it run. Hindsight and all that but I should have had the conviction to just let it run.

cc87

UWMC, which I've been deep in the red with until today (it hit my BEP after hours so fingers crossed it's not just getting some sympathy from the RKT squeeze), has a 14% short interest and an ex-div date coming up on the 9th

Am I right in that anyone with a short position has to pay the dividend to their broker?
Does it have ay affect on the short interest itself?

pioneerpro

circadian wrote: »

My point was, and I understand you saying that larger companies will be in on MS and much less likely to go for the likes of Zoom but there are a hell of a lot of small businesses doing remote working for the first time and relying heavily on Zoom to do business.

I wouldn't disagree with anything you've said really, but would have to reinforce the point that the Zoom stuff is mostly used on the Free or cheapest Tier for SME stuff. The money to be made in b2b and b2c is at the volume and SLA enforced scale. Once you scale up the featureset just isn't that rich in comparison to its closest competitors, and I'm honestly of the opinion that their UI/UX is worst-in-class - and I've used BlueJeans and most of the other stuff at one point or another.

If their tech stack, and willingness to improve upon the core offering was improved, I might be more optimistic about them. They basically have a good warchest and name recognition, both of which go a long way, but they compete against heavy-duty vertically integrated companies. I'd need to see a fairly compelling USP or new use-case before I'd recommend them to anyone as a value stock purchase, and their stock price really doesn't reflect reality atm imo. Who knows though, and competition in the sector is only a good thing.

retalivity

Anybody else's Degiro showing crazy numbers for UWMC?
It closed at 9.13, degiro shows 10.40 while the AH price is currently 11.65. Didn't think the US prices changed until market opens

cc87

retalivity wrote: »

Anybody else's Degiro showing crazy numbers for UWMC?
It closed at 9.13, degiro shows 10.40 while the AH price is currently 11.65. Didn't think the US prices changed until market opens

Same.

Sell limit is still based off the 9.13 unfortunately though

Gamma1

VonLuck wrote: »

Anyone looking at STPK as a possible renewable energy / tech stock?

Yes took a punt here based on Citroën report (much lambasted) here. Disappointing like all SPACS but will hold.

bish76

cc87 wrote: »

Same.

Sell limit is still based off the 9.13 unfortunately though

Sold it yesterday at 9.0 BEP 🀣 after waiting for two months.

pioneerpro

Gamma1 wrote: »

Yes took a punt here based on Citroën report (much lambasted) here. Disappointing like all SPACS but will hold.

HZON apparently picked up SportRadar last night - that's an *incredibly* hot backend play, pivotal to things like Flutter entertainment (PP, Betfair etc...) breaking the US sports-gambling market. Will be interesting to see the market reception - if it doesn't do significant numbers today then the SPAC market is still (temporarily) fairly depressed beyond the redemption of any one SPAC. Trading at about $12 from ~$10.15 in premarket.

cc87

Covaxin Phase 3 preliminary results out.
81% effective.

OCGN up 25% pre-market

voodoo

cc87 wrote: »

Covaxin Phase 3 preliminary results out.
81% effective.

OCGN up 25% pre-market

Make that 35% now!! Nice jump...

cronos

pioneerpro wrote: »

HZON apparently picked up SportRadar last night - that's an *incredibly* hot backend play, pivotal to things like Flutter entertainment (PP, Betfair etc...) breaking the US sports-gambling market. Will be interesting to see the market reception - if it doesn't do significant numbers today then the SPAC market is still (temporarily) fairly depressed beyond the redemption of any one SPAC. Trading at about $12 from ~$10.15 in premarket.

Very tempting. Might be a little sell off early to take profits, might jump in if that happens. Even at this price though you would imagine it has a decent chance. Although valuations matter more now, so not so sure about the 10 bill figure. Could be viewed as too much for it.

pioneerpro

On the OCGN play 2x Medical plays for consideration/anyone who can give some input


KMPH got FDA approval in the early hours of the morning for ADHD; low valuation and huge addressable market.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kempharm-announces-fda-approval-azstarys-043100312.html

Novo Nordisk is seeking U.S. marketing approval for 2.4 mg semaglutide for chronic weight management. Lancet Article this week. Huge addressable market again
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-weight-loss-drug-patients-diabetes.html

In terms of COVID stuff I'm still waiting on NeuroRx/RLF's 60 day trials but have a small position.

pioneerpro

cronos wrote: »

Very tempting. Might be a little sell off early to take profits, might jump in if that happens. Even at this price though you would imagine it has a decent chance. Although valuations matter more now, so not so sure about the 10 bill figure. Could be viewed as too much for it.

Rumour rather than a DA mind, but a Bloomberg rumour so pretty certain. Be interesting to see reaction in any case.

Atlas_IRL

Lots of people have got burnt on the 4 or so spacs that they think were getting sportsradar.

bish76

pioneerpro wrote: »

On the OCGN play 2x Medical plays for consideration/anyone who can give some input

In terms of COVID stuff I'm still waiting on NeuroRx/RLF's 60 day trials but have a small position.

The big gap in OCGN vaccine is commercialisation. As it stands governments in developed world have already locked in deals with Pfizer, AZ and Moderna that is multiple of population. And Bharat Biotech is responsible for commercialisation in developing world. J&J one dose is convenient and holds a better chance at this stage.

pioneerpro

bish76 wrote: »

The big gap in OCGN vaccine is commercialisation. As it stands governments in developed world have already locked in deals with Pfizer, AZ and Moderna that is multiple of population. And Bharat Biotech is responsible for commercialisation in developing world. J&J one dose is convenient and holds a better chance at this stage.

The bigger problem (from a stock speculation point of view, not a moral one!!!) is the fact that the vaccine manufacturers are often legally prevented from taking significant profit from them - and even then the likes of J&J priced the vaccine on a not-for-profit basis, defined by a Gates Foundation model and determined in conjunction with independent auditors.

The RLF play I cited isn't a vaccination play, but is rather about the treatment of critically ill COVID patients, with particular efficacy in freeing up hospital beds in critical care units and ICUs ~10 days before the median, so is a bit more viable for a spike if it gets the EUA from the FDA.

cronos

pioneerpro wrote: »

Rumour rather than a DA mind, but a Bloomberg rumour so pretty certain. Be interesting to see reaction in any case.

The CCIV one worked out so I'm fairly trusting of these rumours. Not so trusting of the valuations though. I've a bid in that I don't expect to fill at 10.5 just incase.

pioneerpro

cronos wrote: »

The CCIV one worked out so I'm fairly trusting of these rumours. Not so trusting of the valuations though. I've a bid in that I don't expect to fill at 10.5 just incase.

Yeah all SPACs talk absolute muck about their growth and 'estimated' EBITDA - they're not remotely bound by the same rules as IPOs and DPOs, FRX was the best case in point of that in recent times. The max they can get off SportRadar without a PIPE is like ~5-7% IIRC.

bish76

pioneerpro wrote: »

The bigger problem (from a stock speculation point of view, not a moral one!!!) is the fact that the vaccine manufacturers are often legally prevented from taking significant profit from them - and even then the likes of J&J priced the vaccine on a not-for-profit basis, defined by a Gates Foundation model and determined in conjunction with independent auditors.

The RLF play I cited isn't a vaccination play, but is rather about the treatment of critically ill COVID patients, with particular efficacy in freeing up hospital beds in critical care units and ICUs ~10 days before the median, so is a bit more viable for a spike if it gets the EUA from the FDA.

Yep, fully agree. This will attract high price tag once approved.

Nemeses2050

Anothey red day, Pre-market was up nicely until the last half hour.

contemplating selling Hammerson and the balance of IAG to raise some cash - both have risen nicely in the last few weeks and see a pull back for them...Am I picking the wrong ones.

GoldFour4

MILE absolutely tanking the last week or so for me. I’m in since before the transfer to MILE so I’m still up overall at least - albeit DEGIRO is showing a hefty unrealised loss with the change in ticker!

Bacchus

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Anothey red day, Pre-market was up nicely until the last half hour.

contemplating selling Hammerson and the balance of IAG to raise some cash - both have risen nicely in the last few weeks and see a pull back for them...Am I picking the wrong ones.

Not sure about selling off IAG. They've been on a great run alright but they're still way off their pre-COVID price. I expect more ups and downs with them but more up than down, especially as we get more good news RE opening up.

crushproof

Portfolio down 15%, another red day. Only greens this week have been FTSE stocks, not much luck on the other side of the Atlantic.

Valhallapt

Its been the worst two weeks for me since March...

cronos

malistheman wrote: »

MILE absolutely tanking the last week or so for me. I’m in since before the transfer to MILE so I’m still up overall at least - albeit DEGIRO is showing a hefty unrealised loss with the change in ticker!

It's value was likely relative to lemonade. Lemonade is down 40 percent probably so is this.

wrestlemaniac

Where do people see this going, extended dip? I have got cash on the side ready to jump in, but thinking I will let this play out for the week

cronos

wrestlemaniac wrote: »

Where do people see this going, extended dip? I have got cash on the side ready to jump in, but thinking I will let this play out for the week

I've got most of my money on the sidelines. Not sure yet on when to get back in.