Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

piplip87

Look at the percip type chart on the GFS, has me buried under streamers from Tuesday till Wednesday and a chance of some frontal action on Thursday.

Also looking like Sunday night and Monday night could be cold, clear and frosty.

While not what I was hoping for. It will do the job lovely. I need the back yard to freeze over so I can get out and clean the dog poo, the other half will stop moaning about the mess the dogs leave after been in the swamp, and we get 2 possibly three snow days which will be a fantastic break from the rain and allow us to get out for a few walks with the kids and dogs.

Been cooped up these past few weeks has been extremely stressful.

BullBauld

BullBauld wrote: »

How far inland do you think the streamers will get... basically is Roscommon a possibility?

Some will make it all the way across the country
For Roscommon it depends on where in the Irish sea showers trains develop
I wouldn't be surprised to see them reach Athlone,so as that's on the Roscommon border,I would not be surprised if they reached into your coynty
Further south,I've heard,manhattan is complaining about the Aran Islands shadow:D

KingdomRushed

A few GFS ensembles blow up a low again over eastern England on Wednesday which has the nice effect of dragging exceptionally cold air in from eastern scotland all the way in over Ireland, bringing sub -12 uppers. Would love if such a scenario became more likely. The 6z ensembles are marginally delaying the mild air, perhaps by about 6 hours or so from the 0z. I think there is still time for changes yet. So much is dependent on the finest of margins of what happens in the western atlantic over Monday and Tuesday and how that low is shaped and its timing.

KingdomRushed

TheMilkyPirate

Shepards Delight wrote: »

Ya no mystic megs but it gives people false hopes so this thread even though i observe it and see what it is all about those models seem to change with a blink of an eye . So its better many of us stick to other platforms and it seems to be better to not look to more than 3 or 4 days ahead on any forecast we see . A week or 2 weeks ahead can and does change . Predictions are waste of time and people are wasting there own time by posting up predictions . Email mystic meg for a forecast maybe ��

This is the FI thread on a weather enthusiasts forum. If their is potential for snowy cold weather showing in the models for a week or two time we will talk about it and we will follow it as long as it is showing, when there are upgrades we get excited.

If people can't read between the lines and see this thread for what it is and not take everything written here as an exact forecast from the gospel of MET then that is on them and maybe like you said you would be better off on other platforms.

gerrybhoy

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Take it that's good(ish)

United road

KingdomRushed wrote: »

A few GFS ensembles blow up a low again over eastern England on Wednesday which has the nice effect of dragging exceptionally cold air in from eastern scotland all the way in over Ireland, bringing sub -12 uppers. Would love if such a scenario became more likely. The 6z ensembles are marginally delaying the mild air, perhaps by about 6 hours or so from the 0z. I think there is still time for changes yet. So much is dependent on the finest of margins of what happens in the western atlantic over Monday and Tuesday and how that low is shaped and its timing.

Pretty exciting times right now.
Model watching right now (im more watch the model watchers and listen to their considered opinion) is up and down over coming 10 days and possible extension to cold or reloads mentioned, and all the while some snow and cold on the way for 3 or 4 days while looking ahead.
Fantastic!
Whats not to like!

Kermit.de.frog

Shepards Delight wrote: »

Ya no mystic megs but it gives people false hopes so this thread even though i observe it and see what it is all about those models seem to change with a blink of an eye . So its better many of us stick to other platforms and it seems to be better to not look to more than 3 or 4 days ahead on any forecast we see . A week or 2 weeks ahead can and does change . Predictions are waste of time and people are wasting there own time by posting up predictions . Email mystic meg for a forecast maybe ��

I don't think the "event" thread has been that inaccurate. If you read the OP it may as well have been written today to all intents and purposes. The forecast really hasn't changed much if at all.

Some choose not to read the text and that's fine.

There is even a number of disclaimers included! :eek:

The whole purpose of this thread is model observations for the period ahead up to Day 5. Perfectly fine and no one that I can see is hyping up anything unreasonably.

Nqp15hhu

The details of cold spell are firming up. Air temperatures initially appear to be coldest in Ulster (because the sea track is shorter).

Highs of 1-2c here, maybe 3c in the SE. Up to 3-4c on the Eastern swathe of the island. Freezing levels between 200-300 metres. The rest of the island cools down to 1-3c on Monday.

There is a very limited diurnal range with temperatures only falling to -3c in the north west. I am not sure if this is down to wind strength or cloud, but it seems odd.

(I reckon -5/-6c could be achieved in some sheltered parts of Tyrone etc)..

Meteorite58

Models fairly tightly grouped with that area of LP off the SW on Tuesday, some showing it making it on to the coast giving some light wintry precipitation but very weak at best for now. A little nudge N and could get some snow out of it, might send in a trough or two. Looks quite breezy if not windy and fairly blustery on the coasts, would get a savage wind chill with that , feeling like -2 to -6C or there about during daylight hours.

space2ground1

How are the experts feeling about the 12h ECM today in terms of Monday - Wednesday this week? I'm hoping the quiet in the up to 120 tech thread is not a negative development?

