FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

bazlers

nacho libre wrote: »

Perhaps i am clutching at straws, but i would like to believe the GFS has it right initially, then loses the plot as it tends to do in FI. It looks promising enough around the 25th, but then the story of the winter so far unfolds. I would almost prefer if we had a strong polar vortex, as at least that way there would be no hope- its the hope that kills you!

I believe if the EC produces the good tonight and holds for tomorrows run we will be on to something. If we are going to get anything late next week to next weekend we should start to see a trend appearing.

munsterlegend

lostweekend3 wrote: »

You’re all so pessimistic in here! Keep the faith and don’t take what’s beyond 120 hours on GFS especially seriously. Confident there will be chances of snow and not just “hill snow” over the next few weeks. There is no raging Atlantic even though it is never truly dead.

Totally agree. Yes it’s not a raging Siberian easterly or a 1987/2010 scenario but there has been so much chopping and changing in the charts anything beyond 120/144 is still subject to a lot of change both good or bad from a cold perspective.

konman

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Yes please... the rest of the island did get a snow event last week...and a lot more severe frosts.

No snow event here. Not even falling snow in mid County Galway.

bazlers

Early days but i believe the models are starting to get to grips ( hopefully)Early days, see what tonight brings and if it follows through to the morning.

Billcarson

Next week looks like we will be going back to the cold rain and low level cold of the xmas period with a low to our north east. Well I would presume the similar kind of temps.

hatrickpatrick

Question: While a west based -NAO is often feared as a progression from a traditional -NAO, can the opposite happen? If a west based -NAO establishes itself, can it migrate eastwards and become a more traditional Greenland block in the same way that an attempt at a Greenland block can devolve into a west based -NAO?

Much higher pressure showing up at the end of the ECM, but it's unfortunately of the west based variety. Basically wondering if that could subsequently change into something more favourable for us, or it it's a one way street from Greenie block to West based?

Oneiric 3

ECM mean chart at 240hrs. This is something the GEFS has been showing for a number of runs lately for around this time.



While not great looking, it would suggest tha transient frontal (most probably wet) snow events are possible with this general broadscale pattern as head closer towards that time period.

Shepards Delight

There is nothing either good or bad . Thinking makes it so
Words from. William shakespeare long range
Forecasts are harder
The predictions are hard to predict .

JanuarySnowstor

On the cusp of major upgrades re this cold spell next week
I fully expect the models to finally grasp a much colder, wintry outlook by tomorrow!!

Davaeo09

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

On the cusp of major upgrades re this cold spell next week
I fully expect the models to finally grasp a much colder, wintry outlook by tomorrow!!

It's tomorrow or bust

Snowbiee21

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

On the cusp of major upgrades re this cold spell next week
I fully expect the models to finally grasp a much colder, wintry outlook by tomorrow!!

Why you think that?

jArgHA

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

On the cusp of major upgrades re this cold spell next week
I fully expect the models to finally grasp a much colder, wintry outlook by tomorrow!!

I love your optimism!

Snowbiee21

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Why you think that?

Probably thinking that because there's a lot going on that shouldn't be going on if what is going on wasn't going on

Snowbiee21

AuntySnow wrote: »

Probably thinking that because there's a lot going on that shouldn't be going on if what is going on wasn't going on

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM mean chart at 240hrs. This is something the GEFS has been showing for a number of runs lately for around this time.



While not great looking, it would suggest tha transient frontal (most probably wet) snow events are possible with this general broadscale pattern as head closer towards that time period.

I have all but given up on a sustained cold spell happening.
So i'd happily take even one decent snow fall at this stage, even it wont stick around for long. With this in mind I see the ec46, more or less tallies with the UK Met Office long range outlook. So maybe we will fall on the right side of the boundary at some stage in the next three weeks for a decent frontal event.

bazlers

Still evolving nicely, see if this pattern holds its favourable advances overnight.

NMB

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

On the cusp of major upgrades re this cold spell next week
I fully expect the models to finally grasp a much colder, wintry outlook by tomorrow!!

Think you got a look at the pub run early!! Slowly building upgrade.

Great model watching really interesting this winter.

Davaeo09

All aboard the next round of hype!

By this time Saturday we will know for sure :pac:

nacho libre

Not bad at all. I don't really want to look much beyond this point.

Dazler97

nacho libre wrote: »

Not bad at all. I don't really want to look much beyond this point.

I'd take that any day, as long as that low stays between Eastern England and Norway then we'd get northerly winds which wouldn't be bad at all

JanuarySnowstor

Tomorrow morning is the big one folks!
The 18z continues the trend back to a colder mid term.
Some of us have seen this a million times...A trend to have almost full support....dropped suddenly by all models....only to be picked up again a couple of days later. Usually when this happens it's full steam ahead!!

snowgal

I’m as always, aboard, the not aboard but board, boards train!

Arduach

Mid winter 15/16 January. Half a winter left.

An awful lot can change in 4 days or so. So enjoy the here and now don't waste your days wishing them away for an illusion on a chart. Whatever is going to happen will happen despite all our watching and wishing. Enjoy today and you just might be surprised before you realise. Life is too short for wishing a mild day away.

Donegal Ken

The end of the weekend will tell the tail coming into the end of next week. Should be within a better timeframe on Sunday. Can't see any severe cold across Ireland to end January. Most likely snow events will come from the south moving into cold air over the country.

Nqp15hhu

As long as highs are around 2 or 3c that should be enough for evaporative cooling to take hold.

Any higher and it will be marginal again.

lucernarian

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

As long as highs are around 2 or 3c that should be enough for evaporative cooling to take hold.

Any higher and it will be marginal again.

Generally you need 1 degrees or less to have a winter wonderland. Snow can fall at higher temps but in this context evaporative cooling is not really FI chart territory

bazlers

bazlers wrote: »

Still evolving nicely, see if this pattern holds its favourable advances overnight.

Yes i have just oiled up the rollercoaster and cleaned up the puke! Pattern holds well ( maybe upgraded at tad) 850s will start to decline as cold advances.(fingers crossed) we get the cold in for now see what happens next..definitely back in the game so in with a shout. Rollercoaster now half way up and climbing steadily : )

froog

Jeez this thread is like a rocky movie!

bazlers

froog wrote: »

Jeez this thread is like a rocky movie!

Oh yea and im sure we,l be on the canvas again ; ) still a full week off or more to the juicey stuff..

hatrickpatrick

ECM this morning shows the return of the dreaded West based -NAO and has the cold air missing us as a result. But, on its final frame, an interesting possibility of a link-up between the West Greenland high and a high pressure blob ejected poleward from the Northeast Pacific - notwithstanding the fact that FI charts are unlikely to verify right now, if these two blobs of higher pressure were indeed to link up, what sort of pattern would we be likely to see? There's a massive ridge also about to edge its way northward from the Pacific in the last frame as well: