FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

There was very little if any thaw in Dublin and the east for a number of days in 2018. It stuck around quite a long time from memory, it snowed relentlessly

It stuck around due to the abnormal amount and extremely low temperatures, but it was melting a little by day due to the strength of the sun. If that cold outbreak had occurred a few weeks earlier there would be no melting at all. Also temperatures would have been even lower. I like to see records challenged that why's a deep cold spell in the heart of winter is best from my perspective, but i would not turn my nose up at a re- run of March 2018!

Reversal

AuntySnow wrote: »

Too many times FI snowfests were on it that never verify is why I don't bother with it
We've basically had a Portugal bartlet for near a month now,my guess is that will retreat back to the azores before the pv is repaired
Ergo I'd expect the easterlies to drop another few hundred miles to where the 2018 ones were
At the rate of inching that does look like early February now but possibly sooner I'd expect
Hopefully not Easter:eek:

Like this?

Reversal

Reversal wrote: »

Like this?

Can't see that for some reason but this will do

JanuarySnowstor

The outlook refuses to upgrade and you have to say the chances of a proper cold spell are miles away tonight

The much spoken about SSW hasn't done anything for our shores and you would think Eastern Europe's cold was it!!
I just don't buy the opinion of a very small few that it has yet to hit.

Still February remains hopeful (maybe best month of Winter yet again)

What is it with Januarys for the last 20 years!
Even in 2010 January didn't perform!!

Reversal

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The outlook refuses to upgrade and you have to say the chances of a proper cold spell are miles away tonight

The much spoken about SSW hasn't done anything for our shores and you would think Eastern Europe's cold was it!!
I just don't buy the opinion of a very small few that it has yet to hit.

Still February remains hopeful (maybe best month of Winter yet again)

What is it with Januarys for the last 20 years!
Even in 2010 January didn't perform!!

January 2010 certainly did!





I really don't share the opinion that were miles away from anything cold. It may look that way if you take charts for our locale at face value without looking at the bigger picture.

JanuarySnowstor

Reversal wrote: »

January 2010 certainly did!

My memory of 09/10 was bitter cold just before Christmas day that lasted about 2 weeks. Maybe your right it possibly spilled in to early Jan. Following winter we got another blast very early was mid November from what I recall
Anyway leaving 2010 aside I think we all agree January has been remarkably bland

Rebelbrowser

Reversal wrote: »

January 2010 certainly did!

Yeah, assume he meant Jan 2011. On 10 Jan 2010 JS was making snowmen no doubt as a Biscay low stalled over Cork. Think it was Cork airport's deepest snow in over 30 years (at the time)

Reversal

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

My memory of 09/10 was bitter cold just before Christmas day that lasted about 2 weeks. Maybe your right it possibly spilled in to early Jan. Following winter we got another blast very early was mid November from what I recall
Anyway leaving 2010 aside I think we all agree January has been remarkably bland

The real deal arrived new year's eve. The first two weeks of Jan were cold and snowy. I think if it wasn't for December 2010, we'd talk about January 2010 still.

ZX7R

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The outlook refuses to upgrade and you have to say the chances of a proper cold spell are miles away tonight

The much spoken about SSW hasn't done anything for our shores and you would think Eastern Europe's cold was it!!
I just don't buy the opinion of a very small few that it has yet to hit.

Still February remains hopeful (maybe best month of Winter yet again)

What is it with Januarys for the last 20 years!
Even in 2010 January didn't perform!!

Polish instute of meteorological and water management don't agree.
They believe the down dwelling from the ssw hasn't started to affect modeling as of yet but should start to show early next week.
They said current weather patterns are not seeing an influence yet and are normal signals.
There outlook from starting the end of next week is for deepening of the Siberian cold into Eurasia and this in turn to shift westward into central and eastern Europe this is what they expect from the ssw first one and expect the effects of the second warming to be quicker to have an influence than the first split.

ElisaAtWar

Anyone got an explanation why Spain has been inundated with cold weather and snow. They live to the south of the jet stream so what happened? Normally Spain lives from winds that extend from Africa so this weather is a bit bizarre

Nqp15hhu

ElisaAtWar wrote: »

Anyone got an explanation why Spain has been inundated with cold weather and snow. They live to the south of the jet stream so what happened? Normally Spain lives from winds that extend from Africa so this weather is a bit bizarre

It’s mostly on a plateau with many parts 200 miles from the ocean. Meaning that winds don’t blow directly off the sea.

nacho libre

Another day 10 chart with potential, will our friend make it north, or will he be stopped by the low?

Reversal

nacho libre wrote: »

a day 10 chart with potential, will our friend make it north, or will he be stopped by the low?

It's certainly making some dash for that gap in the jet stream. Not too much left of the trop vortex over North America by day ten, that will give plenty opportunities for heights to migrate into favourable locales. The NH pattern really is very interesting imo. While locally it make look similar, this is no normal zonal set up.