Meteorite58

Cold onshore fresh breeze along Eastern coasts becoming more noticeable by tomorrow, getting fresh on Monday and penetrating inland, looks' like getting fairly windy across the country on Tuesday and would imagine that if there are snow showers they could be brought well inland. Thursday looking quite windy across the country, maybe not a yellow warning atm by itself but combined with the expected frontal snow will add to difficult conditions . ECM showing snowfall moving up from the SW/ S early Thurs. widespread snowfall with following rain in the SW and S but that is to be fine tuned over the coming days, ECM hasn't deviated much from this over the last few days.

Some very cold wind-chill readings, in general below 0C and well below on Tuesday and Thurs .

Kermit.de.frog

Good GFS this evening. Snow showers at times in the east and even sub -12c 850 hpa isotherm in to the Irish Sea.

TheMilkyPirate

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Good GFS this evening. Snow showers at times in the east and even sub -12c 850 hpa isotherm in to the Irish Sea.

And a 24 hour snowstorm on Thursday

Kermit.de.frog

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

And a 24 hour snowstorm on Thursday

The cold air hanging on in the east right through Friday. Major snow event alright.

nacho libre

Ah you are all here.:o What a fantastic run! It's almost too good to be true. I will be fearing a big downgrade come the run in the small hours

Neddyusa

How are the short-range models looking for Thursday or is it too soon yet?

BringBackMick

Off the phone with my uncle in law from Falcarragh he says it’s he know from the feel of the wind this evening that there are big snows ahead.

He said the field cats have scurried inside and are hiding inside the house due to the chill.

He’s been chopping wood all day!! Aunty Nora Has spent the day cooking bread and pies incase the electric goes! Full preparatory work in north Donegal today!

Donegal Storm

Neddyusa wrote: »

How are the short-range models looking for Thursday or is it too soon yet?

Arpege shows a messy marginal situation with the front breaking up over the midlands. Too early to take anything seriously yet though

Gonzo

Neddyusa wrote: »

How are the short-range models looking for Thursday or is it too soon yet?

too soon yet. I can see this going 3 possible ways.

1 - a snow to rain event with milder conditions everywhere by Saturday/Sunday with a rapid thaw of any lying snow.
2 - A snow to rain event for the south west and west, stalls over midlands or leinster, decent lying snow in many eastern, northern and midland areas and cold continental but dry conditions push it back out into the atlantic.
3 - The low side swipes Ireland and we remain mostly dry and cold with frost/fog becoming more of a problem into next weekend.

Tyrone212

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Arpege shows a messy marginal situation with the front breaking up over the midlands. Too early to take anything seriously yet though

I think most weather enthusiasts would have enough if Thursday goes pear shaped.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

too soon yet. I can see this going 3 possible ways.

1 - a snow to rain event with milder conditions everywhere by Saturday/Sunday with a rapid thaw of any lying snow.
2 - A snow to rain event for the south west and west, stalls over midlands or leinster, decent lying snow in many eastern, northern and midland areas and cold continental but dry conditions push it back out into the atlantic.
3 - The low side swipes Ireland and we remain mostly dry and cold with frost/fog becoming more of a problem into next weekend.

I think option 2 is most likely to happen. Option 3 would be ok, but no,no, to option 1

pad199207

nacho libre wrote: »

I think option 2 is most likely to happen. Option 3 would be ok, but no,no, to option 1

Indeed. If it’s definitely going to turn to all rain afterwards well then quite frankly it needn’t even snow to be honest.

Donegal Storm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

I think most weather enthusiasts would have enough if Thursday goes pear shaped.

I learned long ago not to get too invested in watching the models, whatever happens happens!

From what I have looked at the mild air breaks through even if there is a good dumping of snow so it'd likely be a slushy mess in no time. I'd still take that but it doesn't exactly look like the huge event the other thread seems to be building it up as

Kermit.de.frog

...

Kermit.de.frog

Shouldn't this thread be the one locked and the +120 open?

Danno

Taking onboard some of the suggestions, please post here for the next few days: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...p?t=2058157847

Locking this for a few days.

Gonzo

Mod note: I have decided to open this thread again since the cold spell is now coming to an end.

A big change is on the way to much milder conditions from Saturday evening.

Alot of wet weather to come over the next 4 to 5 days away from Dublin and the commuter belt. Looks very wet across southern, south-western and western areas with close to 100mm of rain in places.



Becoming very windy over the weekend and Sunday is looking rather nasty with strong gusts across the country.



Becoming much milder too with temperatures into double figures next week

Meteorite58

Staying breezy and getting windy again later Fri into Sat with the advancing front, possible warnings along Atlantic coasts.

Sunday looks very windy across the country, has pepped up a lot over the last few runs, one to watch, high end yellow currently in Atlantic coastal counties possibly straying into Orange territory along coastal fringes I would reckon..

Meteorite58

A rough wet day coming up on Sunday. Will feel relatively mild after the cold week getting up around 13C