JanuarySnowstor

nacho libre wrote: »

Another day 10 chart with potential, will our friend make it north, or will he be stopped by the low?

I think you answered your own question with the first line lol
We've been looking at day 10 potential now for the last 6 weeks!
Still time of course but right now the trend ain't our friend

M.T. Cranium

That Spanish snowfall was caused by a rare interaction between full-on arctic air reaching Spain at the same time that a strong Atlantic low was moving through the south with considerable moisture -- it turned out to be like a U.S. nor'easter in New York City or Boston on a weather map. Normally if they get a few cold days in Spain, which is fairly normal, the Atlantic has gone quiet or is overshooting a high in France. To be honest, I've never seen weather maps like the ones that occurred with the Madrid snowfall event although I'm sure it's happened once or twice before.

Back in the winter of 1899, Savannah GA and Charleston SC had a blizzard -- you can always find some extreme that is just about at the limits of any given climate zone. Further north, that might happen every five to ten years on average.

I've seen weather maps for all the big snowfall events since 1850 in Ireland and Britain, and they fall into two main groups. One would be strong east to northeast winds with enough deep cold air to produce major sea effect on a large scale. The other would be slow-moving low pressure areas circulating around the southern margins of deep cold over central and northern regions of Britain and Ireland. But with this strong low coming in off the Atlantic mid-week, it reminds me that in theory you could have a really strong low tracking a little further south than that, and could produce a storm like a U.S. nor'easter, over most of Britain and Ireland, if all the dynamics were just right. Whether that's ever actually happened or not, I don't think I've seen maps to illustrate it, but in theory no reason why not. That probably happened quite often in centuries before glacial advances, then it shifted even further south.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z showing some unsettled windy weather after next weekend around the Mon and Tuesday.

Jet fired up and in a good position for deep LP's or maybe a storm perhaps. Steep enough temperature gradient.

Will see over the coming days if anything comes of it.

Rebelbrowser

Further to MTs post this article mentions most of the big snow events of the last 200 years...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/snowstorms-through-the-centuries-a-history-of-irish-cold-snaps-1.3406525%3fmode=amp

Danno

ElisaAtWar wrote: »

Anyone got an explanation why Spain has been inundated with cold weather and snow. They live to the south of the jet stream so what happened? Normally Spain lives from winds that extend from Africa so this weather is a bit bizarre

The jet stream, while compared to a river or current is not fixed and defined like it's land based counterpart.

Furthermore, the jet can split into arms, i.e. northern arm of the jet and southern arm of the jet.

The northern arm of the jet dipped south of Iceland down past Ireland before bending eastwards and joining a strong southern arm of the jet racing through the Mediterranean.

This northern arm dragged cold air from Ireland and places further north down into Spain and with an Atlantic low (familiar to Ireland) bringing rain and winds into Iberia, this fell as heavy snow inland away from the seas.

The meeting of these two airmasses, caused a broad low pressure to enhance over Iberia and the western Med.

On the east side of the low warm air got pumped northeastwards out of Africa over to Greece to give them low 20s! while Spain shivered.

bazlers

Interesting post by RJS (Netweather)
The 1050 mb high north of Siberia has moved 17 deg west since 00z (142 to 125 E). Let's say that's a bit exaggerated by analysis error, and call it 10 deg in 18 hours -- that would bring it into the Kara Sea and near Franz Josef Land by late in the week. IIRC the 2018 beast from the east had its origins with high pressure moving southwest from Franz Josef Land. (for anyone who didn't know this, FJ Land is the cluster of islands east of Svalbard/Spitsbergen. It is Russian territory. Novaya Zemlya is the double island to the east of that closer to the Russian mainland. The New Siberian Islands are the archipelago just west of the current location of the high.

Any acceleration of this high would be a big player especially if the Poles are right about the delayed effects of the SSW.

Danno

bazlers wrote: »

Interesting post by RJS (Netweather)

RJS is MTC here if I am correct?

Nqp15hhu

bazlers wrote: »

Interesting post by RJS (Netweather)
The 1050 mb high north of Siberia has moved 17 deg west since 00z (142 to 125 E). Let's say that's a bit exaggerated by analysis error, and call it 10 deg in 18 hours -- that would bring it into the Kara Sea and near Franz Josef Land by late in the week. IIRC the 2018 beast from the east had its origins with high pressure moving southwest from Franz Josef Land. (for anyone who didn't know this, FJ Land is the cluster of islands east of Svalbard/Spitsbergen. It is Russian territory. Novaya Zemlya is the double island to the east of that closer to the Russian mainland. The New Siberian Islands are the archipelago just west of the current location of the high.

Any acceleration of this high would be a big player especially if the Poles are right about the delayed effects of the SSW.

It still appears to be quite some distances away from us. In fact from our position it appears to be over the poles, north of us.

Rebelbrowser

Danno wrote: »

RJS is MTC here if I am correct?

One and the same

Dickie10

AuntySnow wrote: »

I had snow on the farm here in March 2018 for over 3 weeks ,it never cleared
Thats a north easterly for you
Storm Emma's drifts were 10ft high
More blizzards on the 18th
I'm sure similar might evolve if the inching south of the current pattern continues

i always rememeber dreading what the thaw would be like after march 1-3 snowfall , i thiught there would be a ,mass of water, but i remember it went away very quickly and we actually got very little rain straight away, land dried out by late march. Was there a reason why we didnt have much water from that thaw?

Artane2002

Dickie10 wrote: »

i always rememeber dreading what the thaw would be like after march 1-3 snowfall , i thiught there would be a ,mass of water, but i remember it went away very quickly and we actually got very little rain straight away, land dried out by late march. Was there a reason why we didnt have much water from that thaw?

the snow was of the very dry variety, had it been wet snow then flooding would have been more of an issue.

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I've seen weather maps for all the big snowfall events since 1850 in Ireland and Britain, and they fall into two main groups. One would be strong east to northeast winds with enough deep cold air to produce major sea effect on a large scale. The other would be slow-moving low pressure areas circulating around the southern margins of deep cold over central and northern regions of Britain and Ireland. But with this strong low coming in off the Atlantic mid-week, it reminds me that in theory you could have a really strong low tracking a little further south than that, and could produce a storm like a U.S. nor'easter, over most of Britain and Ireland, if all the dynamics were just right. Whether that's ever actually happened or not, I don't think I've seen maps to illustrate it, but in theory no reason why not. That probably happened quite often in centuries before glacial advances, then it shifted even further south.

I thought that 1982 was similar to that, a deep low coming in from the south bringing in winds from the east.

This Wales online report said parts of Britain got 36 hours of the white gold.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/nostalgia/january-snow-1982-started-snowing-14127091

nacho libre

Our new favourite model the para looks interesting into February. Let's just ignore the bit i said about its accuracy past day 5:pac:

hatrickpatrick

nacho libre wrote: »

Let's just ignore the bit i said about its accuracy past day 5:pac:

I presume we all apply the same double standard as we do to FI in general, IE, if it's a good chart, "Sure how inaccurate can FI really be? There must be something to it" versus if it's a sh!te chart, "pah, it's just FI, it'll be completely different on the next run and we'll still get our snowmaggeddon"

I'll happily put money on pretty much every weather enthusiast having more or less the exact same attitude when it comes to chasing a particular event

John.Icy

The GFS para is fine. It's outperforming the current GFS OP at both day 5 and day 10 the last I saw (for whatever 'value' the verification stats provide, debatable in some minds). Beyond the 240h mark it's been very wild which I think had thrown people. Shouldn't really be paying too much attention beyond then either way though considering all models are struggling at Day 10 currently. ECM remains king at both points.

They've temporarily stopped the Para testing atm so runs are delayed (may go missing altogether!). I'd be surprised if they don't proceed with having it replace the OP in a few weeks time as planned considering it's performance.

compsys

John.Icy wrote: »

The GFS para is fine. It's outperforming the current GFS OP at both day 5 and day 10 the last I saw (for whatever 'value' the verification stats provide, debatable in some minds). Beyond the 240h mark it's been very wild which I think had thrown people. Shouldn't really be paying too much attention beyond then either way though considering all models are struggling at Day 10 currently. ECM remains king at both points.

They've temporarily stopped the Para testing atm so runs are delayed (may go missing altogether!). I'd be surprised if they don't proceed with having it replace the OP in a few weeks time as planned considering it's performance.

I kinda feel that any model past 240hrs is pretty much useless. It's the accuracy up to 120hrs that's most important IMO and then from 120-to 240hrs for trends.

Anything past that often feels like (albeit educated) guesswork.

When a model correctly picks up on a trend past 240hrs we'll all commend it, while forgetting all the times it got things completely wrong.

I actually wish the GFS was like the ECM and didn't go past 240hrs as there's so much clutching of straws, particularly in winter, as we peer into FI, hoping for things that never materialise.

Even today there's so much uncertainty over Wednesday's forecast - how can any model know what will happen in 15 days' time?

hatrickpatrick

This morning's ECM is interesting - it shows the West-based -NAO setting up, but then drifting back eastwards and weaking slowly from 192 onwards. I asked this a few pages ago, but while everyone dreads an ordinary Greenland high migrating West at this time of year, is it possible for the reverse to happen? The high is deepening as it migrates East, but the last frame also shows a very very slight intrusion of heights from the Atlantic to our West, towards Greenland - could the two features link up?